Algorithm revisited, after finals, week 3

[Hobbes]

Melbourne +6 v Sydney
Western Bulldogs +4 v West Coast
Carlton v Adelaide +13
Gold Coast +1 v North Melbourne (practically predicting a tie)
GWS +16 v Geelong
Port Adelaide +11 v Richmond
Essendon +44 v Brisbane
Hawthorn v Collingwood +6
Fremantle +2 v St Kilda

2.5/9. This doesn't look great, but there were five surprise wins by away teams.

1. Sydney 19.6 (+1)
2. Adelaide 11.1 (+4)
3. GWS 10.8
4. Richmond 10.1 (+3)
5. Port Adelaide 8.62 (-1)
6. Melbourne 8.57 (-5)
7. Essendon 4.5 (-2)
8. Geelong 3.1
9. Hawthorn 0.5 (+2)
10. West Coast -1.5
11. St Kilda -3.4 (+1)
12. Collingwood -3.9 (-3)
13. Carlton -7.3 (+2)
14. North Melbourne -9.0 (-1)
15. Gold Coast -9.3 (+1)
16. Western Bulldogs -9.6 (-2)
17. Fremantle -14.9
18. Brisbane -19.2

Adelaide surprise beneficiaries after their lukewarm win over Carlton, as GWS, Port, Melbourne and Essendon all perform below expectations. Melbourne's drop looks harsh, but it's all very bunched. The Bulldogs are watching their season go down the toilet, and will need a sharp reversal of form to get anywhere.

Adelaide +27 v Bulldogs
Hawthorn v GWS +5
Collingwood v Essendon +8
Sydney +38 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Geelong +16
St Kilda v Richmond +14
North Melbourne +15 v Fremantle
Carlton v Melbourne +16
West Coast +3 v Port Adelaide

1. GWS 15.3
2. Adelaide 14.5 (+1)
3. Richmond 14.1 (+3)
4. Geelong 13.5 (+1)
5. Melbourne 12.94 (-3)
6. Port Adelaide 12.89 (-2)
7. Sydney 12.8 (+1)
8. West Coast 12.2 (+1)
9. St Kilda 11.7 (+2)
10. Essendon 10.9 (-3)
11. Western Bulldogs 10.3 (-1)
12. Hawthorn 10.0 (+2)
13. Gold Coast 9.1 (+3)
14. Fremantle 8.9 (-1)
15. Collingwood 8.6 (-3)
16. Carlton 8.2 (-1)
17. North Melbourne 7.4
18. Brisbane 5.6

If there's any truth to these predictions, we're looking at the best-performed bottom four in decades, and the worst-performed top four.

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide +27 v Bulldogs
Hawthorn v GWS +5
Collingwood v Essendon +8
Sydney +38 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Geelong +16
St Kilda v Richmond +14
North Melbourne +15 v Fremantle
Carlton v Melbourne +16
West Coast +3 v Port Adelaide

5.5/9

1. Sydney 21.7
2. Adelaide 14.3
3. Port Adelaide 11.2 (+2)
4. Geelong 9.9 (+4)
5. GWS 9.5 (-2)
6. Essendon 7.8 (+1)
7. St Kilda 7.1 (+4)
8. Melbourne 5.8 (-2)
9. Hawthorn 2.1
10. Richmond 0.3 (-6)
11. Carlton -7.3 (+2)
12. West Coast -8.2 (-2)
13. Collingwood -8.3 (-1)
14. Fremantle -10.9 (+3)
15. Gold Coast -12.5
16. North Melbourne -13.8 (-2)
17. Western Bulldogs -19.3 (-1)
18. Brisbane -24.7

Sydney continues as the form team of the competition. Adelaide are starting to regain their mojo, and Geelong and Port are looking a bit more like real contenders.

St Kilda v Essendon +1
Geelong +8 v Hawthorn
Port Adelaide +31 v North Melbourne
Gold Coast +2 v Collingwood
GWS v Sydney +12
Melbourne v Adelaide +2
Richmond +31 v Brisbane
Carlton +12 v Western Bulldogs
Fremantle v West Coast +3

1. GWS 15.3
2. Adelaide 14.9
3. Geelong 14.4 (+1)
4. Port Adelaide 13.7 (+2)
5. Melbourne 13.1
6. Sydney 12.8 (+1)
7. St Kilda 12.73 (+2)
8. Richmond 12.68 (-5)
9. Essendon 11.6 (+1)
10. West Coast 11.2 (-2)
11. Hawthorn 10.3 (+1)
12. Fremantle 9.5 (+2)
13. Western Bulldogs 9.4 (-2)
14. Gold Coast 9.0 (-1)
15. Carlton 7.90 (+1)
16. Collingwood 7.89 (-1)
17. North Melbourne 6.4
18. Brisbane 5.3

 

[Hobbes]

St Kilda v Essendon +1
Geelong +8 v Hawthorn
Port Adelaide +31 v North Melbourne
Gold Coast +2 v Collingwood
GWS v Sydney +12
Melbourne v Adelaide +2
Richmond +31 v Brisbane
Carlton +12 v Western Bulldogs
Fremantle v West Coast +3

7/9 Fair performance from the algorithm this week, including some good calls on margins - Richmond gave me my third exact margin for the year.

1. Sydney 22.6
2. Adelaide 18.6
3. Essendon 17.7 (+3)
4. Port Adelaide 16.9
5. Geelong 10.8 (-1)
6. GWS 10.4 (-1)
7. Hawthorn 4.8 (+2)
8. Richmond -0.6 (+2)
9. Melbourne -0.7 (-1)
10. St Kilda -1.2 (-3)
11. West Coast -4.1 (+1)
12. Collingwood -5.0 (+1)
13. Carlton -13.4 (-2)
14. Fremantle -15.8
15. Western Bulldogs -16.6 (+2)
16. Gold Coast -16.9 (-1)
17. North Melbourne -20.8 (-1)
18. Brisbane -22.2

Placings not changing much, but the ratings at the top and bottom of the ladder are clearing out.

Adelaide +14 v Geelong
Essendon +38 v North Melbourne
Melbourne v Port Adelaide +12
Western Bulldogs +6 v Gold Coast
Sydney +29 v St Kilda
Fremantle v Hawthorn +12
Richmond v GWS +6
Collingwood +8 v West Coast
Brisbane v Carlton +3

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 15.4 (+1)
2. GWS 15.0 (-1)
3. Geelong 14.9
4. Port Adelaide 14.3
5. Sydney 13.3 (+1)
6. Richmond 12.9 (+2)
7. Essendon 12.8 (+1)
8. Melbourne 12.3 (-3)
9. St Kilda 11.8 (-2)
10. West Coast 11.6
11. Hawthorn 10.2
12. Western Bulldogs 10.0 (+1)
13. Fremantle 9.04 (-1)
14. Gold Coast 9.02
15. Collingwood 7.6 (+1)
16. Carlton 6.7 (-1)
17 North Melbourne 5.8
18. Brisbane 5.4

Some teams' predictions look strange (like winning, but the predicted number of wins goes down) when compared to last time - it's probably a consequence of a re-evaluation of the draw to come.

 

[Power Raid]

better than my footy tipping

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide +14 v Geelong
Essendon +38 v North Melbourne
Melbourne v Port Adelaide +12
Western Bulldogs +6 v Gold Coast
Sydney +29 v St Kilda
Fremantle v Hawthorn +12
Richmond v GWS +6
Collingwood +8 v West Coast
Brisbane v Carlton +3

6/9 in what was, apparently the hardest round ever to tip. https://squiggle.com.au/2017/07/21/hardest-round-ever/ Still not as cool as my fourth exact margin for the year, thanks to Collingwood.

1. Sydney 25.8
2. Adelaide 21.8
3. Essendon 19.6
4. Port Adelaide 12.6
5. Geelong 11.2
6. Hawthorn 10.8 (+1)
7. GWS 8.3 (-1)
8. Melbourne 4.0 (+1)
9. Richmond 2.9 (-1)
10. St Kilda -3.3
11. West Coast -5.1
12. Collingwood -5.6
13. Western Bulldogs -11.1 (+2)
=14 Brisbane -17.25 (+4)
=14 Carlton -17.25 (-1)
16. North Melbourne -21.0 (+1)
17. Fremantle -21.4 (-3)
18. Gold Coast -23.7 (-2)

No movement at the top, except for the leaders clearing out further. At the bottom, a big upward move from Brisbane reflects their improvement since the bye.

Hawthorn v Sydney +10
North Melbourne v Melbourne +25
GWS +42 v Fremantle
Port Adelaide +22 v St Kilda
Gold Coast v Richmond +20
Carlton v Geelong +28
Western Bulldogs v Essendon +31
Collingwood v Adelaide +21
West Coast +25 v Brisbane

In contrast to last week's killer round for tipsters, this week looks like a very easy round, with tipped margins of 20+ in every match except Hawthorn v Sydney. (Famous last words)

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 16.0
2. Geelong 14.5 (+1)
2. GWS 14.3 (-1)
4. Richmond 13.8 (+2)
5. Sydney 13.6
6. Port Adelaide 13.5
7. Melbourne 13.10 (+1)
8. Essendon 13.09 (-1)
9. West Coast 11.5 (+1)
10. St Kilda 11.4 (-1)
11. Hawthorn 10.8
12. Western Bulldogs 10.7
13. Gold Coast 8.2 (+1)
14. Fremantle 8.1 (-1)
15. Collingwood 7.9
16. Brisbane 6.1 (+2)
17. Carlton 5.9 (-1)
18. North Melbourne 5.5 (-1)

Brisbane tipped to rise off the bottom! Well, maybe. Their percentage is dire so they probably need to get a win ahead of Carlton and/or North.

At the other end, the algorithm thinks that the top eight is set, although every position other than first is very much up for discussion. GWS and Geelong aren't really impressing at the moment, so there may be an opportunity for Richmond, Sydney or Essendon to step up.

 

[Hobbes]

Hawthorn v Sydney +10
North Melbourne v Melbourne +25
GWS +42 v Fremantle
Port Adelaide +22 v St Kilda
Gold Coast v Richmond +20
Carlton v Geelong +28
Western Bulldogs v Essendon +31
Collingwood v Adelaide +21
West Coast +25 v Brisbane

5.5/9.

1. Sydney 22.8
2. Adelaide 20.7
3. Geelong 16.6 (+2)
4. Hawthorn 15.7 (+2)
5. Essendon 11.6 (-2)
6. Port Adelaide 10.4 (-2)
7. GWS 4.6
8. Richmond 3.3 (+1)
9. West Coast 0.7 (+2)
10. Melbourne -1.9 (-2)
11. Western Bulldogs -2.0 (+2)
12. St Kilda -2.4 (-2)
13. Collingwood -2.7 (-1)
14 Fremantle -15.7 (+3)
15. North Melbourne -17.8 (+1)
16. Brisbane -22.3 (-2)
17. Carlton -22.4 (-3)
18. Gold Coast -24.8

A bit sad for St Kilda and Collingwood, who go down despite lifting their ratings with strong showings.

Geelong v Sydney +1
GWS +11 v Melbourne
Essendon +34 v Carlton
Brisbane v Bulldogs +14
North Melbourne v Collingwood +15
Fremantle +21 v Gold Coast
St Kilda +6 v West Coast
Richmond v Hawthorn +12
Adelaide +10 v Port Adelaide

And the predictive ladder.

1. Adelaide 15.8
2. Geelong 15.0
3. GWS 14.1
4. Richmond 13.9
5. Port Adelaide 13.6 (+1)
6. Sydney 12.9 (-1)
7. Melbourne 12.2
8. West Coast 12.03 (+1)
9. Essendon 11.98 (-1)
10. Western Bulldogs 11.9 (+2)
11. Hawthorn 11.5
12. St Kilda 11.2 (-2)
13=. Collingwood 8.26 (+2)
13=. Fremantle 8.26 (+1)
15. Gold Coast 8.0 (-2)
16. North Melbourne 6.3 (+2)
17. Brisbane 5.6 (-1)
18. Carlton 5.5 (-1)

Of course, the predictive ladder is fantastic for figuring out roughly where in the ladder your team is headed for, but less useful for exact placings at the end of the year when it matters. With this in mind, I have a predictive top 12 using similar techniques to the Squiggle ladder - round off the wins and apply percentage.

1. Adelaide 15 1 6 62 129.3
2. Geelong 14 1 7 58 115.1
3. Port Adelaide 14 0 8 123.6
4. GWS 13 2 7 56 111.0
5. Richmond 14 0 8 56 108.4
6. Sydney 13 0 9 52 111.1
7. Melbourne 12 0 10 48 105.9
8. Essendon 12 0 10 105.6
9. West Coast 12 0 10 48 104.7
10. Bulldogs 12 0 10 48 100.2
11. Hawthorn 11 1 10 46 91.2
12. St Kilda 11 0 11 97.3

 

[davos44]

Hawthorn v Sydney +10
North Melbourne v Melbourne +25
GWS +42 v Fremantle
Port Adelaide +22 v St Kilda
Gold Coast v Richmond +20
Carlton v Geelong +28
Western Bulldogs v Essendon +31
Collingwood v Adelaide +21
West Coast +25 v Brisbane

5.5/9.

1. Sydney 22.8
2. Adelaide 20.7
3. Geelong 16.6 (+2)
4. Hawthorn 15.7 (+2)
5. Essendon 11.6 (-2)
6. Port Adelaide 10.4 (-2)
7. GWS 4.6
8. Richmond 3.3 (+1)
9. West Coast 0.7 (+2)
10. Melbourne -1.9 (-2)
11. Western Bulldogs -2.0 (+2)
12. St Kilda -2.4 (-2)
13. Collingwood -2.7 (-1)
14 Fremantle -15.7 (+3)
15. North Melbourne -17.8 (+1)
16. Brisbane -22.3 (-2)
17. Carlton -22.4 (-3)
18. Gold Coast -24.8

A bit sad for St Kilda and Collingwood, who go down despite lifting their ratings with strong showings.

Geelong v Sydney +1
GWS +11 v Melbourne
Essendon +34 v Carlton
Brisbane v Bulldogs +14
North Melbourne v Collingwood +15
Fremantle +21 v Gold Coast
St Kilda +6 v West Coast
Richmond v Hawthorn +12
Adelaide +10 v Port Adelaide

And the predictive ladder.

1. Adelaide 15.8
2. Geelong 15.0
3. GWS 14.1
4. Richmond 13.9
5. Port Adelaide 13.6 (+1)
6. Sydney 12.9 (-1)
7. Melbourne 12.2
8. West Coast 12.03 (+1)
9. Essendon 11.98 (-1)
10. Western Bulldogs 11.9 (+2)
11. Hawthorn 11.5
12. St Kilda 11.2 (-2)
13=. Collingwood 8.26 (+2)
13=. Fremantle 8.26 (+1)
15. Gold Coast 8.0 (-2)
16. North Melbourne 6.3 (+2)
17. Brisbane 5.6 (-1)
18. Carlton 5.5 (-1)

Of course, the predictive ladder is fantastic for figuring out roughly where in the ladder your team is headed for, but less useful for exact placings at the end of the year when it matters. With this in mind, I have a predictive top 12 using similar techniques to the Squiggle ladder - round off the wins and apply percentage.

1. Adelaide 15 1 6 62 129.3
2. Geelong 14 1 7 58 115.1
3. Port Adelaide 14 0 8 123.6
4. GWS 13 2 7 56 111.0
5. Richmond 14 0 8 56 108.4
6. Sydney 13 0 9 52 111.1
7. Melbourne 12 0 10 48 105.9
8. Essendon 12 0 10 105.6
9. West Coast 12 0 10 48 104.7
10. Bulldogs 12 0 10 48 100.2
11. Hawthorn 11 1 10 46 91.2
12. St Kilda 11 0 11 97.3

Fascinating battle for 4-10 with percentage being a massive factor.

 

[Hobbes]

Fascinating battle for 4-10 with percentage being a massive factor.

Yes. Even Hawthorn is in the mix, with their dire percentage offset by the draw.

 

[Hobbes]

Geelong v Sydney +1
GWS +11 v Melbourne
Essendon +34 v Carlton
Brisbane v Bulldogs +14
North Melbourne v Collingwood +15
Fremantle +21 v Gold Coast
St Kilda +6 v West Coast
Richmond v Hawthorn +12
Adelaide +10 v Port Adelaide

7/9. And my fifth exact margin of the year with the Bulldogs (and almost Fremantle and St Kilda).

=1. Adelaide 29.22
=1. Sydney 29.22
3. Geelong 12.5
4. Hawthorn 12.0
5. Richmond 10.1 (+3)
6. Essendon 9.2 (-1)
7. GWS 8.5
8. Collingwood 2.2 (+5)
9. Port Adelaide 1.1 (-3)
10. West Coast 0.5 (-1)
11. Western Bulldogs -2.0
12. St Kilda -2.1
13. Melbourne -6.6 (-3)
14. Fremantle -16.8
15. Carlton -19.4 (+2)
16. Brisbane -21.9
17. Gold Coast -24.5 (+1)
18. North Melbourne -25.8 (-3)

The Crows have entered premiership territory, but so have Sydney. Both are a long way ahead of the next level teams - Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon and GWS.

Western Bulldogs v GWS +5
Sydney +58 v Fremantle
Geelong +2 v Richmond
Brisbane +3 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Adelaide +14
West Coast +28 v Carlton
Melbourne v St Kilda +5
Hawthorn +38 v North Melbourne
Port Adelaide +5 v Collingwood

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 16.4
2. Richmond 14.8 (+2)
3. GWS 14.7
4. Geelong 14.2 (-2)
5. Sydney 13.4 (+1)
6. Port Adelaide 12.9 (-1)
7. Western Bulldogs 12.3 (+3)
8. Essendon 12.0 (+1)
9. St Kilda 11.7 (+3)
10. Melbourne 11.6 (-3)
11. West Coast 11.4 (-3)
12. Hawthorn 10.8
13. Collingwood 9.9
14. Fremantle 8.5 (-1)
15. Gold Coast 6.8
16. North Melbourne 5.8
=17. Brisbane 5.41
=17. Carlton 5.41 (+1)

Predicted Top 11

Adelaide 16.5 133.7
GWS 15 112.6
Richmond 15 109.7
Geelong 14 112.6
Port Adelaide 13 118.3
Sydney 13 113.5
Essendon 12 106.0
Melbourne 12 104.0
Western Bulldogs 12 100.9
St Kilda 12 97.8
West Coast 11 104.2

 

[The Swans Blog]

Too bad your algorithm doesn't take into account Geelong missing half its midfield. They'll struggle big time the rest of this month.

 

[Hobbes]

Too bad your algorithm doesn't take into account Geelong missing half its midfield. They'll struggle big time the rest of this month.

Quite right. Ins and outs isn't what I do.

 

[Hobbes]

Western Bulldogs v GWS +5
Sydney +58 v Fremantle
Geelong +2 v Richmond
Brisbane +3 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Adelaide +14
West Coast +28 v Carlton
Melbourne v St Kilda +5
Hawthorn +38 v North Melbourne
Port Adelaide +5 v Collingwood

8/9. Might be my best week of the year.

1. Adelaide 34.6
2. Sydney 31.8 (-1)
3. Geelong 16.5
4. GWS 15.2 (+3)
5. Hawthorn 10.8 (-1)
6. Richmond 9.5 (-1)
7. Port Adelaide 3.6 (+2)
8. Essendon 3.5 (-2)
9. Collingwood -1.5 (-1)
10. Melbourne -1.93 (+3)
11. West Coast -1.94 (-1)
12. St Kilda -6.7
13. Western Bulldogs -8.3 (-2)
14. Brisbane -15.3 (+2)
15. Carlton -17.5
16. Fremantle -20.8 (-2)
17. North Melbourne -26.3 (+1)
18. Gold Coast -33.8 (-1)

Adelaide +12 v Sydney (this will be the first game I've actually attended in years)
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide +6
Collingwood v Geelong +18
GWS +29 v West Coast
Gold Coast v Essendon +31
Carlton v Hawthorn +28
Melbourne +19 v Brisbane
St Kilda +20 v North Melbourne
Fremantle v Richmond +21

At this stage of the year, I'm ditching my probablistic ladder for a possible ladder - the most likely number of wins, adjusted by percentage.

Predicted Top 11

1. Adelaide 16.5 143
2. GWS 15 119
3. Geelong 14.5 117 (+1)
4. Port Adelaide 14 128 (+1)
5. Richmond 14 114 (-2)
6. Sydney 13 126
7. Essendon 12 118
8. Melbourne 12 107
9. Western Bulldogs 12 96
10. West Coast 11 100 (+1)
11. St Kilda 11 97 (-1)

 

[The Swans Blog]

Quite right. Ins and outs isn't what I do.

Quite surprising result given the strength of the sides. Then again, Richmond are pretenders and they've managed to beat a lot of teams below them, but almost none around them.

Surprised you've got Port Adelaide sneaking into the top 4.

 

[Power Raid]

Quite surprising result given the strength of the sides. Then again, Richmond are pretenders and they've managed to beat a lot of teams below them, but almost none around them.

Surprised you've got Port Adelaide sneaking into the top 4.

top 4 or top 8. port's fate in september is certainly going to be a short one.

 

[Hobbes]

Quite surprising result given the strength of the sides. Then again, Richmond are pretenders and they've managed to beat a lot of teams below them, but almost none around them.

Surprised you've got Port Adelaide sneaking into the top 4.

Well, it's all very close. I have Port as winning both their remaining matches (something like 1.52 wins from two matches) and they have percentage in their favour. Richmond are favourites in both of their remaining matches, but at 1.37 wins in two matches it's likely they'll drop one. Any variation in this - Port dropping a match, or Richmond winning both - would put Richmond into the eight. Sydney need to win both matches (one a shoo-in, the other a mild underdog) and need Port and Richmond to slip.

 

[fishardansin]

What is your total tips compared to an average human? Especially someone with little to no knowledge of the game.

 

[Hobbes]

What is your total tips compared to an average human? Especially someone with little to no knowledge of the game.

Final Siren has run tests (admittedly on last year's model of the algorithm, which handled byes differently) and accuracy is something like 69%, broadly comparable to the squiggle. This year it's probably lower - it's been a crazy year for all tipsters.

 

[fishardansin]

Final Siren has run tests (admittedly on last year's model of the algorithm, which handled byes differently) and accuracy is something like 69%, broadly comparable to the squiggle. This year it's probably lower - it's been a crazy year for all tipsters.

What would be interesting is if your algorithm also said how much to bet on each game and calculated the winnings.

 

[Hobbes]

What would be interesting is if your algorithm also said how much to bet on each game and calculated the winnings.

I might try that next year. My (arbitrary, but plausible) guide to calculating win% is 50+-margin.

 

[fishardansin]

I might try that next year. My (arbitrary, but plausible) guide to calculating win% is 50+-margin.

Well, seeing the betting odds are only reflective of crowd intelligence it would be interesting to see if your algorithm beats that. So you would have to bet on each game. If you don't beat the odds then it'd mean that your algorithm is pointless and that you're better of using crowd intelligence. Useless is a strong word.

 

[Hobbes]

Well, seeing the betting odds are only reflective of crowd intelligence it would be interesting to see if your algorithm beats that. So you would have to bet on each game. If you don't beat the odds then it'd mean that your algorithm is pointless and that you're better of using crowd intelligence. Useless is a strong word.

I wouldn't have to bet on every game. Not every game offers good enough odds for a bet. Personally, as a very cautious gambler (despite working as a professional punter for five years) I'd allow a margin for error and also consider refraining from betting if there are bad signs the algorithm doesn't account for, like strange venues and injuries.

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide +12 v Sydney (this will be the first game I've actually attended in years)
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide +6
Collingwood v Geelong +18
GWS +29 v West Coast
Gold Coast v Essendon +31
Carlton v Hawthorn +28
Melbourne +19 v Brisbane
St Kilda +20 v North Melbourne
Fremantle v Richmond +21

7/9, which is probably par.

1. Sydney 33.1 (+1)
2. Adelaide 31.4 (-1)
3. Richmond 17.0 (+3)
4. Geelong 15.6 (-1)
5. GWS 12.2 (-1)
6. Hawthorn 4.6 (-1)
7. Port Adelaide 4.0
8. Essendon 1.8
9. Collingwood -2.5
10. Melbourne -3.1
11. St Kilda -3.7 (+1)
12. West Coast -8.0 (-1)
13. Western Bulldogs -10.7
14. Carlton -13.4 (+1)
15. Brisbane -14.4 (-1)
16. Fremantle -30.3
17. North Melbourne -32.6
18. Gold Coast -34.0

Not much change, as the round followed the form guide. Notable is that Richmond gained three places with their mauling of Fremantle, Sydney pinched first place from Adelaide, and Fremantle lost about 10 points but no placings.

Hawthorn +15 v Western Bulldogs
Collingwood +1 v Melbourne
Brisbane +24 v North Melbourne
Sydney +51 v Carlton
Geelong +8 v GWS
Port Adelaide +48 v Gold Coast
Essendon +41 v Fremantle
Richmond +21 v St Kilda
West Coast v Adelaide +26

 

[Carlos Danger]

Adelaide +12 v Sydney (this will be the first game I've actually attended in years)
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide +6
Collingwood v Geelong +18
GWS +29 v West Coast
Gold Coast v Essendon +31
Carlton v Hawthorn +28
Melbourne +19 v Brisbane
St Kilda +20 v North Melbourne
Fremantle v Richmond +21

7/9, which is probably par.

1. Sydney 33.1 (+1)
2. Adelaide 31.4 (-1)
3. Richmond 17.0 (+3)
4. Geelong 15.6 (-1)
5. GWS 12.2 (-1)
6. Hawthorn 4.6 (-1)
7. Port Adelaide 4.0
8. Essendon 1.8
9. Collingwood -2.5
10. Melbourne -3.1
11. St Kilda -3.7 (+1)
12. West Coast -8.0 (-1)
13. Western Bulldogs -10.7
14. Carlton -13.4 (+1)
15. Brisbane -14.4 (-1)
16. Fremantle -30.3
17. North Melbourne -32.6
18. Gold Coast -34.0

Not much change, as the round followed the form guide. Notable is that Richmond gained three places with their mauling of Fremantle, Sydney pinched first place from Adelaide, and Fremantle lost about 10 points but no placings.

Hawthorn +15 v Western Bulldogs
Collingwood +1 v Melbourne
Brisbane +24 v North Melbourne
Sydney +51 v Carlton
Geelong +8 v GWS
Port Adelaide +48 v Gold Coast
Essendon +41 v Fremantle
Richmond +21 v St Kilda
West Coast v Adelaide +26

Recount?

 

[Hobbes]

Hawthorn +15 v Western Bulldogs
Collingwood +1 v Melbourne
Brisbane +24 v North Melbourne
Sydney +51 v Carlton
Geelong +8 v GWS
Port Adelaide +48 v Gold Coast
Essendon +41 v Fremantle
Richmond +21 v St Kilda
West Coast v Adelaide +26

7/9. Maybe difficult to apply algorithms effectively when one team is locked into their final position, while their opponents have everything to play for.

1. Sydney 35.7
2. Adelaide 24.0
3. Richmond 21.7
4. Geelong 21.3
5. Port Adelaide 9.0 (+2)
6. GWS 8.6 (-1)
7. Hawthorn 5.7 (-1)
8. Collingwood 1.8 (+1)
9. West Coast -1.1 (+3)
10. St Kilda -3.9 (+1)
11. Essendon -4.9 (-3)
12. Melbourne -5.7 (-2)
13. Western Bulldogs -11.5
14. Carlton -15.6
15. North Melbourne -22.1 (+2)
16. Brisbane -25.2 (-1)
17. Fremantle -26.7 (-1)
18. Gold Coast -40.5

Sydney clear out as the team in the strongest form coming into the finals - but they have to win four finals (two of them away) and that's a tough ask for any team. Adelaide hold second place, but the margin to Richmond and Geelong has shrunk.

Adelaide +24 v GWS
Geelong v Richmond +1
Port Adelaide +36 v West Coast
Sydney +46 v Essendon

 

[Power Raid]

an algorithm will always struggle with the last week where some teams put the cue in the rack like the crows