Expansion AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

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Lip Gallagher

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I dont think history or current experience supports that theory. A-League was soccer's big 'break out' and it has proven unsustainable. Nor is is alone in its inability to grow from minor sport to major sport (in the Australian context). Over the past 40 years a number of 3rd tier sports have had their moments in the sun - Baseball in the late 80's, Basketball in the '90s (and perhaps again in the 20's), soccer in the last decade.... all rise and then ebb as the third sport - because they rise on novelty and fall on lack of substance and genuine economic scale. Soccer wasnt the first, wont be the last and will have periodic relevance from time to time, but frankly, all it took was one good counter punch from the slow moving cricket authorities by introducing BBL to blow A-League out of the water and destroy the carefully manufactured facade of soccer's "inevitable rise" in Australia. One novelty event, to blow down another novelty event. That's all it took.

..and that, in its essence is the challenge for AFL in queensland. NRL is not a novelty event - it has deep deep roots that must be respected. You are not going to make long term inroads in that market with a novelty event - and we can include the hosting of an AFL GF as exactly that. Good publicity but it s a novelty. that is not reflective of or guarantee of any long term advance. The Qld GF is just an anomaly that fell in the AFL's lap and they were right to leverage the opportunity. However the AFL would appear sensible enough to know it's pre-existing long term approach in NRL markets is the right one - slow, steady growth, forming deep roots; The odd Warwick Capper, the odd Buddy Franklin can help - but you'll notice the Lions recent resurgence has not relied on a single gimmick exercise. No boom recruit, no change of Guernsey or re-branding, no change of venue, or song. It is an attractive football club with community credibility beyond novelty. Not dominant in Qld, but credible.
Brilliant post, 100% agree.
 

quotemokc

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We need more islander types in the league to appeal to that base.

It actually is a bit strange how few islanders there are in the AFL.

Do they lack the aerobic capacity?
 

PhatBoy

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We need more islander types in the league to appeal to that base.

It actually is a bit strange how few islanders there are in the AFL.

Do they lack the aerobic capacity?
I’m not big on exercise science but that has been the knock on Polynesian and Melanesian players in rugby league for a long time.
You get the explosive winger types who are incredibly quick and athletic but for the most part aren’t the sort of wingers that are making 250m a game carting kick returns relentlessly into the defence. You get the front and second towers who hit like freight trains and have freak ball skills for players of their size. But not the 50 tackle, 200m forwards who will play 80 minutes. There ARE examples of both but on a percentage basis they are few and far between
 

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GC2015

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We need more islander types in the league to appeal to that base.
Do we? The 2016 census showed 142,000 people of Maori heritage lived in Australia and 206,000 people of Pacific Islander heritage lived in our country.
The Australian population in 2016 was 23.4 million which means just 1.48% of the population were of Maori or Pacific Islander heritage in 2016...

It actually is a bit strange how few islanders there are in the AFL.
Would you consider Dusty Martin Polynesian? His dad is Maori and he has the words 'Ngati Mauru' and 'Matai Whetu' tattooed to his neck which pay respect to his Maori heritage.

Marley Williams is Maori. Shane Savage is Maori. Nic Naitanui is Fijian. Esava Ratugolea is Fijian. Aaron Hall is Fijian. Aidan Bonar is Papua New Guinean. Ace Hawego is Papua New Guinean.

I just listed 8 players of Polynesian backgrounds on AFL lists in 2020 and there was approximately 750 players in the AFL this year. This means a little over 1% of the of the AFL is listed above and there are probably other players of Polynesian backgrounds in the AFL that I haven't listed. So I'd say the representation of Polynesian players in the AFL is about right when you consider their representation in regards to the national population.

Do they lack the aerobic capacity?
Karmichael Hunt often talked about this when asked about his AFL experience. He believed his body type simply wasn't suited to the amount of running required in modern football. His body eventually gave in and continually got injured in his final AFL season. Now some may say that's just natural wear and tear over the years but don't forget Karmichael Hunt went on to represent the Wallabies in rugby union AFTER his AFL days so he was able to reach the pinnacle of another sport that didn't require as much running. Therefore, his theory about his body type not being suited to the amount of running required in the AFL is probably a sound one.
 

Rob

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Karmichael Hunt often talked about this when asked about his AFL experience. He believed his body type simply wasn't suited to the amount of running required in modern football. His body eventually gave in and continually got injured in his final AFL season. Now some may say that's just natural wear and tear over the years but don't forget Karmichael Hunt went on to represent the Wallabies in rugby union AFTER his AFL days so he was able to reach the pinnacle of another sport that didn't require as much running. Therefore, his theory about his body type not being suited to the amount of running required in the AFL is probably a sound one.
It depends whether it's a body type issue or it's years of power and strength training that increase muscle mass but basically make you too heavy to develop any sort of elite endurance. The latter can be reversed, but it would take a huge amount of commitment to running long distances. Hunt probably never did anything like that in his life, and he may have simply not been prepared to put that work in.
But it may well be a genetic issue of simply being too heavy set. Polynesians are by no stretch reknown for their endurance capabilities, and perhaps that's the reason.
 

GC2015

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It depends whether it's a body type issue or it's years of power and strength training that increase muscle mass but basically make you too heavy to develop any sort of elite endurance. The latter can be reversed, but it would take a huge amount of commitment to running long distances. Hunt probably never did anything like that in his life, and he may have simply not been prepared to put that work in.
But it may well be a genetic issue of simply being too heavy set. Polynesians are by no stretch reknown for their endurance capabilities, and perhaps that's the reason.
However, the NRL now has more 45% of its current players coming from Polynesian backgrounds and, in particular, more than 70% of the NZ Warriors' list is of a Polynesian background. This is a serious over representation when you consider just 1.48% of the Australian population is of a Polynesian background and 25% of the New Zealand population comes from a Polynesian background. I don't think it's unfair to suggest the lesser running requirements in the two rugby codes suits the typical Polynesian body type more than Aussie rules and we have two perfect examples of this in Karmichael Hunt/Israel Folau who both reached the pinnacle in league and union but were largely unsuccessful in the AFL and would often cramp during games.

I'm not sure targeting the Polynesian community in Australia is really the best growth strategy going forward anyway. 1.48% of the population is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Outside of targeting Queenslanders and New South Welshmen in general, I would have thought the AFL would be looking to target the Asian community which makes up more than 12% of the Australian population. Lin Jong (Taiwanese) has essentially been the only Asian representative in the AFL for a while now but we're starting to see a small increase with Alex Davies (Japanese) and Connor Downie (Chinese) being drafted this year as well as Austin Harris (Vietnamese) on the draft radar next year.
 

kid_a

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Do we? The 2016 census showed 142,000 people of Maori heritage lived in Australia and 206,000 people of Pacific Islander heritage lived in our country.
The Australian population in 2016 was 23.4 million which means just 1.48% of the population were of Maori or Pacific Islander heritage in 2016...


Would you consider Dusty Martin Polynesian? His dad is Maori and he has the words 'Ngati Mauru' and 'Matai Whetu' tattooed to his neck which pay respect to his Maori heritage.

Marley Williams is Maori. Shane Savage is Maori. Nic Naitanui is Fijian. Esava Ratugolea is Fijian. Aaron Hall is Fijian. Aidan Bonar is Papua New Guinean. Ace Hawego is Papua New Guinean.

I just listed 8 players of Polynesian backgrounds on AFL lists in 2020 and there was approximately 750 players in the AFL this year. This means a little over 1% of the of the AFL is listed above and there are probably other players of Polynesian backgrounds in the AFL that I haven't listed. So I'd say the representation of Polynesian players in the AFL is about right when you consider their representation in regards to the national population.


Karmichael Hunt often talked about this when asked about his AFL experience. He believed his body type simply wasn't suited to the amount of running required in modern football. His body eventually gave in and continually got injured in his final AFL season. Now some may say that's just natural wear and tear over the years but don't forget Karmichael Hunt went on to represent the Wallabies in rugby union AFTER his AFL days so he was able to reach the pinnacle of another sport that didn't require as much running. Therefore, his theory about his body type not being suited to the amount of running required in the AFL is probably a sound one.
sorry to be "that guy", but Fijians and Papuans are actually Melanesians :tonguewink:
 

bzparkes

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If the AFL does not see soccer as its main rival, it is derelict.

Soccer IS the biggest sport in the world, by far, and is only played in summer over here, so it can gain TV coverage. Not directly vying against AFL and NRL directly for TV rights and media coverage.

The SOCCER admins saw summertime, vying against cricket and horse racing as the best way to sell the game and grow the grass roots base, which it has done, and continues to do.

So I am suggesting that one-day, soccer will move to covert Winter within Austrlia. To the demise of the NRL. They will be the first to fall.


Then soccer will go head to head against the AFL, gradually making inroads into Footy's main stomping grounds. The southern states of Aus. and rural Australia.
For all this hoo-hum about soccer taking over, consider this;

Off the top of my head I can think of 3 countries (other than England obviously) which have their own indigenous code. In Ireland, soccer's probably on par with Gaelic but that's about it.

In Australia and the USAbit's irrelevant compared to their other big sports.

This is likely due to the fact that the indigenous codes in these 3 countries is far more more intersting to watch than soccer and always will be.

Soccer will merely be a passing interest to most in Australia and will likely always be that way.
 

BringBackTorps

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Daily Telegraph P. Rothfield 7.5.17

Rothfied wrote:-

. in 2017 only, Sydney western suburbs' jnr GR contact RL nos. "had fallen as much as 15%".

. "An unnamed NRL official said 'At this rate, our game will be dead in 10 years' ".

. "Australian Rules appears to be the biggest threat to rugby league in Sydney's west".

. "There are now more oztag & touch football players than RL players in Parramatta".

. "The NRL admits whatever it has tried is not working, as its desperation to hang onto players grows".


(Click on "Daily Telegraph", in blue, at top of Reddit article, to open full Rothfield article).

ARLC Chair J. Grant was overturned by the NRL clubs in his plan to launch a $100m "emergency rescue plan" for GR contact RL- the NRL Clubs succeeded in having most of these funds diverted to themselves, & "forced" Grant to resign.

GR contact RL nos. in 2020 FAR surpass GR AF nos. in Sydney's WS- but in 2020, GR AF nos. in Sydney's NS, ES, & inner WS FAR surpass GR contact RL nos. there.
GR RL male contact nos. have continued to fall in Sydney, & other parts of Australia since 2017.
(The Central West of NSW is probably the only exception. This is due to NRL's Penrith rebranding all the CW RL clubs, jerseys, web sites etc. with "Penrith" branding, & establishing Academies in Bathurst, Dubbo, & Forbes).



In 2017, the NRL commissioned, from Dr W. Usher et al, from Griffiths Uni. Qld, a Report on Issues Effecting Rugby League Retention Rates.

Many "negative experiences/cultural problems" were identified, fear of injury, poor coaching, & general dissatisfaction in playing RL/loss of interest & fun.

Warning- this is 126 pages!


It is very clear that the NRL is very concerned about the long term significant decline in male GR contact RL nos. in Qld., NSW, & ACT.
Female contact RL nos. are, however, having significant growth, off a small base.
 
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DEVO

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Daily Telegraph P. Rothfield 7.5.17

Rothfied wrote:-

. in 2017 only, Sydney western suburbs' jnr GR contact RL nos. "had fallen as much as 15%".

. "An unnamed NRL official said 'At this rate, our game will be dead in 10 years' ".

. "Australian Rule appears to be the biggest threat to rugby league in Sydney's west".

. "There are now more oztag & touch football players than RL players in Parramatta".

. "The NRL admits whatever it has tried is not working, as its desperation to hang onto players grows".
Maybe that has more to do with how pathetic their local team is. :)
 

Sttew

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For all this hoo-hum about soccer taking over, consider this;

Off the top of my head I can think of 3 countries (other than England obviously) which have their own indigenous code. In Ireland, soccer's probably on par with Gaelic but that's about it.

In Australia and the USAbit's irrelevant compared to their other big sports.

This is likely due to the fact that the indigenous codes in these 3 countries is far more more intersting to watch than soccer and always will be.

Soccer will merely be a passing interest to most in Australia and will likely always be that way.
As soon as a local soccer talent is identified he will be off to England or Europe, and that is why soccer in Australia will NEVER achieve the same level of success as it does in those countries
 

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kreglze

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As soon as a local soccer talent is identified he will be off to England or Europe, and that is why soccer in Australia will NEVER achieve the same level of success as it does in those countries
England will become a lot less of an option for young aussie kids wanting to play soccer unless they are duel passport holders with Brexit coming into effect. Even though Brexit is focused on Europe, they have really tightened up the ability to bring in kids from overseas into England. AU players wanting to play in England would now need to meet a points system.
 

Off Tap

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I'm not sure targeting the Polynesian community in Australia is really the best growth strategy going forward anyway. 1.48% of the population is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Outside of targeting Queenslanders and New South Welshmen in general, I would have thought the AFL would be looking to target the Asian community which makes up more than 12% of the Australian population. Lin Jong (Taiwanese) has essentially been the only Asian representative in the AFL for a while now but we're starting to see a small increase with Alex Davies (Japanese) and Connor Downie (Chinese) being drafted this year as well as Austin Harris (Vietnamese) on the draft radar next year.
After living in QLD and NSW for the last 14 years, the AFL still has a long, long way to go before we're anywhere near close to the NRL for popularity.

While I agree that the Asian market is underrepresented, I believe in setting up the AFLW and targeting the new market that is the female market is the right path to follow.

Being 50% of the population, if we get more young girls/women playing the game then when it's time for their kids to come through they will be led towards the AFL and not the NRL.

It's not a short term strategy that is going to work, it's generational and will take decades for the AFL to get anywhere near the NRL in the NSW and QLD markets.
 

TheDarkDwarf

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After living in QLD and NSW for the last 14 years, the AFL still has a long, long way to go before we're anywhere near close to the NRL for popularity.

While I agree that the Asian market is underrepresented, I believe in setting up the AFLW and targeting the new market that is the female market is the right path to follow.

Being 50% of the population, if we get more young girls/women playing the game then when it's time for their kids to come through they will be led towards the AFL and not the NRL.

It's not a short term strategy that is going to work, it's generational and will take decades for the AFL to get anywhere near the NRL in the NSW and QLD markets.
I have also been in Sydney for about 15 years and agree wholeheartedly with Off Tap It is a slow process. About 2 years ago the North Narrabeen Sports High School took down the Rugby goal posts and installed AFL posts, I nearly ran off the road when I saw first saw them.
Another interesting take on this is that there is now enormous pressure up here on the Big private schools to introduce AFL into their curriculum. This is as a result of the pressure from Parents and the kids themselves. Whilst this may have a huge effect on Rugby, it will have a knock effect for league eventually. As has been said, slow steps.
 

Off Tap

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I have also been in Sydney for about 15 years and agree wholeheartedly with Off Tap It is a slow process. About 2 years ago the North Narrabeen Sports High School took down the Rugby goal posts and installed AFL posts, I nearly ran off the road when I saw first saw them.
Another interesting take on this is that there is now enormous pressure up here on the Big private schools to introduce AFL into their curriculum. This is as a result of the pressure from Parents and the kids themselves. Whilst this may have a huge effect on Rugby, it will have a knock effect for league eventually. As has been said, slow steps.
We spent 4 years up at Emerald, QLD, and they didn't even have a permanent set of goalposts. Last summer I was there we organised open training sessions for anyone of any age who wanted to join us for a kick and a laugh. 7 people out of about 6,500 population was the largest turnout we ever had.

Rugby dominated everything and we considered it lucky to get any news articles in the local paper or Courier Mail.

I moved the family back to WA end of November and I'm again loving the amount of exposure the AFL has here. They recently had a full page dedicated to Nat Fyfe's new haircut. Full page 3.
 

GC2015

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After living in QLD and NSW for the last 14 years, the AFL still has a long, long way to go before we're anywhere near close to the NRL for popularity.

While I agree that the Asian market is underrepresented, I believe in setting up the AFLW and targeting the new market that is the female market is the right path to follow.

Being 50% of the population, if we get more young girls/women playing the game then when it's time for their kids to come through they will be led towards the AFL and not the NRL.

It's not a short term strategy that is going to work, it's generational and will take decades for the AFL to get anywhere near the NRL in the NSW and QLD markets.
I have also been in Sydney for about 15 years and agree wholeheartedly with Off Tap It is a slow process. About 2 years ago the North Narrabeen Sports High School took down the Rugby goal posts and installed AFL posts, I nearly ran off the road when I saw first saw them.
Another interesting take on this is that there is now enormous pressure up here on the Big private schools to introduce AFL into their curriculum. This is as a result of the pressure from Parents and the kids themselves. Whilst this may have a huge effect on Rugby, it will have a knock effect for league eventually. As has been said, slow steps.
I assume neither of you have lived on the Gold Coast or in Cairns. If you had, you would know it is a very different situation. General consensus is that the Gold Coast is about 60/40 in favour of rugby league over Aussie rules and the same preferences are closer to 50/50 in Cairns. Rugby union only has a small following on the Gold Coast and an even smaller fanbase in Cairns. In Brisbane or Sydney you'd be looking at a situation closer to 90/10 in favour of the two rugby codes. The private (GPS) schools in Brisbane have an enormous influence in terms of junior sporting preferences and rugby union is by far the most popular sport in that system while the public schools in Brisbane tend to favour rugby league more. I assume the schooling situation in Sydney is very similar. Those historical school sporting allegiances are virtually non-existent on the Gold Coast which has allowed Aussie rules to flourish at the local level.

It always amazes me that people just assume major cities north of the Murray are exactly the same. It's simply not true.
 

BringBackTorps

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I should also point out that rugby union is king at the high school level in Brisbane.[No]
Think of the APS school footy competition in Victoria and that's what you have in Brisbane with GPS rugby union competition[The no. of Vic. private schools playing AF far excede the no. of Qld. private schools playing RU]
RU is played in very few high schools in Brisbane. It is, of course, very strong in Brisbane's small no. of GPS schools. RU does not have the same hegemony in Qld. that AF does have in Vic.- also note my P. V'landys comments in link below, re his concern at the growth of AF in Qld. A. Abdo has also recently expressed concerns re the decline of GR RL in Qld.

In 2019, the GPS system decided to allow full season GPS-wide AF comps. for the first time, due to the strong demand there to play AF.
Other Brisbane private school systems lifted their AF ban in previous years.

Despite what some may say about Brisbane, it IS Broncos town.
I disagree.
Broncos & NRL certainly both dominate SEQ MSM, & general brief "watercooler" conversations.
Broncos' average home crowds, however, of c.29k -45k (depending how successful the Broncos are) are, arguably, very poor- in a one-team, heartland city of 2.45m (with another 700K reasonably close).

AFL FTA broadcast ratings, on the secondary channel, in Brisbane usually attract c. 25% of the NRL broadcasts on the main channel.
This is a good result for the AFL: due to the well known phenomenon that the same program, if switched to the main channel, will usually attract double+ the ratings, cf if it was broadcast (at the same time & day) on a secondary channel.

...regional areas of central Queensland where there is little to no support for our game and most of the residents fiercely oppose the sport in favour of rugby league
I agree.
However, in many regional areas all along the coast of Qld., including CQ, AF clubs are being formed, & are growing. AF has established a niche following, & it is reasonable to expect AF will continue to grow in these regions for the next 20 years.
In non-coastal Qld. inland regions, AF usually has no AF clubs; some areas have a few, but support is minimal.





In Brisbane or Sydney you'd be looking at a situation closer to 90/10 in favour of the two rugby codes.[No, RL & RU are not 9 times stronger!]
In my link #286 above, I referred to P. Rothfield's article, & gave several quotes about the severe decline in GR male contact RL in Sydney's WS.
In 2017 only, GR jnr RL cub nos. "...has fallen as much as 15%". WS is RL heartland!
He quoted an unnamed NRL official saying, re Sydney's WS,

"At this rate, our game will be dead in about 10 years".

Rothfied also said "The NRL admits that whatever it has tried is not working, as its desperation to hang onto players grows".

Why do you think, in 2017, ARLC Chairman J. Grant wanted to establish a $100m emergency rescue Fund" for RL GR?
(And GR male contact RL has continued its decline in NSW, ACT, & Qld. since 2017)





In the "Eventually a 3rd Team in Sydney Thread", there are:-

. c.30+ links, from RL & RU current & former officials & players, & MSM experts, that there has been a significant long term decline in GR male contact RL nos. in Sydney, & throughout NSW & ACT.
Furthermore, in Sydney's NS, ES, & inner WS, GR snr male contact RL has almost collapsed- with GR jnr male contact RL nos. also in a precipitous decline.

. c.30+ links (different to the above) from current & former RL, RU, & soccer officials & players, & MSM experts etc., that GR AF & the AFL are having significant growth in Sydney.

Do you dispute these claims- & if so, in what basis?




Please refer to my posts & links below- & if you disagree with any of the comments &/or stats, provide your reasons for your disagreement.

WWOS G. Vlotis, on 31.8.20, said
"ARLC Chairman P. V'landys says the NRL is very concerned about the state of rugby league in Qld., as AFL begins to make a foothold in the Sunshine State".
V'landys also said, re Qld. NRL "The ratings are poor...there's a big opportunity for the AFL in Qld.". Post#104


AFLQ said, on 20.7.20, a record 12700+ jnr (ie from 8 y.o- 17 y.o) AF club players had signed in the GC-Brisbane-SC. This no. does not include the many thousands of Club Auskick players 5 y.o.- 8 y.o, nor primary & secondary school (govt. & private) AF comp. players. Post #107.
Do you agree?


The QRL said in July 2020 there were c. 5000 jnr RL club players, U6- U12, in c. 498 teams in the RL Brisbane Jnrs comp. (RLBJ comp. includes Greater Brisbane, but does not include Ipswich, & the Ipswich JRL comp.). Post#110.
The 5000 Club players include, also, those many Club players who are playing in Club non-contact tag comps.!

I also provided, from the QRL, the no. of Brisbane RL Club teams in U13-U18- which are MUCH lower, & more threatening, than the U6- U12 nos.!
eg RLBJ Totals: U16 -30 teams, U17 12 teams, U18 14 teams...disastrous! See post#110

This c. 5000 no. (U6-U12 RLBJ) for a Greater Brisbane RL heartland of c. 2.1m (excluding Ipswich) is extraordinarily low, & almost shocking. Do you agree?

(Scroll to posts # 104 107 110)




For the first time since 1991, no Qld. team made the NRL Finals.
Do you agree this suggests that standards of GR RL are falling in Qld.; & if so, why?


The AFL announced 3 weeks ago a new Rights' deal of $946m for 2023-24- an Aust. record.

The NRL, unusually, refuses to advise its reduced deal for Nine to 2022, & Foxtel to 2027. R. Masters wrote in the SMH be believed the NRL was forced to accept a 25% reduction on its previous, pre 28.5.20 deal ie it will become c. $270m pa (($360m- 25%).
The NRL has stated, however, it will be forced to make a permanent cut of $50m pa to its NRL HQ expenditure (which will probably include cutting funds on GR development, as it funds hundreds of NRL Development Officers).

The AFL, therefore, will have further financial advantages, cf the NRL- & is likely to turbocharge its growth in GR marketshare in Qld., NSW, & ACT; & GR male contact RL is likely to decline further.
Do you agree?
 
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Nice thread!

I go to the University of Queensland and just thought I'd share this from last years' market day (soz for poor quality):
1610602788061.png


There was like 100 stalls or something for different clubs and societies and that was the only empty one. I couldn't spot the rugby club for a sec, but then I turned around:

1610602866305.png

No your eyes do not deceive you, that is indeed a Brisbane Broncos themed bouncy house 🤣
 

GC2015

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RU is played in very few high schools in Brisbane. It is, of course, very strong in Brisbane's small no. of GPS schools. RU does not have the same hegemony in Qld. that AF does have in Vic.
Who told you that? I ask because it's simply not correct. Whether its GPS, AIC, TAS etc, virtually every private high school in Brisbane plays RU. The GPS competition has an enormous influence on junior sporting talent. We've even seen plenty of rugby league prospects like Karmichael Hunt and Kalyn Ponga take up scholarships at GPS schools and play RU for their school despite chasing a career in a different code. Getting a scholarship to attend a GPS school in Brisbane is a very prestigious achievement and that cannot be underestimated when discussing sporting influences in a city. Go through the Brisbane Heat Big Bash League team and you'll find almost all their players come from the GPS schools. Whether you like it or not, the GPS system is where most junior talents in Brisbane go to give themselves the best opportunity to succeed as professional sportsmen and/or pursue their academic endeavours. In GPS world, rugby union is king.

In 2019, the GPS system decided to allow full season GPS-wide AF comps. for the first time, due to the strong demand there to play AF. Other Brisbane private school systems lifted their AF ban in previous years.
That's great but Aussie rules has a long way to go before it's anywhere near RU in the GPS system. We're most likely talking multiple decades.

I disagree.
Broncos & NRL certainly both dominate SEQ MSM, & general brief "watercooler" conversations.
Broncos' average home crowds, however, of c.29k -45k (depending how successful the Broncos are) are, arguably, very poor- in a one-team, heartland city of 2.45m (with another 700K reasonably close).
You realise they are by far the team with the highest average home attendance in the NRL, right? Most years the Broncos crack at least 30k in home attendance and the next best team is almost always under 20k. Even though you've chosen to ignore it, their influence in the media is absolutely undeniable. Buy the Courier Mail on any given day during the NRL season and you'll almost always see multiple pages dedicated to the Broncos. Watch the 6pm local news and you'll always see multiple stories on the Broncos and it will likely be reported by a former Bronco like Wally Lewis or Shane Webcke. Listen to Brisbane radio and you'll constantly hear references to the Broncos.

Anyone who says the Broncos don't dominate the Brisbane market is either kidding themselves or doesn't know what they're talking about.

No, RL & RU are not 9 times stronger

Why don't we just look at the total participation numbers of RU & RL vs Aussie rules in Brisbane? I think you'll find 90/10 is pretty close to the split in Brisbane when you compare the two rugby codes against Aussie rules.

I assume you'd find a similar split in Sydney but again, let's just look at the actual participation numbers instead of quoting some random article that talks about a doomsday scenario where rugby league will be dead in 10 years (not going to happen).

For the first time since 1991, no Qld. team made the NRL Finals.
Do you agree this suggests that standards of GR RL are falling in Qld.; & if so, why?
Absolutely not. The majority of Queensland's best RL players don't even play for the Queensland clubs. The best player in the world last year was Cameron Smith and he plays for the Melbourne Storm. Queensland's best player last year was Cameron Munster and he plays for the Melbourne Storm. Queensland's captain last year was Daly Cherry-Evans and he plays for the Manly Sea Eagles. Queensland's best player to miss State of Origin last year through injury was Kalyn Ponga and he plays for the Newcastle Knights. In fact, 19 of the 27 players who represented Queensland last year didn't play for a Queensland club. Sp to answer your question, no I don't think the three Queensland clubs performing poorly in 2020 is indicative of grass roots rugby league standards dropping.
 

Off Tap

Pfft Big 4, we're #1.....
May 13, 2007
1,849
2,184
<---------
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Kalgoorlie Roos, Subiaco
I assume neither of you have lived on the Gold Coast or in Cairns.
I have a bit of an idea and also agree with you.

Firstly, I lived and worked out of 8 Mile Plains for 18 months and that area was stronger for AFL in that we found that everyone at work (about a dozen guys) went for the Bronco's first and then had an AFL team (majority the Lions) that they also followed as a novelty.

That was in 2006 so it was a while ago but the Lions had just come off a three-peat and our owners had some sort of community sponsorship of about $300k a year with the Lions.

Over the next 8 years that I worked for the company (the majority in the NE Qld), as the Lions started to get worse, the conversation about the AFL dropped right off and centred back on the NRL and the Broncos and Cowboys.

I can imagine that talk would be back around the AFL again considering that the Lions are back contending.

In regards to Cairns, I lived in Mackay for 4 years and then Emerald for another 4 years and travelled extensively as part of my work.

One of my cousins actually coached one of their league teams but that was long, long before I arrived in the area. Mackay was strong in that they had grounds specifically in use for the AFL and not shared with the NRL.

I do agree with you that the NE Qld has a strong over-representation of AFL compared to any other region in NSW and QLD but that is not the norm with the rest of each state.

We found that everyone had an NRL team which was the Cowboys for NE Qld and Broncos for SE Qld that they talked about first and then AFL was a distant 2nd. It would be safe to assume that the swing back towards the AFL would be greater now that the Cowboys aren't winning like they used to and the Lions are up and about.
 

Off Tap

Pfft Big 4, we're #1.....
May 13, 2007
1,849
2,184
<---------
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Kalgoorlie Roos, Subiaco
Nice thread!

I go to the University of Queensland and just thought I'd share this from last years' market day (soz for poor quality):
A bit of an irrelevant story perhaps for here but it relates to University so here goes.

The property development company we worked for in SE Qld was a major sponsor of the University Rugby team and the first weekend we arrived from WA was their big sponsors day which was always hard to get tickets to.

As a bit of a thank you to myself and my wife for moving over from WA to work for them they gave us 2 tickets to the luncheon which was a very big deal and the cause of great jealousy.

We went there and sat down with 4 other elderly couples and had an awesome great day talking about everything other than rugby. We didn't follow the sport at all and knew nothing of previous teams or any of their players.

When we arrived back to work on Monday we were immediately swamped by everyone, and I mean everyone, in the office to find out how our day went.

Apparently, we sat next to 4 previous captains of the Australian Union team back in the 60's and 70's and didn't know it. They were legends of the game, all games and scoring record holders at one time or another and not once did we speak about rugby.

Our work colleagues were horrified that we wasted 2 tickets. :D
 

BringBackTorps

Club Legend
Jan 5, 2017
2,327
1,425
AFL Club
GWS
RU is played in very few high schools in Brisbane.
You said my comment is incorrect. Are you seriously suggesting contact RU comps. (ie not including non-contact varieties) are widely played in Brisbane high schools (ie govt schools)? They are not.

Whether its GPS, AIC, TAS etc, virtually every private high school in Brisbane plays RU.
In my other comments, I acknowledged the RU strength in Brisbane private schools.
My discussions & stats. primarily relate to contact RU & RL only in Qld., NSW, ACT- not tag, touch etc non-contact formats.

In the large Catholic jnr & secondary school system in Brisbane, approx. how many play in AF comps.? Ditto contact RL? Ditto contact RU?


That's great but Aussie rules has a long way to go before it's anywhere near RU in the GPS system[Agree]
RU in Brisbane private schools has had almost a 130 year head start, & the GPS AF ban was only lifted after 2019 (The Old Boys weren't happy- but the pro AF parental & student pressure could no longer be ignored; & commercial imperatives- due to the rising popularity of AF- could not be ignored).

Of course RU is a long way ahead now in many private schools, but AF will surely greatly increase its market share in Brisbane (& elsewhere) private schools over the next few decades- that is the incontrovertible benefit of lifting the schools' AF ban. Do you agree?


We're most likely talking multiple decades
I agree. In 2 decades, it is very likely that AF will have a much stronger presence in Brisbane private schools, cf 2020 AF nos.
AF doesn't need to be the no.1 sport in Brisbane RU private schools, to consolidate its strength/challenge RL in Brisbane (& the GC to SC corridor, & the Cairns district. I have accepted that AF has virtually no visible presence in most of rural Qld.- & only has a small niche following in many regional, usually coastal towns- but is growing).


You realise they are by far the team with the highest average home attendance in the NRL, right? Most years the Broncos crack at least 30k [Wow]in home attendance and the next best team is almost always under 20k[Yes, the current NRL average attendance in Aust. of c.16k is very poor, cf AFL]
From 2004-2019, the average Brisbane home crowd was c. 33k. In a one-team RL "heartland" city of c. 2.4m+, with a 52K+ stadium, this is very poor. Do you deny this?
Even some MSM RL experts have lamented this poor Broncos' average.


Even though you've chosen to ignore it, their influence in the media is absolutely undeniable.
I have never denied the Broncos' overwhelming influence in the MSM- it is extremely strong. This reinforces my point (& weakens your point) that Broncos average home crowds of 33k are very poor, considering their "systemic" support, & unique advantage in SEQ.


Buy the Courier Mail on any given day during the NRL season and you'll almost always see multiple pages dedicated to the Broncos. Watch the 6pm local news and you'll always see multiple stories on the Broncos and it will likely be reported by a former Bronco like Wally Lewis or Shane Webcke.
Yes. It, however, has been widely reported that people under 35 very rarely read newspapers, & only a small minority regularly watch TV news- thus the MSM impact is weakened in this demographic.
This trend reinforces my points that AF is on an inexorable rise in the GC-Brisbane-SC corridor, & Cairns district- even with the major disadvantage of AF not having widespread support & coverage in the MSM, it is experiencing strong growth.


Anyone who says the Broncos don't dominate the Brisbane market is either kidding themselves or doesn't know what they're talking about.
I never said, nor implied this.


Why don't we just look at the total participation numbers [Yes!] of RU & RL vs Aussie rules in Brisbane? I think you'll find 90/10[No] is pretty close to the split in Brisbane when you compare the two rugby codes against Aussie rules.
Yes, can you please provide me with the contact-only RL & RU club & school comp. player nos. in Brisbane, God Coast, & Sunshine Coast?

I have already supplied/linked to you the AFLQ 2020 figure of the record 12700 jnr U8-U17 club players in the GC-Brisbane-SC comp. This does not include the many thousands 5 y.o.- 8 y.o. playing club Auskick; & primary & secondary school AF comp. players.

I have already supplied/linked you with the QRL's 24.7.20 statement that, in the Rugby League Brisbane Juniors comp. (ie all of Greater Brisbane, but not including Ipswich, & the Ipswich DJRL comp.), they had c. 5000 Club players, U6-U12, in 498 teams. And the 5000 also includes jnr RL Club comp. tag players!
I also provided you with the FAR lower, & shocking, no. of teams in the RLBJ U13-U18- disastrous for RL, &. possibly ominous for its future.


I assume you'd find a similar split in Sydney [No] but again, let's just look at the actual participation numbers [I do provide these. You don't! Nor do you give links] instead of quoting some random [No. Daily Telegraph, Sydney's main RL paper!] article that talks about a doomsday scenario where rugby league will be dead in 10 years (not going to happen)[But a 15% drop in 1 year in GR male contact RL nos. in Sydney's WS is very serious]
Your incorrectly assume many things- & your above assumption is also certainly incorrect.
Have you read the BF Thread "A Third Team In Sydney, It's Only A Matter Of Time"?

Rothfield's article is NOT a "random article". In the "Third team In Sydney " Thread, there are a total of c. 60+related links from experts.

About 30+ links are from current & former RL, RU, & soccer officials & players, & MSM experts, that GR AF & the AFL are having very strong growth in Sydney.
Another, different 30+ links from current & former RL & RU officials & players, & MSM experts, that (male) contact RL & RU are in a significant, long term decline.

In Sydney's NS, ES, & inner WS, snr GR RL has collapsed- in the WS also, due to a major decline in players & Clubs, District RL comps. have been forced to combine. Ditto jnr male GR contact RL is following a similar trajectory.
(Penrith DRL & South Sydney District RL comps. are still intact- but they, also, have had major declines in GR male contact player nos. & Clubs).

If you can provide any links challenging the above, please post them here.


Absolutely not. The majority of Queensland's best RL players don't even play for the Queensland clubs. The best player in the world last year was Cameron Smith and he plays for the Melbourne Storm
Ol' man C. Smith will retire- or play 1 more year.

Which current NRL players have the same skills & status as A. Johns, B. Slater, C. Smith, C. Cronk, J. Thurston, G. Inglis, D. Lockyer, A. Langer, W. Lewis, A. Beetson, W. Sailor, M. Meninga, G. Tallis & G. Miles?

NRL experts D. Ritchie & P. Gallen recently said the 2020 Qld. SOO team was the worst in the last 30 years.



Why have you ignored these points I made to you:-

. the 2020 RLBJ nos.- U6- U12, c. 5000 (includes 10%+ who are Club tag nos.). Shockingly low in a "heartland" city of 2.1m

. RLBJ: U16-30 teams, U17- 12 teams, U18- 14 teams only...disastrous.

. my references to the concerns from P. V'landys, A. Abdo, & J. Grant about RL's problems, & its many challenges.

I will mention another snr RL figure, P. Beattie, when he was ARLC Chair, who said in 2018, paraphrasing "The NRL must expand, or it will die".

This comment clearly demonstrates, from the most senior RL official, that the NRL has a severe lack of confidence in RL's future, & that it faces many major problems & challenges.

. the ratings' comparison in Brisbane of the Lions & Broncos- despite being on a secondary channel, Lions still gets c. 25 %+ of Broncos' ratings, latter on the main FTA channel.

. all the comments & quotes that P. Rothfield made, re the decline of RL in Sydney's WS, & elsewhere.

. ARLC Chair J. Grant's alarming comments that an emergency $100m fund was urgently required to rescue RL GR.

. the major discrepancy in AFL Rights' deals of $473m pa from 2023-24- & the NRL is likely to be only $270m pa. The AFL will be able to properly fund, & further turbocharge its growth in GR regd. comp. nos. in Qld, NSW, & ACT.

. the NRL covid announcements that, due to its financial pressure, it will make a permanent cut of $50m pa to HQ expenses & funding.
This is likely to reduce GR funding- even though GR male contact RL nos. are in a significant long term decline.


Furthermore

. at GR jnr contact RL levels, there are widespread concerns, & acceptance, amongst RL experts (& parents!) that large weight differences in jnrs are having a very significant negative impact on male jnr. regd. nos.
Do you dispute this- if so, on what basis?

. in 2019, the combined membership nos. of Broncos/Titans & Lions/Suns were c. 45k to 33k respectively
. in 2019, the combined membership nos. of all the NSW NRL clubs & Swans/Giants were c. 90k- to170k respectively.
This is more evidence your claims of 9 times superior fan nos. of the NRL vs. AFL (In Qld. & NSW) is invalid.
 
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