AFL 2025 Second Preliminary Final - Cats v Hawks Fri Sept 19th 7:40pm EST (MCG)

[Mr Meow]

Yes, there are always what ifs, but the ones you've cited are a little different to the impact of the fixture.

Injuries to players is largely uncontrollable (other than making sure you have a state-of-the-art fitness and medical team). The fixture is under someone's control - the AFL's, and what I'm saying boils down to wanting the AFL to do a better job of evening out the fixture (probably over a multi-season window, given the difficulties of making it fair on a single season basis).

Personally, I think the idea that the lower teams get easier draws on paper than the higher teams is silly. Equalisation is a reasonable goal, but the fixture is the worst place to try to do it, and using it for equalisation is largely ineffective anway, as it produces things like Essendon making the finals every second year off their easy draw after a bad year, and then getting hammered by the stronger teams in the first week of finals.

It would be an easy fix to work out a rolling window fixture that made sure you knew you were going to play each side a fixed number of times over the window, irrespective of ladder positions, and all teams play each side that fixed number of times. You'll still get some teams that get lucky (like Geelong did), or unlucky (like Port) in a single year, getting an easier or tougher than average draw, but you will not be able to complain over a multi year window , at least not based on who you play, there would also need to be more effort to equalise factors other than the 'who' like the 'where' and the 'when' (i.e implementing a day's break metric, and sensible home ground rotations).

People talk like improving fixturing is impossible, but the biggest barrier is not really working out a fairer system, it is having the AFL letting go of using commercial interests as a major optimisation factor in the fixture, instead of having fairness as the main goal. We could still keep traditions like Anzac day, and Easter Monday in the fixture each year, given you'd probably still want to make sure there was at least one matchup between clubs each year, and still get a perfectly even matchup distribution over a multi-year window.

Anyway, it is partly a crutch, given the context, but also a pretty reasonable thing to expect from the AFL, and something you don't need to be on the losing end of a prelim to think is a good idea.

Each to their own. I have my interpretation of why it's being leaned on now by yourself. I'm also fine with you passing it off as a "general spirit and integrity of the game" philosophical lecture.

In terms of a prelim match thread, my concern is on the merit of the best teams and the two grand finalists passed that test without ANY caveats or what ifs. But it's fine if you disagree.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Geelong were clearly the best team and deserve to be in the granny. Its off the back of their captain who has only had cameos in the middle being shifted there after qtr time. We had not enough answers to the questions Geelong posed. We live and learn and come back bigger and better see u next year cats.

 

[Wojcinski]

pages 23 through 36 make for some excellent reading

 

[hk89]

Each to their own. I have my interpretation of why it's being leaned on now by yourself. I'm also fine with you passing it off as a "general spirit and integrity of the game" philosophical lecture.

Well, I already confessed it was partly a crutch, and yes, I probably wouldn't be having the conversation if it was Hawthorn making its way to the GF.

In terms of a prelim match thread, my concern is on the merit of the best teams and the two grand finalists passed that test without ANY caveats or what ifs. But it's fine if you disagree.

Geelong have played the best football this finals series so far, no doubt about it. That isn't inconsistent with the possibility that the compromised draws sometimes makes it easier for some teams than others in terms of how the finals play out, and who is playing at their best. I'm not overly upset over it, because I'm relatively comfortable with the two teams left in it being the two best when it mattered.

As long as the AFL allows a bunch of commercial priorities to dictate the draw, there will always be caveats (and if there wasn't fans will invest different excuses).

Mentioning what ifs or caveats isn't the same as claiming something is undeserved. In many years, the MCG as a GF venue is a massive caveat we all live with, and one my own team benefits from. It doesn't mean I don't think we haven't deserved all the flags we've won at the venue, but I acknowledge it tends to make the job a little easier, especially against non-Vic sides. If Cats win next Saturday, they'll deserve their flag too (and in this case MCG caveat doesn't really apply, Geelong were the higher finishing side, and should have got at least their state-of choice even if their home ground isn't a feasible option for a game like this). Geelong don't engineer their draw, and won the games they needed to win, so it would be silly to suggest Geelong was anything less than a deserving grandfinalist. It would be a boring world if we're not allowed to speculate on the what ifs though. Even when its a thinly disguised crutch

 

[hk89]

pages 23 through 36 make for some excellent reading

Ahh, the good old days.

 

[Mr Meow]

Well, I already confessed it was partly a crutch, and yes, I probably wouldn't be having the conversation if it was Hawthorn making its way to the GF.



Geelong have played the best football this finals series so far, no doubt about it. That isn't inconsistent with the possibility that the compromised draws sometimes makes it easier for some teams than others in terms of how the finals play out, and who is playing at their best. I'm not overly upset over it, because I'm relatively comfortable with the two teams left in it being the two best when it mattered.

As long as the AFL allows a bunch of commercial priorities to dictate the draw, there will always be caveats (and if there wasn't fans will invest different excuses).

Mentioning what ifs or caveats isn't the same as claiming something is undeserved. In many years, the MCG as a GF venue is a massive caveat we all live with, and one my own team benefits from. It doesn't mean I don't think we haven't deserved all the flags we've won at the venue, but I acknowledge it tends to make the job a little easier, especially against non-Vic sides. If Cats win next Saturday, they'll deserve their flag too (and in this case MCG caveat doesn't really apply, Geelong were the higher finishing side, and should have got at least their state-of choice even if their home ground isn't a feasible option for a game like this). Geelong don't engineer their draw, and won the games they needed to win, so it would be silly to suggest Geelong was anything less than a deserving grandfinalist. It would be a boring world if we're not allowed to speculate on the what ifs though. Even when its a thinly disguised crutch

Well they do say it's better to be lucky than good.

Hopefully in a weeks time I can say both about Geelong because we have had a fair set of "what ifs" over the years as well.

In Hawthorn's case this year though I am very confident in saying they weren't a premiership level team no matter what luck they got. Next year may differ.

 

[Moggy]

Am I the only one that needed 3+ days to get to the end of this thread? There were some dark times but reasonable discussion broke at at the end

On the game, I think the Cats were a level above and deserved winners, but I was also impressed by the Hawks’ mentality. They kept coming back at us and that’s a great sign. I think Mitchell is a clever coach without a doubt - although he still grates on me… for historical reasons

On the draw, I like the multi year idea given the rapid rise and fall of some clubs. We need to aim for an equal draw for all, not a soft one for weaker teams leading to one-sided finals.

On the GF, I am bloody nervous.

Cheers

 

[Seeds]

Yup, fair fixturing within the system we have is just plain difficult, but doesn't mean they shouldn't try harder.

Up until the first week of finals Lions looked on paper to be a biggest hurdle for you, with two losses against them, and the second one being fairly large (AND at the cattery). Given your recent result, I can see how it both gives you hope AND makes you nervous at the same time. Lions have something to prove they didn't have before the loss, but they are also the least rested team now, and and you say have injury concerns.

As a Hawks fan , I hold a lot less hate of Geelong than I did during the curse sequence (2013, and the 3-peat helped heal those wounds, and has mostly turned hatred into a begrudging respect), but I'll still be barracking for Lions . Looks like you're going in even stronger betting favourites against Lions than you were against us, but hopefully the game is closer than the odds suggest (from a fairly non-neutral neutral's point of view ).

If we had fair fixturing the top 6 from the previous season would have an easier draw including geelong. You get that right?

 

[DearJai]

If we had fair fixturing the top 6 from the previous season would have an easier draw including geelong. You get that right?

Serious question: exactly how much easier could your draw have been from week 12 to finals?

You played 9 games against the bottom 8, and those 9 didn't include the Bulldogs.

I'm just not sure it's possible.

 

[VinnieB]

If the Pies win this evening, I’m confident we will be premiers.

Yep. Still stand by this. Brisbane were always the danger. We would have another premiership to add to the cabinet if we played Geelong yesterday. Too cocky. Team and their supporters.