AE AE14 Launch & Discussion

[exe ex machina]

UPDATE WEEK 13

 

[exe ex machina]

UPDATE WEEK 13

HIGH ROLLER SWEEPSTAKES

W01 - jeffdunne (108)
W02 - imation (84)
W03 - bloods_33 (124)
W04 - arakaan (78)
W05 - osmodiar (112)
W06 - beinpurplengreen (107)
W07 - woodson (107)
W08 - larkis (104)
W09 - boknows34 (83)
W10 - chris25 (83)
W11 - striker475 (81)
W12 - striker475 (119) +7 Bonus
W13 - sblack (119)

 

[exe ex machina]

UPDATE WEEK 13

Week 13 Evictees
Balmainforever - 70
Galactic - 82
Twarby - 83
Island_Bomber - 83
tannehill17 - 85
Matty_897 - 85

 

[Papa Juggs]

Ha ha. Sucked in.

Don't bet against those Phins.

Well on the road to being a good team. Too bad the bad players nearly lost it.

****ing Hartline, doesn't do enough.

 

[Woodson]

There may seem a big discrepancy from 2nd to 6th in the Charles Haley Conference and over time you'd look back at this scorecard and think that the Honey Badger flopped badly with a dismal score of 70 but the REALITY is:
Balmainforever had his WCQ ticket in his top pocket ripped up by NICK 'the choke' FOLK… he missed not once but TWICE in the Jets heartbreaking 16-13 loss where the Jets led for most of the game. 'Fins kicker also missed a 40+ FG attempt early in the game. Most pivotal moment was inside six minutes remaining and a 45 yard attempt bending to just squeeze out from the left upright. That would of given the Jets a 16-13 lead. The 'Fins passing and running game was well contained. Jets rushed for 200 yards more than the 'Fins. Jets unable to hurt the 'Fins on the scoreboard late in the third Q when Tannehill was intercepted at midfield and Jets forced to punt. The Honey Badger put up 15CR on the Jets while Island Bomber had 1CR on the Jets, to try squeeze past Superfreak who eventually reeled in 15CR on the snapperheads. Both Balmainforever & Island Bomber would of avoided the DZE drop had Jets hung on. JeffDunne gave up a six point start, picked the Chiefs against the Broncos and had enough CR to rally with the 'Fins to clinch the last Wildcard. TCol had already secured his Wildcard before MNF kicked off with Osmodiar & Arkie unable to challenge with their 'Fins pick.

 

[Woodson]

This is it FOLKS, Over the Top!!
The ND14 PLAY-OFFS are here and it's Go TIME!!

Here are the ND Play-off Tie-Breakers:
1. Most correct winning teams selected
2. Highest CR countback
3. Previous week higher score
4. Previous week higher CR countback

Of the 106 play-off encounters, there have been FIVE tie-breakers in all:
2008: Oscarman denied to JeffDunne on Most Winners countback (13-11).
2009: Chris25 denied by DevNull (formerly Reacher) on Highest CR Countback. (TB 16CR) **Conference Championship**
2009: Peterbuch74 denied by TCol Most winners countback.(10-8) **Conference Championship**
2010: Moo denied by Dirty Bird on Most Winners countback (14-12) **Super Bowl III**
2013: Statsman74 denied by Arkie on Most Winners countback (14-13)

ND Play-Off Results:
1-5 margin: 28%
6-9 margin: 23%
10-19 margin: 32%
20+ Blow-outs: 16%

Highest scoring aggregate Play-off game: ARKIE vs STATSMAN74 : 248 (2013)
Lowest Scoring aggregate play-Off game: TCOL vs SWANNIES: 121 (2011)
Highest Score: Dirty Bird 131 (2013)
Lowest score: Swannies 46 (2011)
Biggest Winning Margin: 42 (Beez smashed Tomatosauceling 118-76 / 2013)

ND PLAY-OFF PREVIEWS

CHARLES HALEY CONFERENCE

1. AXISMILES03 vs 8. JEFFDUNNE
Head to Head: 1-1
ND13 finalist, JeffDunne returns for his third play-off campaign to hopefully go one better as he is one of seven who are from the TOP TEN to participate in this season's play-offs series. JD has a credible 5-2 play-off record boosted from last season's SB run that fell short by seven points. JD faces AxisMiles03 who had his worst week in week 13 to tumble out of the Top Ten for the first time with a scarring 71 points. Last season AxisMiles03 entered as #2 seed / 41st on the CR standings but was bundled out in Round 1 to Osmodiar who was 13 places above him. @AxisMiles03 is in a tough spot now, his form hasn't been inspiring even though his 9-2-1 campaign says otherwise. Hasn't hit triple digits since week SIX!! JeffDunne has registered a HRSQ to his credit early and followed up with a couple scores of 100+ however is yet to claim a ND victory over opponents with a winning record (0-4). AxisMiles03 showed plenty of grit to nudge out Crowman23 in Week 10 and has a decent record against opponents with winning records, 3-1-1. This is their third meeting, having last met in the last regular season game of 2013 with JD routing AxisMiles 95-67.

Bottom line: JeffDunne has yet to lose to anyone below him on the CR standings during his previous play-off runs and I expect that standard to continue.

Prediction: JD 105-97

Woody's Line: JeffDunne -3.5pts

2. BILLIEVER vs 7. PRIMETIME PRICEY
First Meeting
Billiever's questionable seeding of #2 has come about with his tight Week 3 victory over Clay Matthews Division Champ, Albertonrob, which invariably become the prime tie-breaker between the three tied 8-4 Division champ records in the Charles Haley Conference. But the test that truly qualified Billiever for play-off contention and subsequently clinched the Tony Gonzalez Division Title was the final week Division title decider with the Honey Badger who gave up too much information online which come back to bite him in the arse. Billiever clinched the Division title by a measly point. This will be Billiever's first play-off start after butchering his opportunity last season by missing the play-offs entirely despite leading the Bart Starr Division by a game with three weeks remaining. Primetime Pricey also notched up an 8-4 record but enters as a Wildcard here having dropped the season opener and subsequently the tie-breaker to the eventual Clay Matthews division title champ, Albertonrob. Primetime Pricey has been in scorching form lately, having crushed his last two opponents by over 30pts and cruised thru the WCQ stage without much trouble despite over-committing on the G-Men with 12CR vs the Jags. Primetime Pricey entered the 2012 ND Play-Offs as #1 seed (CR 22nd) in the Curly Lambeau Conference and proceeded all the way to the Conference Final but outplayed by the eventual ND champ, Superfreak (#6 seed and CR Top Ten), by a small margin. Neither have dropped a match up by less than 7pts with Billiever notching up 5 from 5.

Bottom Line: Billiever has an uncanny way of scrambling over the line in tight finishes, has a 2-1 record against opponents with a winning record whereas Primetime Pricey is 2-3 against winning opponents. One risky pick (high CR) too many will cost Primetime Pricey but an upset is possible if Primetime nails that outsider pick.

Prediction: Billiever 106-104

Woody's Line: Primetime Pricey -1.5pts


3. ALBERTONROB vs 6. CHISM
First Meeting
Form leading into the play-offs are distinctively poles apart here with Albertonrob bringing in a four game WINNING streak whilst the wheels seem to have fallen off Chism at the business end as he trudges into December on the back of a woeful four game LOSING streak. albertonrob swept his division whilst Chism dropped two of his final four to division rivals who are in the bottom half of the CR standings. These form-lines scream a severe blow-out in the making as Albertonrob is a clear sixty points ahead on the CR standings differential. The only thing that both have in common is back in 2011, they entered the play-offs in their respective conferences as #2 seeds but fell short to their respective opponents who ironically were both positioned #7 on the CR standings. Chism performs better as the overlooked underdog, having taken down top seeds #4 TCol & #2 Travodo88 in consecutive weeks before being pipped by a miserly point in the Art Rooney Conference Championship game by the eventual runners-up, REACHER, back in 2012. Chism is 2-2 in play-offs whilst Albertonrob yet to break the duck after lowering his colours to peterbuch74 , who was CR Leader (eventual winner) in 2011.

Bottom Line: Albertonrob is a model of consistency this season having pressed into the Top Ten after being entrenched in the TOP 20 for much of the AE14 campaign. Chism knows what it takes to win and like Primetime Pricey, is willing to roll the dice on the odd upset result which we're getting a few weekly but unfortunately Chism can't seem to pick em!! One upset result won't be enough and the other will cost Chism dearly. The tussle in Texas : Advantage Albertonrob.

Prediction: Albertonrob 106-99

Woody's Line: Albertonrob -8.5pts

4. CROWMAN23 vs 5. FUEY
Head to Head: 1-0
Perhaps somewhat ironic with the timing that the Packers & Pats have just met that these Division Champs who follow the aforementioned teams go head to head for the second time this season as Fuey who overcome a sluggish start (3-4), has made inroads to qualify for the Play-Offs for the first time despite claiming his second division title. Fuey showed a glimpse of what he can do when needed most with his best score of the season (98) to edge out rookie MattyT78 for the JJ WATT title in the regular season finale while Crowman23 has had difficulties shaking off opponents in close contests in recent weeks with an overall 3-3 record in match ups decided by seven points or less. Fuey is the master of close to the wire finishes, having collected TWO AE titles (3XKO in 2007 and DZE in 2012) in tie-breakers, is 5-3 this season. Crowman23 will rely on his systematic selections to pave the way to victory but a couple upset results is all it takes to give Fuey half a shot despite being in the bottom half of the CR Standings (48th). Crowman23 continues to surge forward being equal third on the CR Standings and has back to back CR titles in his sights.

Bottom Line: Early on this season, Crowman claimed the first meeting 97-90 but it's been Fuey with the better run of results winning four of the last five whereas Crowman23 snapped a three game losing streak in Week 12 to clinch the Peyton Manning Division title with an upset MNF result that was out of his hands (BoKnows34 loaded up on NOR to try surpass Crowman23). Crowman23 will learn from those recent close calls and make that indifferent selection to drag him across the line.

Prediction: Crowman23 99-94

Woody's Line: Crowman23 -7.5pts

WARREN MOON CONFERENCE

1. SVEN vs 8. TCOL
Head to Head: 1-0
Everybody knows how much of a colossal match up this is… with both having a major AE title under their belt… just to reflect on their respective ND history: Sven & TCol square up with identical winning percentage records with Sven playing an additional season to have the most regular season victories >> 57-26-2 (68%) as opposed to TCol's 48-23-0 (68%) but TCol excels in the play-offs with a ND best 10-4 record as opposed to Sven's 2-3. Sven has the ledger over TCol with more Top TEN finishes 5-3 but TCol is currently 21 points the better this season on the CR standings (2nd vs 9th). Their Week 9 match up result was determined after the completion of SNF with Sven holding off TCol by a measly point. Sven has selected 128 winners on the year to date vs TCol's 125.

Bottom line: Someone will have to blink to see who see who gets the advantage. TCol has the poise to hang tough which will give Sven plenty to think about. Regardless.. this is EPIC..

Prediction: Sven 121-121 (Most winners TB)

Woody's line: TCol -0.5pts

2. SMITHS vs 7. SUPERFREAK
First Meeting
This is ONe heck of a great match up with both competitors having solid campaigns. Superfreak has been rising up the CR standings to be equal third now with a 29 point gap separating him from Smiths (Eq14th). But Smiths does have a significant advantage over Superfreak in being hardened for the ND play-offs, which his illustrated in his h2h meetings vs opponents with winning records holding an impressive 4-2 record vs Superfreak's 0-2. The most intriguing fact is when Superfreak won his ND Championship title in 2012, he finished Equal 14th on the CR standings whilst Smiths finished 8th. With Superfreak clearly the more proficient tipster to be 29 ahead on three additional winners selected for the year, it's gonna have to come from Smiths to roll the dice on a 50/50 contest.

Bottom line: Smith is 6-0 in close contests whilst Superfreak is equally as impressive but not perfect, 5-2. Smith is a tad more hardened against winning opponents who have thrown down the challenge his way and has the perfect record to prove it but Superfreak has the enviable 5-1 play-off record that spells danger for Smiths.

Prediction: Smiths 123-123 ( Highest CR TB)

Woody's line: Superfreak -1.5pts

3. BLOODS33 vs 6. GEECATS07
Head to Head: 1-0
The sheer consistency of Bloods33 has enabled him to cope better than most regardless of NFL results that qualifies his 9-2-1 record as legit. Bloods' Week 12 TIE result was more about iluvparis having his best week in his rookie season, which is to say that anyone can take on the best from the bottom half of the standings in any given week, which has to be promising news for GeeCats07 who has faired reasonably well despite his five losses and three of his five losses decided by less than seven points. Their only encounter was back in Week 6 of 2010 with Bloods33 coming up trumps. Geecats07 has to bring his A-GAME this week as he not only faces the #1 CR in ND but #2 in LCS. It would be the greatest AE coup to reel 'em both in but there is a lingering doubt with his constant tapping at the Top Ten door… it would take the greatest knock to say you've arrived. Statement time is NOW for GeeCats07.

Bottom Line: Consider that GeeCats07 has found four more winners than the CR leader yet trails by 31 in points differential on the CR standings has to be worry as the crazy part of the season is yet to come.

Prediction: Bloods33 112-103

Woody's line: Bloods33 -7.5pts


4. SODAPOP vs 5. MANUREID
Head to Head: 1-0
Separated by just 13 points difference on the CR standings mid table, the roads to the post-season have been starkly different. Sodapop opened up his campaign on a flyer with a 5-0 start whilst Manureid stumbled getting to mid-season with a awkward 2-4-1 start before turning his campaign around with a run of four consecutive victories which included the Dwight Freeney Division champ, GeeCats07. Manureid also claimed the golden scalp of his ol' mate Albertonrob early in the season, Albertonron clinched the Clay Matthews Division title which consolidates Manureid's credibility as a worthy play-off participant but how he copes against experienced campaigners in his first play-off series remains to be seen. Sodapop has the inaugural CR glory (2007) under his belt along with a second ND title, Jim Brown Division title of 2008 being his first. Sodapop enters his third play-off series with a 2-2 record. Last season he caused the BOILOVER of the play-offs by bringing down AE heavyweight SVEN in the divisional round. Their only prior encounter was way back in 2008 with Sodapop taking the honours.

Bottom Line: Experience can only take you so far based on reputation. Considering that Sodapop has found four additional picks more than Manureid this season, that tells you two things, Manureid is willing to take a risk on a few which will invariably get him across the line but it also says that Sodapop plays a straight bat, only seven less winners selected than the CR leader and doesn't overcommit on 50/50 teams.

Prediction: Manureid 110-103

Woody's line: Sodapop -2.5pts

 

[Primetime Pricey]

ohhhhhhhhhh im next

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Come the **** at me Billiever

 

[manureid]

4. SODAPOP vs 5. MANUREID
Head to Head: 1-0
Manureid also claimed the golden scalp of his ol' mate Albertonrob early in the season, Albertonron clinched the Clay Matthews Division title which consolidates Manureid's credibility as a worthy play-off participant but how he copes against experienced campaigners in his first play-off series remains to be seen. Sodapop has the inaugural CR glory (2007) under his belt along with a second ND title, Jim Brown Division title of 2008 being his first. Sodapop enters his third play-off series with a 2-2 record. Last season he caused the BOILOVER of the play-offs by bringing down AE heavyweight SVEN in the divisional round. Their only prior encounter was way back in 2008 with Sodapop taking the honours.

I especially liked this part....good ol' swear filter!

 

[Woodson]

The ND Play-Off consensus has favoured the Cowboys 12-4 with three contests serving up early.
Warren Moon Conference:
Sven 9CR (Dallas) vs TCOL 1CR (Chicago)
Smiths 6CR (Dallas) vs Superfreak 9CR (Dallas)
Bloods 1CR (Dallas) vs GeeCats 1CR (Dallas)
Sodapop 2CR (Dallas) vs Manureid 10CR (Dallas)

Charles Haley Conference:
AxisMiles 9CR (Dallas) vs JeffDunne 1CR (Chicago)
Billiever 6CR (Dallas) vs PrimetimePricey 16CR (Dallas)
Albertonrob 1CR (Chicago) vs Chism 1CR (Dallas)
Crowman 8CR (Dallas) vs Fuey 1CR (Chicago)

 

[manureid]

Ummmm...go Boys!

 

[Primetime Pricey]

BOOOM 16CR

 

[manureid]

A few tentative Bears picks there...nobody went balls deep on them though.

 

[peterbuch74]

A few tentative Bears picks there...nobody went balls deep on them though.

AC83 had them at 10CR and TomatoSauceling for 16CR

 

[manureid]

AC83 had them at 10CR and TomatoSauceling for 16CR

Sorry, meant in the playoff group.

 

[Woodson]

AC83 had them at 10CR and TomatoSauceling for 16CR

If you're gonna spin your wheels.. that's the way to do it but unfortunately instead of showboating on the tarmac, these guys have bogged themselves already this week. To go 15 winners from now on would be ' spesssshhool' if I can quote one Bruce McAverney.

 

[smiths]

May as well just pencil Superfreak and I for HRS now Woodson

 

[GeeCats07]

-7.5 Woodson !!!

How dare you!

 

[Woodson]

-7.5 Woodson !!!

How dare you!

That's what I was after… something to trigger the FIRE within.. 'gotta feel the kick inside' >> can't afford to be getting pats on the back just yet, so read to the words that get you …



and back it up with..

Actually Pat Benetar is singing the National Anthem on Sunday before each of the AE play-off games.. hope you'll be inspired.. GeeCats07!!

 

[exe ex machina]

Quoting pat benatar is as bad as quoting Celine Dion.

 

[Woodson]

Quoting pat benatar is as bad as quoting Celine Dion.

Poles apart.. Pat Benatar has the anthems….lock stock and two smokin' barrels my friend.. Maybe you should look her up because she penned one about the Raiders & the GG promises of redemption years ago..

 

[exe ex machina]

No, Celine Dion wrote a far better Raiders song...

 

[exe ex machina]

Did you know Al was actually a Celine Dion fan? Absolutely true. Papa tells the story about Al inviting 10-20 guys, including Papa, to either Vegas or Tahoe for his birthday, and to celebrate one of the things Al did was take everyone to a Celine Dion concert.

 

[Woodson]

Moving along…

Both are playing cards close to their chests…. 1CR on the Cowboys by Chism vs 1CR on Bears by Albertonrob. Nothing in it really.

Personally I think Chism could of cost himself a play-off defeat by not backing his mob here. After the Redskins loss that wiped the floor with the 3XKO, Chism reminded me how vulnerable the Cowboys D was and when I asked him about his CR on this weeks TNF... he wasn't keen either.

This invariably declined my decision to crank up the Cowboys (smh... guess Chism gets payback from the miscue advice I gave him in the past).

 

[Dirty Bird]

What a boring playoff group. 15 nobodies and JeffDunne.