Backing up a grand final loss and winning a flag the next year

[BigVic]

Only 5 teams in the last 34 years have won a premiership after losing a grand final the previous year

Eagles lost 1991 won 1992
North Melbourne lost 1998 won 1999 (as Kangaroos)
Eagles lost 2005 won 2006
Geelong lost 2008 won 2009
Hawthorn lost 2012 won 2013

3 of them, Geelong (1994-1995), St Kilda 2009 (drew 2010, lost replay) and Collingwood (lost 2002, lost 2003) made consecutive Grand Final appearances AFTER a loss the previous year. Geelong 1994-45 were the only team in the 1990s to lose two consecutive grand finals after losing the previous years.

Big task for Chris Fagan and Brisbane after they went down in last year's Grand Final with Hawthorn 2012, 2013 the last team to do so

 

[Freomaniac]

Only 5 teams in the last 34 years have won a premiership after losing a grand final the previous year

Eagles lost 1991 won 1992
North Melbourne lost 1998 won 1999 (as Kangaroos)
Eagles lost 2005 won 2006
Geelong lost 2008 won 2009
Hawthorn lost 2012 won 2013

Two of them, St Kilda 2009 (drew 2010, lost replay) and Collingwood (lost 2002, lost 2003) made consecutive Grand Final appearances AFTER a loss the previous year.

Big task for Chris Fagan and Brisbane after they went down in last year's Grand Final with Hawthorn 2012, 2013 the last team to do so

even if you want to go further back....

Hawks lost the 1987 grand final and won 1988 and 1989.

Carlton lost in 1986, but won in 1987,

Bombers lost the 1983 grand final but won 1984-5.



But saying that... I wont be shocked if Brisbane won the 2024 grand final, especially vs a non vic side.

 

[adammania9]

The numbers aren't strong, but there's a decent correlation with those winners having played numerous finals series in the lead-up to their premiership

West Coast - 1988, 1990, 1991
North Melbourne - 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998
West Coast - 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
Geelong - 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008
Hawthorn - 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012
Brisbane - 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, ???

 

[justlookingaround]

It's obviously very hard to do, but out of any team I'd back Brisbane to do it.
They overcame the adversity of multiple straight sets exits to make a GF - that in itself is pretty rare.
Also, trends get broken all the time - the 2023 GF was the first time in the history of the top-8 system that the two losing prelim finalists from the previous year went on to make the grand final.
We say 'that never happens' ... then when it happens we say 'well, that hardly ever happens!'

 

[The Passenger]

For a while, we needed to change the old adage to be you've got to win one (or more) before you can lose one.

Essendon - 2000 : 2001
Brisbane - 2001/2/3 : 2004
Sydney - 2005 : 2006
Geelong - 2007 : 2008
Collingwood - 2010 : 2011
Sydney - 2012 : 2014 (OK, small liberty with the gap)

 

[PerthBoy86]

Yeah back to back is hard, you need a few things to go your way.

Also AFL teams have 18 players on the field which, if you think about it, evens things out. In individual sports like tennis a player as dominant as Rafael Nadal can win 14 out of 18 or so titles at one tournament. In NBA with 5 on the court 3 peats and more aren't that uncommon.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

The Lions are going to be hard to beat this year. Had them and us in b2b granny's before it even panned out last year.


They're going to be very hard to beat again.

 

[BigVic]

This was mentioned on Fox Footy by Leigh Montagna

Leigh Montagna

Age

40

Ht

178cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.9

5star

K

14.8

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

4.7

4star

T

4.0

5star

MG

482.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

5.0

1star

K

3.8

2star

HB

1.2

2star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.4

4star

last Sunday on First Crack Season Preview. Lions have to defy history.

Montreal Canadiens won 4 Stanley Cups in a row in the 1970s and no team in nearly 100 years have won 4 VFL/AFL flags in a row.

 

[Freomaniac]

For a while, we needed to change the old adage to be you've got to win one (or more) before you can lose one.

Essendon - 2000 : 2001
Brisbane - 2001/2/3 : 2004
Sydney - 2005 : 2006
Geelong - 2007 : 2008
Collingwood - 2010 : 2011
Sydney - 2012 : 2014 (OK, small liberty with the gap)

essendon lost in 1990 and won in 1993.

carlton lost in 1993 and won in 1995.

North won in 1996 but lost in 1998 then won again in 1999

 

[Roddy]

We are the masters of this across the last half-century:
Lost in '75, came back and won in '76.
Lost in '85, came back and won in '86.
Lost in '87, came back and won 3 of the next 4.
Lost in '12, came back and won the next 3 in a row.

 

[Partridge]

The numbers aren't strong, but there's a decent correlation with those winners having played numerous finals series in the lead-up to their premiership

West Coast - 1988, 1990, 1991
North Melbourne - 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998
West Coast - 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
Geelong - 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008
Hawthorn - 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012
Brisbane - 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, ???

Include Richmond in that list. They played finals before 2017 as well.

 

[Drunkcat]

even if you want to go further back....

Hawks lost the 1987 grand final and won 1988 and 1989.

Carlton lost in 1986, but won in 1987,

Bombers lost the 1983 grand final but won 1984-5.



But saying that... I wont be shocked if Brisbane won the 2024 grand final, especially vs a non vic side.

That's back in the days of brown paper bags.

 

[Liam Boy]

All of North's premierships except 1996 have been won this way. Lost to Richmond in 1974, beat Hawthorn in 1975. Lost to Hawthorn in 1976, drew then beat Collingwood in 1977. Lost to Adelaide in 1998, beat Carlton in 1999.

Also worth noting this has happened for the past 3 seasons running in the AFLW. Adelaide were runners up in 2021, then premiers in 2022 season 6. Melbourne runners up in S6, premiers in S7. Brisbane runners up in S7, premiers in 2023. Hopefully North can keep it going next year.

 

[juss]

Only 5 teams in the last 34 years have won a premiership after losing a grand final the previous year

Eagles lost 1991 won 1992
North Melbourne lost 1998 won 1999 (as Kangaroos)
Eagles lost 2005 won 2006
Geelong lost 2008 won 2009
Hawthorn lost 2012 won 2013

3 of them, Geelong (1994-1995), St Kilda 2009 (drew 2010, lost replay) and Collingwood (lost 2002, lost 2003) made consecutive Grand Final appearances AFTER a loss the previous year. Geelong 1994-45 were the only team in the 1990s to lose two consecutive grand finals after losing the previous years.

Big task for Chris Fagan and Brisbane after they went down in last year's Grand Final with Hawthorn 2012, 2013 the last team to do so

That's about 15% strike rate.

Given in a 16/18 team league the probabilities all things equal would be about 6% or about 5%, it's "above" the all things equal average.

I'd be keen to compare it to the strike rate of premiers winning B2B, e.g. are you statistically/historically more likely to win the flag if you WIN the GF the year before or LOSE the GF the year before.

 

[DreadBat5701894]

How does margin affect the frequency? Because teams who lose by a close margin usually perform much better the following season than teams who get smashed.

 

[blinkd]

I don’t think Brisbane lost a game at the Gabba last season and their record of the last few seasons at home is impressive. So if they finish in a position which gives them home finals you would have to back them in for another Gf appearance

 

[threesixpio]

 

[threesixpio]

Not sure the 2009 win helped in the end judging by this

 

[Lsta062]

Include Richmond in that list. They played finals before 2017 as well.

That’s true. We lost the GF in 2018 and won in 2019 and 2020

 

[STPer18]

Not sure the 2009 win helped in the end judging by this

2013 obviously didn't help after the bundled job in 2012 either. That or these guys are just ultra competitive and hate losing.

 

[threesixpio]

2013 obviously didn't help after the bundled job in 2012 either. That or these guys are just ultra competitive and hate losing.

View attachment 1919459

Hodge speaks of this disappointment in past tense “it DROVE us to” etc.

Mark T is saying, 2009 and 2007 were not enough NOW.

Obvious difference is that 2009 will never be B2B.

I am positing, and I am completely open to being wrong, that Hodge presently feels less upset about 2012 due to the 2013-2015. One might even argue that Hodge is inferring “thank * we lost 2012 because it drove us to the next three flags”.

I hear no such reflection from Mark T, by contrast. I hear him being stuck in 2008. Did he even enjoy 2009 that much and for that matter did most Geelong fans or was it just a relief?

 

[STPer18]

Did he even enjoy 2009 that much and for that matter did most Geelong fans or was it just a relief?

We hated it and wished we lost. 2011 and 2022 for that matter too. I speak for all Geelong fans when I say we wish we weren't the most successful club of the 21st century. Look at the sheer lack of enjoyment here.

 

[PhatBoy]

Hodge speaks of this disappointment in past tense “it DROVE us to” etc.

Mark T is saying, 2009 and 2007 were not enough NOW.

Obvious difference is that 2009 will never be B2B.

I am positing, and I am completely open to being wrong, that Hodge presently feels less upset about 2012 due to the 2013-2015. One might even argue that Hodge is inferring “thank * we lost 2012 because it drove us to the next three flags”.

I hear no such reflection from Mark T, by contrast. I hear him being stuck in 2008. Did he even enjoy 2009 that much and for that matter did most Geelong fans or was it just a relief?

No mate, like most people we hated winning the flag.

I literally think this upsets other fans more than it does us.

 

[Osho]

Only 5 teams in the last 34 years have won a premiership after losing a grand final the previous year

Eagles lost 1991 won 1992
North Melbourne lost 1998 won 1999 (as Kangaroos)
Eagles lost 2005 won 2006
Geelong lost 2008 won 2009
Hawthorn lost 2012 won 2013

3 of them, Geelong (1994-1995), St Kilda 2009 (drew 2010, lost replay) and Collingwood (lost 2002, lost 2003) made consecutive Grand Final appearances AFTER a loss the previous year. Geelong 1994-45 were the only team in the 1990s to lose two consecutive grand finals after losing the previous years.

Big task for Chris Fagan and Brisbane after they went down in last year's Grand Final with Hawthorn 2012, 2013 the last team to do so

So, the very best of sides do this. It is a test for Brizzy. I recall powerhouse Essendon North and Richmond also doing it a bit earlier. Are Brizzy in that ilk? I suspect not, perhaps more like a Collingwood of the 70s? We shall see.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Only 5 teams in the last 34 years have won a premiership after losing a grand final the previous year

Eagles lost 1991 won 1992
North Melbourne lost 1998 won 1999 (as Kangaroos)
Eagles lost 2005 won 2006
Geelong lost 2008 won 2009
Hawthorn lost 2012 won 2013

3 of them, Geelong (1994-1995), St Kilda 2009 (drew 2010, lost replay) and Collingwood (lost 2002, lost 2003) made consecutive Grand Final appearances AFTER a loss the previous year. Geelong 1994-45 were the only team in the 1990s to lose two consecutive grand finals after losing the previous years.

Big task for Chris Fagan and Brisbane after they went down in last year's Grand Final with Hawthorn 2012, 2013 the last team to do so

Only 4 teams in the last 34 years have been able to go B2B, but it doesn’t stop a large number of people suggesting that the Premiership side will do it all again when the new season starts.