Academy Rorts - The 2025 Draft Thread

[dlanod]

The academies are more than equalisation. I listened to an interview with one of the GWS academy boys, he said in the northern states the academies are the only junior AFL pathway. No Coates talent league. No private school scholarships with ex-AFL player coaches. If the academies didn’t exist, the elite junior athletes wouldn’t be coming to AFL - and ultimately this is a huge part of the battle in AFL acceptance north of the Murray. Listen to Isaac Heeney, he says the same thing.
So to your point - we pay for our academies and get an equalisation measure in first dibs for the players they produce. But really for the AFL they are a “free” promotional tool in NRL markets.

The other mental thing is that those Qlders who get recruited to the Victorian private schools are held up as examples of academy eligibility rorts or failures.

The only reason those schools are looking at Sam Marshall and the likes is because of the academy. Without it highlighting these players on a national stage, those schools aren't going to be sending out scouts to U16s QAFL games to bring those players in.

 

[morsie]

The academy system is an equalisation measure. That’s it. Don’t care what anyone says but vic clubs are at an advantage because of the proportion of talent available in Victoria, where the GF is located and due to the fact they barely travel. That’s a massive bargaining chip for trading and keeping hold of players, not to mention performance benefits. That’s why Collingwood can play 8 grandfathers in their team and get away with it. That’s the point that journos like John Ralph can’t understand.

The points we have to pay for our own player investments should be proportionate to the quality of the player. That’s the only issue and it has been adjusted already. I’m fine with that. Clubs actually bidding on players when they should might also make a difference.

But on what planet would the Brisbane Lions willingly become a farm for young talent that is meant for the rest of the comp. Mind you, there is handy academy talent running around for other clubs. The AFL is not funding our academies, and won’t. They need a lot of money to prop up clubs like st Kilda and north.

The Ashcrofts were father sons also. So St Kilda’s ability to draft them has no relevance to the northern academies they wish to abolish. Unless they also want the father son rule destroyed.

Swann pointed out that the V ic clubs have a much larger portion of their lists from their home state than do the Northern clubs. We can revisit academies when it evens up.

 

[Viceregal]

Swann pointed out that the V ic clubs have a much larger portion of their lists from their home state than do the Northern clubs. We can revisit academies when it evens up.

Maybe they could set up an arrangement where you get a kind of a bonus to help you retain players if you have more that a certain percentage of players on your list from a different state ... everyone has access to no one would have an issue with that right?

 

[briztoon]

The other mental thing is that those Qlders who get recruited to the Victorian private schools are held up as examples of academy eligibility rorts or failures.

The only reason those schools are looking at Sam Marshall and the likes is because of the academy. Without it highlighting these players on a national stage, those schools aren't going to be sending out scouts to U16s QAFL games to bring those players in.

I thought Marshall was recruited on the back of his U15 SSA performances. He was already at Sandringham and represented Vic Metro in the U16 championships.

 

[Morbidly_Obese]

Are there any decent ruckmen we can draft in the later rounds this year?

 

[morsie]

Are there any decent ruckmen we can draft in the later rounds this year?

Surely the Sawns have someone in their VFL side who they have overlooked going on past performance.I know it's not a draft choice but there have been rich pickings there.

 

[Perrip]

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Under 16s playing the Suns right now.

 

[briztoon]

Prindable getting a run.

 

[Clarkythelion]

In our week off, I was scooting around looking at the odds of picking a good player in the draft. Found this.

Pick 11 is the value pick you want

 

[Sproj]

In our week off, I was scooting around looking at the odds of picking a good player in the draft. Found this.

Pick 11 is the value pick you want

View attachment 2354079

6 and 9 though, trade at all costs.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

In our week off, I was scooting around looking at the odds of picking a good player in the draft. Found this.

Pick 11 is the value pick you want

View attachment 2354079

We can see the whole top 5 is relatively productive, because these are the blue chip prospects, and talent and risk identification at that level has got better and better over time. The next 5 have a lesser hit rate, which also makes sense as they're less rated prospects and there's more risk. But I'd expect a continuous decrease as picks go on, it's bizarre that the 11-13 range has been so productive.

 

[mpal6]

In our week off, I was scooting around looking at the odds of picking a good player in the draft. Found this.

Pick 11 is the value pick you want

View attachment 2354079

Bailey will fix 15 one day.

 

[Clarkythelion]

We can see the whole top 5 is relatively productive, because these are the blue chip prospects, and talent and risk identification at that level has got better and better over time. The next 5 have a lesser hit rate, which also makes sense as they're less rated prospects and there's more risk. But I'd expect a continuous decrease as picks go on, it's bizarre that the 11-13 range has been so productive.

We have probably done alright in that range

Jasper Fletcher at pick 12
Zac Bailey at 15
Hipwood at 14
Sam Doherty at 12
Ash McGrath at 13
Shane O'Bree at 10

and then back in 1995 Andrew Gowling - No Games

 

[Section 5]

When you compare the AA % to average games played pick 6 certainly stands out as maybe one to avoid.

However, looking at the last 10 years it has been okay.
Francis (81), Petrevski-seton (121), J Stephenson (122), B King (108), McAsey (10), Granger-Barras (28), J Rachele (67), B Humphrey (53), R Sanders (27) H Langford (13)


Below from Draft guru

AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number​

Club	Drafts	Avg Games
National Draft pick 1	41 drafts	160.3 avg games
National Draft pick 2	41 drafts	141.4 avg games
National Draft pick 3	41 drafts	137.2 avg games
National Draft pick 4	41 drafts	112.0 avg games
National Draft pick 5	41 drafts	130.3 avg games
National Draft pick 6	41 drafts	69.7 avg games
National Draft pick 7	41 drafts	124.6 avg games
National Draft pick 8	41 drafts	105.0 avg games
National Draft pick 9	41 drafts	109.8 avg games
National Draft pick 10	41 drafts	98.4 avg games
National Draft pick 11	41 drafts	104.7 avg games
National Draft pick 12	41 drafts	91.6 avg games
National Draft pick 13	41 drafts	117.4 avg games
National Draft pick 14	41 drafts	94.4 avg games
National Draft pick 15	41 drafts	83.4 avg games
National Draft pick 16	41 drafts	92.1 avg games
National Draft pick 17	41 drafts	77.4 avg games
National Draft pick 18	41 drafts	89.6 avg games
National Draft pick 19	41 drafts	99.0 avg games
National Draft pick 20	41 drafts	73.4 avg games
National Draft pick 21	41 drafts	69.0 avg games
National Draft pick 22	41 drafts	49.4 avg games
National Draft pick 23	41 drafts	56.3 avg games
National Draft pick 24	41 drafts	78.9 avg games
National Draft pick 25	39 drafts	70.1 avg games
National Draft pick 26	39 drafts	78.6 avg games
National Draft pick 27	39 drafts	68.1 avg games
National Draft pick 28	39 drafts	59.4 avg games
National Draft pick 29	39 drafts	88.4 avg games
National Draft pick 30	39 drafts	66.2 avg games

 

[morsie]

Hopefully picks in the top 10 will not be available to us for many years,father son academy picks excepted

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

When you compare the AA % to average games played pick 6 certainly stands out as maybe one to avoid.

However, looking at the last 10 years it has been okay.
Francis (81), Petrevski-seton (121), J Stephenson (122), B King (108), McAsey (10), Granger-Barras (28), J Rachele (67), B Humphrey (53), R Sanders (27) H Langford (13)


Below from Draft guru

AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number​

Club	Drafts	Avg Games
National Draft pick 1	41 drafts	160.3 avg games
National Draft pick 2	41 drafts	141.4 avg games
National Draft pick 3	41 drafts	137.2 avg games
National Draft pick 4	41 drafts	112.0 avg games
National Draft pick 5	41 drafts	130.3 avg games
National Draft pick 6	41 drafts	69.7 avg games
National Draft pick 7	41 drafts	124.6 avg games
National Draft pick 8	41 drafts	105.0 avg games
National Draft pick 9	41 drafts	109.8 avg games
National Draft pick 10	41 drafts	98.4 avg games
National Draft pick 11	41 drafts	104.7 avg games
National Draft pick 12	41 drafts	91.6 avg games
National Draft pick 13	41 drafts	117.4 avg games
National Draft pick 14	41 drafts	94.4 avg games
National Draft pick 15	41 drafts	83.4 avg games
National Draft pick 16	41 drafts	92.1 avg games
National Draft pick 17	41 drafts	77.4 avg games
National Draft pick 18	41 drafts	89.6 avg games
National Draft pick 19	41 drafts	99.0 avg games
National Draft pick 20	41 drafts	73.4 avg games
National Draft pick 21	41 drafts	69.0 avg games
National Draft pick 22	41 drafts	49.4 avg games
National Draft pick 23	41 drafts	56.3 avg games
National Draft pick 24	41 drafts	78.9 avg games
National Draft pick 25	39 drafts	70.1 avg games
National Draft pick 26	39 drafts	78.6 avg games
National Draft pick 27	39 drafts	68.1 avg games
National Draft pick 28	39 drafts	59.4 avg games
National Draft pick 29	39 drafts	88.4 avg games
National Draft pick 30	39 drafts	66.2 avg games

I'd quite like to see draft pick positions and their median number of years on an AFL senior list as well.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Surely it's driven by draft strategy. Given especially pre expansion the clubs in the same position tend to take different risks and certainly players drafted to weaker clubs might get earlier development while some positions club might be more likely to take risks

 

[Viceregal]

We can see the whole top 5 is relatively productive, because these are the blue chip prospects, and talent and risk identification at that level has got better and better over time. The next 5 have a lesser hit rate, which also makes sense as they're less rated prospects and there's more risk. But I'd expect a continuous decrease as picks go on, it's bizarre that the 11-13 range has been so productive.

11-13 is where the bottom of the eight pick (in a standard draft) so maybe being part of a better system but not held out by so many better established players?

 

[Section 5]

We won the premiership in 2001.

The worse draft season by any club is Brisbane in 2001

Pick 19 J Gram, 35 J Wright, Rookie pick 16 Darren Bradshaw Rookie 66 N Raines

Jason Gram went on to play another 154 games for the Saints

#	Year	Players	Total	Club Games Avg	Over 200 games	Over 150 games	Over 100 games	Over 50 games	Under 50 games	Under 10 games
1	2001 Brisbane	4	3	0.8						Jason Gram (2) Darren Bradshaw (1) Jarrad Wright (0) Nick Raines (0)
2	2003 Sydney	7	19	2.7					Tim Schmidt (17)	Aaron Rogers (2) Josh Willoughby (0) Andrew Ericksen (0) Matthew Davis (0) Luke Taylor (0) Nick Potter (0)

The Best season bu any club is

 

[HereIGoAgain]

Impressive performance from Annable. He just dragged the Allies team over the line against WA. Future Lions captaincy potential, all going well.

 

[Tom14]

Impressive performance from Annable. He just dragged the Allies team over the line against WA. Future Lions captaincy potential, all going well.

Interesting to see where Patterson is bid on. On pure football from what I’ve seen he’s right around the top 5.

 

[Miller1971]

They've even tried that already with guys like McCartin and Billings!

to be fair, we wouldn't have predicted the concussion issues. McCartin was destined for stardom and wasn't a bad pick with the info available at the time.

Some busts are bad decisions, some are bad luck.

I would put McCartin in the bad luck category along with the likes of Collingwood taking Scharenberg who would have been a star, Nathan Freeman another one and Freo with Anthony Morabito who I reckon would have been a genuine gun had injury not wrecked him. Hope I'm wrong for the kids sake, but Jagga Smith could be on this path.

 

[Tom14]

to be fair, we wouldn't have predicted the concussion issues. McCartin was destined for stardom and wasn't a bad pick with the info available at the time.

Some busts are bad decisions, some are bad luck.

I would put McCartin in the bad luck category along with the likes of Collingwood taking Scharenberg who would have been a star, Nathan Freeman another one and Freo with Anthony Morabito who I reckon would have been a genuine gun had injury not wrecked him. Hope I'm wrong for the kids sake, but Jagga Smith could be on this path.

As bad as they are I think ACL's are less of a career death knell unless you do them repeatedly. Scharenberg had a degenerative knee issue I think, Freeman could barely move without doing a soft tissue injury.

From memory I think there was pretty clear consensus in 2014 that Petracca was the best player, but the Saints went with a key forward instead. A tough one given you can't predict concussion issues.

 

[Nuggo]

Don't think a club that has picked a key position player at pick 1 has won a flag in the last 25 years with that player in it. KPP + Pick 1 = Bad JuJu.