sr36
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Perhaps our recent form has been about practicing turning on and off inorder to overcome the bye issues.
Fixture Are we better off finishing second
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Probably.... but a loss to the bombers now would be diabolical. So winning form is better. We're also no guarantee against anyone atm, so doesnt really matter where we finish
Given that we are playing on Friday night, our winning or losing is not the definitive, determining factor of who we play anyway. So what’s the point of the speculation.
Yes with us playing first anyway, we’ll have absolutely no idea who we meet. And if we do win, Port may actually want to lose and aim to play us ahead of Brisbane at the Gabba.
Melbourne may also lose though. I don’t rate them like others do and they have to play an in-form and AFL-favoured Sydney at the SCG. Port play first too so they don’t get to know the Melbourne result. If Melbourne lose, they’ll still stay 4th.
Melbourne on the other hand, will want to play week one at the G. If we win Friday night, they can tank to ensure that happens.
I’m inclined to back us to play Melbourne week one. Meet them while we have the double chance. Frankly any of the other top 4 sides are a challenge for us even at the G.
ipswichpies
Premiership Player
Unless you were Bris 2001 to 2003 or the Bombers 84 and 85 I think the flag is usually a raffle, I will say we were badly affected by injury in both games against the Lions this season and the Dees I think you can say played us at the right time. We need to come out firing against the Bombers.
Gone Critical
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No that's not correct. In the final 4 then final 5 there was a clear hierarchy with the team finishing on top winning most flags then second then third and so on. You got an advantage but not a guarantee by the top finish
Since the final 8 it doesnt matter much whether you finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd, you win flags at roughly equal numbers. its a flawed system.
ipswichpies
Premiership Player
`Yes you right we have to beat the Bombers before we worry about anything else and yes I agree if somehow we lose to Essendon we will not recover from that.
So for me our season kicks off again friday and how we come out will give us a good idea of where we really stand and how far we will go this season.
Finishing first still gives you a slight advantage because you get to play the lowest ranked of the top four teams in the qf.
ipswichpies
Premiership Player
Explain the aberation of 92 then,we were equal top and finished 3 1 finals game and we were done.Got beaten by St Kilda who had a bye the final week before finals started. In 92 we finished 16 wins the same as the bulldogs and the Cats inferior % and we got bundled out it was the worst feeling ever as I was sure if all things were equal we would have won that season. I think with the advent of the bye before finals will lead to teams 5 to 8 being able to win if good enough,the bye will prove a great leveller it may not have so far but it will in the future and then you just have to be the best team in september.
sr36
Hall of Famer
It's only flawed if you start with the premise that the top team should start with an advantage over other teams in the finals.
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The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
Disagree. What matters is getting to the QF without losing any more players. Essendon are irrelevant and unless Port plan on making up 12% on us in one week, so is the result.
A win would be a bonus, the “scoreboard” is the injury list and possible suspensions a la McCreery.
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They need to get some momentum going from this week, I’m sure they believe they will switch on but it’s needs to start this week.
I reckon the group will not be giving up Top spot at the final hurdle.
Injuries, well just hope we get through unscathed and can go into finals in a reasonably healthy position.
The Royal Sampler
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I see that as a want rather than a need.
BlackNWhiteFreightTrain
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I think it definitely matters who we play and where. Whoever gets Bris at the Gabba is drawing the short straw. If we face Bris at the G however, game on!!!
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So the only “system” that will show that it isn’t flawed is one where the end result has the top finisher winning the most flags? Why don’t we just bin the finals entirely?
PS. Need to also remove ‘21 from your pre-finals bye data. Don’t think we had one that year. So we are down to 5 series with the bye to review. Think we need a few more.
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jmac70
On the porch
Personally, I like the bye. Gives me a chance to reset before the finals.
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“We want to act like winners.” - Craig McRae
When did he say that other than November 2021?
cfc19902010
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definitely prefer to play port at the mcg week 1 ..I think it gives us greater chance of progressing to grand final and winning.flag..yes we probably have to beat Melbourne and Brisbane along the way but having a fit nick and Darcy available for preliminary strengthens us to deal with them later..I think our best chance of progressing to preliminary means playing port week 1 at the g
ipswichpies
Premiership Player
I think the pre finals bye will be a great leveller in time,you know I think we are heading to a final ten exactly the same as the VFL it may take a couple of years but it will come and probably the same format as the VFL.
Top 6 get a week off with 7 to 10 playing each other then straight into final 8,that would make it easier for top 6 but that is fair enough you must have some benefit for finishing high.
TheGreatSwan
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I'm not thinking about finishing second. I want us to just win the next game and carry the momentum forward.
Assuming we beat Essendon and finish on top of the ladder as expected, I think the first Qualifying Final against Melbourne is probably going to be our most critical game. Equally as critical for Melbourne.
Lose to Melbourne, and we likely have to face a rampant Carlton at the MCG followed by Brisbane at the Gabba. We will have very little home ground advantage throughout finals.
Win against Melbourne and our home ground advantage is maximised.
Assuming we beat Essendon and finish on top of the ladder as expected, I think the first Qualifying Final against Melbourne is probably going to be our most critical game. Equally as critical for Melbourne.
Lose to Melbourne, and we likely have to face a rampant Carlton at the MCG followed by Brisbane at the Gabba. We will have very little home ground advantage throughout finals.
Win against Melbourne and our home ground advantage is maximised.
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
I think he does want us to act like winners, and that that is the potential source of frustration for Fly that we’re not getting the job done at the moment.
The counter points to that are that despite saying he won’t manage players; he’s managing players. Mitchell has been subbed multiple times. Pendlebury had a nice sit on the bench in a second half there. Bobby Hill reportedly would have played last week “if it was the GF”. Fly is just keeping it low-key so complacency doesn’t set in.
The GPS numbers cited elsewhere are illustrative; we aren’t emptying the tank at the moment. We aren’t showing all our cards to win, either. When Murphy went down, Howe stayed forward.
Fly playing at Brisbane through 2001-2004 finished 2nd, 2nd, 3rd and 2nd at the end of the H & A season. McLelland Trophies are not the aim. Peaking for finals is the aim.
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