AFL Round 18 "Value Bets"

[tarky]

So far i'm only really liking freo at $14......yeah, maybe not.

north @ $3.80 looks ok, as does sydney+38.5 and melbourne+21.5

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Adelaide @ 4.10 and Sydney @ 6.70 look over the odds for me

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Bombers @ $1.80 in the HUN yesterday.

 

[PHX]

Bombers @ $1.80 in the HUN yesterday.

Pity the HUN doesn't do betting.

Essendon are 1.35.

 

[NJ1983]

Adelaide @ 4.10

Agree

 

[Dr Awkward]

No value is jumping out at me here, maybe NM and WC.

 

[Pklz]

North Melbourne +25.5
Sydney +38.5
Melbourne +21.5

 

[jimbob7085]

No value is jumping out at me here, maybe NM and WC.

I agree with NM, but I see Essendon as value. Also Hawks and Richmond.

Multi-
NM+15.5, Hawk Over 15.5, Ess Over 15.5= 3.12(with Kangas left out...betting for that market is suspended.)

All of NM, Hawk, Ess and Rich to WIN=8.5

same as above minus kangas=2.45

Hoping for lines to come out soon for TAB.

 

[Kahuna]

I'm liking Sydney line this weekend.

 

[JuddyBuddy]

Sydney/St Kilda under whatever the total score market is could be value too. Both highly defensive.

 

[nobbyiscool]

i actually think there's a bit of value around this week.

with simpsons retirement, and with carlton inconsistent, i reckon $3.40 is great odds for north.

i love dogs at under 39.5 paying $3.55. i know freo suck, but they've gotta have some pride - and thats great value.

i'll be on brissie at +17.5 as well... they tend to go ok against brissie, and i reckon brissie are ok.

 

[Oaksnaf]

i'll be on brissie at +17.5 as well... they tend to go ok against brissie, and i reckon brissie are ok.

Had to have a little chuckle.

Although. Small things amuse small minds!

 

[spookism]

Got a couple of multis on this weekend

The below teams all on the above 15.5 tri-bet @ $3.42
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
St. Kilda
Richmond


And

Carlton H2H
St. Kilda H2H
Geelong Under 39.5
Essendon under 39.5
Western Bulldogs over 39.5

@ $9.45

 

[Mugpunter]

Ok, here's mine for the week.

Selection: : SYDNEY (+32.0) @ 2.11 Unknown
Event: AFL, SYDNEY vs ST KILDA
Market: Points, 01 August 2009 02:10
Selection: : ADELAIDE (+23.0) @ 2.11 Unknown
Event: AFL, GEELONG vs ADELAIDE
Market: Points, 31 July 2009 21:10
Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE (+21.5) @ 2.00 Unknown
Event: AFL, NORTH MELBOURNE vs CARLTON
Market: PYOL, 31 July 2009 02:40
Selection: : FREMANTLE (+48.5) @ 2.07 Unknown
Event: AFL, WESTERN BULLDOGS vs FREMANTLE
Market: PYOL, 31 July 2009 21:10
Selection: : BRISBANE (+16.5) @ 2.00 Unknown
Event: AFL, COLLINGWOOD vs BRISBANE
Market: PYOL, 01 August 2009 02:10
Selection: : MELBOURNE (+18.5) @ 2.08 Unknown
Event: AFL, MELBOURNE vs RICHMOND
Market: PYOL, 01 August 2009 20:10
Selection: : HAWTHORN (-18.5) @ 2.07 Unknown
Event: AFL, PORT ADELAIDE vs HAWTHORN
Market: PYOL, 01 August 2009 22:10
Selection: : WEST COAST (-5.5) @ 3.25 Unknown
Event: AFL, WEST COAST vs ESSENDON
Market: PYOL, 01 August 2009 23:40
Combined Dividend: 515.837

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Took North Melbourne +19.5 @ $2.09.

North have won their last six matches, including five @ Telstra Dome. I think they're also a club for whom milestone games mean something. Carlton's form is terrible and they've made five changes which destabilises the side IMHO.

Also took WCE vs. Essendon under 189.5 total at $1.90.

The weather may be fine, but I don't think either team has scored well of late and Essendon will miss Lloyd this week. Lynch will have to play ruck for the Eagles because Seaby's been dropped. A generally impotent contest by my assessment.

 

[2121]

MY multis for this week
20 dollar multi
Carlton HT/FT 1.55
Geelong under 39.5 2.20
Rich und 39.5 2.25
Port 2.95
west coast under 39.5 3.50
Combined odds 79.21
Return 1584
20 multi
Adelaide 25.5+ 1.90
Fremantle 54.5+ 1.90
Pies und 39.5 2.25
essendon und 39 2.10
Port 13.+ 2.00
Combined odds 34.11
Return 682.29
10 multi
Geelong 1-19 4.25
Western Bulldogs 20-39 6.50
Syd ttl score 61-75 3.25
Richmond und 39.5 2.25
Combined 202
Return 2020

 

[chris_]

Crows +26.5
Melbourne +21.5
Sydney +35.5

Singles.

WCE vs ESS has been taken off the market just now on 365. I'll get on WCE if the line is greater than +12.5.

 

[tarky]

north, highest score of the round @ 41-1

 

[KardiniaPark]

Bit trickier than it looks this week i think, not many games i like at all so im basing most bets around these below. Find the carlton, geelong, freo, essendon games to be about spot on with the line and i wouldnt have a clue which way to go.

I really think the best bet of the week is sydney to score 0-60. Perfect anchor for all multi bets this weekend IMO.

Stkilda 60+ $3.50 (now into $3)
StKilda +35.5 $1.90
Sydney 0-60 $2.20
Tigers, Hawks, @ line. $1.90

 

[tarky]

Bit trickier than it looks this week i think, not many games i like at all so im basing most bets around these below. Find the carlton, geelong, freo, essendon games to be about spot on with the line and i wouldnt have a clue which way to go.

I really think the best bet of the week is sydney to score 0-60. Perfect anchor for all multi bets this weekend IMO.

Stkilda 60+ $3.50 (now into $3)
StKilda +35.5 $1.90
Sydney 0-60 $2.20
Tigers, Hawks, @ line. $1.90

all i want to know is where you got st kilda +35.5 @ $1.90 from? hope you loaded up on that!

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Sydney + 35
Geelong - 25 (People who are taking Adel+25 should look at recent record)
WCE @ 2.90
PA @ 2.65
Freo + 54 - Dont love it but its alot of points to give...

Kangas tonight maybe aswell at the line...

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Took North Melbourne +19.5 @ $2.09.

North have won their last six matches, including five @ Telstra Dome. I think they're also a club for whom milestone games mean something. Carlton's form is terrible and they've made five changes which destabilises the side IMHO.

Also took WCE vs. Essendon under 189.5 total at $1.90.

The weather may be fine, but I don't think either team has scored well of late and Essendon will miss Lloyd this week. Lynch will have to play ruck for the Eagles because Seaby's been dropped. A generally impotent contest by my assessment.

Not since 2005 has a Ess/Wce game gone lower than 189...

Probably irrelevant as WCE are now terrible but still, something to ponder.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

That Under 189.5 points for Ess V West Coast looks good to me. West Coast will play to lose, but will be expected to keep the game close (marginal defeat)


Essendon are a quick side but heavier ground in Subiaco will see a lower scoring game for sure.

 

[Lockyer24]

If you're happy to bet against Swannie, Black is $6 for most disposals against the Pies and plays well against us

 

[Pklz]

1 unit on St Kilda 1-39 @ 2.40

2 units on Geelong 1-39 @ 2.22

1 unit Brisbane +19.5 @ 1.91

1 Unit on Sydney/St Kilda total match points over 165.5 @ $1.90