Media Baz Stats S31

[Agent93]

If you have a solution to the problem, I'm all ears.

Only suggestion I've got is divide your current ADT by the conditions multplier in each fixture. The top players in each fixture will still be the top players but the discrepancy of the number of events between each fixture will be largely evened out.

If you applied this historically you'd probably find out that Tony Lynn 15's S24 grand final wasn't the greatest of all time.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

Only suggestion I've got is divide your current ADT by the conditions multplier in each fixture. The top players in each fixture will still be the top players but the discrepancy of the number of events between each fixture will be largely evened out.

If you applied this historically you'd probably find out that Tony Lynn 15's S24 grand final wasn't the greatest of all time.

LOL. You could divide that by any number and it would still be the greatest individual performance in a GF of all time.

 

[The Half Back]

That is true. However, they don't play in the same conditions as players from other games that you are comparing them against.

Surely over an entire season, every player plays in a similar amount of each type of condition game?

 

[Barrybran]

Surely over an entire season, every player plays in a similar amount of each type of condition game?

Agent93 does have a point in that a back pocket who switches to ruck rover in fine conditions gets a significant jump over another back pocket who switches to ruck rover in muddy conditions. These issues will tend to iron themselves out over the course of a full season though as everyone has the same chances of being moved/benched.

 

[Agent93]

Surely over an entire season, every player plays in a similar amount of each type of condition game?

Here's the numbers for S30:



They're compared to warm conditions, which would be 100%. Warm is the base number of events in the sim, which means the number of events the sim generates per quarter is multiplied by 1.00 (the other multipliers are Muddy = 0.65, Rainy = 0.85, Cloudy = 1.15, and Fine = 1.25). The Swamprats and Bombers were closest to even, but the league as a whole had more poor condition games than good.

In the extreme example what that means for an individual player is roughly over the course of a season a midfielder averaging 78.0 DT at the Warriors would have averaged 67.4 DT at the Furies despite them having similar outcomes within their own games. The former DT average puts you front and centre for an All SFA nod, the latter consigns you to the also rans.

 

[Barrybran]

Here's the numbers for S30:

View attachment 1118976

They're compared to warm conditions, which would be 100%. Warm is the base number of events in the sim, which means the number of events the sim generates per quarter is multiplied by 1.00 (the other multipliers are Muddy = 0.65, Rainy = 0.85, Cloudy = 1.15, and Fine = 1.25). The Swamprats and Bombers were closest to even, but the league as a whole had more poor condition games than good.

In the extreme example what that means for an individual player is roughly over the course of a season a midfielder averaging 78.0 DT at the Warriors would have averaged 67.4 DT at the Furies despite them having similar outcomes within their own games. The former DT average puts you front and centre for an All SFA nod, the latter consigns you to the also rans.

Which is why this thread exists. On raw numbers, the Warriors look head and shoulders above. When you factor in the opposition, the weather impact is nullified to an extent.

Now, to argue that the Warriors are still being favoured by the weather would be to argue that the Warriors have gained more from positional changes than any other team.

The problem with that though is that the Warriors have seven players near the top of my positional rankings AFTER accounting for their opponents. The chances of that happening due to weather are incredibly slim as every player across every position has the same chance of being moved or benched.

If we're looking at offense only, weather absolutely plays a part. When you factor in defense, these advantages are significantly reduced.

 

[Tonga Bob]

That's not really what I'm getting at. Within the same game it's fine. Across games it's not.

Now purely for selfish reasons I was comparing the Rd13 change of the wingers. Porps scored 60-odd DT in a muddy match, Bonga got 130-odd in a cloudy match, and mattnumbers got 90-odd in warm, and per each game they were in the top performers. They've all had 'good' games within their game, but when you compare players of the same type between games you get a different result: the ADT increases close to the same amount as the DT (for wingers), so the gap between mattnumbers and porps goes from +42 to +77, the gap between porps and Bonga goes from -46 to +36.

If you do a fairly rudimentary mod by dividing the DT output by the same event multipler used by the sim the 60-, 130- and 90- odd become 90-, 115- and 90-odd respectively. I reckon we can then more fairly state that Bonga's game was the best, but there's not as much between porps and mattnumbers as the change in their totals between rounds suggests.

Using a real world example according to the coaches votes in Round 7 Shai Bolton and Tim Kelly were the unanimous best on ground in each of their games. TK had 42 touches and 141 DT, Bolton had 2 touches and 101 DT. Clears the derby and the Dogs/Tigers clashes were different types and standards of game, however the measure across games has them as equals, but taking their games separately TK had a better game by 40 points.

All that said, it's your stats piece

All I'm hearing is that I am the GOAT winger.

Carry on.

 

[serial_thrilla]

All I'm hearing is that I am the second best winger.

Carry on.

EFA

 

[Barrybran]

All I'm hearing is that I am the GOAT swinger.

Carry on.

EFA

 

[The Half Back]

Here's the numbers for S30:

View attachment 1118976

They're compared to warm conditions, which would be 100%. Warm is the base number of events in the sim, which means the number of events the sim generates per quarter is multiplied by 1.00 (the other multipliers are Muddy = 0.65, Rainy = 0.85, Cloudy = 1.15, and Fine = 1.25). The Swamprats and Bombers were closest to even, but the league as a whole had more poor condition games than good.

In the extreme example what that means for an individual player is roughly over the course of a season a midfielder averaging 78.0 DT at the Warriors would have averaged 67.4 DT at the Furies despite them having similar outcomes within their own games. The former DT average puts you front and centre for an All SFA nod, the latter consigns you to the also rans.

So essentially, what you’re saying is that when I win the Mobbs Medal it will forever have an asterisk next to it because I played in just beautiful conditions all season?

 

[Barrybran]

So essentially, what you’re saying is that when I win the Mobbs Medal it will forever have an asterisk next to it because I played in just beautiful conditions all season?

Yes but so will all the other Mobbs winners

 

[Genghis Tron]

What does all this mean for ME though?

 

[Barrybran]

What does all this mean for ME though?

Well I've got you on a HBF which means serial_thrilla can occupy a back pocket this time

 

[Genghis Tron]

Well I've got you on a HBF which means serial_thrilla can occupy a back pocket this time

Faultless work yet again Baz.

 

[The Half Back]

Yes but so will all the other Mobbs winners

I’m okay with that outcome.

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

Here's the numbers for S30:

View attachment 1118976

They're compared to warm conditions, which would be 100%. Warm is the base number of events in the sim, which means the number of events the sim generates per quarter is multiplied by 1.00 (the other multipliers are Muddy = 0.65, Rainy = 0.85, Cloudy = 1.15, and Fine = 1.25). The Swamprats and Bombers were closest to even, but the league as a whole had more poor condition games than good.

In the extreme example what that means for an individual player is roughly over the course of a season a midfielder averaging 78.0 DT at the Warriors would have averaged 67.4 DT at the Furies despite them having similar outcomes within their own games. The former DT average puts you front and centre for an All SFA nod, the latter consigns you to the also rans.

 

[Agent93]

So essentially, what you’re saying is that when I win the Mobbs Medal it will forever have an asterisk next to it because I played in just beautiful conditions all season?

AHAHHAHAHHAHA

You don't play for the Swamprats buddy.

But on that, no. Mobbs votes are agnostic to conditions. Within your match if you're the best RR or Ro, or if you've kicked 6+ goals, you get votes. You can be BOG RR with 16 touches and 8 tackles in muddy conditions and get the same 3 votes as if you were BOG RR in cloudy conditions and racked up 35 touches and 16 tackles.

 

[Barrybran]

Baz Stats All-SFA Team - Round 13

B: RelaxMax (CIW) - NaturalDisaster (CIW) - jackster83 (SCS)
HB: omgfridge (GUM) - MWPP (LVB) - Genghis Tron (GUM)
C: Tonga Bob (CIW) - kdavva74 (CIW) - por_please_ya (ESH)
HF: sausageroll (MBD) - cooney (MBD) - TJASTA (FUR)
F: Bonz (DRA) - Metalcrusher (LVB) - PhenomenalV1 (ESH)
FOLL: Muddiemoose (LVB) - The Half Back (CIW) - TheInjuryFactory (CIW)

INT: pantskyle (MBD) - guero (LVB)


Changes:

Barrybran -> INT to OUT
Bonz -> OUT to FP
cooney -> OUT to CHF
DemonJim -> C to OUT
eth-dog -> OUT to BP
GremioPower -> HFF to OUT
guero -> W to INT
jackster83 -> BP to OUT
kdavva74 -> OUT to C
pantskyle -> OUT to INT
por_please_ya -> OUT to W
Proper Gander -> FP to OUT
SarahSmiles -> CHF to OUT
Supersuns -> INT to OUT
TJASTA -> OUT to HFF
Tonga Bob -> OUT to W
tony -> W to OUT

​

(averages per game except wins and Z-score)

PLAYER	TEAM	HO	K	M	H	T	FF	FA	G	B	DT	EXIE	ADT	WIN​	Z​
RelaxMax	CIW	-	7	5	8	1	-	1	-	-	51	62	51	7​	3.20​
NaturalDisaster	CIW	-	6	4	6	1	-	1	-	-	42	52	44	7​	6.87​
jackster83	SCS	1	6	4	7	1	-	-	-	-	48	58	49	9​	2.38​
omgfridge	GUM	-	6	5	9	1	-	1	-	-	50	62	50	6​	1.18​
MWPP	LVB	-	7	5	8	1	1	1	-	-	54	66	54	7​	5.21​
Genghis Tron	GUM	-	6	5	6	1	-	1	-	-	49	62	48	6​	0.20​
Tonga Bob	CIW	-	12	6	12	1	1	1	-	1	81	96	81	8​	5.70​
kdavva74	CIW	-	11	5	9	1	1	1	1	1	74	88	75	7​	2.63​
por_please_ya	ESH	-	11	5	11	1	1	1	1	1	77	92	79	10​	3.99​
sausageroll	MBD	-	8	6	7	1	1	1	1	1	66	82	68	9​	7.50​
cooney	MBD	-	7	4	6	1	-	1	1	1	53	66	54	7​	2.02​
TJASTA	FUR	-	7	3	5	1	-	-	1	1	52	62	52	5​	1.16​
Bonz	DRA	-	6	1	-	1	1	-	4	2	52	64	53	8​	2.78​
Metalcrusher	LVB	-	7	1	1	1	1	1	4	2	55	67	56	9​	4.50​
PhenomenalV1	ESH	-	6	1	2	-	-	-	3	1	43	52	44	6​	4.66​
Muddiemoose	LVB	13	12	-	10	3	1	1	1	1	90	98	91	9​	8.92​
The Half Back	CIW	-	12	-	10	7	3	1	1	1	90	102	90	7​	7.21​
TheInjuryFactory	CIW	-	10	-	9	7	3	1	1	-	81	94	82	7​	5.50​
pantskyle	MBD	-	10	-	10	6	3	1	1	1	83	95	83	9​	3.90​
guero	LVB	-	12	6	11	2	1	1	-	-	81	97	83	9​	6.60​

ADT - Adjusted Dream Team
WIN - Matchups won
Z - Cumulative Z-score (the higher, the better; zero is average)

 

[TJASTA]

* up baz

 

[cooney]

Nice I like it

 

[Agent93]

Baz Stats All-SFA Team - Round 13

B: @RelaxMax (CIW) - @NaturalDisaster (CIW) - @jackster83 (SCS)


Changes:
eth-dog -> OUT to BP
jackster83 -> BP to OUT

Baz going for a couple weeks suspension here.

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

Baz going for a couple weeks suspension here.

The Teamsheet Sheriff™ always gets his man

 

[Genghis Tron]

Baz Stats All-SFA Team - Round 13

B: RelaxMax (CIW) - NaturalDisaster (CIW) - jackster83 (SCS)
HB: omgfridge (GUM) - MWPP (LVB) - Genghis Tron (GUM)
C: Tonga Bob (CIW) - kdavva74 (CIW) - por_please_ya (ESH)
HF: sausageroll (MBD) - cooney (MBD) - TJASTA (FUR)
F: Bonz (DRA) - Metalcrusher (LVB) - PhenomenalV1 (ESH)
FOLL: Muddiemoose (LVB) - The Half Back (CIW) - TheInjuryFactory (CIW)

INT: pantskyle (MBD) - guero (LVB)


Changes:

Barrybran -> INT to OUT
Bonz -> OUT to FP
cooney -> OUT to CHF
DemonJim -> C to OUT
eth-dog -> OUT to BP
GremioPower -> HFF to OUT
guero -> W to INT
jackster83 -> BP to OUT
kdavva74 -> OUT to C
pantskyle -> OUT to INT
por_please_ya -> OUT to W
Proper Gander -> FP to OUT
SarahSmiles -> CHF to OUT
Supersuns -> INT to OUT
TJASTA -> OUT to HFF
Tonga Bob -> OUT to W
tony -> W to OUT

​

(averages per game except wins and Z-score)

PLAYER	TEAM	HO	K	M	H	T	FF	FA	G	B	DT	EXIE	ADT	WIN​	Z​
RelaxMax	CIW	-	7	5	8	1	-	1	-	-	51	62	51	7​	3.20​
NaturalDisaster	CIW	-	6	4	6	1	-	1	-	-	42	52	44	7​	6.87​
jackster83	SCS	1	6	4	7	1	-	-	-	-	48	58	49	9​	2.38​
omgfridge	GUM	-	6	5	9	1	-	1	-	-	50	62	50	6​	1.18​
MWPP	LVB	-	7	5	8	1	1	1	-	-	54	66	54	7​	5.21​
Genghis Tron	GUM	-	6	5	6	1	-	1	-	-	49	62	48	6​	0.20​
Tonga Bob	CIW	-	12	6	12	1	1	1	-	1	81	96	81	8​	5.70​
kdavva74	CIW	-	11	5	9	1	1	1	1	1	74	88	75	7​	2.63​
por_please_ya	ESH	-	11	5	11	1	1	1	1	1	77	92	79	10​	3.99​
sausageroll	MBD	-	8	6	7	1	1	1	1	1	66	82	68	9​	7.50​
cooney	MBD	-	7	4	6	1	-	1	1	1	53	66	54	7​	2.02​
TJASTA	FUR	-	7	3	5	1	-	-	1	1	52	62	52	5​	1.16​
Bonz	DRA	-	6	1	-	1	1	-	4	2	52	64	53	8​	2.78​
Metalcrusher	LVB	-	7	1	1	1	1	1	4	2	55	67	56	9​	4.50​
PhenomenalV1	ESH	-	6	1	2	-	-	-	3	1	43	52	44	6​	4.66​
Muddiemoose	LVB	13	12	-	10	3	1	1	1	1	90	98	91	9​	8.92​
The Half Back	CIW	-	12	-	10	7	3	1	1	1	90	102	90	7​	7.21​
TheInjuryFactory	CIW	-	10	-	9	7	3	1	1	-	81	94	82	7​	5.50​
pantskyle	MBD	-	10	-	10	6	3	1	1	1	83	95	83	9​	3.90​
guero	LVB	-	12	6	11	2	1	1	-	-	81	97	83	9​	6.60​

ADT - Adjusted Dream Team
WIN - Matchups won
Z - Cumulative Z-score (the higher, the better; zero is average)

I hate to say this, but how on earth did I make the team with a Z score of 0.20. Sante a bit hard done by there.

 

[Barrybran]

I hate to say this, but how on earth did I make the team with a Z score of 0.20. Sante a bit hard done by there.

I've factored in a posting element

 

[Genghis Tron]

I've factored in a posting element

Controversial.