Adagio's Needs-based Phantom Draft - with explanations

[DizzyHB]

From a WC perspective, hopefully this happens. I've got a bit of manlove going for Bastinac and anything that helps him slide to us at 22 I'm all for. Plus it might mean Freo take Fitzpatrick out of our hands, as they have to go tall with their 2nd pick.

Despite our desperate need for KPP's, if Fitzpatrick was the only one left out of the higher rated KPP's I'd rather go for another midfielder. We can't afford anymore poorly skilled players in our team.

We still need quality midfielders as well, preferably inside midfielders with good skills.

I'm hoping we'll also go for Houghton and Luff later on in the draft.

 

[SweetLeftFoot]

Good draft, though I reckon if Panos was still around at 25, we'd take him.

 

[adagio]

I would think if collingwood had the choice between Panos and Thomas they would go for Panos. We need a forward who can kick straight unlike Cloke and Panos can definitely kick straight

I knew Collingwood needed KPF's, and I considered Panos briefly. But IMO there's not enough room for both him and John Anthony in the same team. Both undersized, one-dimensional KPF's. I felt if you were to go for a KPF, you'd need more of big-bodied, high-marking type player, which is why I originally picked Hill.

But the top of Collingwood's list - before midfielders and KPF's - was "best available", and they seem to really rate Thomas's ability, so I went with him.

In response to both yourself and the Kangas posters, Panos is really difficult to place. Where he goes depends very much on which recruiters rate him, and we just don't know who that is. I agree that he'd be a good fit for North though, and it would add a bit of variability to their picks.

 

[adagio]

Despite our desperate need for KPP's, if Fitzpatrick was the only one left out of the higher rated KPP's I'd rather go for another midfielder. We can't afford anymore poorly skilled players in our team.

We still need quality midfielders as well, preferably inside midfielders with good skills.

I'm hoping we'll also go for Houghton and Luff later on in the draft.

Yeah fair point. I suppose as I've only done the first two rounds I forgot about all the later picks you have. Those two guys you mention are good options too.

Fitzpatrick is really hard to place - I don't like him, but if he fulfills his potential he could be the best player from the draft. Where he goes depends on who's willing to take the punt.

 

[adagio]

Personally i think the difference between Butcher and Black is > than Tapscott and players you've listed available to us at 16 such as Shepperd, Stevens and Gysbert. In fact if u tell me we pick up Butcher, Lucas and Stevens im freakin wrapped. Like i said with your selections, if Butcher gets nabbed at 5 or 7 (cant see Sydney taking him with White and probably Bradshaw coming in) then yup i'd be all over Tapscott and Lucas like a rash.

Butcher, Lucas & Stevens and i give us an A
Lucas, Tapscott and Black i give us maybe a B+

Another well-reasoned post. It's certainly a lineball call, and very subject to personal opinion. Port have tended to go local, and Tapscott is there.. I duno, there was something nostalgic about it.

Your scenario could very well happen.

 

[adagio]

Shocking draft for Westcoast. Gysberts and Fitzpatrick? looks like something we would pull out of the late 90's.

Fyfe, Colyer and Duncan all still available. Sure it's different but it makes little towards upward of no sense, we dont need Fitzpatrick or Gysberts, we need forward potency and our recruiters have made this pretty bloody clear.

You read my OP right? It's based on needs and approximate draft rankings.

West Coast's needs are, in order:
Crumbers with high defensive pressure
Classy midfielder
Versatile KP prospect
Medium forwards

I really believe we have to go tall with one of our picks, and others evidently agree. The continued replenishment of our midfield - in a "midfielder's draft" - is also a priority. Gysberts is pretty highly rated, so I'd be interested to know why you're not keen him.

Your post implies that we should, ideally, walk away from the draft with Jetta plus two of Colyer, Duncan and Fyfe. That's going very small. Fair enough if you think one of those is better than Gysberts (though Gysberts' draft rating was easily higher than the lot of them), but we have to go tall at some point.

Maybe, overall, the best strategy is take Butcher at 7 and then go small, seeing all the high quality KP's are likely to be gone by pick 22. But, according to strict needs, we're taking Jetta at 7. Trust me, I hope it's not Fitzpatrick either. But his draft rating is 10-35, and he is versatile. He fitted the bill.

 

[SweetLeftFoot]

In response to both yourself and the Kangas posters, Panos is really difficult to place. Where he goes depends very much on which recruiters rate him, and we just don't know who that is. I agree that he'd be a good fit for North though, and it would add a bit of variability to their picks.

Fair enough. While we still need - as you correctly identify with Rohan - pacy classy outside mids, the KPF stocks at Arden St are quite low. And we have Sam Wright from last year's draft who showed quite a lot in his few games before injury - certainly that he can cut it at senior level - to come in as well as an outside mid.

I expect Hale to have a better year next year with better midfield service and a different game plan. Petrie is an outstanding KPF though just shy of elite - although he could make that jump next year - then there is Robbie Tarrant who has loads of talent, but is injury prone and has never played a senior game.

If we spent 25 on Panos, we'd effectively be trading Gibson for Panos and a late pick.

In a fwd line of

FF Campbell/Boomer Hale Panos
HF Thomas Petrie Warren/Jones

Panos would be getting the third best tall and would have quality alongside him.

Could see it working.

 

[morebeer]

Enjoyed readig this draft. OP did not profess any great knowledge of the players and kept it simple and logical.

I like the type of players picked for the bombers (not that I actually know if they are any good) but the type of players seems spot on.

FWIW I agree with the port poster, in that it is hard to see them not going best available kpf with one of their first 2 picks. Especially in this scenario where no other kpf's have been taken previously.

Port have invested heavily into their midfield in the last few years and I think they appear in pretty good shape in that department. You could even mount an argument that they should be taking kpp's with both of their first 2 picks, then go a mid at 16. But who really knows.

 

[Valli]

First round

8) Port Adelaide – Kane Lucas
Port could do with some A-grade midfielders, especially after Burgoyne’s switch. Lucas is certainly capable, and the Adelaide lifestyle will suit him more than the VM kids.

9) Port Adelaide – Luke Tapscott
Aside from elite midfielders, defensive-minded crumbers and KPF’s are on the menu for the Power. Tapscott is often described as a powerful midfielder with great disposal – so put a tick in the midfielder box. As a lead-up forward he’s also extremely dangerous, and has some ground-level presence too, so he’s a sort of compromised answer to each need. He’s best available and a SA kid – it just makes sense.


16) Port Adelaide – Aaron Black
With two A-grade mid/HF’s locked away, Port have to address their KPF stocks here. Black appears to have all the tools, and is often touted as a late first-round pick. Port also need crumbers and lock-down defenders, but they can be taken cheaply and KPF’s with the talent of this guy can’t. The fact that he crosses the Nullabor with Lucas is also a nice touch.

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[CharlieM]

I think for the first round most clubs will adopt best player available philosphy. However your selections seem to cater for both. I don't think Adelaide will go for Taylor, I don't know if they are true but I read on another thread he has Juve history which will result in the crows taking a wide birth. Having said that I still expect him to go top 20 based on other's opinions. I would love to see some footage of him if anyone has a thread they know please. My big slider prediction is Butcher to Geelong.

 

[swannies]

You read my OP right? It's based on needs and approximate draft rankings.

West Coast's needs are, in order:
Crumbers with high defensive pressure
Classy midfielder
Versatile KP prospect
Medium forwards

I really believe we have to go tall with one of our picks, and others evidently agree. The continued replenishment of our midfield - in a "midfielder's draft" - is also a priority. Gysberts is pretty highly rated, so I'd be interested to know why you're not keen him.

Your post implies that we should, ideally, walk away from the draft with Jetta plus two of Colyer, Duncan and Fyfe. That's going very small. Fair enough if you think one of those is better than Gysberts (though Gysberts' draft rating was easily higher than the lot of them), but we have to go tall at some point.

Maybe, overall, the best strategy is take Butcher at 7 and then go small, seeing all the high quality KP's are likely to be gone by pick 22. But, according to strict needs, we're taking Jetta at 7. Trust me, I hope it's not Fitzpatrick either. But his draft rating is 10-35, and he is versatile. He fitted the bill.

But wouldn't logic dictate you take the tall with 7? There seems a lot of even mids, but few KP's, so at 7, while everyone has their eyes on mids, you dive in and take best KPD, in the Eagles case, I believe, and that throws the rest of the draft into turmoil! Well, I dream, but I did like your reasonings and strategy, and I'm a fan of Gysberts, so I wouldn't be unhappy to see him in Eagles colours.

 

[adagio]

But wouldn't logic dictate you take the tall with 7? There seems a lot of even mids, but few KP's, so at 7, while everyone has their eyes on mids, you dive in and take best KPD, in the Eagles case, I believe, and that throws the rest of the draft into turmoil! Well, I dream, but I did like your reasonings and strategy, and I'm a fan of Gysberts, so I wouldn't be unhappy to see him in Eagles colours.

haha.. did you read my entire post swannies? Wayyy ahead of ya

I've never been a fan of posting your own "dream draft" for your club, especially the ones from posters that clearly don't know a thing. If I had to give mine though, after doing this phantom draft.. I'd definitely have Butcher at 7.

After those top 5 midfielders, you can pretty much throw a blanket over about the next dozen or so of them (Lucas and Melksham possibly excepted). I don't think there will be a huge wealth of difference between a mid taken at 8/9 and one taken at 22/23. But the quality of KPD's shallows out extremely quickly, and given the needs of the clubs (especially Freo with their pick 20), I can't see any of them getting to us.

With that in mind, our strategy should be obvious. Take Butcher at 7, the best available mid at 22 (one has to slide - start praying it's Bastinac) and probably a medium/small forward/wing option at 23, with any one of Duncan/Fyfe/Colyer good value options. In fact, if we pass on Jetta I can see Adelaide pouncing on him, which means we might end up with Taylor.

Butcher/Bastinac/Taylor. There's my dream draft. I feel so guilty...

 

[Watt a gun!]

Great draft! Probably best I have seen so far, due to the fact that it is closest to my own predictions I pretty much have the same top 12 with the exception of Cunnington and Rohan.

First real query though is Taylor to Adelaide? While no one doubts his obvious talent, often their are issues regarding his work-rate and I'm not sure if there is room for a player like that in a team coached by Neil Craig. Personally I have them taking Moore with that pick.

Another question, although I have read the thread on your clubs needs, why do St. Kilda feel they need a KPF? Reiwoldt and Kozchitzke are not old, and look to be forming a damaging parternship. McEvoy, although he looks to be developing into a ruckman can very capably play forward, and then they took Lynch with their first pick last year? I just couldn't see St. Kilda passing up Duncan if he was still available, but having said that it is really difficult to gauge which recruiters rates Panos and who doesn't

Once again great draft, with obvious thought and reasoning behind the picks! Good Work

 

[Anjahads]

Well done Adagio.Non biased towards your own team and well explained.

 

[goodie23]

32) St. Kilda – Matthew Panos
A big priority for the Saints is a KPF, especially after the recruitment of Lovett filled their “quick midfielder” team vacancy. Panos, an U18 AA full-forward, is surely the best

That'd make me very happy

 

[adagio]

Great draft! Probably best I have seen so far, due to the fact that it is closest to my own predictions I pretty much have the same top 12 with the exception of Cunnington and Rohan.

First real query though is Taylor to Adelaide? While no one doubts his obvious talent, often their are issues regarding his work-rate and I'm not sure if there is room for a player like that in a team coached by Neil Craig. Personally I have them taking Moore with that pick.

Another question, although I have read the thread on your clubs needs, why do St. Kilda feel they need a KPF? Reiwoldt and Kozchitzke are not old, and look to be forming a damaging parternship. McEvoy, although he looks to be developing into a ruckman can very capably play forward, and then they took Lynch with their first pick last year? I just couldn't see St. Kilda passing up Duncan if he was still available, but having said that it is really difficult to gauge which recruiters rates Panos and who doesn't

Once again great draft, with obvious thought and reasoning behind the picks! Good Work

Thanks mate

Yeah Moore could actually be a good fit for Adelaide, not a bad call..

Taylor is my first 'smokey' if you like, and it's based on a few things:
1) Adelaide's main list requirement is a bit of freakish, X-factor talent in the forward line, in the mould of Motlop
2) Taylor fulfils this requirement. He is said to have freakish ability. At 188cm, he's also a perfect replacement for the Birdman when he moves on.
3) 13 is very much within Taylor's draft range, which is 8-25 according to Matt Burgan ("..looks set to be claimed in the top 25, with the first-round certainly in the mix.")
4) Rendell has recently developed a reputation for pulling some left-field selections in the first round. Phil Davis last year, Dangerfield the year before. The fact it doesn't conform to popular opinion kind of makes it more likely, if you know what I mean
5) Adelaide is an extremely professional club, and I reckon they'll be very confident they can get the best out of Taylor (on and off field). Out of all the clubs, I'm hard-pressed to think of a better environment for him.
6) Building on point 5 - he's a NT kid (Alice Springs) and it's inevitable he'll have to relocate. A move to Adelaide is pretty much best case scenario for him.


For me, all the pieces fit. Hopefully from a selfish point of view this doesn't occur because I want him at WC, but something tells me he'll be in Adelaide colours come draft day.


On the KPF for St.Kilda thing, maybe goodie23 can fill you in?
Riewoldt and Kosi aren't veterans but they're not young either. KPF's take a while to develop and I think they want some talls coming through for when they do move on. Plus a bit of depth in case one goes down. But, as I said, hopefully a Saints fan can shine some light on it.

 

[swannies]

haha.. did you read my entire post swannies? Wayyy ahead of ya

Butcher/Bastinac/Taylor. There's my dream draft. I feel so guilty..

Yeah, I did read adagio and sorry for coming across negative, didn't mean that.

As to dream draft, I'm an unabashed Talia admirer, so I'd like him at 7, gives us a very decent CHB/utility that understands football.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I'd definitely have Butcher at 7.

Not sure how you can fit Kennedy and Butcher in the same forward line, also that Wilson guy seems fairly decent.

 

[adagio]

Not sure how you can fit Kennedy and Butcher in the same forward line, also that Wilson guy seems fairly decent.

Quite easily. Butcher at FF, Kennedy at CHF.

Wilson is by no means a long-term solution. I personally don't rate him at all. On the Eagles board there is even a poll on whether he'll make it to 50 games - half think he will, half think he won't.



Swannies - you actually didn't come across as negative to me, though I would've welcomed your opinion regardless. Talia's an interesting one. If we called his name out come draft day I wouldn't be upset, but I don't think he's worth pick 7. Anywhere between 11-18 is more his value IMO.

If he was in last year's draft he would have been a late 2nd-rounder at best.

 

[willoblue]

nice work
one of the better ones going around
hope Freo take Morabito & 2 or 3 out of Taylor, Black (not much chance i suppose), Houghton & Luff
i watched the WAFL colts gf & was impressed by a player called Neates. does anybody know if he is he eligible for the draft?

 

[adagio]

Yeah Neates has developed a bit of a following on here, give his name a search I think there might be a thread on him somewhere. He makes Colyer look tall though.

I'm sure you'll end up with at least one of Houghton/Luff/Black. Freo need KP's and badly. They'll snap up Black if gets to them at 20, and at least one of the other two should be around at 48/49.

I'll probably do a 3rd round at some point actually.

 

[Axel.]

I'd love Colyer at Brisbane and Bartlett
Nice predictions.