Society/Culture A basic income for citizens.

[The Edukator]

Cool. And when her job gets automated/sent off shore, does that means she has stopped working hard or become less skilled?

You have no idea. Her job cannot be automated.

 

[Gough]

You have no idea. Her job cannot be automated.

What about the Holden workers in Adelaide plenty of whom through no fault of their won't see regular full time work again? Tough shit?

 

[The Edukator]

What about the Holden workers in Adelaide plenty of whom through no fault of their won't see regular full time work again? Tough shit?

it's an uncompetitive industry that should be phased out slowly.

And this idea might be totally flawed because it's just off the cuff but perhaps some of these workers could go into ship building given the new commitments to it?

 

[Todman]

Prefab units and houses have been around for a while with pick and mix options. I have no idea but suspect robotics already plays a part in the construction in the factory?

but when the buyer is a woman, who is bound to frequently change her mind (as we all do) you will still need tradies around.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Construction and no I dont even earn that much.. yet.

laughable. Just yesterday my partner got a promotion at her 'Big 4' firm because she puts in the extra hours, presents more professionally and has more experience/knowledge/skills than her peers despite being the same age.

SO, hang on - you're in the early days of your career, but you think you can point at everyone else and say they don't understand how Capitalism works?

I genuinely wonder how many of you anti capitalists actually work jobs that increasingly reward you for more experience, knowledge and hours worked. most likely your earning capacities have small to medium caps would be my guess.

There are some jobs where this is true. It is certainly not the case in a lot of jobs. If you one of the big business consultant companies then of course you are going to be fine for a long time, because business is around everywhere, and there are huge financial rewards for working out how to interact or get-around legislation (and I would say that there is far too much acceptance in corporate culture of management outsourcing their planning to these groups, but the consultant companies do suck up a lot of the best talent out of the Unis). Or if you are in Law, you will have a similar highly-competitive model which works, because the demand for that industry is predicated on a non-competitive element - the existence of laws for which you need expertise, time, and legal staff in order to interact with. These are highly-administrative environments and have the economies of scale to bankroll their selection of the best graduates.

But if you take the smallest side-step, into say Finance, there is a lot more risk. If Governments the world over didn't bail out the banks, then even Australia's 'big 4' banks would've been more exposed to the bad debt. The current Australian Government is protecting them still by refusing a Finance and Banking Royal Commission which would bring up a lot more problems in the industry and may alter the money-making practice as it currently stands. The current 'big 4' is insulated by government policy protecting them from take-over by OS banks. The banking crashes we had in the 80s and early 90s and the GFC all led to better outcomes for the big 4 due to government legislation. Because it's money and money makes the economy go round, they're somewhat protected. Yet you dismiss the car industry as 'uncompetitive', so you don't care that those workers have lost their jobs.

And as for saying they should go into ship building, we already had that industry, and there are some people pointing out that spending $50B on submarines might be a massive waste seeing as much-cheaper, unmanned submarine drones can now search for submarines - partially removing a key advantage.

 

[coerced]

Prefab units and houses have been around for a while with pick and mix options. I have no idea but suspect robotics already plays a part in the construction in the factory?

Beyond that - automated construction on site with advanced customisation. Think what 3D printing can do but at the house-to-skyscraper scale.

 

[kickazz]

http://m.smh.com.au/money/should-we-pay-everyone-a-universal-basic-income-20160606-gpcmba.html

SMH article giving an overview of pros and cons as well as some anecdotal outcomes of limited trials.

Not particular in depth, but worth reading or sharing with friends who you want to introduce the topic to.

 

[coerced]

You have no idea. Her job cannot be automated.

And what is her profession? Because it is the professional administration jobs that are at most risk from advances in natural language processing.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

I think the issue is sales ie you cant automate a machine flogging crap financial products to someone that they really shouldn't be buying!

There are already millions, if not billions, of ads online doing this. They automatically populate the local area based on your IP address, and say the 'recession is coming'. Or it's the automated comments-section spam or some video saying 'I make X amount of money from home' or 'This one trick made me a millionaire' or whatever. Of course you would probably agree that a recession is coming (there will be one eventually simply through the economic cycle) but these ads have been around since ~2010 and of course the design of all these things is to con them into parting with their $.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

There are already millions, if not billions, of ads online doing this. They automatically populate the local area based on your IP address, and say the 'recession is coming'. Or it's the automated comments-section spam or some video saying 'I make X amount of money from home' or 'This one trick made me a millionaire' or whatever. Of course you would probably agree that a recession is coming (there will be one eventually simply through the economic cycle) but these ads have been around since ~2010 and of course the design of all these things is to con them into parting with their $.

This is true but Meds is also referring to other soft skills. A company worth 500 million isnt going to engage an accounting firm based on a pop up ad.

Likewise a judge is not going to accept a legal argument from a robot, barristers will be needed (but solicitors could be a thing of the past pretty soon).

Creative and soft skilled industries, and obviously anyone directly involved in automation. These industries will last the longest.

Accountants, doctors, IT support, real estate agents, tradesmen, solicitors etc will disappear pretty quickly once the worm begins to turn. If your job involves a skill of some sort, one that takes repetition and knowledge to get good at... you are basically ****ed.

Bullshitters and creatives will inherit the earth.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

This is true but Meds is also referring to other soft skills. A company worth 500 million isnt going to engage an accounting firm based on a pop up ad.

Likewise a judge is not going to accept a legal argument from a robot, barristers will be needed (but solicitors could be a thing of the past pretty soon).

Creative and soft skilled industries, and obviously anyone directly involved in automation. These industries will last the longest.

Accountants, doctors, IT support, real estate agents, tradesmen, solicitors etc will disappear pretty quickly once the worm begins to turn. If your job involves a skill of some sort, one that takes repetition and knowledge to get good at... you are basically stuffed.

Bullshitters and creatives will inherit the earth.

Yes, there will always be a need for people's creativity. As mentioned a while ago, there is always a lot of talk about automation killing jobs, yet people end up working longer and longer. Manufacturing job losses here have meant manufacturing job gains in China and developing/third world countries. That's not to say I don't see that trend changing as tech really amps up.

My point was that 'sales' as a job is not insulated from the effect of automation. Given how often price point is the main sales tactic, then being able to remove most of your sales force and replace them with online options (e.g. using an iSelect type model, or just having '15% off it bought online') means being able to offer cheaper items. Sales jobs are definitely being lost.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Yes, there will always be a need for people's creativity. As mentioned a while ago, there is always a lot of talk about automation killing jobs, yet people end up working longer and longer. Manufacturing job losses here have meant manufacturing job gains in China and developing/third world countries. That's not to say I don't see that trend changing as tech really amps up.

My point was that 'sales' as a job is not insulated from the effect of automation. Given how often price point is the main sales tactic, then being able to remove most of your sales force and replace them with online options (e.g. using an iSelect type model, or just having '15% off it bought online') means being able to offer cheaper items. Sales jobs are definitely being lost.

I think you are confusing mechanisation with automation. We work longer hours and are more productive because of neoliberal economics combined with technological advancement.

Automation makes us redundant en masse.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

I think you are confusing mechanisation with automation. We work longer hours and are more productive because of neoliberal economics combined with technological advancement.

Automation makes us redundant en masse.

I think you're "confusing" what both were meant to mean - less need for humans. We work longer hours because we're competing for less roles per company. And because we want more money to take advantage of the easier, cheaper access we have to the world. Not sure if that's what you meant by "neoliberal economics"?

 

[VineyIsLORD]

I think you're "confusing" what both were meant to mean - less need for humans. We work longer hours because we're competing for less roles per company. And because we want more money to take advantage of the easier, cheaper access we have to the world. Not sure if that's what you meant by "neoliberal economics"?

That is neoliberal economics at work, yes.

To provide a real world example, take electronic transfers of money between institutions. Computing advances meant that these transfers became largely automated and consumer processed. Banks no longer need to recieve a written authority and have a staff member transfer the funds. So jobs that were based on transferring money between financial institutions or for bills were made redundant and no longer exist. That is automation.

Computing advances also meant bank staff could be far more efficient in providing customer service. Those jobs still exist but are now easier to perform so more people are able to perform them, but there are less jobs available, hence it led to mass off shoring of jobs, longer hours and lower pay. That is mechanisation.

At some point, using the advanced langauge software coerced was referring to, those customer service jobs will be made completely redundant via automation too.

Yes logically mechanisation should have meant less working hours for the same output and thats how it was sold to society. But in a capitalist economy it was always going to mean less staff performing more work. And as the work became less skilled it meant offshoring. The race to the bottom as always. But still, jobs exist.

Automation is far more challenging from a societal and economic point of view.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

That is neoliberal economics at work, yes.

To provide a real world example, take electronic transfers of money between institutions. Computing advances meant that these transfers became largely automated and consumer processed. Banks no longer need to recieve a written authority and have a staff member transfer the funds. So jobs that were based on transferring money between financial institutions or for bills were made redundant and no longer exist. That is automation.

Computing advances also meant bank staff could be far more efficient in providing customer service. Those jobs still exist but are now easier to perform so more people are able to perform them, but there are less jobs available, hence it led to mass off shoring of jobs, longer hours and lower pay. That is mechanisation.

At some point, using the advanced langauge software coerced was referring to, those customer service jobs will be made completely redundant via automation too.

Automation is far more challenging from a societal and economic point of view.

The impact is the same. Less people. Automation requires coding, design and maintenance. But, yes, I agree the upcoming impacts will be more substantial.

 

[Todman]

Automation makes us redundant en masse.

Automation frees up resources for other things.

 

[kickazz]

Automation frees up resources for other things.

What things? I think that is the whole question at the moment.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

The impact is the same. Less people. Automation requires coding, design and maintenance. But, yes, I agree the upcoming impacts will be more substantial.

The difference is its less people vs no people on the frontline.

The maintenance and design and coding requirements are about the same, and they will be crowdsourced because it produces hugher quality work for less money.

This could either be a fantastic leap forward for humanity or a giant leap backward. As a socialist im optimistic about the possibilities.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

What things? I think that is the whole question at the moment.

Creative work. Thinking. Education. Political engagement.

Or poverty. Crime. Religion.

 

[Todman]

What things? I think that is the whole question at the moment.

JFK
"We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard;"

 

[kickazz]

Creative work. Thinking. Education. Political engagement.

Or poverty. Crime. Religion.

I too have thought creative work could increase; it follows on naturally in the progression from subsistence through to higher needs and wants, and people will pay for it; the other three are important too but i can't see them affecting consumption much.

 

[kickazz]

JFK
"We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard;"

Great quote but doesn't really answer the question.

 

[MC Bad Genius]

Here's the link I mentioned a few pages back about what jobs are likely to be automated:

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/21/408234543/will-your-job-be-done-by-a-machine

It's obviously not super-scientific, but to suggest that automation won't make a massive difference to a large majority of people is head in the sand kind of stuff. I don't agree with some of the predictions (particularly the low chance of automation for teachers - education is due for a MASSIVE overhaul in the near future (a very complex topic worthy of it's own discussion) - and journalism - some of the automated news aggregators are getting VERY clever), but the overall trend is that the number of jobs taken over by Artificial Intelligence will increase exponentially as the AI technology itself increases exponentially.

So what happens for those people that have been made redundant through no fault* of their own? This is why the talk about a UBI is becoming more and more accepted. Sure, it's not popular enough to have won the referendum in Switzerland, but it's enough into the mainstream now that they actually held the referendum!

* By "no fault", I mean that they could be incredibly hard-working and driven, but might have made a "fault" in deciding what to study etc etc.

 

[The Edukator]

SO, hang on - you're in the early days of your career, but you think you can point at everyone else and say they don't understand how Capitalism works?

I prefaced my ship building idea saying it was just a thought, whether it has merit or not I do not know.

I can see from those around me that the better qualified ones (took work to get there) have better jobs and those that work harder at their job tend to be rewarded for it too.

SO, hang on - you're in the early days of your career, but you think you can point at everyone else and say they don't understand how Capitalism works?

There are some jobs where this is true. It is certainly not the case in a lot of jobs. If you one of the big business consultant companies then of course you are going to be fine for a long time, because business is around everywhere, and there are huge financial rewards for working out how to interact or get-around legislation (and I would say that there is far too much acceptance in corporate culture of management outsourcing their planning to these groups, but the consultant companies do suck up a lot of the best talent out of the Unis). Or if you are in Law, you will have a similar highly-competitive model which works, because the demand for that industry is predicated on a non-competitive element - the existence of laws for which you need expertise, time, and legal staff in order to interact with. These are highly-administrative environments and have the economies of scale to bankroll their selection of the best graduates.

But if you take the smallest side-step, into say Finance, there is a lot more risk. If Governments the world over didn't bail out the banks, then even Australia's 'big 4' banks would've been more exposed to the bad debt. The current Australian Government is protecting them still by refusing a Finance and Banking Royal Commission which would bring up a lot more problems in the industry and may alter the money-making practice as it currently stands. The current 'big 4' is insulated by government policy protecting them from take-over by OS banks. The banking crashes we had in the 80s and early 90s and the GFC all led to better outcomes for the big 4 due to government legislation. Because it's money and money makes the economy go round, they're somewhat protected. Yet you dismiss the car industry as 'uncompetitive', so you don't care that those workers have lost their jobs.

And as for saying they should go into ship building, we already had that industry, and there are some people pointing out that spending $50B on submarines might be a massive waste seeing as much-cheaper, unmanned submarine drones can now search for submarines - partially removing a key advantage.

One doesn't have to work for 20 years to know that hard work reaps rewards. The best paid of my peers are the ones that work hardest on themselves and their job whilst the ones who still go out and party are left lagging. This goes for all the older people I've sought out for advice and education as well.

if you work hard on yourself you'll bring more value to the hour worked and get paid for that value beyond just the hour worked itself.

 

[The Edukator]

And what is her profession? Because it is the professional administration jobs that are at most risk from advances in natural language processing.

It's analytical and numbers are not the be all and end all.