Expansion AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

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Freomaniac

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Overall, I agree with your comment.

I would say Brisbane/SEQ is at least equal to Sydney, certainly when you factor grass roots participation and relative population.

The main two advantages the swans have over the lions are:
-much better on-field performance for most of the last 15 years
-a geographic concentration of support

And I'm not sure of the second (in terms of whether there is similar in brisbane or whether the geographic concentration would mean much if there was a decade of terrible on field performance)
Brisbane Since that 2004 Grand final had made finals in 2009, then went through a decade of not making finals now is making finals in 2019 and 2020. Not making finals from 2010-18 has hurt the crowd attendances to the point only the rusted on and Hardcore fans rocked up. Overall, having both Brisbane and Gold coast not making finals from 2011-18 hurt the state of Queensland footy.

On the other hand, Both GWS and Swans making finals in 2016-18 helped the health of Aussie Rules in NSW. Hell, GWS memberships have risen to 30,000. We have had both NSW sides face each other in finals as well. Swans since 2004 has won 2 flags in 2015 and 2012. they Also lost 3 grand finals in 2006, 2014 and 2016. Sydney has had some good onfield success in the last 10-20 years. I think the swans can have another 2-3 years of bottom 6 finishes and bounce back up to make finals again while still having repectable crowds in the rebuild years.

The only thing that Queensland has got going that is better compared to NSW in Australian rules footy is they have a half decent state league in the QAFL. Theres always going to be some Queensland talent that gets drafted into AFL teams.
 

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GC2015

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Whats with the AFL HQ trying to Hitler the fcking country and take over the entire continent? Just appreciate and look after the fans that actually want to watch AFL and stop with the obsession of trying to infiltrate NSW and QLD.
It's a simple numbers game. Over 50% of our nation's population live in NSW or QLD. It would be foolish to not attempt to grow the game in the first and third most populous areas of Australia. It's the same reason the NFL have gone back to Los Angeles despite failing in that market multiple times in the past. If the AFL had not prioritised expanding the game then your club wouldn't exist and the VFL would have gone broke. It's a necessary step forward.

There's a reason why the AFL aren't putting a lot of effort into Tasmania. It just doesn't make sense for them to do so from a numbers perspective and what they are currently doing is really just out of goodwill towards a small state that has always supported the game. The same can be said about the Northern Territory.

What does make sense from a long-term perspective is growing the game at the grassroots level in NSW and QLD. The AFL would be very happy with the deal they struck with the QLD government recently which included an agreement to construct more footy ovals and junior clubs throughout Queensland. You only have to look at the massive boom in junior female participation in QLD over the last 3-5 years to see it's working. We're also seeing a revival of genuine Queensland AFL stars with the likes of Dayne Zorko, Harris Andrews and Charlie Cameron coming to the fore. We haven't seen this since the late 90s when Voss, Akermanis and Mal Michael dominated the league.

We're attracting more people to the game now than ever before but the growth opportunities exist in NSW and QLD and that doesn't look like changing any time soon. The growth model makes sense and is working.
 
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Mister M

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It's a simple numbers game. Over 50% of our nation's population live in NSW or QLD. It would be foolish to not attempt to grow the game in the first and third most populous areas of Australia. It's the same reason the NFL have gone back to Los Angeles despite failing in that market multiple times in the past. If the AFL had not prioritised expanding the game then your club wouldn't exist and the VFL would have gone broke. It's a necessary step forward.
This is super important to remember in my opinion.

Biased data (I'm aware that GWS was involved in 2019)-- but let's look at the TV ratings for the 2009 AFL Grand Final compared to the 2019 AFL Grand Final

2009 AFL Grand Final2019 AFL Grand Final
Overall2,704,0002,197,000
Melbourne1,426,000991,000
Sydney309,000372,000
Brisbane254,000317,000
Adelaide403,000232,000
Perth312,000286,000


Half a million less people watched last years Grand Final--- yet there was more people watching in both Sydney & Brisbane in 2019 than in 2009. That's why it's an important number game because thats' where there is a potential new audience.
 

iluvparis

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What would it take?
Could this covid season be the precursor?
Two QLD teams, both competitive, one likely a top 4 team
The Courier Fail owned NRL team being less than garbage
A Grand Final in QLD?
Could the seeds laid be enough?
Haven't read the whole thread but the answer would be that this has been a disaster for the AFL - the state of the game is absolutely putrid while the NRL has made rule changes to open their game a lot more and has appeared a far far superior product for much of the year.
 

Mister M

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Haven't read the whole thread but the answer would be that this has been a disaster for the AFL - the state of the game is absolutely putrid while the NRL has made rule changes to open their game a lot more and has appeared a far far superior product for much of the year.
How much NRL have you watched this season?

Continuing the play for 6-again has made the game slightly more enjoyable--- but removing one of the referees has lead to some massive howlers in regards to calls and an over reliance on the 'Captains challenge' to go to the video ref. If anything, the captains challenge has just slowed the flow of the game down and teams are often using it late in the game just to get a breather rather than genuinely question a result from the referee.

From a competition wide point of view there's been a massive difference in quality between the Top 5 and the rest of the competition. With two rounds of the NRL season to go the Top 2 spots are basically guaranteed and the Top 8 is already been decided. The final few rounds of the H&A season are practically useless IMO.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Whats with the AFL HQ trying to Hitler the fcking country and take over the entire continent? Just appreciate and look after the fans that actually want to watch AFL and stop with the obsession of trying to infiltrate NSW and QLD.
Have you heard of this thing called capitalism? It's based on the principle of making money and adapting to change in the market, or perishing. There are millions of people that might actually want to watch AFL in these states if it had a strong enough presence.
 

Angus Young

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This is super important to remember in my opinion.

Biased data (I'm aware that GWS was involved in 2019)-- but let's look at the TV ratings for the 2009 AFL Grand Final compared to the 2019 AFL Grand Final

2009 AFL Grand Final2019 AFL Grand Final
Overall2,704,0002,197,000
Melbourne1,426,000991,000
Sydney309,000372,000
Brisbane254,000317,000
Adelaide403,000232,000
Perth312,000286,000


Half a million less people watched last years Grand Final--- yet there was more people watching in both Sydney & Brisbane in 2019 than in 2009. That's why it's an important number game because thats' where there is a potential new audience.
Now that the AFL have finally woken up at put it at night watch these figures sky rocket.

Nothing will come close anymore.
 

Johnny Bananas

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How much NRL have you watched this season?

Continuing the play for 6-again has made the game slightly more enjoyable--- but removing one of the referees has lead to some massive howlers in regards to calls and an over reliance on the 'Captains challenge' to go to the video ref. If anything, the captains challenge has just slowed the flow of the game down and teams are often using it late in the game just to get a breather rather than genuinely question a result from the referee.

From a competition wide point of view there's been a massive difference in quality between the Top 5 and the rest of the competition. With two rounds of the NRL season to go the Top 2 spots are basically guaranteed and the Top 8 is already been decided. The final few rounds of the H&A season are practically useless IMO.
Not only that, it looks like the difference in quality is being exacerbated by the 6 again rule, since poorer teams seem to jump the gun more, probably because if they let the better team spread the ball quickly they'll get killed on the outside.
 

Freomaniac

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Overall, I agree with your comment.

I would say Brisbane/SEQ is at least equal to Sydney, certainly when you factor grass roots participation and relative population.

The main two advantages the swans have over the lions are:
-much better on-field performance for most of the last 15 years
-a geographic concentration of support

And I'm not sure of the second (in terms of whether there is similar in brisbane or whether the geographic concentration would mean much if there was a decade of terrible on field performance)
I do agree with most of your comments.

Again when it comes to Grass roots local/Amateur footy, Both Brisbane and Gold coast have similar numbers to NSW.

Again, As bad as both Brisbane Lions and Gold coast suns were on the field in that 2011-18 Period, There has been a few Queenland born or Queensland based Players in the QAFL has been drafted to the AFL clubs. So there is something done right over there.

I dont expect the QAFL teenagers to be as Strong as the WAFL, SANFL, VFL and TAC Cup. If some teenagers are talented and do stand out, then they are likely to be picked up.

I also Agree the Swans have those 2 advantages over Brisbane with better on field success in the last 15 years and a larger geographical area of support.

I mean you can say the same thing Comparing GWS to the Suns. As the GWS giants has had some on field and off field success in playing and winning finals and having 30,000 GWS members.

the Greater western sydney has a spread of at least 100-200 kms. Not to mention a massive spread of 2-3 million people. Suns have a small area at the Gold coast and surrounding suburbs and a population of only 5-600,000.

We all know the Bandwagon effect at Brisbane: the gabba was regularly sold out when Brisbane won GFs from 2001-3. When Brisbane had that Barren period of 2011-18, only the hardcore or the rusted on Brisbane Lions fans rocked up when the team was garbage. Had Gold coast managed to get similar on field success like GWS did from 2016-19, Dead certain Gold coast stadium would of been sold out regularly too.
 

Roobs321

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Times I've lived in NSW:
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Yes Swans, that means I expect a talisman gratitude cheque in the mail.

Times I've lived in QLD:
2009-early 2010
2018-2020

You too Lions! Expect a bailiff's writ on October 26th!
 

werdna78

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We all know the Bandwagon effect at Brisbane: the gabba was regularly sold out when Brisbane won GFs from 2001-3. When Brisbane had that Barren period of 2011-18, only the hardcore or the rusted on Brisbane Lions fans rocked up when the team was garbage. Had Gold coast managed to get similar on field success like GWS did from 2016-19, Dead certain Gold coast stadium would of been sold out regularly too.
I think the bandwagon effect applies to all clubs, not just Brisbane. Look how many Richmond supporters have come out of the woodwork since they won a couple of premierships. People like winners.
 

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PhatBoy

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Not only that, it looks like the difference in quality is being exacerbated by the 6 again rule, since poorer teams seem to jump the gun more, probably because if they let the better team spread the ball quickly they'll get killed on the outside.

Can't speak for the other teams at the top end of the table but mine - the Roosters - has been soundly beaten in the set-restart count in most of the games I've watched.

I don't think the disparity in talent and quality of teams is any bigger than that in AFL. Before last night arguably the most in-form team in the comp was 6th, one of only two teams to take points off Penrith is in 7th, and any of the top 5 if they click could win.
 

RUNVS

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This is super important to remember in my opinion.

Biased data (I'm aware that GWS was involved in 2019)-- but let's look at the TV ratings for the 2009 AFL Grand Final compared to the 2019 AFL Grand Final

2009 AFL Grand Final2019 AFL Grand Final
Overall2,704,0002,197,000
Melbourne1,426,000991,000
Sydney309,000372,000
Brisbane254,000317,000
Adelaide403,000232,000
Perth312,000286,000


Half a million less people watched last years Grand Final--- yet there was more people watching in both Sydney & Brisbane in 2019 than in 2009. That's why it's an important number game because thats' where there is a potential new audience.
You also have to remember that the 2009 Grand Final was a really good Grand Final while the 2019 Grand Final was over at quarter time. I am not sure about anyone else but I already switched off by quarter time, and I bet a lot of other people did too. No one switched off on the 2009 Grand Final.
 

iluvparis

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How much NRL have you watched this season?

Continuing the play for 6-again has made the game slightly more enjoyable--- but removing one of the referees has lead to some massive howlers in regards to calls and an over reliance on the 'Captains challenge' to go to the video ref. If anything, the captains challenge has just slowed the flow of the game down and teams are often using it late in the game just to get a breather rather than genuinely question a result from the referee.

From a competition wide point of view there's been a massive difference in quality between the Top 5 and the rest of the competition. With two rounds of the NRL season to go the Top 2 spots are basically guaranteed and the Top 8 is already been decided. The final few rounds of the H&A season are practically useless IMO.
Fair - the refs have been truly horrendous throughout the season in the NRL - I can't disagree. Thankfully the AFL is umpired by a much superior brand of humans that never make mistakes.....oh wait.

And the quality differential is not an issue - you want good teams to freely beat up on the crap rather than the sh*t teams being able to be artificially competitive. 2011 was a great year in the AFL when you saw outstanding sides like Geelong and Collingwood mercilessly flog pretenders week after week playing superb football. Otherwise we may as well just toss a coin to see who wins each game if you want the comp to be 'competitive'
 

Johnny Bananas

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I don't think the disparity in talent and quality of teams is any bigger than that in AFL. Before last night arguably the most in-form team in the comp was 6th, one of only two teams to take points off Penrith is in 7th, and any of the top 5 if they click could win.
Okay, but you're talking about talent disparity within the top 8. I'm talking about talent disparity across the competition. With most of two rounds to go in the NRL, 8th leads 9th by three wins. With most of one round to go in the AFL, 8th leads 9th by one win and would lose the tiebreaker if points were equal. There's much more to play for in the AFL, whereas the last two rounds in the NRL are meaningless for anything other than seeing who wins the spoon. This is what I mean by a disparity.
 

PhatBoy

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Okay, but you're talking about talent disparity within the top 8. I'm talking about talent disparity across the competition. With most of two rounds to go in the NRL, 8th leads 9th by three wins. With most of one round to go in the AFL, 8th leads 9th by one win and would lose the tiebreaker if points were equal. There's much more to play for in the AFL, whereas the last two rounds in the NRL are meaningless for anything other than seeing who wins the spoon. This is what I mean by a disparity.
Thats true but concisdering they haven't been home for 5 months the Warriors would almost certainly bridge that gap and up until two weeks ago the Tigers - who everyone acknowledges are easily good enough to play top eight footy - were in the mix as well.

i don't think having a broader cross-section of teams log-jammed in the middle of the table is grounds to back up the strength of a competition. It just means there's less properly decent sides and more mediocre ones. To me at least anyway
 

iluvparis

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Okay, but you're talking about talent disparity within the top 8. I'm talking about talent disparity across the competition. With most of two rounds to go in the NRL, 8th leads 9th by three wins. With most of one round to go in the AFL, 8th leads 9th by one win and would lose the tiebreaker if points were equal. There's much more to play for in the AFL, whereas the last two rounds in the NRL are meaningless for anything other than seeing who wins the spoon. This is what I mean by a disparity.
Sure - but this has nothing to do with the quality of the product - unless you are going to argue a league is much more exciting that has tons of mediocre teams that fight for 6th to 12th - yay!
 

imadodgyumpire

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Okay, but you're talking about talent disparity within the top 8. I'm talking about talent disparity across the competition. With most of two rounds to go in the NRL, 8th leads 9th by three wins. With most of one round to go in the AFL, 8th leads 9th by one win and would lose the tiebreaker if points were equal. There's much more to play for in the AFL, whereas the last two rounds in the NRL are meaningless for anything other than seeing who wins the spoon. This is what I mean by a disparity.
This generalisation is a pile of garbage playing on the ignorance of those that don't follow both codes.

Most of the time the NRL ladder has had a greater bottleneck for positions than what the AFL ladder has had, but no AFL fan has given a ****. But now an outlier of a season is being used as a point against the NRL to boost the AFL.
 

PhatBoy

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This generalisation is a pile of garbage playing on the ignorance of those that don't follow both codes.

Most of the time the NRL ladder has had a greater bottleneck for positions than what the AFL ladder has had, but no AFL fan has given a ****. But now an outlier of a season is being used as a point against the NRL to boost the AFL.

I'm not biased towards one comp of the other. I literally started following both on the same weekend when I was 5. The quality of the NRL this year as a spectacle has been light years ahead of the AFL.
 

Johnny Bananas

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This generalisation is a pile of garbage playing on the ignorance of those that don't follow both codes.

Most of the time the NRL ladder has had a greater bottleneck for positions than what the AFL ladder has had, but no AFL fan has given a ****. But now an outlier of a season is being used as a point against the NRL to boost the AFL.
We're talking about the effects of the six again rule on the competition, do keep up. Stephen Kearney directly blamed the six again rule for lopsided scores in Warriors games before he was sacked.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Sure - but this has nothing to do with the quality of the product - unless you are going to argue a league is much more exciting that has tons of mediocre teams that fight for 6th to 12th - yay!
The point was that the talent disparity that already existed may have been exacerbated by the the six again rule, leading to a big gulf between the better and worse teams, and more lopsided scorelines. That's how it relates to the quality of the product. You're free to disagree, we can all like different things.
 

BringBackTorps

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Growth of the code in Queensland will continue to be a generational phenomenon. It is brilliant to have a national Grand Final at the Gabba - but real impacts may not be tangible for another 10-20 years. And that's just fine.
Some of the best advancement work in the Brisbane area was completed by Bruce Andrew (1950s) and Joe Grant (1960s - 1980s), particularly in improving junior and school programs - but you won't hear much about them.
In the meantime, anyone interested in purchasing a 1,104-page book? Available at www.q150.net.au/shop/

View attachment 962688
The NRL, re its official regd. "participant" nos., often quotes a total no. only (which includes non-contact one-off Gala Days, Community events, short term school programs etc.; & touch/tag competition nos. also).
Also, when it quotes official regd. Club player nos., many of these players are only involved in a RL club playing non-contact touch/tag Competition matches (which many RL clubs now also run).

Due to your direct links with the authors of this superb book on AF in Qld., is there a possibility you (or your contacts) could provide info. on the number of jnr. male (U6- U18) RL Club players playing contact RL in:-

. Brisbane (with separate nos. for Greater Brisbane, not inc. Ipswich area; & also Ipswich Junior RL comp.)
. Gold Coast
. Sunshine Coast

Ditto for snr male contact RL players in these 3 areas.

Ditto for jnr & snr female contact RL club nos.

Much appreciated if you can assist.
 
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