AFL 2014 ROUND 4

[Willzzz]

Interesting line, dont blame you on taking the unders!

Absolute jet and will be a DT/SC pig in the next few years but still young.

Yep no doubt he will be a superstar in the future, love watching him play.

Don't have a great understanding of SC scoring, especially with scaling and the other intricacies.

Have looked through previous games and there seems to be about 2-3 120+ Scorers in the winning team and about 1 in the losing side.

Think GWS will lose and can see Ward getting best afield for the giants.

Can see Wallis go to Treloar too.

Also, Treloar has only scored 120+ once last year, this year he has covered 2/3 though.

 

[Willzzz]

Can you give your reasoning for this mate? I agree that it is too high but GWS have averaged 88 points per game this year whilst the WB managed 100 last week when they hit some great form. I think most of us agree that this should be a WB victory but GWS should run pretty well with them over the course of the match. You saw what Jack Riewoldt was able to do in the second half against the WB defense, with Cameron and Patton up forward they should do some damage.

Definitely considering tailing the bet, just wanted your thoughts

Will get back to you this evening.

 

[d3ft]

For everyone patting themselves on the back for tipping North last week, the only reason they got up was Monfries hamstring snapping.

 

[GROTTO]

My smoky for the round also incidentally no one else has mentioned, is North Melbourne.
Also, I think I was the only one who said NM were a good chance last week (ask Grotto), when everyone else was pounding Port Adelaide.

Yes Willzzz did tell me not to back Port as he told me that the Roos would get up, while I did hit Port hard I was close to not giving the bookies my BSB, Account number, login and password on his advice.

I am a little filthy on that match, Port hitting the post 3 more times than the Roos, Monfries tearing his hamstring running into an open goal, Schulz and Wingard injuring themselves during the game, which I felt upset their rotations on/off the bench. But congratulations to those that backed the Roos, they did get it right and deserve the praise.

 

[d3ft]

EDIT: Never mind.

And Grotto, winning a bet does not always mean you got it right. Nor does losing mean you got it wrong.

 

[GROTTO]

Every now and then Betstar offers $2 on the winner of the coin toss. Not that I have ever bet on that, but if anyone decided to, at least you would know you aren't getting ripped off. It would be the quickest outcome of a bet I would have ever experienced if I decided to bet on it too, and I placed a bet on a Bolt/Blake 100m exacta in London, which took fewer than 9.8 seconds.

Thanks mate I will look into that.

Look I fully understand that the bookies are there to make money and I understand and appreciate the prices that are given which takes into consideration the commission that they take for these events. I just found it amusing that they had an event that you could bet on an even or odd number totals score.

 

[GROTTO]

Yep - I never make money on away teams. Here's this year's profit graph (betting on away teams is the red line):

Which is pretty much what you see in the long term, as well.

robertbn what does your model propose for 2 Victorian teams playing at the dome (ie Saints v Bullies) or Pies V Tigers at the G or for Showdowns/derbies/Q clash/Battle of the Bride does it favour the team that is listed as the home team for those particular games?

 

[Lensen]

And Grotto, winning a bet does not always mean you got it right. Nor does losing mean you got it wrong.

I didn't really want to "like" the entire post but this part is 100% spot on

 

[d3ft]

I didn't really want to "like" the entire post but this part is 100% spot on

Fair enough, I've removed the rest as it was a bit ranty (and inaccurate now that I've gone back and looked at it more closely). I think the last sentence was all I wanted to say.

 

[GROTTO]

The beauty about going against Collingwood is that everyone in Australia follows them, so you know you're always getting overs for the opposition team.

Correct, even I have heard bookies mention this a lot when talking about punts for the AFL.

 

[GROTTO]

EDIT: Never mind.

And Grotto, winning a bet does not always mean you got it right. Nor does losing mean you got it wrong.

True, I think overall the punting tends to even itself up over a season. I only have to think of last year, when Varcoe was running into an open goal for Geelong in the prelim and missed in the last minute and Hawks win (while I backed I was very fortunate).

 

[Degen_Punter]

EDIT: Never mind.

And Grotto, winning a bet does not always mean you got it right. Nor does losing mean you got it wrong.

Well North backer most certainly didn't get it wrong either. I guess I didn't get Carlton wrong by that logic.

 

[GROTTO]

Well North backer most certainly didn't get it wrong either. I guess I didn't get Carlton wrong by that logic.

I think it applies to tight games more so, with that said all of last year North choked in a tight games.

If a bookie told you the game is going to be decided by less than 3 goals you would surely back the Roos to lose based on their performances last year in losing 10 games by less than 3 goals. At 3/4 time the Power were up by 2 goals and had been boasting about their final qtr performances all of last year and this year.

With that said I still believe the North backers deserve the kudo's for getting it right.

 

[jefffff34]

robertbn what does your model propose for 2 Victorian teams playing at the dome (ie Saints v Bullies) or Pies V Tigers at the G or for Showdowns/derbies/Q clash/Battle of the Bride does it favour the team that is listed as the home team for those particular games?

Spot on, in my spreadsheet I cater for home, away and neutral. Neutral could also mean those random games at Marrara, etc.

 

[GROTTO]

Spot on, in my spreadsheet I cater for home, away and neutral. Neutral could also mean those random games at Marrara, etc.

True and Auckland (Westpac Stadium) which I believe technically is a Saints home game.

 

[jefffff34]

True and Auckland (Westpac Stadium) which I believe technically is a Saints home game.

Wellington.

 

[GROTTO]

Wellington.

I learnt some Geography today lol. Thanks.

 

[Zahasouvlakis]

1.5U – SC Treloar Under 120.5 Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Taken just then.

I'm also on this, think 120.5 is crazy.

 

[Stretcher Boy]

Thoughts on this multi
Collingwood over 15.5points @ 2.20
Carlton over 15.5 points @ 1.25
Port Adelaide @ 1.13
Geelong over 15.5 @ 1.50
St.Kilda +8.5 @ 1.90
Essendon under 39.5 points @ 2.60

Total $23.02

 

[TheKanga]

For everyone patting themselves on the back for tipping North last week, the only reason they got up was Monfries hamstring snapping.

Bullshit

Angus Monfrie wouldn't have been the difference.

Good luck this week, your mob need all the help they can get!

 

[robertbn]

robertbn what does your model propose for 2 Victorian teams playing at the dome (ie Saints v Bullies) or Pies V Tigers at the G or for Showdowns/derbies/Q clash/Battle of the Bride does it favour the team that is listed as the home team for those particular games?

The home ground advantage depends on a couple of factors - travel, experience at the ground and who is listed as the 'home' team. For instance, this weekend's Tigers vs Collingwood match gives the Tigers a couple of points for playing at home (why it comes out this way, I'm not 100% sure - home change rooms, more Tigers supporters?), but then Collingwood have played ~25 more games there than the Tigers in the past few seasons, so they peg back most of that home ground advantage. Carlton vs Melbourne is almost the exact same situation.

 

[Arsene Wenger]

Bullshit

Angus Monfrie wouldn't have been the difference.

Good luck this week, your mob need all the help they can get!

agreed. Kangas too good.

I like Stretcher Boys multi above. May get on that.

 

[Jay-Z]

Thoughts on this multi
Collingwood over 15.5points @ 2.20
Carlton over 15.5 points @ 1.25
Port Adelaide @ 1.13
Geelong over 15.5 @ 1.50
St.Kilda +8.5 @ 1.90
Essendon under 39.5 points @ 2.60

Total $23.02

I have a feeling the crows will take care of St Kilda by more than 9 points so that (and possibly essendon) are your major dangers IMO

 

[Stretcher Boy]

I have a feeling the crows will take care of St Kilda by more than 9 points so that (and possibly essendon) are your major dangers IMO

Yeah i was thinking the same but with the saints playing well and jack Steven maybe back this week I think they should go well. Essendon have won their past 2 against freo over there and with the abundance of outs for freo and essendon playing well I think may justify my selections. But that's just my opinion, everyone's is different

 

[Jay-Z]

Yeah i was thinking the same but with the saints playing well and jack Steven maybe back this week I think they should go well. Essendon have won their past 2 against freo over there and with the abundance of outs for freo and essendon playing well I think may justify my selections. But that's just my opinion, everyone's is different

Yeah fair enough. I am including Essendon in my mutli this week too. It's a bit of a risk but they are value at that price. I'll be going with adelaide as one of the other legs... as you said, different opinions, etc... good luck