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Fixture Are we better off finishing second

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Prexm

All Australian
Aug 22, 2009
790
903
AFL Club
Collingwood
I take your point about the PFs being less of a sure thing now, but it’s not really accurate to say you’re disadvantaged by winning. The loser still has to survive a sudden death SF to make it, which they often don’t.

Or, put it this way-
There have been 12 QF winners:
4/12 (33%) have won the flag
2/12 (17%) have lost the GF
6/12 (50%) have lost the PF

12 QF losers:
1/12 (8%) have won the flag
3/12 (25%) have lost the GF
4/12 (33%) have lost the PF
4/12 (33%) have lost the SF

So you’re still more likely to do well if you win, but of course we need more data.
Wasn’t the 1/12 that have won the flag Richmond in the COVID year with shorter season and shorter games. I will be very surprised this year if the flag is not won by one of the teams that goes straight through to the Prelim.
 

Gone Critical

Moderator
Mar 11, 2007
14,880
24,854
Abbotsford
AFL Club
Collingwood
I take your point about the PFs being less of a sure thing now, but it’s not really accurate to say you’re disadvantaged by winning. The loser still has to survive a sudden death SF to make it, which they often don’t.

Or, put it this way-
There have been 12 QF winners:
4/12 (33%) have won the flag
2/12 (17%) have lost the GF
6/12 (50%) have lost the PF

12 QF losers:
1/12 (8%) have won the flag
3/12 (25%) have lost the GF
4/12 (33%) have lost the PF
4/12 (33%) have lost the SF

So you’re still more likely to do well if you win, but of course we need more data.
Maybe I should have clarified a little better. Its not a disadvantage compared to the loser of the QF, you would still want to win it. Its a disadvantaged compared to what a fair system should result in.

The QF winners overall should be the two best teams on average. They get to play the PF on their home ground. Those circumstances should lead to the QF winners being expected to win. Over time we should see the QF winners more often than not winning their PF. That makes sense and is what any assessment would expect. Pre the finals bye the system worked, 85% of QF winners won their PF. What else would you expect.

Since the finals bye the rate has dropped to 50%. It makes no sense that the two best teams on average, with a home ground advantage, should only win 50% of the time. The only logical conclusion is the finals bye has disrupted the QF finals prep significantly. There is no real advantage to the finals bye, why have it?
 

magpie_marty

Premium Platinum
Apr 30, 2017
6,189
7,275
AFL Club
Collingwood
I'm not thinking about finishing second. I want us to just win the next game and carry the momentum forward.

Assuming we beat Essendon and finish on top of the ladder as expected, I think the first Qualifying Final against Melbourne is probably going to be our most critical game. Equally as critical for Melbourne.

Lose to Melbourne, and we likely have to face a rampant Carlton at the MCG followed by Brisbane at the Gabba. We will have very little home ground advantage throughout finals.

Win against Melbourne and our home ground advantage is maximised.



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Terrible feeling your on the money here.
 

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Kreme Pie

Team Captain
Apr 15, 2018
574
964
AFL Club
Collingwood
I’d Prefer to play Port at MCG after finishing second. I would rather not play Dees at MCG in first week of finals.

That’s coming from a long suffering supporter with scar tissue.

Truth is, you have to beat the best to be the best. Anywhere, any time. Coaches and players will have to bring the heat in the QF. Win that, and we’ll be in the box seat.
 

thebaldfacts

All Australian
Aug 24, 2009
684
1,526
AFL Club
Collingwood
I'm not thinking about finishing second. I want us to just win the next game and carry the momentum forward.

Assuming we beat Essendon and finish on top of the ladder as expected, I think the first Qualifying Final against Melbourne is probably going to be our most critical game. Equally as critical for Melbourne.

Lose to Melbourne, and we likely have to face a rampant Carlton at the MCG followed by Brisbane at the Gabba. We will have very little home ground advantage throughout finals.

Win against Melbourne and our home ground advantage is maximised.



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Expecting Collingwood v Melbourne qualifying final, with the winner ultimately being premiers.
 

Timmy from Thomastown

TheBrownDog
May 25, 2006
63,291
43,892
Beach
AFL Club
Collingwood
I’d Prefer to play Port at MCG after finishing second. I would rather not play Dees at MCG in first week of finals.

That’s coming from a long suffering supporter with scar tissue.

Truth is, you have to beat the best to be the best. Anywhere, any time. Coaches and players will have to bring the heat in the QF. Win that, and we’ll be in the box seat.

So let’s beat Melbourne in the QF and make life easier. I’d much rather play them in the QF than the PF. Makes infinitely more sense for the game without home ground advantage to be the double chance game than a knockout game. We also increase our chances of a home GF by forcing Melbourne to go the long way if we beat them.

Arguments both ways , it wil be what it will be, but that’s my take.
 

iGNITER

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 6, 2007
8,261
7,587
Vegas
AFL Club
Collingwood
To win it we have to beat them all. Not bothered by 1st or 2nd. This team isn’t scared of playing any side.

Remember the good old wrestling days and one of the GOATS sums it up perfectly

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unplugged

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 8, 2008
19,901
30,708
Victoria
AFL Club
Collingwood
Correct me if I'm wrong but if we win tomorrow we legit could play Brisbane, Port OR Melbourne but we won't know for sure until each team plays?
 

caloschwaby

Whisper
Jan 3, 2017
4,748
6,283
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Celtics, Renegades, Packers
Correct me if I'm wrong but if we win tomorrow we legit could play Brisbane, Port OR Melbourne but we won't know for sure until each team plays?
Correct :)

It largely depends on whether Brisbane lose, which I'd say is the least likely of any "surprise" results to happen

Barrack for the Saints like you've never before, could be a free ride to the GF

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Carringbush2010

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
19,111
11,865
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Bump.

Would rather play port or bris in the qf. Need another sharpener before dee's I reckon.

I know it looks like we've got our game back in the first quarter on Friday.

But dee's a different prospect.

Can't see us winning the whole box and dice going the long route.
 

Doc1763

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 29, 2019
8,215
12,241
AFL Club
Collingwood
Bump.

Would rather play port or bris in the qf. Need another sharpener before dee's I reckon.

I know it looks like we've got our game back in the first quarter on Friday.

But dee's a different prospect.

Can't see us winning the whole box and dice going the long route.
Sure, playing Port or Brisbane week 1 would be preferable.

But, the reward for beating Melbourne week 1 is significant - they would then have to probably play Carlton week 2, with the winner then travelling to Brisbane.
 

Carringbush2010

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
19,111
11,865
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Sure, playing Port or Brisbane week 1 would be preferable.

But, the reward for beating Melbourne week 1 is significant - they would then have to probably play Carlton week 2, with the winner then travelling to Brisbane.
Easier said than done, we'll need more than one quarter of footy to get over Melbourne.

We win it the confidence rockets up, coz it will have to mean we've played 2 or 3 quarters, lose and it might dent confidence badly.

All hinges on form.
 

Kes1984

Club Legend
Aug 25, 2022
2,237
4,643
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Maybe I should have clarified a little better. Its not a disadvantage compared to the loser of the QF, you would still want to win it. Its a disadvantaged compared to what a fair system should result in.

The QF winners overall should be the two best teams on average. They get to play the PF on their home ground. Those circumstances should lead to the QF winners being expected to win. Over time we should see the QF winners more often than not winning their PF. That makes sense and is what any assessment would expect. Pre the finals bye the system worked, 85% of QF winners won their PF. What else would you expect.

Since the finals bye the rate has dropped to 50%. It makes no sense that the two best teams on average, with a home ground advantage, should only win 50% of the time. The only logical conclusion is the finals bye has disrupted the QF finals prep significantly. There is no real advantage to the finals bye, why have it?
I posted some stats on this last year after we lost the QF. Last year went against the grain of the trends since the pre finals bye was introduced and both QF winners played the GF.
BUT I was clinging to hope for us last year, that you’re a decent chance still making a grand final from losing a QF.
What I found especially interesting was that only the dogs had made a grand final from outside top 4 in that top. Winning one losing one.
 
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