Analysis Best Young Key-Forward in the Competition

[go_the_dockers]

no, weighted average works against him.

This is pretty simple if you understand how averages work.

All players, especially key forwards don't play at their best form in their first 2 seasons. This is also true for Darcy and Thilthorpe.

Thilthorpe has played 45% of his total games in his first 2 seasons.

For Darcy it's only 22%. It's fairly likely that Darcy's career averages would be lower if he had played more games in his first 2 seasons.

So many things come into it.

Crows had Walker, so Thilthorpe got a lesser defender.
Buldogs have Naughton and co, so Darcy can get the 3rd defender.

Treacy is actually a bit lucky he plays higher up the ground, as Amiss gets the number 1 defender most of the game.

The other thing of course is playing in a good side helps a lot.

Treacy, Darcy and Thilthorpe all look really good. Not many other players are at that level.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

So many things come into it.

Crows had Walker, so Thilthorpe got a lesser defender.
Buldogs have Naughton and co, so Darcy can get the 3rd defender.

Treacy is actually a bit lucky he plays higher up the ground, as Amiss gets the number 1 defender most of the game.

The other thing of course is playing in a good side helps a lot.

Treacy, Darcy and Thilthorpe all look really good. Not many other players are at that level.

You would be happy to have any of these 3 players as they look like they are all going to be great long term.

Also, all 3 sides have decent 2nd tall forwards.

Crows have 4 key forwards options at the moment which is making for fun times.

 

[SammyRoo]

Darcy

Daylight 2nd

 

[gungho]

Darcy

Daylight 2nd

Watch Dockers games. Josh Treacy is a freak, and not just because of goals kicked.

 

[SammyRoo]

Watch Dockers games. Josh Treacy is a freak, and not just because of goals kicked.

Ok. Updated below

Darcy ….

ThenDaylight ….

Then maybe Treacy

 

[WillHayward]

Darcy

Daylight 2nd

Vic bias at work here
Darcy is a freak but not right to underestimate Treacy and Thilthorpe.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

The ultimate test for these young men is when they come up against Weitering and Taylor. Adelaide will probably flog us but if we can keep it a bit of a scrap in a few weeks time we'll likely get to see Thilthorpe in a few wrestles with the big Weiterbot. Darcy wasn't able to get on top of him but was still hugely influential when he went into the ruck and up the ground a bit more. Signs of a genuine star in the making.

Not sure if Thilthorpe's got that in him but he's certainly a bit stronger in the wrestle than Darcy at this stage so it will be interesting to see how he goes against those two.

 

[craffles]

Mods - Can this thread just be renamed “Adelaide fans jizzing over Thilthorpe and stinking it up whenever anyone disagrees.”

Thanks.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Mods - Can this thread just be renamed “Dogs fans jizzing over Darcy and stinking it up whenever anyone disagrees.”

Thanks.

Agreed

 

[TruRoo]

Morris is listed at 191 cm, Thilthorpe at 200 cm.

I would say that Riley is more agile than Sam.

Darcy is now 208cm - nearly as big a gap as between Morris and Thilthorpe - according to some reports (listed at 205 though so there's always question marks).

Watching our game Sunday vs Darcy on Friday v Carlton and I don't think there's much difference between them agility wise. Just Darcy's taller again.

 

[T2B_]

Mods - Can this thread just be renamed “Adelaide fans jizzing over Thilthorpe and stinking it up whenever anyone disagrees.”

Thanks.

You noticed that too huh.

Its like yeah the dude is good, but Crows fans act like someone shot him every time someone dares to rate Darcy higher

 

[Golumless]

You noticed that too huh.

Its like yeah the dude is good, but Crows fans act like someone shot him every time someone dares to rate Darcy higher

Just trying to help the plebs who don't get football.

 

[Cleric]

You noticed that too huh.

Its like yeah the dude is good, but Crows fans act like someone shot him every time someone dares to rate Darcy higher

God forbid Crows supporters who sees more of him come into a thread where he is one of the best young forwards to talk about him.
Even worse they put forward his attributes when talking about why they think he is up there.
What you really meant to say was "can the Adelaide people not comment so that we can all talk about how Sam Darcy is the best"

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

If Jamarra was actually playing it’d probably be him. He had three less shots than the Coleman winner last year.

So it’s Sam Darcy.

I find it strange that people for some reason don't value goal kicking when rating the guys whose job it is to kick goals.

Its not like kicking accurately for goal is just a side hustle for key forwards.

 

[Bald]

I find it strange that people for some reason don't value goal kicking when rating the guys whose job it is to kick goals.

Its not like kicking accurately for goal is just a side hustle for key forwards.

I do value goal kicking accuracy for sure - I just think that comes with practice and probably more in Jamarras case, fitness. There have been key forwards over the journey that lack either the intensity required, or forward craft to generate the shots and that's something that's rarely able to be fixed.

Even if we're talking the goals that Jamarra kicked I believe it puts him either on par or ahead of all of the others for his age group.

It's not too dissimilar to Nick Watson, a lot were taking the piss out of him early on last year for not converting his opportunities, but to be able to generate as many scoring opportunities as he can suggested early on he was going to be a very good player, which is really starting to show.

 

[rapidfire7]

Shannon Neale is developing well he is a chance to be top 5 of this group by the end of the year.

I like your optimism. However, I see who a guy who I'm not sure will make it

 

[Golumless]

I find it strange that people for some reason don't value goal kicking when rating the guys whose job it is to kick goals.

Its not like kicking accurately for goal is just a side hustle for key forwards.

Generating shots is most of the battle. It is very hard to be a gun forward when you only generate two shots a game. It's a whole lot easier if you're at 4-5 shots.

There are some fantastic shots at goal, such as Fogarty (though he's improved at that aspect recently) and Marshall who have been held back by that.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

maybe in his first couple of seasons, when he only played 7 games.

Darcy was getting way more attention from his teammates last year than Thilthorpe was in his 3rd season.

Thilthorpe also played a lot more games in his first 2 season, which tips the scales against him, unfairly imo.

So we can use stats except we need to make allowances for whatever doesn't make my player look best.

If I can't do it with stats I will use my view.

Like Thilthorpe is more agile than Darcy - Even if every commentator is amazed at the agility of Darcy

Like Thilthorpe is a better ball user despite every commentator being amazed at the ability of Darcy to deliver the ball.

 

[Danger in Texas]

So we can use stats except we need to make allowances for whatever doesn't make my player look best.

If I can't do it with stats I will use my view.

Like Thilthorpe is more agile than Darcy - Even if every commentator is amazed at the agility of Darcy

Like Thilthorpe is a better ball user despite every commentator being amazed at the ability of Darcy to deliver the ball.

I mean, Healy said RT was one of the most extraordinarily skilled big men he’s ever seen over the weekend. Still averaging more I50s per game and going at a much higher disposal efficiency

Darcy is more promising, but the difference ain’t ‘daylight’

 

[WilloTree]

Josh Treacy has entered the chat

 

[Danger in Texas]

Mods - Can this thread just be renamed “Adelaide fans jizzing over Thilthorpe and stinking it up whenever anyone disagrees.”

Thanks.

Apologies, my liege

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Generating shots is most of the battle. It is very hard to be a gun forward when you only generate two shots a game. It's a whole lot easier if you're at 4-5 shots.

There are some fantastic shots at goal, such as Fogarty (though he's improved at that aspect recently) and Marshall who have been held back by that.

Huh??

Who cares if a bloke has 4 shots but only converts 1 of them?

 

[Cleric]

So we can use stats except we need to make allowances for whatever doesn't make my player look best.

If I can't do it with stats I will use my view.

Like Thilthorpe is more agile than Darcy - Even if every commentator is amazed at the agility of Darcy

Like Thilthorpe is a better ball user despite every commentator being amazed at the ability of Darcy to deliver the ball.

Two things can be true at the same thing. Darcy can have great athleticism and disposal, and RT can be more.
Juat because player A is quicker than player B, doesn't mean player B isn't also quick.

I would say that Darcy being taller has some effect on him being less agile than RT, but him being taller also means he can take a mark at a higher point than RT can.
The fact that Darcy would most likely out mark RT one on one, doesn't mean RT isn't a contested marking beast.

 

[Golumless]

Huh??

Who cares if a bloke has 4 shots but only converts 1 of them?

The thing is most key forwards are not 25% accurate over a season, the bad ones are 40-45%. The great shots are typically 60-70%. Most sit in the 50-60% range (just flicking through goal accuracy on stat pro for a couple of recent years).

That's where shots at goal comes in and where great shots who don't generate shot opportunities struggle. 4 shots at 40% is 1.6 goals. 2 shots at 70% is 1.4 goals. Even the bad shots have days where they're on.

So we can use stats except we need to make allowances for whatever doesn't make my player look best.

If I can't do it with stats I will use my view.

Like Thilthorpe is more agile than Darcy - Even if every commentator is amazed at the agility of Darcy

Like Thilthorpe is a better ball user despite every commentator being amazed at the ability of Darcy to deliver the ball.

When you're above 200 cm, commentators are usually amazed when you're not an uncoordinated basketcase of a footballer.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

I mean, Healy said RT was one of the most extraordinarily skilled big men he’s ever seen over the weekend. Still averaging more I50s per game and going at a much higher disposal efficiency

Darcy is more promising, but the difference ain’t ‘daylight’

I haven't said anything against Thilthorpe at all.

I am just bemused by suggestions that either is better than the other at certain points, particularly at suggestions of better ball use.

My observation of Sam Darcy is that he is actually one of the better ball users to come into the game.

It is pretty rare to see any player able to turn and deliver on either foot of one step. I haven't observed Thilthorpe do that and he may be able to do so.