Expansion AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

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Johnny Bananas

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i don't think the best athletes for AFL are ever going to come from the general talent pool of rugby league. There may be a very small section of league players who would make the physical crossover comfortably but I think it would be in the minority. I love league but the best players in it - save for maybe a James Tedesco or someone, gee I can't see a lot of them that would have anything to offer in AFL.
I mentioned four above. I also think Vunivalu with his leap, mobility and contested marking would've made a great forward, but they don't play the game in Fiji.
 

PhatBoy

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I mentioned four above. I also think Vunivalu with his leap, mobility and contested marking would've made a great forward, but they don't play the game in Fiji.

We are seeing with Ratugolea the up and downsides of players with that level of athleticism but with now real grounding in the sport, is certainly brings with it some advantages but also plenty of drawbacks.

Who were the others you mentioned? I did scroll back through a few pages but didn't find the post you mentioned.
 

Bomberboyokay

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Ok, slight exageration as I know my mum for one doesn't watch it
In the 5-City metro markets, 10 achieved a figure of 1.44 million viewers for the race broadcast.

The peak audience figures for the event were marginally higher at 1.975 million nationally (1.483 million metro)

The 2019 ratings figures are a record low for the event, and were well down on last year’s numbers. The result will be a considerable disappointment for the network.
Australia's population grew by 1.4 per cent during the year ending 31 December 2019, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Demography Director Lauren Ford said: "The population at 31 December 2019 was 25.5 million people, following an annual increase of 349,800 people."
 
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PhatBoy

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Sigh. Yes. I know. As stated earlier, it is quite easy to type in 'Melbourne Cup ratings' when you have internet access and I can see exactly the same figures you can. And yes, I acknowledge that no concrete statistical measure is ever, ever going to back my view. However as their literally IS no proper statistical measure - it's not like a census - I'm allowed the speculate all I like.

As said, I'm not trying to win a 'my sport is better than your sport' contest as I actually love AFL, and since Northerly retired basically haven't cared about horseracing and certainly not about the Melbourne Cup which is turning into a worse and worse race every year. No ratings system is every going to be able to measure it accurately against most other events because it is held at about 3.10 on a Tuesday afternoon when most people are at work but still find a way to watch it. Oztam boxes - which I have - is not going to capture me watching the race because I'm at work. With, last year - probably not this year - roughly 120 people standing near me watching it on one screen. A scenario that would be replicated in many, many places. And yes I'm sure in some smaller capacity that happens in the AFL as I'm certain many clubs would have grand final screenings in their sponsor's bar or, as I did once, people watching it in a cinema.
 

Johnny Bananas

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We are seeing with Ratugolea the up and downsides of players with that level of athleticism but with now real grounding in the sport, is certainly brings with it some advantages but also plenty of drawbacks.
Yes, but he came to the game fairly late because it wasn't in his family's culture. Naitanui by contrast came to the game earlier despite being from the same background, and built good football skills.

Who were the others you mentioned? I did scroll back through a few pages but didn't find the post you mentioned.
Apologies, it seems I only mentioned one of them in this thread, and had mentioned the others elsewhere. They were:
  1. Darren Lockyer, who started out playing Australian rules until he moved to Roma where there were no clubs, so he switched to rugby league.
  2. Tom Trbojevic, who was in the Swans Academy but left to follow his brother to Manly.
  3. Kalyn Ponga, who played Australian rules at school and very nearly signed with the Brisbane Lions.
  4. Isaac Heeney, who grew up playing rugby league but switched due to the Swans Academy's support.
To the above I could also add Charlie Cameron, who played rugby league and union until he moved to WA at age 18.
 

PhatBoy

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Yes, but he came to the game fairly late because it wasn't in his family's culture. Naitanui by contrast came to the game earlier despite being from the same background, and built good football skills.


Apologies, it seems I only mentioned one of them in this thread, and had mentioned the others elsewhere. They were:
  1. Darren Lockyer, who started out playing Australian rules until he moved to Roma where there were no clubs, so he switched to rugby league.
  2. Tom Trbojevic, who was in the Swans Academy but left to follow his brother to Manly.
  3. Kalyn Ponga, who played Australian rules at school and very nearly signed with the Brisbane Lions.
  4. Isaac Heeney, who grew up playing rugby league but switched due to the Swans Academy's support.
To the above I could also add Charlie Cameron, who played rugby league and union until he moved to WA at age 18.

Ponga certainly, he has the engine to do it and generally has good hands and footskills. Locky kicked the ball like an AFL player. I think he would have struggled with the lateral movement of AFL later in his career. When he was at his physical peak as a fullback I don't doubt that he could have handled it. He had to rely more and more on his game sense and passing game in the second half of his career (which was pretty damn good). Not sure about Turbo, that's interesting that he was in the Swans academy, he's obviously lightning on his feet but his other skills don't kind of strike me as transitioning. I think fullback is where you'd be looking for the best credentialed guys to switch.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Ponga certainly, he has the engine to do it and generally has good hands and footskills. Locky kicked the ball like an AFL player. I think he would have struggled with the lateral movement of AFL later in his career. When he was at his physical peak as a fullback I don't doubt that he could have handled it. He had to rely more and more on his game sense and passing game in the second half of his career (which was pretty damn good). Not sure about Turbo, that's interesting that he was in the Swans academy, he's obviously lightning on his feet but his other skills don't kind of strike me as transitioning. I think fullback is where you'd be looking for the best credentialed guys to switch.
A lot of skills could have been developed if these players played Australian rules primarily in their childhood and continued with it through their teens and early 20s. They're all wonder athletes with speed and strength, the ball skills and AR game instincts could have followed, as they did for Charlie.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Also in the women's game, I was just reading about Courtney Hodder, who earned three U18 AA selections, then switched to rugby and scored six tries in a Super W game, and now she's back in Australian rules and has signed for the Lions. I'm glad such a top athlete hasn't been lost to another code.
 

PhatBoy

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Also in the women's game, I was just reading about Courtney Hodder, who earned three U18 AA selections, then switched to rugby and scored six tries in a Super W game, and now she's back in Australian rules and has signed for the Lions. I'm glad such a top athlete hasn't been lost to another code.
To be fair at the moment as all those sports for women are still in their relative infancy, if you're good at one you're generally fairly good at another.

Very very very blanket statement I know but where I'm from you can basically follow the AFL girls on a Saturday to their league tag games on a Sunday and it will be the same half dozen girls that stand out in every team
 

Dr Awkward

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What I find is a good sign, is how open armed the QLD government has been to the AFL. They are making government led pitches to host AFL events. That must mean they see it as politically feasible, which is surprising to me but good news.

You would never see the Vic state government talk openly about trying to attract rugby games / events
 

PhatBoy

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What I find is a good sign, is how open armed the QLD government has been to the AFL. They are making government led pitches to host AFL events. That must mean they see it as politically feasible, which is surprising to me but good news.

You would never see the Vic state government talk openly about trying to attract rugby games / events
perhaps not on this scale but don’t they have to bid to get state of origin?
 

Billy ray

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Hell no
I haven’t watched any horse racing, Melbourne cup or anything, in like 20 years. Not even a snippet on news or sports channels. As soon as i hear that sound of a racecaller (why do they all sound the same?) i switch over or off.

ive also probably watched in total about 10 mins of rugby leage in that same time. The first 10 mins of the state of origin that was from perth stadium.
 

BringBackTorps

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1. As of 21.7.20, & despite a very late start to a shortened season, a record c. 12,700 Club jnrs (8 y.o-17 y.o) have registered to play comp. AF in the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor. This does not include many thousands of Club Auskick nos., for 5y.o - 8y.o.; nor does it include primary & secondary school (both gov. & private), where AF competition regd. nos are also thriving.
The GPS introduced full season, for all year levels, AF inter school comps. in 2020- adding to all the other non-GPS Brisbane area private school AF comps.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...uld-we-should-we.1213389/page-8#post-66315910
(scroll to my post #188 for details).

AF is having significant growth, & the regd. Club jnr competition nos. are now approaching RL jnr club contact nos. for the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor (ie not including Ipswich & Toowoomba). This similarity in nos. does not include RL tag & touch nos.

The boom in AF- now matching RL contact nos.- would have been greeted with incredulity & mockery if someone dared to utter it prior to 1987.

In rural Qld., AF is very weak. In regional Qld., it has a small presence- except for the Cairns district, where it is strong.

AF GR nos. will not overtake RL in Qld. the next 10-20 years- it is impossible to predict beyond that. A very clear number 2 sport, to RL, is certainly attainable in the near future- & would be a great achievement for the AFL.



2. In the crucial 16- 39 y.o, 18- 49, & 25- 54 age groups, televised AFL games in Brisbane are attracting a higher % of Brisbane viewers, cf Brisbane viewers of NRL games in similar age groups. "AFL skews young".
This has strategic implications for the future growth of AF in Qld. NRL may be facing a demographic timebomb.

On total raw nos., the NRL easily outrates the AFL in Qld.

(scroll to my post #3278 for details).













EDIT:


3. GCFC, when it was competitive in 2014, had several Metricon crowds from 20k- 24k+. Brisbane Lions, also, when competitive, have had many crowds from 30k- c. 35k. There is a strong latent following in both areas.

Many parents have concerns re large weight disparities/injuries in junior RL. These factors assist GR AF recruitment.

AF is making significant progress in many schools throughout SEQ, & some regional areas Qld. Contact RL struggles in many public & private schools in the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast areas.

Adding a second NRL club in Brisbane (pop.2.4m), as seems very likely according to P. V'landys, would provide the NRL, & GR RL, with a big boost.
Some consider, however, if Brisbane 2 came to fruition, that the GC Titans (owned privately, by a car dealership business- the industry is suffering) may be significantly disadvantaged.

A. Johns, B. Fiddler, P. Gallen, P. Gould & many other RL experts* say there is insufficient depth of talent to go to 17 teams- the drop in average player standard would be too big. A. Johns, to raise skill levels, wants the NRL to revert to a 12 team comp.
P. Gould has predicted twice in the last year that he expects 2 Sydney NRL clubs to merge or relocate- so Brisbane 2 could eventuate from this restructure.

*also legends B. Slater & C. Smith say the NRL should not expand past 16 teams.



4. Greg Alexander, Penrith RL legend, & now a former Penrith District ( Western Sydney RL heartland) jnr league coach, on 20.4.20 called for national leadership from the NRL CEO to revive NSW & Qld. RL GR.

He said

"Junior rugby league is struggling, but no one wants to admit it. They get numbers, and they say its slightly increasing- but its not slightly increasing. It's decreasing. They've been clever in the way they've used touch footy numbers and other numbers- female numbers- to make the game look like it's doing ok, but its not doing ok at grassroots level".

 
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NoobPie

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Play the man? I've maintained the same argument the whole way through.
You've played the man at every point and shown no aptitude of mounting a reasoned argument or presenting evidence that supports a position


I'm more than capable of establishing what is a recorded figure and what is just anecdotal speculation but seriously
And yet have demonstrated the complete opposite

- and I much prefer AFL to horseracing mind you - in my 36 years on this planet I have not seen a skerrick of evidence to suggest that the AFL grand final or any other sporting event could come close to the exposure that the Melbourne Cup gets.

And you've not produced a sherrick of evidence and have had actual evidence provided that supports the contrary.


Again, I'll apologise for the third/fourth time for the allaged 'abuse' of using a throwaway term such as 'seek help.' Once more, sorry if it upset anyone.

Again I've played the man, no doubt, by re-establishing my position on a fairly straightforward debate.

Event size is a factor - because the actual argument you're trying to referee is about which is the biggest and most watched sporting event in Australia. I'd say event size is a fairly important factor when determining which event has the biggest size.
Like I clearly stated earlier. There was no offence taken at you telling me to "seek help", it was that taking that approach in combination with your virtue signalling you presented as a ridiculous fool

And again you have not produced a "skerrick" of evidence or a vaguely defensible argument.

You clearly don't actually know what "evidence" or "argument" is

This statement is correct tautologically

event size is a fairly important factor when determining which event has the biggest size.
You don't fcking say
 

PhatBoy

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You've played the man at every point and shown no aptitude of mounting a reasoned argument or presenting evidence that supports a position




And yet have demonstrated the complete opposite




And you've not produced a sherrick of evidence and have had actual evidence provided that supports the contrary.




Like I clearly stated earlier. There was no offence taken at you telling me to "seek help", it was that taking that approach in combination with your virtue signalling you presented as a ridiculous fool

And again you have not produced a "skerrick" of evidence or a vaguely defensible argument.

You clearly don't actually know what "evidence" or "argument" is

This statement is correct



You don't fcking say
ok
 

Professor Knowall

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Football is WAY bigger in the NRL states than NRL is in the football states. We should probably be happy with that.
That about somes it up. The thread title is probably a bridge to far in the foreseeable future but Australian Football is far more advanced and popular in Qld then NRL is anywhere outside NSW/Qld.

There are 11 Queenslanders on the Lions list and 12 with Gold Coast (and some 40 Queenslanders altogether on AFL club lists). Compare this to there being no Victorians whatsoever on Storm's list after 20 years (and stuff-all players from any state outside NSW/Qld on any NRL list).

Also consider TV ratings - e.g. last night NRL out rated AFL close to 4 to 1 in Brisbane (130,000 to 34,000) - whereas in Melbourne the AFL out rated the NRL about 37 to 1 (330,000 to 9,000) - https://tvtonight.com.au/2020/08/friday-28-august-2020.html
 

NoobPie

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That about somes it up. The thread title is probably a bridge to far in the foreseeable future but Australian Football is far more advanced and popular in Qld then NRL is anywhere outside NSW/Qld.

There are 11 Queenslanders on the Lions list and 12 with Gold Coast (and some 40 Queenslanders altogether on AFL club lists). Compare this to there being no Victorians whatsoever on Storm's list after 20 years (and stuff-all players from any state outside NSW/Qld on any NRL list).

Also consider TV ratings - e.g. last night NRL out rated AFL close to 4 to 1 in Brisbane (130,000 to 34,000) - whereas in Melbourne the AFL out rated the NRL about 37 to 1 (330,000 to 9,000) - https://tvtonight.com.au/2020/08/friday-28-august-2020.html

And we are talking a broncos game versus two vic teams.

Also worth noting in the 16 to 39 age group there were more viewers in Brisbane than Adelaide or Perth

1598690806883.png
 

Johnny Bananas

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There are 11 Queenslanders on the Lions list and 12 with Gold Coast (and some 40 Queenslanders altogether on AFL club lists). Compare this to there being no Victorians whatsoever on Storm's list after 20 years (and stuff-all players from any state outside NSW/Qld on any NRL list).
Pretty sure the Storm have had at least three Victorian locals on their list in the past, it's just they all play in England or for other NRL clubs now. But they've certainly never had a Voss or Aker-level superstar.
 

NoobPie

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Pretty sure the Storm have had at least three Victorian locals on their list in the past, it's just they all play in England or for other NRL clubs now. But they've certainly never had a Voss or Aker-level superstar.
Or Zorko, or Andrews, or Cameron, or Beams etc
 

Roddy

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Some of these facts are mindblowing, but all you really have to look at are the teams both leagues have in non-heartland ststes. Football has 4 teams in NSW and Qld, League has one team in Vic, Tas, SA, WA and NT.
 

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