Are We a Finals Side?

[mediumsizered]

A lot of things would have to go very right for you to even scrape into the finals IMO. But then again a lot stranger things have happened. You would need a near injury free year, Murphy to explode, Gibbs to almost explode, Judd to not miss a beat after changing clubs, Stevens to not miss a beat coming back from injury, Fevola to have another good year and the defence to seriously step up, Thornton needs to have a career best season and/or 2 or 3 young players need to solidify spots in the backline not to mention you want Simpson and Carazzo to replicate their great form. Too many variables.

Much of what you say is true, but not just for Carlton but for any team in the AFL. Collingwood's 2004 & more particularly 2005 seasons demonstrate what can happen to a team when injuries strike & the playing group lose their way. The same could be said of St Kilda in recent seasons &, even in 2007 two of the Victorian based finalists of 2006, Bulldogs & Melbourne, had major falls down the ladder due to a combination of injuries & loss of confidence & perhaps motivation (this applies more to Melbourne, where like Carlton, the coaches message was no longer getting through).

Of course the prime example of a team succumbing to injuries (& other events) was the West Coast Eagles. After motoring along for the first 8 weeks of the season, only dropping one game (Judd of course scored Brownlow votes in each of these games), injury to Judd & the continued absence of Cousins started to bite & ultimately they lost 8 of their last 16 games, including 3 losses at Subiaco against teams that did not make the finals. This of course culminated in the Eagles losing a tight final at Subiaco against Collingwood in a match in which they were without the big 3 (Judd, Cousins & Kerr).

In most years the premiership is won by the team that has everything, or close to everything going right. The same applies to a certain extent to other teams who make the finals. Would Hawthorn have made the finals if Buddy Franklin & Sam Mitchell had sustained season ending injuries early in the season? Would Collingwood have made the finals if Burns & Rocca had suffered major injuries early in the season & Pendlebury, Goldsack & Clarke didn't have outstanding seasons? The answer to these questions is most likely, no. Certainly we saw a different Geelong team in their Round 21 loss to Power, at Skilled Stadium, minus Bartel, Ling & Selwood & with virtually no input from Mooney & Blake.

Yes, Carlton would need most things to go right to make the finals, there is no doubt about that. An injury free season from the key players ie Judd, Stevens, Murphy, Fevola, Thornton, Simpson & stand out seasons from a Walker, Gibbs, Armfield (or other young players on the list) could see Carlton replicate what Hawthorn & Collingwood achieved in 2007, though.

 

[BlueMania]

That was a good read Medium . Thats the good thing about about football , anything can happen .

 

[Beloved]

Much of what you say is true, but not just for Carlton but for any team in the AFL. Collingwood's 2004 & more particularly 2005 seasons demonstrate what can happen to a team when injuries strike & the playing group lose their way. The same could be said of St Kilda in recent seasons &, even in 2007 two of the Victorian based finalists of 2006, Bulldogs & Melbourne, had major falls down the ladder due to a combination of injuries & loss of confidence & perhaps motivation (this applies more to Melbourne, where like Carlton, the coaches message was no longer getting through).

Of course the prime example of a team succumbing to injuries (& other events) was the West Coast Eagles. After motoring along for the first 8 weeks of the season, only dropping one game (Judd of course scored Brownlow votes in each of these games), injury to Judd & the continued absence of Cousins started to bite & ultimately they lost 8 of their last 16 games, including 3 losses at Subiaco against teams that did not make the finals. This of course culminated in the Eagles losing a tight final at Subiaco against Collingwood in a match in which they were without the big 3 (Judd, Cousins & Kerr).

In most years the premiership is won by the team that has everything, or close to everything going right. The same applies to a certain extent to other teams who make the finals. Would Hawthorn have made the finals if Buddy Franklin & Sam Mitchell had sustained season ending injuries early in the season? Would Collingwood have made the finals if Burns & Rocca had suffered major injuries early in the season & Pendlebury, Goldsack & Clarke didn't have outstanding seasons? The answer to these questions is most likely, no. Certainly we saw a different Geelong team in their Round 21 loss to Power, at Skilled Stadium, minus Bartel, Ling & Selwood & with virtually no input from Mooney & Blake.

Yes, Carlton would need most things to go right to make the finals, there is no doubt about that. An injury free season from the key players ie Judd, Stevens, Murphy, Fevola, Thornton, Simpson & stand out seasons from a Walker, Gibbs, Armfield (or other young players on the list) could see Carlton replicate what Hawthorn & Collingwood achieved in 2007, though.

Very good post here. It just goes to show, it may not matter how good your list is, but on the type of luck one team gets. I'm sure teams have won premierships without really having what you'd call 'a Premiership list'.

 

[T Rick]

No, you are not yet a finals side.

 

[BlueMania]

Very good post here. It just goes to show, it may not matter how good your list is, but on the type of luck one team gets. I'm sure teams have won premierships without really having what you'd call 'a Premiership list'.

The old saying ; a champion team will always beat a team of champions .

 

[Jabso]

Ridiculous post! If all the things that you stated went right we would be playing off for the premiership, not just scraping into finals. Basically you are describing the best midfield in the league peaking in form and the best full forward in the league dominating. Don't know who could come close to us if all this occurred....

Basically what I was trying to say is that your strength should be the midfield. I know I'll get flamed for this but your forward line is overrated. Good but nothing special atm (and why I said Fevola needs to hold it up again). Waite and Fisher are talented, but cannot be relied on and IMO you cannot build a side around them. So to make the finals your midfield has to be exceptionally good (top 5 or so in the AFL) because you probably have the worst defence bar Richmond and your forward line is talented but erratic. Don't kid yourself, if all that happens you won't have the best midfield in the AFL unless Murphy has a brownlow year, Gibbs COMMANDS a spot, and one or both of Carazzo and Simpson have almost AA years.

Also you have a new coach. He could turn out crap or great you never know but certainly there may be teething problems.

 

[Jabso]

Much of what you say is true, but not just for Carlton but for any team in the AFL. Collingwood's 2004 & more particularly 2005 seasons demonstrate what can happen to a team when injuries strike & the playing group lose their way. The same could be said of St Kilda in recent seasons &, even in 2007 two of the Victorian based finalists of 2006, Bulldogs & Melbourne, had major falls down the ladder due to a combination of injuries & loss of confidence & perhaps motivation (this applies more to Melbourne, where like Carlton, the coaches message was no longer getting through).

Of course the prime example of a team succumbing to injuries (& other events) was the West Coast Eagles. After motoring along for the first 8 weeks of the season, only dropping one game (Judd of course scored Brownlow votes in each of these games), injury to Judd & the continued absence of Cousins started to bite & ultimately they lost 8 of their last 16 games, including 3 losses at Subiaco against teams that did not make the finals. This of course culminated in the Eagles losing a tight final at Subiaco against Collingwood in a match in which they were without the big 3 (Judd, Cousins & Kerr).

In most years the premiership is won by the team that has everything, or close to everything going right. The same applies to a certain extent to other teams who make the finals. Would Hawthorn have made the finals if Buddy Franklin & Sam Mitchell had sustained season ending injuries early in the season? Would Collingwood have made the finals if Burns & Rocca had suffered major injuries early in the season & Pendlebury, Goldsack & Clarke didn't have outstanding seasons? The answer to these questions is most likely, no. Certainly we saw a different Geelong team in their Round 21 loss to Power, at Skilled Stadium, minus Bartel, Ling & Selwood & with virtually no input from Mooney & Blake.

Yes, Carlton would need most things to go right to make the finals, there is no doubt about that. An injury free season from the key players ie Judd, Stevens, Murphy, Fevola, Thornton, Simpson & stand out seasons from a Walker, Gibbs, Armfield (or other young players on the list) could see Carlton replicate what Hawthorn & Collingwood achieved in 2007, though.

What I'm trying to get through to some people is that Carlton you are coming off a low base (a nice way of saying you are crap if I can be frank). Unlike more talented teams who have had some finals experience a lot of things have to go wrong for them to miss the finals, and a few things to go right to make the finals, obviously if everything goes right for a team like St. Kilda they will challenge for the premiership, but you can be relatively confident that if more things go right than go wrong they will make the finals.

You can't be this confident about Carlton. They almost have to have premiership caliber luck in terms of injury and players peaking just to make the finals. If I went through every team, Richmond and Carlton are still the two most unlikely to make the finals. Melbourne wouldn't be far in front of Carlton at all, in fact they are probably on level pegging. Richmond are much further behind they need a miracle. Anyway I digress, if I went through every other team less thing would have to go right for them to make the finals. But at this stage of your development cycle I don't think you really need to make them anyway.

 

[Bluebear]

What I'm trying to get through to some people is that Carlton you are coming off a low base (a nice way of saying you are crap if I can be frank). Unlike more talented teams who have had some finals experience a lot of things have to go wrong for them to miss the finals, and a few things to go right to make the finals, obviously if everything goes right for a team like St. Kilda they will challenge for the premiership, but you can be relatively confident that if more things go right than go wrong they will make the finals.

You can't be this confident about Carlton. They almost have to have premiership caliber luck in terms of injury and players peaking just to make the finals. If I went through every team, Richmond and Carlton are still the two most unlikely to make the finals. Melbourne wouldn't be far in front of Carlton at all, in fact they are probably on level pegging. Richmond are much further behind they need a miracle. Anyway I digress, if I went through every other team less thing would have to go right for them to make the finals. But at this stage of your development cycle I don't think you really need to make them anyway.

Yet in 2006 the Dees played in the semi final, and were in many people's top 4 for last year.

How we rate teams and how they perform are often two very differrent things.

Twelve months ago you have have tried to convinve me that aside from Carlton, the Kangaroos had the worst list in the AFL. Everyone though this, and in fact most people had them penned in below the Blues.

What you and other opposition supporters won't acknowledge, is that its possible we under-performed last year. If you acknowledge this and for arguements sake say that all things being equal, we were about a 6-8 win side (which is what most of us thought), then adding Judd and an extra pre-season to the kids might allow us to believe that we could add 5 wins to that.

If you believe that we performed exactly as our list would indicate in 2007 then yes, we would struggle to make the finals.

But how far behind you are we?
About 4 goals based on last year. Do you think that we might be able to close that gap?

Only time will tell.

 

[audas]

Basically what I was trying to say is that your strength should be the midfield. I know I'll get flamed for this but your forward line is overrated. Good but nothing special atm (and why I said Fevola needs to hold it up again). Waite and Fisher are talented, but cannot be relied on and IMO you cannot build a side around them. So to make the finals your midfield has to be exceptionally good (top 5 or so in the AFL) because you probably have the worst defence bar Richmond and your forward line is talented but erratic. Don't kid yourself, if all that happens you won't have the best midfield in the AFL unless Murphy has a brownlow year, Gibbs COMMANDS a spot, and one or both of Carazzo and Simpson have almost AA years.

Also you have a new coach. He could turn out crap or great you never know but certainly there may be teething problems.

was.




This post is like everyone elses, anachronistic junk. The blues have been building for a long time, and will finally replace the team for next season. This may sound odd, but its not.

No Kouta, Lappin, Whits etc. Gone.
Walker, Gibbs, Houlihan GONE from the back pocket
Waite GONE from the forward line

New down back , Armfield, Browne, Hadley, Anderson, Austin, PFieffer, Waite.
All assisting setanta in his FIRST full season as a recognized back. Nice. His bro will be helping out make the back half more dangerous than londonderry on st paddies day.

Midfield takes on Grigg, Hadley (mid/back), Judd, Stevens, with hammo and aisake rucking....nice

Forward line sees cloke, gibbs, houlihan, hartlett and kreuzer ....(no mention of fish or waite).

And of course, Ratten.

As I said......was.

But now, we are different, speculating on last years team is almost pointless, but speculating on this coming season, based on a team that will not be playing is just stupid.

If you want to come on boards and speculate and least have the brains to find out who will be playing, where and how this will affect the team.

You don't know the blues of 2008, no one does.

 

[Miss_Hawk_Fan]

Yet in 2006 the Dees played in the semi final, and were in many people's top 4 for last year.

How we rate teams and how they perform are often two very differrent things.

Twelve months ago you have have tried to convinve me that aside from Carlton, the Kangaroos had the worst list in the AFL. Everyone though this, and in fact most people had them penned in below the Blues.

What you and other opposition supporters won't acknowledge, is that its possible we under-performed last year. If you acknowledge this and for arguements sake say that all things being equal, we were about a 6-8 win side (which is what most of us thought), then adding Judd and an extra pre-season to the kids might allow us to believe that we could add 5 wins to that.

If you believe that we performed exactly as our list would indicate in 2007 then yes, we would struggle to make the finals.

But how far behind you are we?
About 4 goals based on last year. Do you think that we might be able to close that gap?

Only time will tell.

Any AFL club can grab / fluke making it to the finals, a good team will do it continuesly and grab a premiership or Two. The Blues, Lions and hawks have done it in the recent past. Collingwood did it in the vfl years and anbbed 4 premierships in a row (the only AFL club) to achieve that, i do believe...........

 

[HBF]

Any AFL club can grab / fluke making it to the finals, a good team will do it continuesly and grab a premiership or Two. The Blues, Lions and hawks have done it in the recent past. Collingwood did it in the vfl years and anbbed 4 premierships in a row (the only AFL club) to achieve that, i do believe...........

Oh right. A good team should grab flag or 2. Geez, i'd hate to see what a very good team could do, like Geelong .

You can be a good team, and not win a flag. The teams that win flags are generally very good.