Analysis Best Young Key-Forward in the Competition

[Orange crush]

You had to pick one player now for a team.
A young Daniher, Darcy, Thilthorpe or Hogan, who are going with?

Hogan all day

 

[Mr Meow]

You had to pick one player now for a team.
A young Daniher, Darcy, Thilthorpe or Hogan, who are going with?

Whoever has the best development programme and leadership at their club. All extremely talented footballers

Your "we haven't seen a bunch of talented young key forwards like this in a while" argument is something I don't agree with.

 

[Sphynx]

RT does it almost every game. His ability to deliver the ball to a leading forward is one of his strong points.

In his draft year there was talk about him being used on the wing, as his speed and delivery for a guy his size is almost unheard of.

It isnt a one horse race, and RT is right up there with Darcy. It's great to see an era where we have so many good young tall forwards hitting the comp. It's been a while since we had that.

It's definitely a one horse race.

Darcy still has a good 30% improvement in his body and Thilthorpe is probably at the finished article these days.

Darcy is already better, much better. That will not change in the future.

There is not a better game breaking forward in the comp at the moment, that can simply destroy an opponent 1 on 1 at any time, even without decent delivery. Already double team strategies for him.

And I'm a huge fan of Thilthorpe, he should be in a North jumper if not for the NGA loopholes.

Both will be stars, but it's a bit like Franklin vs Kennedy or Carey vs someone like Chris Grant.

And I think Franklin had a lot of limitations in comparison to Darcy. I think Darcy scopes as a far more ominous prospect as even Franklin did at this age.

He's probably in the young Carey or Lockett classification in all honesty and I certainly don't say that lightly.

One is clearly two or three levels above the other just on unique, generational, athletic grounds.


You can compare all the stats you like for Thilthorpe or Amiss vs him at the moment, it's a little bit like people bringing up stats on Franklin vs Carey.

 

[Mr Meow]

He wasted his entire career. Potential is one thing, performing is another. Character is just as genetic a trait as being able to mark the ball and kick straight.

There's been plenty of players that have elite talent but never applied themselves, or got careers ruined by injuries, and they all end up forgotten about and never spoken of when the greats are talked about.

The argument was "good young key forwards coming through", not a retrospective analysis of career output. The latter makes no sense unless you somehow know exactly what career outputs the players in this thread will have.

 

[Sphynx]

You had to pick one player now for a team.
A young Daniher, Darcy, Thilthorpe or Hogan, who are going with?

Which Thilthorpe and which Hogan? Hogan in his first year or two at Melbourne and Thilthorpe in his first two years or this Thilthorpe or Fremantle Hogan?

Darcy

daylight
daylight

even more daylight

Current Thilthorpe
Melbourne Hogan
Essendon Danniher
Yr 1 and 2 Thilthorpe
Fremantle Hogan

 

[Bald]

Champion Data have RT and SD as the number one and two rated players in the game since Round 21 last year.

I haven't given RT enough credit (not that I take CD overly seriously), but props.

 

[Cleric]

Which Thilthorpe and which Hogan? Hogan in his first year or two at Melbourne and Thilthorpe in his first two years or this Thilthorpe or Fremantle Hogan?

Darcy

daylight
daylight

even more daylight

Current Thilthorpe
Melbourne Hogan
Essendon Danniher
Yr 1 and 2 Thilthorpe
Fremantle Hogan

The Hogan and Danihers that we got in their careers, vs what you think both Darcy and Thilthorpe will be, and have been so far.
For me it's
Darcy and Thilthorpe before either of Hogan or Daniher.

 

[Cleric]

Champion Data have RT and SD as the number one and two rated players in the game since Round 21 last year.

I haven't given RT enough credit (not that I take CD overly seriously), but props.

Both teams supporters have a great 10 years ahead if both stay healthy

 

[Sphynx]

Champion Data have RT and SD as the number one and two rated players in the game since Round 21 last year.

I haven't given RT enough credit (not that I take CD overly seriously), but props.

Both are absolute guns.

I think the weekend gone was probably a good example.

Did he rip North to pieces? No.

He had 1 or 2 moments like most gun forwards, got involved throughout the game in transition etc. It's a sign of a very good player that doesn't need to have earth shattering games to stack the stat sheet.

That's a sign of a good player. Was he BOG? I didn't think anywhere near it personally. Yet he was listed as such.


Darcy has taken the piss by comparison the last 2 weeks for the same average ratings.

 

[Sphynx]

The Hogan and Danihers that we got in their careers, vs what you think both Darcy and Thilthorpe will be, and have been so far.
For me it's
Darcy and Thilthorpe before either of Hogan or Daniher.

Well current Darcy and current Thilthorpe are better than either of the Hogan or Danniher we have gotten in their careers, they don't even need to be in the discussion tbh....

Hogan had a fantastic year last year, but was it earth shattering? No, the remainder of his career has been a smattering of his undeniable potential and disappointment. Even if he continues on from last year you are looking at a Jarryd Roughead or Travis Cloke style career (outside of the success)

Danniher? He had 1 excellent year, plenty of injuries and was almost a system/role player within Brisbane. He was really promising early days at Essendon, which is where I thought you were going. If you are talking careers, he will belong nowhere near Darcy, unless Darcy somehow misses the next 4-5 years through injury.

I think someone like Jeremy Cameron is a much better person to put in these analogies. Asking if you would prefer a 23 year old Thilthorpe or Jeremy Cameron is up for debate.

Nick Riewoldt, J.Kennedy and Tom Hawkins the others. Potentially even Pavlich and J.Brown

Darcy vs Hawkins vs Thilthorpe vs Cameron vs N.Riewoldt vs Pavlich vs J.Brown vs Kennedy is a much different discussion.

Hogan and Danniher belong anywhere near those names. You can have those sorts of discussions with the Clokes, Rougheads, J.Reiwoldts, Fev, Tex Walker, Curnow's of the game.


Obviously given I'm listing them with some of the best of the modern era, shows how highly I rate both atm.

 

[Mr Meow]

The Hogan and Danihers that we got in their careers, vs what you think both Darcy and Thilthorpe will be, and have been so far.
For me it's
Darcy and Thilthorpe before either of Hogan or Daniher.

Now do Franklin, Pavlich, N.Riewoldt, J.Riewoldt, Kennedy, Hawkins, Walker and Cameron.

Which ones will Thilthorpe go past?

 

[RAPPA]

Now do Franklin, Pavlich, N.Riewoldt, J.Riewoldt, Kennedy, Hawkins, Walker and Cameron.

Which ones will Thilthorpe go past?

What do you mean “go past”? RT has already passed them. They’re also removing the Leigh Matthews statue and putting in a Thilthorpe statue.

 

[Cleric]

Now do Franklin, Pavlich, N.Riewoldt, J.Riewoldt, Kennedy, Hawkins, Walker and Cameron.

Which ones will Thilthorpe go past?

I don't know if he will go past any of them, but I'm not sure Darcy will either.
Those are some of the greats of the game, so it would be silly to try and equate RT to where he will finish vs them.
That doesn't stop the fact that he is a generational talent, who could be anything.

 

[Mr Meow]

I don't know if he will go past any of them, but I'm not sure Darcy will either.
Those are some of the greats of the game, so it would be silly to try and equate RT to where he will finish vs them.
That doesn't stop the fact that he is a generational talent, who could be anything.

Cop out.

"Could be anything....well, better than Hogan and Daniher" doesn't have the same ring to it, I guess.

Those are 8 (mostly) very recent key forwards. Pav and Roo a bit further back in the timeline, but still giants of the 21st century thus far.

 

[Sphynx]

I don't know if he will go past any of them, but I'm not sure Darcy will either.
Those are some of the greats of the game, so it would be silly to try and equate RT to where he will finish vs them.
That doesn't stop the fact that he is a generational talent, who could be anything.

It's only my personal opinion.

But I'd take 21 year old Darcy ahead of pretty much all of them.

I don't think I've seen as dominant a 21/22 year old since Carey...who was North's captain in a prelim contender and the AA Captain at 21. Prior to that it was Lockett, or maybe Longmire given Longmire was a Coleman contender at 19 against Lockett, Dunstall and Ablett before blowing his knees out. Before that, it's probably Salmon.

Franklin and N.Riewoldt were probably the only ones on Darcy's level in year 3/4. Determining Darcy's ceiling vs Franklin's is probably down to how much you value Franklins unique mobility vs Darcy's size, agility and marking ability.

J.Brown was in a very good team, but a little overrated at that age imo.

Hawkins developed at around this point, but had criticisms in his first few seasons.

Kennedy had only just joined West Coast and was a bit of a slow burn at the very beginning.

Walker was good, but not the same class.

Cameron probably next best to Franklin and N.Riewoldt at this age, but probably developed into a Buddy-lite without the same ceiling.

Pavlich didn't become a gun forward until about his 6th/7th season.


When you factor this in and his ceiling being arguably higher than all of them because of his physical attributes....

I think the most athletically gifted (that have most of the rest of the package) key forwards I've ever seen in my lifetime on the eye test are Lance Franklin, Wayne Carey (pre-injuries he moved like peak Nat Fyfe), Tony Lockett (basically our version of a young Shaq), Fraser Gherig and Sam Darcy.

 

[Cleric]

Cop out.

"Could be anything....well, better than Hogan and Daniher" doesn't have the same ring to it, I guess.

Those are 8 (mostly) very recent key forwards. Pav and Roo a bit further back in the timeline, but still giants of the 21st century thus far.

How is Harley Reid going to end up in his career vs Dangerfield, Voss, Bont, Buckley and Judd?
To say you don't know if he will be as good as them is what we call, being honest. Making a call either way is only been done with a guess and nothing more.
That doesn't mean that Reid isn't a super talent who could be as good at the end of his career.
That's hardly the gotcha you think it is.

 

[Cleric]

It's only my personal opinion.

But I'd take 21 year old Darcy ahead of pretty much all of them.

I don't think I've seen as dominant a 21/22 year old since Carey...who was North's captain in a prelim contender and the AA Captain at 21. Prior to that it was Lockett, or maybe Longmire given Longmire was a Coleman contender at 19 against Lockett, Dunstall and Ablett before blowing his knees out. Before that, it's probably Salmon.

Franklin and N.Riewoldt were probably the only ones on Darcy's level in year 3/4.

J.Brown was in a very good team, but a little overrated at that age imo.

Hawkins developed at around this point, but had criticisms in his first few seasons.

Kennedy had only just joined West Coast and was a bit of a slow burn at the very beginning.

Walker was good, but not the same class.

Cameron probably next best to Franklin and N.Riewoldt at this age, but probably developed into a Buddy-lite without the same ceiling.

Pavlich didn't become a gun forward until about his 6th/7th season.


When you factor this in and his ceiling being arguably higher than all of them because of his physical attributes....

You are right, it's your personal opinion, but it's just an opinion. We won't know the reality of it until all is said and done.
I'm not willing to go out on a limb and take a guess.
As for him being the most dominat young forward since Carey, I'm not sure where that would come from.
If you are looking at stats, then he is neck and neck with RT, and if you are looking at player ratings he is also neck and neck with RT. He isn't ahead in anything yet.
You also have to be aware of fools gold.
I remember the consensus that Eric Hipwood was going to be the most dominate forward during his early career, and he has turned out to be stink average.

 

[Mr Meow]

How is Harley Reid going to end up in his career vs Dangerfield, Voss, Bont, Buckley and Judd?
To say you don't know if he will be as good as them is what we call, being honest. Making a call either way is only been done with a guess and nothing more.
That doesn't mean that Reid isn't a super talent who could be as good at the end of his career.
That's hardly the gotcha you think it is.

If you can speculate he'll surpass Hogan and Daniher, you have shown you are willing to put some kind of projection together. Why would it change when we bring in some higher calibre modern forwards?

Its not a binding contract. I'm just interested in what you see this generational talent reaching over the next decade.

 

[Cleric]

If you can speculate he'll surpass Hogan and Daniher, you have shown you are willing to put some kind of projection together.

Its not a binding contract. I'm just interested in what you see this generational talent reaching over the next decade.

If he doesn't get injured, I fully expect him to have a far better career than either of those two.
It's a different matter when you are comparing him to some of the greats of the game. If he has a career that sits somewhere between Hawkins and Franklin, I wouldn't be surprised, and I would expect him to be around that mark, if he stays healthy.
I'm not going to say he is better than Franklin or Nick Riewoldt, or even as good. That's a tall ask.
But again, as it stands he is one of the best young forward talents we have seen in a number of years.

 

[Sphynx]

You are right, it's your personal opinion, but it's just an opinion. We won't know the reality of it until all is said and done.
I'm not willing to go out on a limb and take a guess.
As for him being the most dominat young forward since Carey, I'm not sure where that would come from.
If you are looking at stats, then he is neck and neck with RT, and if you are looking at player ratings he is also neck and neck with RT. He isn't ahead in anything yet.
You also have to be aware of fools gold.
I remember the consensus that Eric Hipwood was going to be the most dominate forward during his early career, and he has turned out to be stink average.

Fools gold for a 210cm key forward no defender can realistically legally defend if the ball is at his advantage, outrageous skills for his size, agility, speed, and generational contested marking?

What are we talking about here?

He's been one of the best players in the comp for the last 10-15 games since his 20th game?


Again, statistically you can make most arguments regarding a position like key forward, it's majorly skewed by coaching systems, team performance, his role rucking/forward etc. You can statistically argue that Jeremy Cameron is almost as good as Wayne Carey. He wasn't close to the same universe as a player.


I've watched enough football to know what I'm looking at and form my own opinion.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Both are absolute guns.

I think the weekend gone was probably a good example.

Did he rip North to pieces? No.

He had 1 or 2 moments like most gun forwards, got involved throughout the game in transition etc. It's a sign of a very good player that doesn't need to have earth shattering games to stack the stat sheet.

That's a sign of a good player. Was he BOG? I didn't think anywhere near it personally. Yet he was listed as such.


Darcy has taken the piss by comparison the last 2 weeks for the same average ratings.

I think if you’re looking at clear eye-catching, dynamic traits between the two, it’s pretty clear Darcy’s contested marking is number 1 on that list, especially as he’s so impactful around the ground using his mitts

That’s not to say RT isn’t a very good contested mark himself, but it’s just that Darcy’s already a literal all-timer in that regard

I’d still put RT’s field disposal ahead of Darcy’s (not by a whole lot, though). More I50’s a game going at a higher disposal efficiency. His vision and skill is as impressive for someone of his height and bulk as I’ve ever seen. Maybe a less noticeable trait on the eye test, when it comes to determining impact?

 

[Sphynx]

I think if you’re looking at clear eye-catching, dynamic traits between the two, it’s pretty clear Darcy’s contested marking is number 1 on that list, especially as he’s so impactful around the ground using his mitts

That’s not to say RT isn’t a very good contested mark himself, but it’s just that Darcy’s already a literal all-timer in that regard

I’d still put RT’s field disposal ahead of Darcy’s (not by a whole lot, though). More I50’s a game going at a higher disposal efficiency. His vision and skill is as impressive for someone of his height and bulk as I’ve ever seen. Maybe a less noticeable trait on the eye test, when it comes to determining impact?

No, I agree, RT is excellent for his size. Was evident on the weekend also in transition working into the F50.

Great kick for goal also.

 

[Purple Suit]

Not entirely sure what you’re suggesting here?

I’m just suggesting that the other two of Naughton & JUH would have been considered the best young KPF in the league at some stage and neither have come on completely for various reasons.

Darcy is looking promising now but it seems like modern footy has made it harder for KPF’s to dominate like they use to.

 

[WilloTree]

Hogan all day

Always had the talent, bu young Hogan was a mess.

 

[Orange crush]

Always had the talent, bu young Hogan was a mess.

Hogan was a mess for about 3 years …. Which happened to start the year before he moved to Freo