List Mgmt. All Trades and Draft Part 2- Draft edition

[Quinz]

It’s like some of you are afraid of going all out for a flag.

We’ve already won one, and we’re pushing heavily for a second with the great group we’ve got. The drop off is inevitable, but we can at least try and make the peak more attainable.

This may now be the best list we’ve had.

I trust the club entirely to avoid a long downswing. The goodwill generated from players knowing you will do as much as you can to get them here, and the support of players by the club is real, it adds real value.

I think we overpaid too, but trading isn’t just isolated to one year. We didn’t get Kelly last year for the picks we wanted, and ended up manoeuvring them to get 24 essentially for free. As an overall package the talent we’ve added to our list in the last three years while making the finals every season has been awesome.

 

[Forward Press]

POTENTIALLY Kelly could help us win the flag.

POTENTIALLY our flag window is shut in 2021 once Kennedy retires and the trade is diminished.

I don't see what your argument is here. Maybe they could have been a bust pick so might as well just throw them in the deal anyway?


I'm stoked to land Kelly, however i'm free to think we've overpaid and it could POTENTIALLY hurt us in the long run.

You on the other hand are happy paying whatever it seems. We'll know in 6 years time i guess.

If Geelong wanted those picks for Kelly (and it meant we could hold onto key players) and we were happy to let go of them, then we pay it. Of course it could hurt us in the long run - in fact, I think it will - but when an A-grade midfielder comes knocking and your side won a flag a year ago you don't avoid him simply because those picks could turn out to be guns in 2023. We are chasing short term success at the risk of compromising long term development for another flag in a decade. Great. That's AFL.

I don't see why this is so difficult to understand.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Just remember: Everyone is a genius in hindsight and no-one can predict the future.

Wasn't hard to predict the Burrows failure, given he wasn't even his team's best player in summer league 9s.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

POTENTIALLY Kelly could help us win the flag.

POTENTIALLY our flag window is shut in 2021 once Kennedy retires and the trade is diminished.

I don't see what your argument is here. Maybe they could have been a bust pick so might as well just throw them in the deal anyway?


I'm stoked to land Kelly, however i'm free to think we've overpaid and it could POTENTIALLY hurt us in the long run.

You on the other hand are happy paying whatever it seems. We'll know in 6 years time i guess.

Potentially they are all stars. Potentially they are all busts.

I think we overpaid, slightly, but I'm not bothered by that because the aim of football is to be good and keep yourself in legitimate Premiership contention, which we are, and which this Kelly deal does.

The one thing I don't get is people who slam our drafting also slamming the trade. Like we can never nail young mids, this regime has proven that, and yet now THIS is the draft where we would have and how dare we send those picks out?

You win flags by being in the upper echelon of the league and having some things break your way. This trade keeps us in the upper echelon of the league for a good while longer.

 

[Maylandsman]

When reiwold was out he played a big part

No doubt bloke was enormous after a slow start and not much of a pre-season. Was a big factor in getting us to the bye in a reasonable position to launch from. Jack and Lunch together is a nightmare for backs akin to Kennedy and Darling combination in ‘18.

 

[LittleGreekGod]

52	Jacob Koschitzke	Hawthorn	Murray Bushrangers	TAC Cup	2018 AFL Draft Selections 52+​
53	Aaron Nietschke	Melbourne	Central District	SANFL	​
54	Nick Hind	St Kilda	Essendon	VFL	Traded from North Melbourne at the draft; received from Fremantle; received from Brisbane Lions; received from Geelong; received from Richmond​
55	Noah Answerth	Brisbane Lions	Oakleigh Chargers	TAC Cup	Traded from Collingwood​
56	Marty Hore		Melbourne	Collingwood	VFL	Traded from North Melbourne; received from Sydney; received from Geelong; received from Brisbane Lions​
57	Lachie Schultz	Fremantle	Williamstown	VFL	Traded from Western Bulldogs at the draft; received from Fremantle​
58	Fraser Turner	Richmond	Clarence	TSL	Traded from Western Bulldogs​
59	Brett Bewley	Fremantle	Williamstown	VFL	Traded from Melbourne; received from St Kilda; received from Adelaide (via Gold Coast and Port Adelaide)​
60	Noah Gown	Essendon	Gippsland Power	TAC Cup	​
61	Connor Idun	Greater Western Sydney	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup	Traded from St Kilda at the draft; received from Port Adelaide​
62	Luke English	Richmond	Perth	WAFL	Traded from Adelaide; received from Gold Coast; received from North Melbourne​
63	Mathew Walker	Hawthorn	Murray Bushrangers	TAC Cup	Traded from Collingwood at the draft; Academy eligible for Greater Western Sydney, but they elected not to match.​
64	Lachlan Sholl	Adelaide	Calder Cannons	TAC Cup	Traded from Carlton at the draft; received from Geelong​
65	Darcy Fort	Geelong	Central District	SANFL	Traded from Sydney​
66	Finbar O'Dwyer	Carlton	Murray Bushrangers	TAC Cup	Traded from Greater Western Sydney​
67	Robbie Young	St Kilda	North Adelaide	SANFL	Traded from Carlton at the draft; received from Adelaide; received from Melbourne​
68	Jake Tarca	Geelong	South Adelaide	SANFL	Traded from Richmond at the draft​
69	Joel Crocker	North Melbourne	Sandringham Dragons	TAC Cup	Father–son eligible (son of Darren Crocker)​
5	70	Ben Silvagni	Carlton	Oakleigh Chargers	TAC Cup	Father–son eligible (son of Stephen Silvagni)​
	Caleb Graham	Gold Coast	Palm Beach Currumbin	QAFL	Traded from Brisbane Lions​
72	Brayden Ham	Essendon	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup	​
73	Riley Grundy	Port Adelaide	Sturt	SANFL	​
74	Oscar Brownless	Geelong	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup	Father–son eligible (son of Billy Brownless)​
75	Toby Bedford	Melbourne	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup	Next Generation Academy eligible (Indigenous)​
76	Boyd Woodcock	Port Adelaide	North Adelaide	SANFL	​
77	Atu Bosenavulagi	Collingwood	Oakleigh Chargers	TAC Cup	Next Generation Academy eligible (born in Fiji)​
78	Will Hayes

 

[Max zero]

POTENTIALLY Kelly could help us win the flag.

POTENTIALLY our flag window is shut in 2021 once Kennedy retires and the trade is diminished.

I don't see what your argument is here. Maybe they could have been a bust pick so might as well just throw them in the deal anyway?


I'm stoked to land Kelly, however i'm free to think we've overpaid and it could POTENTIALLY hurt us in the long run.

You on the other hand are happy paying whatever it seems. We'll know in 6 years time i guess.

I would of liked to keep 33 as well but honestly we were probably only using one pick in this draft anyway.

Masten, Mutimer and MAllen out
Kelly, Watson (promo) and ??? in

Our 33 after compo is probably mid to late 30s which is basically speculation territory anyway since the talent is supposed to drop off at 30. After the end of the 2nd round clubs are already starting to pass on picks because their lists are full.

Is having your one speculative pick at 52 (55+) instead of 33 (36+) worth not getting Kelly?

 

[HoneyBadger35]

I'd feel a lot worse if we'd sent multiple picks out from several drafts into the future, but this is punting one draft. One and a half max.

We can survive without anyone born in 2001 on our list, riding the progress of our 1999/2000 and then eventually 2002 crew isn't an invalid approach.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Historically our window opens every 10-12 years, missing out on 1.5 drafts wont do much to our chances when it opens again. Might as well push hard while we have the chance. It may be overs in terms of 33 but will 33 matter in 10 years?

You're probably right.

But what if 33 mattered in the next 6 years, while we still have TK.

What if that 33 played a key part in our next premiership the same way Ryan did this year? We'll never know obviously.



As for all you other campaigners @ me, i'll just say this, i feel we've shot ourselves in the foot here.

Particularly in a situation where it all seemed to fall into our lap, gun player, local, out of contract, nominates us, family reasons, what more could you want...

And yet still we've paid absolute top dollar


That's it, i've said my peace. God bless you. God bless us all.

 

[shooshka]

I would of liked to keep 33 as well but honestly we were probably only using one pick in this draft anyway.

Masten, Mutimer and MAllen out
Kelly, Watson (promo) and ??? in

Our 33 after compo is probably mid to late 30s which is basically speculation territory anyway since the talent is supposed to drop off at 30. After the end of the 2nd round clubs are already starting to pass on picks because their lists are full.

Is having your one speculative pick at 52 (55+) instead of 33 (36+) worth not getting Kelly?

33 is probably likely to move out, but I'd guess 52 is likely to move in also - might end up very late 40's

 

[Bender_]

You're probably right.

But what if 33 mattered in the next 6 years, while we still have TK.

What if that 33 played a key part in our next premiership the same way Ryan did this year? We'll never know obviously.



As for all you other campaigners @ me, i'll just say this, i feel we've shot ourselves in the foot here.

Particularly in a situation where it all seemed to fall into our lap, gun player, local, out of contract, nominates us, family reasons, what more could you want...

And yet still we've paid absolute top dollar


That's it, i've said my peace. God bless you. God bless us all.

Shouldn't you have gone back to the Eeyore avatar?

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Current senior list status

2019 list: 39 players plus one vacancy
Out: Masten, presumably Mellen and Mutimer
In: Kelly, Watson

We’ve got two spots for draft picks unless we delist someone else. Brayshaw probably the most likely, though I’d like to see him re-rookied if that’s the case.

 

[Forward Press]

You're probably right.

But what if 33 mattered in the next 6 years, while we still have TK.

What if that 33 played a key part in our next premiership the same way Ryan did this year? We'll never know obviously.



As for all you other campaigners @ me, i'll just say this, i feel we've shot ourselves in the foot here.

Particularly in a situation where it all seemed to fall into our lap, gun player, local, out of contract, nominates us, family reasons, what more could you want...

And yet still we've paid absolute top dollar


That's it, i've said my peace. God bless you. God bless us all.

The trading and drafting people all know each other, so maybe, just maybe, it pays to not be a complete dickwipe at the table so when the shoe is on the other foot we don't get shafted? Imagine also if we told Tim Kelly 'sorry mate, wanna have you in blue and gold, but we refused to let go of pick 33, enjoy Freo'.

I would hate to gain a reputation like Essendon.

 

[Biggie]

I'd feel a lot worse if we'd sent multiple picks out from several drafts into the future, but this is punting one draft. One and a half max.

We can survive without anyone born in 2001 on our list, riding the progress of our 1999/2000 and then eventually 2002 crew isn't an invalid approach.

Exactly.

 

[eagles rule]

How is that what we’ve missed? We missed out on a kid in the teens, another kid somewhere from 1-18 next year, a kid in the 20s and ONE kid in the 30s.

For arguments sake 14, 14, 24, 33 or picks very close has been used recently to get:
Duggan, brander, Allen, Petch/Foley/ains

Would you be happy to trade that collective of players for kelly? When all is said and done when we look back at the careers of those taken we will not be ahead with Kelly’s 5-7 years, that is almost guaranteed.

This trade is only a success if we grab another premiership in the next 2-3 years and kelly is integral. There’s a bit of pressure there.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

The pressure is on the guys who were on holidays during 2019 even though we played finals , a lot of our games where unconvincing and yet class pulled us through or we were hammered proper ..


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ChampRevesby]

ALso remembers peeps that we are one of the most wealthy and powerful clubs in the land. So who cares, all the Vics are pricks.

 

[DJMac]

Thanks, he is very composed and handled the media well.

 

[RookiePick]

This must be the first draft in recent memory that hasn't had a "super-draft" label affixed to it.

 

[Dark Sharks]

The trading and drafting people all know each other, so maybe, just maybe, it pays to not be a complete dickwipe at the table so when the shoe is on the other foot we don't get shafted?

Keeping 33 is hardly being a dick wipe. Jesus.

2 firsts is a reasonable offer. 2 firsts + one of 24 or 33 is more than fair. We all said as much with our predictions in the lead up.

You're acting like us keeping just ONE of 2nd round picks would be completely unreasonable.

There's plenty of room in-between being a dick wipe and standing firm as a club considering we held all the cards in the trade.



Are you expecting now that because of this, Geelong is just going to be a bucket of delights to deal with in future? You think that's a thing?

 

[ChampRevesby]

Thanks, he is very composed and handled the media well.

Pity the video was potato quality. Hopefully there is a proper one released soon.

 

[Wadsworth]

I'd have preferred Kelly + a speculative 18 year old in the 30's just quietly.

Just because we CAN give them everything we had, doesn't mean we should.

Vosso: See Dark Sharks, I told you they could take every draft pick we had.
Dark Sharks: I didn't say they couldn't, I said you Shouldn't!

Yes, Dark Sharks, you are Marge Simpson... but I agree with you on this one. Happy to have made the trade, but suspect we didn't optimise our position.

 

[WCE_phil]

There is no way I'd take Neale or Shiel over Kelly and I like to think a thread on the polls board about it might surprise you. Goal kicking ball winning midfielders don't grow on trees.

Neale is the very interesting one. Shiel had just had to adjust to an entirely new system and had his worst year in 4 years this year. Same age as Kelly however easily the most important mid to Essendon.

Neale was banana number 2 at freo and then goes to number 1 banana at Brisbane and has a career best year. Both are also inside midfielders, both are also goal kicking midfielders, both the same age and both have 4-5 years at, just below or above the level of form that Kelly displayed this year. From a management perspective you work on 3 things. Exposed form, potential future form and cost.

Kelly has 1 year at their sort of level, they have 4-5. Realistically that should mandate Kelly is worth less in a trade than either of the other two.

Now i'm not saying i'm not happy to have kelly in the side, I really, really am. I also think he's a great player and to be able to put the performances he has in this year with the home stresses he's had speaks absolute volumes for his and his families character and the sort of people they are.

I just think our list management and trade team rolled over and paid well over the odds.

What do I think is fair based upon those previous two trades and this i consider generous. 2019,2020 first round for Kelly and Geelongs pick 36.
What do i think is a fair price based upon knowing what we know about the drafting landscape this year, next year and allowing geelong a media and draft win. 2019,2020 first round and 33 for Kelly and 36. They get the win in not only not giving us back a second rounder they get to upgrade theirs a touch.
What do I consider the absolute max we should have paid and held on for until the very last minute 14,24 and 2020 first for Kelly and 36.

What did we pay. 14,24,33, 2020 first for Kelly and a 2020 third round pick.

 

[Quinz]

That's it, i've said my peace. God bless you. God bless us all.

Keeping 33 is hardly being a dick wipe. Jesus.

2 firsts is a reasonable offer. 2 firsts + one of 24 or 33 is more than fair. We all said as much with our predictions in the lead up.

You're acting like us keeping just ONE of 2nd round picks would be completely unreasonable.

There's plenty of room in-between being a dick wipe and standing firm as a club considering we held all the cards in the trade.



Are you expecting now that because of this, Geelong is just going to be a bucket of delights to deal with in future? You think that's a thing?

 

[Patterz123]

No caption needed for this pic

 

[Forward Press]

Keeping 33 is hardly being a dick wipe. Jesus.

2 firsts is a reasonable offer. 2 firsts + one of 24 or 33 is more than fair. We all said as much with our predictions in the lead up.

You're acting like us keeping just ONE of 2nd round picks would be completely unreasonable.

There's plenty of room in-between being a dick wipe and standing firm as a club considering we held all the cards in the trade.



Are you expecting now that because of this, Geelong is just going to be a bucket of delights to deal with in future? You think that's a thing?

Of course, I was one of the ones hoping we'd just pay our first two this year plus next year's first. A part of me was hoping we'd even say pick 14 only or he walks to the draft.

But let's be realistic, we are doing what we can for a flag now and we are risking our long term development to ensure Tim Kelly wears blue and gold. If it means placating Geelong then you do it.

In the end, it's proven quality over unknown quanitities - ask the Geelong fans if they preferred the draft picks over Tim Kelly.