Just received the 2014 AFL Prospectus and West Coasts profile by Champion Data is below. As it has taken me far too long to write the below, I am only going to upload 5-10 player profiles in the next couple of days, and will finish the rest prior to the end of the month. If you are interested in a profile please let me know and I will upload.
WEST COAST EAGLES
Average Age 23years 339 Days - 12th in the AFL
Average Games - 70.1 - 6th in the AFL
Height - 188.7cm - 5th in the AFL
Draw Difficulty - 14th
WINGS CLIPPED:
Into his second rebuild of the West Coast list, John Worsfold appeared destined to take out another premiership at his beloved club. After 2007 and the Chris Judd/Ben Cousins departures, the Eagles spent a few years in the wilderness, picking up early draft picks and developing another title contender,
It all appeared on track after a big spike in 2011. The Eagles played off in a preliminary final after finishing 16th the year before, then backed up the next year with a fifth-place finish. In February 2013 the Eagles were equal second flag favourites with reigning premier Sydney.
West Coast was cherry ripe to make genuine assault on the flag with the experience of Dean Cox, Daniel Kerr, Matt Priddis and Darren Glass still playing outstanding football. There was a big group of young Eagles between the ages of 24-28 in Beau Waters, Shannon Hurn, Mark LeCras, Matt Rosa, Sam Butler, Josh Kennedy, Chris Masten and Eric Mackenzie. Finally the young in Nic Natanui, Luke Shuey, Scott Selwood, Jack Darling and Andrew Gaff were all under 23 when the first ball was bounced in 2013. It was the perfect mix of the old, players at their peak and yhe gun kids, but things went terribly wrong. Injuries were the main culprit but there was also a big drop in form from a lot of key players.
In 2012 the Eagles squeezed 227 games out of their their top 11 ranked players during the H&A season, missing just 15 as a group. Last season the same players only managed just 167 for a total of 75 missed, with only Cox, Priddis and Gaff playing 20 or more games each.
The alarm bells were ringing earlu when Naitanui was sidelined for most of the pre-season. He came back strongly in Round 6 against the Bulldogs, but limped to 11 games and was put on ice after round 17. Shuey missed eight games, Waters played only seven after and ll-Australian year in 2012 and Hurn wasn't seen after Round 13. Rosa and Kerr player Chris Masten. Given Masten was only 10th of this top-11 from 2012 it's no surprise the Eagles plummeted. On average these players had a Champion Data ranking of 99 points per game in 2012 but in 2013 that average dropped to 92. There were some significant declines as well with Naitanui, Shuey, Waters, Gaff and Rosa all falling by more than 10 points per game. So many injuries to so many quality players would knock any side around - the Eagles had a legitimate excuse.
NEW EAGLE HAS LANDED:
So out goes "Woosha" and in comes ex-Hawks assistant Adam Simpson. While a 13th placing may seem all doom and gloom, Simpson has some positives to work with.
From 2013 evidence, the forward line works. While West Coast averaged 10 fewer points per game than the season before, the supply dried up big time. The Eagles averaged just 48 inside 50’s per match – ranked 14th after ranking seventh on 2012 with 54 per game. Once inside 50 thought the Eagles scored 53.2% of the time. No other team was more damaging.
Kennedy rebounded from injury brilliantly to kick 60 goals and was stiff to not be All Australian. LeCras is an above average general forward who kicked 30 goals in 15 games and will get better once he finds his accuracy again, and Josh Hill is also a lot better than what he gets credit for. All three players are at the peak of their careers aged between 25 and 28. Add the 21 year old jack Darling who is already an above average key forward and the Eagles have one of the better sets of marking forwards in the league.
So the forward-line works, but the problem in 2013 was the Eagles’ inability to get the footy down there often enough. Retention of the footy was a big issue. West Coast ranked 16th for overall retention, going at a rate of 68.7%. By foot the Eagles ranked 13th but it was there inability to retain possession by hand that was the biggest concern.
Despite averaging the fourth-fewest metres gained per handball, their handball retention ranked last in the competition. As a result the Eagles averaged the third-fewest handballs in the league – an ironic statistic given West Coast took the handball game to a new level in the mid-2000s.
We think this is where the injuries hurt. The Eagles went from ranking eighth for metres gained from handballs to 15th. Naitanui busted games open with his contested footy and handball in 2012 and he gained the third-most metres gained from this source at West Coast. Ahead of him were Priddis and Will Scholfield. Both had huge drops in output in this area in 2013. Behind him were the injured Kerr, Waters and Shuey. Next in line was Gaff, who copped the tag with his midfield mates on the sidelines. The run-and-carry disappeared.
This inability to overlap and maintain possession was reflective in there chain conversion profile. 3.5% from the defensive 50 the Eagles landed the ball inside 50 the 12th-most often in the competition. From defensive midfield they ranked 16th. In 2012 the rebound from the back half was significantly better, ranking 4th and 10th respectively from those two zones.
Nic Nat’s absence also hurt their centre clearances wins the Eagles generated an inside 50 just 61.6% of the time – ranked 17th in front of only GWS Giants but 3.5% worse than the 16th ranked team. This is where Simpson can help, considering he joins them from the Hawthorn school of ball movement. The Hawks ranked in the top five in all areas of the ground converting a chain into an inside 50.
Overall it’s a massive challenge for Simpson. He replaces a club legend. Four premiership players have retired. West Coast’s supporters are impatient with no flag since 2006 and the cross town rival Fremantle is a genuine premiership threat. The Pressure is on!
THE BEST IN THE WEST
Despite finishing the 2013 H&A season with seven fewer wins than their cross town rivals, the Eagles have a higher rated list due to having 13 above average players – three more than any other club. Their age and experience ranking is a bit like Collingwood’s where they rank 12th for age but 6th for experience. We think they are in the premiership window despite the 2013 hiccup. Let’s not forget that they entered the 2013 season as one of the flag favourites. While there are plenty of above average players, the big question is how many can jump in class to the elite category. At the moment they have just Dean Cox who is elite and at the age of 32 you can’t expect him to stay at that level.
Expect Nic Naitanui to replace him if his body allows it, while Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey, Josh
Kennedy and Jack Darling are the four players who we think can rise into the top 10% of their respective positions.
So with such a highly rated list, why did the Eagles struggle so much last season? Unfortunately the answer is the time-old excuse of injuries. Of the 13 players rated in the top 11%-35% of the position, only 5 managed at least 20 games last season. The group played 214 of the possible 286 H&A games between them – or 75%of total games.
Upside
Outside of the players ranked in the top 25% of their respective positions, we’re not convinced there is a lot coming through. Andrew Gaff should get back to the levels produced in 2012 and Elliot Yeo is a great pickup considering they need a running defender desperately.
We have an up arrow for Sharrod Wellingham, Mark Hutchings, Blayne Wilson and Adam Carter but only just.
The drafts between 2009-2012 haven’t produced a lot of hits outside of Darling and Gaff. But in fairness they have had just two picks in the top 20 in that time of which Gaff was one and Brad Sheppard was the other who has to step up this year.
2013 NAB AFL DRAFT
West Coast traded down to pick 11 in order to give up nothing for Elliot Yeo and it worked. Where assuming they got their man Dom Sheed. Smart trading! Sheed is a star and is a local boy, eliminating the go-home factor. He adds much needed class and depth to the midfield which lost Daniel Kerr in the off season. He wins the ball in close and on the outside, and excels around stoppages. Were fascinated to see how he performs at AFL level given we rated him a pick four prospect. Three of their four selections were West Australian’s, safe strategy to adopt.
FINAL WORD
The Eagles have 14 players in that 25-30 age bracket – ranked equal-second in the competition. If they have better luck with injuries with these players, finals or even a top four finish is a realistic possibility in 2014.
Elite – Top 10% of Position Type
Above Average – Top 11%-35% of Position Type
Average – Top 36% - 65% of Position Type
Below Average – Top 66% - 90% of Position Type
Poor – Bottom 10% of Position Type
Elite
Dean Cox
Above Average
Scott Selwood, Nic Naitanui, Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey, Chris Masten, Beau Waters, Shannon Hurn, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras, Jack Darling, Sam Butler, Darren Glass, Eric McKenzie
Average
Matt Rosa, Sharrod Wellingham, Andrew Gaff, Josh Hill, Will Schofield
Below Average
Elliot Yeo, Ashley Smith, Patrick McGinnity, Jamie Cripps, Mitchell Brown
Poors
Brad Sheppard, Jacob Brennan
???? (Not enough games to assess)
Adam Carter, Blayne Wilson, Scott Lycett, Adam Carter, Xavier Ellis, Jamie Bennell, Simon Turnbridge, Fraser McInnes, Brant Colledge, Dom Sheed, Malcolm Karpany, Tom Barrass, Dylan Main, Jeremy McGovern
Rookie List
Callum Sinclair, Murray Newman, Rowen Powell, Will Maginness
WEST COAST EAGLES
Average Age 23years 339 Days - 12th in the AFL
Average Games - 70.1 - 6th in the AFL
Height - 188.7cm - 5th in the AFL
Draw Difficulty - 14th
WINGS CLIPPED:
Into his second rebuild of the West Coast list, John Worsfold appeared destined to take out another premiership at his beloved club. After 2007 and the Chris Judd/Ben Cousins departures, the Eagles spent a few years in the wilderness, picking up early draft picks and developing another title contender,
It all appeared on track after a big spike in 2011. The Eagles played off in a preliminary final after finishing 16th the year before, then backed up the next year with a fifth-place finish. In February 2013 the Eagles were equal second flag favourites with reigning premier Sydney.
West Coast was cherry ripe to make genuine assault on the flag with the experience of Dean Cox, Daniel Kerr, Matt Priddis and Darren Glass still playing outstanding football. There was a big group of young Eagles between the ages of 24-28 in Beau Waters, Shannon Hurn, Mark LeCras, Matt Rosa, Sam Butler, Josh Kennedy, Chris Masten and Eric Mackenzie. Finally the young in Nic Natanui, Luke Shuey, Scott Selwood, Jack Darling and Andrew Gaff were all under 23 when the first ball was bounced in 2013. It was the perfect mix of the old, players at their peak and yhe gun kids, but things went terribly wrong. Injuries were the main culprit but there was also a big drop in form from a lot of key players.
In 2012 the Eagles squeezed 227 games out of their their top 11 ranked players during the H&A season, missing just 15 as a group. Last season the same players only managed just 167 for a total of 75 missed, with only Cox, Priddis and Gaff playing 20 or more games each.
The alarm bells were ringing earlu when Naitanui was sidelined for most of the pre-season. He came back strongly in Round 6 against the Bulldogs, but limped to 11 games and was put on ice after round 17. Shuey missed eight games, Waters played only seven after and ll-Australian year in 2012 and Hurn wasn't seen after Round 13. Rosa and Kerr player Chris Masten. Given Masten was only 10th of this top-11 from 2012 it's no surprise the Eagles plummeted. On average these players had a Champion Data ranking of 99 points per game in 2012 but in 2013 that average dropped to 92. There were some significant declines as well with Naitanui, Shuey, Waters, Gaff and Rosa all falling by more than 10 points per game. So many injuries to so many quality players would knock any side around - the Eagles had a legitimate excuse.
NEW EAGLE HAS LANDED:
So out goes "Woosha" and in comes ex-Hawks assistant Adam Simpson. While a 13th placing may seem all doom and gloom, Simpson has some positives to work with.
From 2013 evidence, the forward line works. While West Coast averaged 10 fewer points per game than the season before, the supply dried up big time. The Eagles averaged just 48 inside 50’s per match – ranked 14th after ranking seventh on 2012 with 54 per game. Once inside 50 thought the Eagles scored 53.2% of the time. No other team was more damaging.
Kennedy rebounded from injury brilliantly to kick 60 goals and was stiff to not be All Australian. LeCras is an above average general forward who kicked 30 goals in 15 games and will get better once he finds his accuracy again, and Josh Hill is also a lot better than what he gets credit for. All three players are at the peak of their careers aged between 25 and 28. Add the 21 year old jack Darling who is already an above average key forward and the Eagles have one of the better sets of marking forwards in the league.
So the forward-line works, but the problem in 2013 was the Eagles’ inability to get the footy down there often enough. Retention of the footy was a big issue. West Coast ranked 16th for overall retention, going at a rate of 68.7%. By foot the Eagles ranked 13th but it was there inability to retain possession by hand that was the biggest concern.
Despite averaging the fourth-fewest metres gained per handball, their handball retention ranked last in the competition. As a result the Eagles averaged the third-fewest handballs in the league – an ironic statistic given West Coast took the handball game to a new level in the mid-2000s.
We think this is where the injuries hurt. The Eagles went from ranking eighth for metres gained from handballs to 15th. Naitanui busted games open with his contested footy and handball in 2012 and he gained the third-most metres gained from this source at West Coast. Ahead of him were Priddis and Will Scholfield. Both had huge drops in output in this area in 2013. Behind him were the injured Kerr, Waters and Shuey. Next in line was Gaff, who copped the tag with his midfield mates on the sidelines. The run-and-carry disappeared.
This inability to overlap and maintain possession was reflective in there chain conversion profile. 3.5% from the defensive 50 the Eagles landed the ball inside 50 the 12th-most often in the competition. From defensive midfield they ranked 16th. In 2012 the rebound from the back half was significantly better, ranking 4th and 10th respectively from those two zones.
Nic Nat’s absence also hurt their centre clearances wins the Eagles generated an inside 50 just 61.6% of the time – ranked 17th in front of only GWS Giants but 3.5% worse than the 16th ranked team. This is where Simpson can help, considering he joins them from the Hawthorn school of ball movement. The Hawks ranked in the top five in all areas of the ground converting a chain into an inside 50.
Overall it’s a massive challenge for Simpson. He replaces a club legend. Four premiership players have retired. West Coast’s supporters are impatient with no flag since 2006 and the cross town rival Fremantle is a genuine premiership threat. The Pressure is on!
THE BEST IN THE WEST
Despite finishing the 2013 H&A season with seven fewer wins than their cross town rivals, the Eagles have a higher rated list due to having 13 above average players – three more than any other club. Their age and experience ranking is a bit like Collingwood’s where they rank 12th for age but 6th for experience. We think they are in the premiership window despite the 2013 hiccup. Let’s not forget that they entered the 2013 season as one of the flag favourites. While there are plenty of above average players, the big question is how many can jump in class to the elite category. At the moment they have just Dean Cox who is elite and at the age of 32 you can’t expect him to stay at that level.
Expect Nic Naitanui to replace him if his body allows it, while Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey, Josh
Kennedy and Jack Darling are the four players who we think can rise into the top 10% of their respective positions.
So with such a highly rated list, why did the Eagles struggle so much last season? Unfortunately the answer is the time-old excuse of injuries. Of the 13 players rated in the top 11%-35% of the position, only 5 managed at least 20 games last season. The group played 214 of the possible 286 H&A games between them – or 75%of total games.
Upside
Outside of the players ranked in the top 25% of their respective positions, we’re not convinced there is a lot coming through. Andrew Gaff should get back to the levels produced in 2012 and Elliot Yeo is a great pickup considering they need a running defender desperately.
We have an up arrow for Sharrod Wellingham, Mark Hutchings, Blayne Wilson and Adam Carter but only just.
The drafts between 2009-2012 haven’t produced a lot of hits outside of Darling and Gaff. But in fairness they have had just two picks in the top 20 in that time of which Gaff was one and Brad Sheppard was the other who has to step up this year.
2013 NAB AFL DRAFT
West Coast traded down to pick 11 in order to give up nothing for Elliot Yeo and it worked. Where assuming they got their man Dom Sheed. Smart trading! Sheed is a star and is a local boy, eliminating the go-home factor. He adds much needed class and depth to the midfield which lost Daniel Kerr in the off season. He wins the ball in close and on the outside, and excels around stoppages. Were fascinated to see how he performs at AFL level given we rated him a pick four prospect. Three of their four selections were West Australian’s, safe strategy to adopt.
FINAL WORD
The Eagles have 14 players in that 25-30 age bracket – ranked equal-second in the competition. If they have better luck with injuries with these players, finals or even a top four finish is a realistic possibility in 2014.
Elite – Top 10% of Position Type
Above Average – Top 11%-35% of Position Type
Average – Top 36% - 65% of Position Type
Below Average – Top 66% - 90% of Position Type
Poor – Bottom 10% of Position Type
Elite
Dean Cox
Above Average
Scott Selwood, Nic Naitanui, Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey, Chris Masten, Beau Waters, Shannon Hurn, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras, Jack Darling, Sam Butler, Darren Glass, Eric McKenzie
Average
Matt Rosa, Sharrod Wellingham, Andrew Gaff, Josh Hill, Will Schofield
Below Average
Elliot Yeo, Ashley Smith, Patrick McGinnity, Jamie Cripps, Mitchell Brown
Poors
Brad Sheppard, Jacob Brennan
???? (Not enough games to assess)
Adam Carter, Blayne Wilson, Scott Lycett, Adam Carter, Xavier Ellis, Jamie Bennell, Simon Turnbridge, Fraser McInnes, Brant Colledge, Dom Sheed, Malcolm Karpany, Tom Barrass, Dylan Main, Jeremy McGovern
Rookie List
Callum Sinclair, Murray Newman, Rowen Powell, Will Maginness
