Bigfooty Official Phantom Draft - recruiter notes

[manicpie]

Apologies for not being clear - by key forward I meant "main avenue to goal" rather than "key position forward" - I'd left out the "position" there deliberately but I can see it's probably still a bit unclear.

Sokol does appear to function as a forward by running all day, but that is against relatively weak WAFL standard opposition and he won't have anywhere near as much luck working over AFL standard backmen who can also run all day - I can see him possibly struggling to gain separation on his opponent a lot of the time if he doesn't have speed and isn't overly agile as KM noted.

I also don't think his marking and goal kicking stats prior to those last 7 games look all that elite for a state league footballer playing WAFL - off the top of my head 1.5-2 goals and 7 marks a game doesn't really jump off the page in terms of a state league footballer automatically being able to have a similar impact at AFL level (where literally everything in his game will be harder for him to execute against much, much stronger competition).

The point about the WAFL not really looking as strong as it has in previous years still stands though - Subiaco basically mauled the rest of the league in 2019.

I'm not really for or against him for the record, more playing devil's advocate as he's just a really hard one to peg in terms of how to interpret that run of 6-7 games, versus his output earlier in the season and across the rest of his career to this point.

We seem to have plenty of small and medium defenders on our list but no medium forwards in reserve. Daicos and Broomhead don't seem to be able to play that half forward role whereas Sokol could easily play the role if we have a few injuries to our forward half, well worth a late pick

 

[Apex36]

Sokol doesn't play key forward, he plays HFF, and going by your stats his marking and goal kicking is elite, Sokol works his opponents over by running them ragged. He would an outstanding player to have on the list and would be ready to go round 1, for a late pick or rookie we could do a lot worse

His fitness/athleticism and endurance are meant to be the knocks on him. I find it difficult to believe he’s ‘running his opponents ragged’...

 

[manicpie]

His fitness/athleticism and endurance are meant to be the knocks on him. I find it difficult to believe he’s ‘running his opponents ragged’...

All things that can be improved if put on an AFL list

 

[Apex36]

All things that can be improved if put on an AFL list

Maybe, but they’re also things that can be exploited by AFL standard players.
Look, I’m not against him or anything, I’m more in the camp of how could anyone possibly say that a state league player who’s gone undrafted for 6 years possibly walk in and be better than a guy who kicked 40+ goals in the AFL in the previous year. It’s not something you’ve been saying obviously, but it’s KM’s thread, and it’s pretty much what he said. Fair to say I’m very skeptical of his assessment.

 

[sr36]

Thanks for the context

It certainly paints a different picture to the world beater that’s coming in and dislodging guys that have been locks in the 22 of a top 4 team 2 years running. If something sounds too good to be true it generally is!

Way undersized marking forward who ran 7.3 for 20 metre sprint - steer clear Pies.

 

[partypie]

What are your thoughts on Hamish Brayshaw Knightmare?

I've been a fan for a while now and he's been delisted by West Coast with a promise to rookie him if he makes it that far.

Potential young inside bull who has been tracking strongly in the WAFL but hasn't been able to crack into a healthy and strong West Coast midfield.

 

[Knightmare]

You seem to be very keen on Sokol despite his apparent athletic and physical deficiencies as an undersized key forward at AFL level (or at least that is how he has played at WAFL level).

I've had a bit of a poke around through his stats (or what stats I could find) but from what I can see Sokol hasn't had any real history of being the prolific goal kicker he has been more recently (although he does appear to have popped up with a bag every now and then across his career) or marking target before the last handful of games from the season just passed:

Last 7 games: 38 goals (5.4 per game) / 72 marks (10.3 per game)

Previous 13 games (2019): 22 goals (1.7 per game) / 94 marks (7.2 per game)

Previous 77 games (career): 143 goals (1.85 per game) / 481 marks (6.2 per game)

I'm also somewhat wary of those impressive last 7 games in a season where Subiaco basically dominated every other team in the competition - for the record the first 5 of those 7 games were against teams that finished 4th, 6th, 10th, 5th and 9th out if 10 (none with more than a 50-50 record for the season). The semi final and grand final were against the "next best" team in South Fremantle, but even against them Subiaco cruised to convincing wins in their last 3 meetings (including finals) after losing to them earlier in the season by 22 points (their only loss).

There's no doubt his more recent form and performance in the grand final have been impressive, but is that just a bit of a hot streak against seemingly inferior opposition (in light of Subiaco's season overall the assertion that the WAFL is stronger is at least somewhat questionable for 2019), or was it actually a sign of AFL level ability revealing itself pretty much out of nowhere?

i think there is some risk here considering the step up he would have to make against AFL-quality backmen (especially on the speed / endurance front where the majority of AFL backmen have good closing speed and can run all day) - at 24 he might be worth a late round flier (or a rookie draft pick) but I'd be worried that we might be picking up another strong state league footballer rather than someone who will have an almost immediate impact at AFL level as you are putting forward.

Sokol can't get it done against good opposition? Other than his 6 goals in the Grand Final + B.O.G honours if that isn't a big enough stage, he kicked a game high 4 goals v SANFL in the state game earlier this season.

If a high of 60 goals (higher than any of his peers in the WAFL/SANFL/VFL) isn't a good return in front of goal, with no games with less than 3 goals over his last 7 games I don't know what is.

I wouldn't say Sokol's play has been 'out of nowhere' by any standards. He kicked 43 goals and took 150 marks last year. 49 goals and 127 marks the season before that was also excellent.

I don't agree with your assertion that he has poor endurance either. He's not an athlete, and that's his weakness, but he is a very good endurance runner and is capable of covering a lot of ground. I find despite not being overly quick, he's quick of mind which allows for him to compensate for any athletic deficiencies and even if someone has him body on body or tries to spoil from behind, he's too strong of a mark and too smart with his body positioning to be stopped when the ball comes his way.

As per my original profile of Sokol. There isn't any particular 'yeah but' as I had with the other remaining picks. Let him play close to goal, let him play across half-forward and I'm seeing someone who can cause problems at AFL level next year if picked.

 

[Knightmare]

What are your thoughts on Hamish Brayshaw Knightmare?

I've been a fan for a while now and he's been delisted by West Coast with a promise to rookie him if he makes it that far.

Potential young inside bull who has been tracking strongly in the WAFL but hasn't been able to crack into a healthy and strong West Coast midfield.

Not someone I'd be making a play for. He's 21, 22 in Feb, and isn't AFL standard yet. For mine he's a good state leaguer, putting up good but not great numbers. He has good ball winning capabilities and is a good tackler, but I see others who are better.

As mids Harry Schoenberg and Ryan Byrnes with the first and second picks respectively would be a dream result and allow the club to regenerate the midfield in a hurry as two of this year's underappreciated mids who aren't getting nearly enough recognition by other recruiters.

 

[partypie]

Sokol can't get it done against good opposition? Other than his 6 goals in the Grand Final + B.O.G honours if that isn't a big enough stage, he kicked a game high 4 goals v SANFL in the state game earlier this season.

Subiaco won the grand final by 96 points - it was a cakewalk of the highest order. Context matters even in football sometimes.

Looking back at the season as a whole Subiaco mauled the rest of the league 17-1 record with a percentage of 186 in the regular season and two finals wins against the second placed team by 34 points (14.13 to 10.3) and 96 points (18.12 to 3.6) respectively. The next two best teams were 4 / 5 games and 50+% further adrift, followed by the remaining two finals teams who had a 50-50 record for the season.

It was a similar theme in both 2017 and 2018 (FWIW Subiaco have lost a grand total of three games in three years) and, except for a shock loss to to the Fremantle reserves in the 2017 Grand final when Subiaco had a bad day in front of goal kicking 7.10 (plus 4 rushed behinds) to 11.6, nobody in the WAFL has really even gotten close to them ove the past three seasons.

The WAFL has historically been a pretty strong league in general, but in recent times the competition for Subiaco has been sub-par any way you choose to look at it. Hence the "WAFL is a strong league" argument kind of goes out the window, as Subiaco have shown an almost country football league level of dominance over the rest of the competition over that span.

If a high of 60 goals (higher than any of his peers in the WAFL/SANFL/VFL) isn't a good return in front of goal, with no games with less than 3 goals over his last 7 games I don't know what is.

I wouldn't say Sokol's play has been 'out of nowhere' by any standards. He kicked 43 goals and took 150 marks last year. 49 goals and 127 marks the season before that was also excellent.

While I respect your opinion I have to disagree on that point - his 7 game purple patch averaging 5.4 goals and 10.2 marks a game was absolutely out of nowhere and, prior to that, he was headed for a fairly standard season tally of around the 2 goals / 7 marks per game mark. The quality of the opposition during that 7 game hot streak also needs to be taken into account - I've already touched on that in the previous reply.

In previous years he did bob up with bags every now and then over the previous couple of years and did put up ok tallies at WAFL level (2.15 goals / 7.5 marks per game in 2018, 2.3 goals / 6 marks per game in 2017), but that is a long way from the 5+ goals / 10+ marks per game he put up in the final 7 games of 2019.

I don't agree with your assertion that he has poor endurance either. He's not an athlete, and that's his weakness, but he is a very good endurance runner and is capable of covering a lot of ground. I find despite not being overly quick, he's quick of mind which allows for him to compensate for any athletic deficiencies and even if someone has him body on body or tries to spoil from behind, he's too strong of a mark and too smart with his body positioning to be stopped when the ball comes his way.

I never said he had poor endurance - I said that the level of endurance he displays at WAFL level would be pretty easily matched by the majority of backmen at AFL level (where basically every player in backlines is pretty much an endurance beast relative to the sort of defenders you see at state level). If you think he's going to be running AFL-level backmen into the ground on a consistent basis then I'm sorry but you're kidding yourself.

If he doesn't have that burst speed or evasiveness then I can potentially see him struggling against opponents who can match his endurance and have him covered in terms of closing speed and athleticism, if/when he does manage to sneak out on a lead (not to mention the much stronger team defensive structures he will be facing).

Maybe he does have just enough smarts to work a more athletically-gifted opponent over at a higher level, but can you rely on that sort of "maybe" when considering him as a draft selection, if he isn't really ticking the boxes on the X's and O's for a small or medium forward (usually those sort of smarts translate well when coupled with speed and agility as a real point of difference - ie. the two Camerons / Ryan / Rioli).

As per my original profile of Sokol. There isn't any particular 'yeah but' as I had with the other remaining picks. Let him play close to goal, let him play across half-forward and I'm seeing someone who can cause problems at AFL level next year if picked.

To begin with I was as intrigued as anyone looking at his raw stats and grand final performance(s), it was only after a bit of digging and taking a step back to look at his production as a whole over the past three years in a more objective fashion that the inflationary effect of his last 7 games relative to the rest of his career became more apparent.

I'm just worried that pundits and recruiters are judging him more on that 7 game hot streak than his performance overall, where production of around 2 goals and 6-8 marks per game at state league level for an overwhelmingly dominant team doesn't really jump off the page.

The big question is whether he can sustain anything near that higher level of performance at WAFL level, never mind carrying across even a fraction of that production at AFL level, where everything in his game will be harder for him to execute and that is where I have some serious doubts. Still if we took a late round flyer or rookied him then we're not exactly selling the farm, but we'd all need to temper our expectations as he would be taking a significant step up in competition.

p.s. Just to be clear I have and will continue to respect your opinions in general Knightmare and I hope you don't take any disagreement that may be happening here on a personal level - just putting forward an alternative point of view more out of devil's advocacy than anything.

 

[sr36]

Subiaco won the grand final by 96 points - it was a cakewalk of the highest order. Context matters even in football sometimes.

Looking back at the season as a whole Subiaco mauled the rest of the league 17-1 record with a percentage of 186 in the regular season and two finals wins against the second placed team by 34 points (14.13 to 10.3) and 96 points (18.12 to 3.6) respectively. The next two best teams were 4 / 5 game games and 50+% behind, followed by the remaining two finals teams who had a 50-50 record for the season.

It was a similar theme in both 2017 and 2018 (FWIW Subiaco have lost a grand total of three games in three years) and, except for a shock loss to to the Fremantle reserves in the 2017 Grand final when Subiaco had a bad day in front of goal kicking 7.10 (plus 4 rushed behinds) to 11.6 nobody in the WAFL has really even gotten close to them.

The WAFL has historically been a pretty strong league in general, but over the past 3 years the competition for Subiaco has been sub-par any way you choose to look at it. Hence the "WAFL is a strong league" argument kind of goes out the window.



While I respect your opinion I have to disagree on that point - his 7 game purple patch averaging 5.4 goals and 10.2 marks a game was absolutely out of nowhere and, prior to that, he was headed for a fairly standard season tally of around the 2 goals / 7 marks per game mark. The quality of the opposition during that 7 game hot streak also needs to be taken into account - I've already touched on that in the previous reply.

In previous years he did bob up with bags every now over the previous couple of years and did put up ok tallies at WAFL level (2.15 goals / 7.5 marks per game in 2018, 2.3 goals / 6 marks per game in 2017), but that is a long way from the 5+ goals / 10+ marks per game he put up in the final 7 games of 2019.



I never said he had poor endurance - I said that the level of endurance he displays at WAFL level would be pretty easily matched by the majority of backmen at AFL level (where basically every player in backlines is pretty much an endurance beast relative to the sort of defenders you see at state level). If you think he's going to be running AFL-level backmen into the ground on a consistent basis then I'm sorry but you're kidding yourself.

If he doesn't have that burst speed or evasiveness then I can potentially see him struggling against opponents who can match his endurance and have him covered in terms of closing speed and athleticism, if/when he does manage to sneak out on a lead (not to mention the must stronger team defensice structures he will be facing).

Maybe he does have just enough smarts to work a more athletically-gifted opponent over at a higher level, but can you rely on that sort of "maybe" when considering him as a draft selection, if he isn't really ticking the boxes on the X's and O's for a small or medium forward (usually those sort of smarts translate well when coupled with speed and agility as a real point of difference - ie. the two Camerons / Ryan / Rioli).



To begin with I was as intrigued as anyone looking at his raw stats and grand final performance(s), it was only after a bit of digging and taking a step back to look at his production as a whole over the past three years in a more objective fashion that the inflationary effect of his last 7 games relative to the rest of his career became more apparent.

I'm just worried that pundits and recruiters are judging him more on that 7 game hot streak than his performance overall, where production of around 2 goals and 6-8 marks per game at state league level for an overwhelmingly dominant team doesn't really jump off the page.

The big question is whether he can sustain anything near that higher level of performance at WAFL level, never mind carrying across even a fraction of that production at AFL level, where everything in his game will be harder for him to execute and that is where I have some serious doubts. Still if we took a late round flyer or rookied him then we're not exactly selling the farm, but we'd all need to temper our expectations as he would be taking a significant step up in competition.

p.s. Just to be clear I have and will continue to respect your opinions in general Knightmare and I hope you don't take any disagreement that may be happening here on a personal level - just putting forward an alternative point of view more out of devil's advocacy than anything.

If his 20 metre sprint test time is an accurate reflection of his pace - 3.2 I think it was, I can't see anyone taking him before the rookie, if at all. You'd have to be freakish to cut it as a medium forward with that sort of pace, because chasing pressure is now such a major part of your role.

 

[Harry O]

I think we are extremely likely to be offering up our 2020 first rounder in live trading to give us 2 picks inside 35. Especially if someone we rank top 10 is still on the board around the 17-23 mark.

 

[manicpie]

If his 20 metre sprint test time is an accurate reflection of his pace - 3.2 I think it was, I can't see anyone taking him before the rookie, if at all. You'd have to be freakish to cut it as a medium forward with that sort of pace, because chasing pressure is now such a major part of your role.

We put up with Crocker for 4 years who is a shadow of Sokol, I'm sure we can give this bloke a late pick or rookie

 

[Knightmare]

Subiaco won the grand final by 96 points - it was a cakewalk of the highest order. Context matters even in football sometimes.

Looking back at the season as a whole Subiaco mauled the rest of the league 17-1 record with a percentage of 186 in the regular season and two finals wins against the second placed team by 34 points (14.13 to 10.3) and 96 points (18.12 to 3.6) respectively. The next two best teams were 4 / 5 game games and 50+% behind, followed by the remaining two finals teams who had a 50-50 record for the season.

It was a similar theme in both 2017 and 2018 (FWIW Subiaco have lost a grand total of three games in three years) and, except for a shock loss to to the Fremantle reserves in the 2017 Grand final when Subiaco had a bad day in front of goal kicking 7.10 (plus 4 rushed behinds) to 11.6 nobody in the WAFL has really even gotten close to them.

The WAFL has historically been a pretty strong league in general, but over the past 3 years the competition for Subiaco has been sub-par any way you choose to look at it. Hence the "WAFL is a strong league" argument kind of goes out the window.

While I respect your opinion I have to disagree on that point - his 7 game purple patch averaging 5.4 goals and 10.2 marks a game was absolutely out of nowhere and, prior to that, he was headed for a fairly standard season tally of around the 2 goals / 7 marks per game mark. The quality of the opposition during that 7 game hot streak also needs to be taken into account - I've already touched on that in the previous reply.

In previous years he did bob up with bags every now over the previous couple of years and did put up ok tallies at WAFL level (2.15 goals / 7.5 marks per game in 2018, 2.3 goals / 6 marks per game in 2017), but that is a long way from the 5+ goals / 10+ marks per game he put up in the final 7 games of 2019.

I never said he had poor endurance - I said that the level of endurance he displays at WAFL level would be pretty easily matched by the majority of backmen at AFL level (where basically every player in backlines is pretty much an endurance beast relative to the sort of defenders you see at state level). If you think he's going to be running AFL-level backmen into the ground on a consistent basis then I'm sorry but you're kidding yourself.

If he doesn't have that burst speed or elusiveness then I can potentially see him struggling against opponents who can match his endurance and have him covered in terms of closing speed and athleticism if/when he does manage to sneak out on a lead (not to mention the must stronger team defensice structures he will be facing).

Maybe he does have just enough smarts to work a more athletically-gifted opponent over at a higher level, but you can't rely on that sort of "maybe" when considering him as a draft selection if he isn't really ticking the boxes on the X's and O's for a small or medium forward.

To begin with I was as intrigued as anyone looking at his raw stats and grand final performance(s), it was only after a bit of digging and taking a step back to look at his production as a whole over the past three years in a more objective fashion that the inflationary effect of his last 7 games relative to the rest of his career became more apparent.

I'm just worried that pundits and recruiters are judging him more on that 7 game hot streak than his performance overall, where production of around 2 goals and 6-8 marks per game at state league level for an overwhelmingly dominant team doesn't really jump off the page.

The big question is whether he can sustain anything near that higher level of performance at WAFL level, never mind carrying across even a fraction of that production at AFL level, where everything in his game will be harder for him to execute and that is where I have some serious doubts. Still if we took a late round flyer or rookied him then we're not exactly selling the farm, but we'd all need to temper our expectations as he would be taking a significant step up in competition.

p.s. Just to be clear I have and will continue to respect your opinions in general Knightmare and I hope you don't take any disagreement that may be happening here on a personal level - just putting forward an alternative point of view more out of devil's advocacy than anything.

Some guys put up numbers on good teams, some guys put up numbers on bad teams. Sokol in the WAFL has been putting up numbers these past three seasons, with a progressive improvement each year - a good indicator for future scope to improve. There hasn't been any more he could reasonably be expected to do from a production standpoint. Again, as mentioned in my previous post, Sokol has produced against the highest possible competition there is to face having kicked the 4 goals in a tightly fought match v SANFL.

Once established that he's performing. It's then a case of looking for points of difference. And he has that. What he does have is the strongest hands outside the AFL overhead - vice-like. Can't stop him on the lead, 1v1 - not only marking but bodywork, reading of the drop of the ball all elite. So he'll take his marks leading up the ground, but also isolated deep take advantage of opponents. He also has the quick mind and fast reflexes in general play - whether it's hitting a contest at the right time to win it on the move and kick the goal or the decision making under pressure to make the right decision and execute. He finishes around goal in general play and from set shots reliably. So he's someone where if looking for his mix of strengths, he can fit in.

If you've got performance, points of difference and a game where you can identify positions on a team or a number of teams where you can say - best 22, plays ahead of this guy, this guy and this guy, and you've got someone. That's what I'm seeing with Sokol.

He's not perfect as you outlined. He doesn't have the speed most forwards today have, but I don't look at that as a prerequisite, particularly being so quick of mind and having good-very good endurance by position.

If his 20 metre sprint test time is an accurate reflection of his pace - 3.2 I think it was, I can't see anyone taking him before the rookie, if at all. You'd have to be freakish to cut it as a medium forward with that sort of pace, because chasing pressure is now such a major part of your role.

I dismiss the relevance of athletic testing in its entirety and I also reject the notion someone has to be fast to be an effective forward.

Why athletic testing is not a useful test of athleticism? See Joel Wilkinson. Best to ever test in speed testing and never could apply it in game. Then you can have a Cyril Rioli who is barely sub 3sec over 20m and tests below average in agility (8.89) and obviously in game that's not really the case. Then you can have a Pendlebury who has never been able to attain sub 3sec 20m sprint despite pushing himself and setting the goal to, and that never came to be.

Saying someone has to be quick to play as a forward would also be suggesting Steele Sidebottom is incompatibly with playing forward. And Sidebottom doesn't mark like Sokol does. Whether isolated 1v1 deep or leading up at the footy, Sokol causes problems and has no problem taking marks and if closer to goal hitting the scoreboard.

 

[sr36]

Saying someone has to be quick to play as a forward would also be suggesting Steele Sidebottom is incompatibly with playing forward. And Sidebottom doesn't mark like Sokol does. Whether isolated 1v1 deep or leading up at the footy, Sokol causes problems and has no problem taking marks and if closer to goal hitting the scoreboard.

I think Sideys pretty freakish in terms of awareness, speed of mind and balance.

There aren't many decent small or medium forwards who are slow. I can't think of any. Can you point me to a few?

 

[Quicky]

Some guys put up numbers on good teams, some guys put up numbers on bad teams. Sokol in the WAFL has been putting up numbers these past three seasons, with a progressive improvement each year - a good indicator for future scope to improve. There hasn't been any more he could reasonably be expected to do from a production standpoint. Again, as mentioned in my previous post, Sokol has produced against the highest possible competition there is to face having kicked the 4 goals in a tightly fought match v SANFL.

Once established that he's performing. It's then a case of looking for points of difference. And he has that. What he does have is the strongest hands outside the AFL overhead - vice-like. Can't stop him on the lead, 1v1 - not only marking but bodywork, reading of the drop of the ball all elite. So he'll take his marks leading up the ground, but also isolated deep take advantage of opponents. He also has the quick mind and fast reflexes in general play - whether it's hitting a contest at the right time to win it on the move and kick the goal or the decision making under pressure to make the right decision and execute. He finishes around goal in general play and from set shots reliably. So he's someone where if looking for his mix of strengths, he can fit in.

If you've got performance, points of difference and a game where you can identify positions on a team or a number of teams where you can say - best 22, plays ahead of this guy, this guy and this guy, and you've got someone. That's what I'm seeing with Sokol.

He's not perfect as you outlined. He doesn't have the speed most forwards today have, but I don't look at that as a prerequisite, particularly being so quick of mind and having good-very good endurance by position.



I dismiss the relevance of athletic testing in its entirety and I also reject the notion someone has to be fast to be an effective forward.

Why athletic testing is not a useful test of athleticism? See Joel Wilkinson. Best to ever test in speed testing and never could apply it in game. Then you can have a Cyril Rioli who is barely sub 3sec over 20m and tests below average in agility (8.89) and obviously in game that's not really the case. Then you can have a Pendlebury who has never been able to attain sub 3sec 20m sprint despite pushing himself and setting the goal to, and that never came to be.

Saying someone has to be quick to play as a forward would also be suggesting Steele Sidebottom is incompatibly with playing forward. And Sidebottom doesn't mark like Sokol does. Whether isolated 1v1 deep or leading up at the footy, Sokol causes problems and has no problem taking marks and if closer to goal hitting the scoreboard.

I like Sokol as a late option and a bit of goal scoring depth. I really can't see where he fits in ahead of anyone in a fit 22 though. Earlier you mentioned WHE and Thomas but to me that fails to acknowledge their contribution and strengths. WHE in particular while he has his flaws is a far more dangerous goal scorer than Sokol ever will be. Look at last years form. I feel you've lost perspective with that call.

 

[Prochard123]

Hi KM,

Historically, selecting KPFs with picks outside the top 30 rarely works, with exceptions like Brown being products of extremely low possibilities.

Which positions do you think have higher success rates despite being later selections? Intuitively I'd say small defenders, inside mids and small forwards.

Problem is I don't think is any of the above categories are areas of need for us. We could potentially gamble on a KPD which seems to be a middle point between KPFs and flankers, where the success rate is decent but not great, but at the end of the day moving up the ladder still seems like the most optimal outcome or trading out our pick 35.

What kind of pick realistically can we get with lets say our 2020 1st round pick + 2019 pick 35? and who could potentially slide to that pick?

 

[sr36]

Hi KM,

Historically, selecting KPFs with picks outside the top 30 rarely works, with exceptions like Brown being products of extremely low possibilities.

Which positions do you think have higher success rates despite being later selections? Intuitively I'd say small defenders, inside mids and small forwards.

Problem is I don't think is any of the above categories are areas of need for us. We could potentially gamble on a KPD which seems to be a middle point between KPFs and flankers, where the success rate is decent but not great, but at the end of the day moving up the ladder still seems like the most optimal outcome or trading out our pick 35.

What kind of pick realistically can we get with lets say our 2020 1st round pick + 2019 pick 35? and who could potentially slide to that pick?

I think we're overdue to add inside mids or forward line crumbers. Thats what im hoping for.

 

[sr36]

I like Sokol as a late option and a bit of goal scoring depth. I really can't see where he fits in ahead of anyone in a fit 22 though. Earlier you mentioned WHE and Thomas but to me that fails to acknowledge their contribution and strengths. WHE in particular while he has his flaws is a far more dangerous goal scorer than Sokol ever will be. Look at last years form. I feel you've lost perspective with that call.

I remember when Ben Johnson was playing back pocket. Every year you'd read phantom drafts and they'd talk about 15 back pockets who were definite upgrades on Ben Johnson. For some reason he was the guy we were intent on upgrading - I actually thought he was a bloody good player. Most of these guys never played a senior game. There's always been a grass is greener element in draft profiles . Its part of their beauty. It means that post draft you can read some decent hype and get excited about our new recruits.

Despite rave reviews, I was disappointed when we took Shaz, because Aish was an exciting athlete with a genuine burst of speed, who tore games apart with an attacking brand of footy certain to translate to AFL.

They are what they are. They're a fun read that gives you bit of an incite into the ultimate ceiling that we could possibly get from the guy we've drafted

 

[Harry O]

Sokol sounds a similar style and age recruit to when Tory Dickson entered the AFL late. Dickson has had a pretty serviceable career and played in a premiership.
I would not use a top 50 pick on Sokol, but happy to use a late or rookie selection.
Schoenberg looks likely - would not be averse to using 35 if he was available.
Would trade next years first rounder into this year if a tall we like slides on the night.

 

[Knightmare]

I think Sideys pretty freakish in terms of awareness, speed of mind and balance.

There aren't many decent small or medium forwards who are slow. I can't think of any. Can you point me to a few?

Sokol fits that same category as Sidebottom. A slow forward who has the game.

Can't think of any top of mind. I'm happy for others to add some if they think of any others.

From a recruiting perspective, I recommend not getting sucked into excluding players who don't fit the traditional mold in a given position and take guys who can play, as these guys can be found and create new draft trends and clubs looking for the next of that type. It happens in the AFL and happens in other team sports.

It's like in the NBA how players had to be 'true point guards' and now with a lot of three point specialists entering the game, what is viewed as what you need to be able to do at the position has changed. It's a similar story with what once was termed as tweeners or often undersized centres and power forwards. Draymond Green has revolutionised the position and shown that you don't need to be tall and can play a position differently.

Those lessons need to be applied in the AFL. If a guy can play, a guy can play.

I like Sokol as a late option and a bit of goal scoring depth. I really can't see where he fits in ahead of anyone in a fit 22 though. Earlier you mentioned WHE and Thomas but to me that fails to acknowledge their contribution and strengths. WHE in particular while he has his flaws is a far more dangerous goal scorer than Sokol ever will be. Look at last years form. I feel you've lost perspective with that call.

WHE has only had the one good patch (first half of 2018). My hope is he can get back to producing that level of performance but until he does you never really know and until then I can't class him as someone that can be relied on. Same story with Josh Thomas having a strong 2018 season but that being one good season. Neither are optimal best 22 players unless they recapture that form from those periods.

In one of my earlier posts I'm sure I outlined both their strengths and limitations so I won't cover the same ground again.

Around goal, I happen to disagree on Sokol. He averages 3 goals per game, the best of any of the three major state leagues and does it not just deep in the front half but spending a lot of time across half-forward. His hands overhead and body-work is on an entirely different level to WHE. And WHE I regard a good mark and an aerial threat and threat on the lead. I don't regard WHE's ball winning capabilities as highly as unlike Sokol he can't win his own ball and whether close to goal or up the ground I slightly prefer Sokol. WHE is the far superior athlete, but you don't have to be an athlete to be a good footballer. Tom Rockliff certainly isn't, nor is Josh Kennedy.

Hi KM,

Historically, selecting KPFs with picks outside the top 30 rarely works, with exceptions like Brown being products of extremely low possibilities.

Which positions do you think have higher success rates despite being later selections? Intuitively I'd say small defenders, inside mids and small forwards.

Problem is I don't think is any of the above categories are areas of need for us. We could potentially gamble on a KPD which seems to be a middle point between KPFs and flankers, where the success rate is decent but not great, but at the end of the day moving up the ladder still seems like the most optimal outcome or trading out our pick 35.

What kind of pick realistically can we get with lets say our 2020 1st round pick + 2019 pick 35? and who could potentially slide to that pick?

My theory with key forwards for a good period of time was you need early picks to get good ones. And that idea of mine stems from my view that if you're going to be a key forward at the next level, you either need to be elite or near elite, or you're not suitable for selection as a key forward. And that largely plays into the idea of featuring early draft. By over the last 5-6 years that hasn't proven entirely accurate and as such methodology needs changing. Justin Westhoff, Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Brody Mihocek, Josh Jenkins, Mason Cox, Esava Ratugolea, Matt Tabener, Nick Larkey, Mitchell Lewis. None of those guys were early selections.

My view through that learning has pivoted towards instead being about players I regard as first round quality, even if they're rated as later picks. Brown and Esava to name two of those I really liked and should have rated more highly, but due to their respective perceptions as later picks I didn't rate them as high as I should, subscribing too strongly to this original and really not completely correct notion.

If the club gamble on a key defender Bigoa Nyuon is the guy I'd gamble on in the national draft. Otherwise as a rookie I like Nick Murray (brother of Sam) as a key defender and while undersized I also rate Brodie Newman and feel he is also underappreciated with both in my view suitable for selection as rookies.

I'm not all that concerned about trading up this year. 35 and later I feel Collingwood can get some players and I'd prefer to maintain next year's first as I can see some chances Collingwood drop and that pick being more useful during next year's trade period.

If the 2020 first and pick 35 were offered you'd be lucky to get something like Port Adelaide's first would roughly the best I can see as plausible. Gold Coast if they can't move up otherwise may be willing to move pick 15 back and cash in on Collingwood's 2020 first. But from a points perspective, any trade to get into this draft takes away from that potential total draft position value. If Collnigwood get pick 12, Fischer McAsey or Brodie Kemp would be good gets and those better two who might be there.

Sokol sounds a similar style and age recruit to when Tory Dickson entered the AFL late. Dickson has had a pretty serviceable career and played in a premiership.
I would not use a top 50 pick on Sokol, but happy to use a late or rookie selection.
Schoenberg looks likely - would not be averse to using 35 if he was available.
Would trade next years first rounder into this year if a tall we like slides on the night.

Sokol I only advocate late/rookie. At 35 I feel there are other better options and late draft is more where I see the value.

Schoenberg I like at 35. He's one of this year's better ball winners and a good piece. Byrnes with that second pick would be one where if available I'd be punching the air.

Riccardi I'd consider late if available as a key forward, or Biggy Nyuon from the Saints Academy and hope they don't match. But they're the main two in the national draft I'd go after. Fischer McAsey I feel is undervalued and worth a clear top-10 pick and probably falls outside that, so that may be more what the club would consider if looking to move up. I just don't feel that same urgency.

 

[sr36]

Sokol fits that same category as Sidebottom. A slow forward who has the game.

Can't think of any top of mind. I'm happy for others to add some if they think of any others.

From a recruiting perspective, I recommend not getting sucked into excluding players who don't fit the traditional mold in a given position and take guys who can play, as these guys can be found and create new draft trends and clubs looking for the next of that type. It happens in the AFL and happens in other team sports.

It's like in the NBA how players had to be 'true point guards' and now with a lot of three point specialists entering the game, what is viewed as what you need to be able to do at the position has changed. It's a similar story with what once was termed as tweeners or often undersized centres and power forwards. Draymond Green has revolutionised the position and shown that you don't need to be tall and can play a position differently.

Those lessons need to be applied in the AFL. If a guy can play, a guy can play.

Fair enough. I still wouldn't draft a slow medium forward though, unless I thought he had midfield potential. The way I see it, the forward line is a tough gig, and unless you've got the pace to get separation, having great hands doesn't help you that much. And if you're that clever and have that many tricks that you can compensate for that, well you probably should be playing midfield anyway as it better suits your athletic profile.

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough. I still wouldn't draft a slow medium forward though, unless I thought he had midfield potential. The way I see it, the forward line is a tough gig, and unless you've got the pace to get separation, having great hands doesn't help you that much. And if you're that clever and have that many tricks that you can compensate for that, well you probably should be playing midfield anyway as it better suits your athletic profile.

I'd like to see Sokol develop the scope to push through the midfield. I haven't seen him get the chance through there, but he has that strength and power over the ball to be good through there, quick of mind. Endurance is good, so it's something he should be able to adapt to if given the shot.

 

[sr36]

I'd like to see Sokol develop the scope to push through the midfield. I haven't seen him get the chance through there, but he has that strength and power over the ball to be good through there, quick of mind. Endurance is good, so it's something he should be able to adapt to if given the shot.

Your descriptions of Sokol make me think of Fasolo. I reckon Faz would have been a bloody good mid if he had have developed the endurance, or would have been a bloody good forward if he had pace.

 

[Knightmare]

Your descriptions of Sokol make me think of Fasolo. I reckon Faz would have been a bloody good mid if he had have developed the endurance, or would have been a bloody good forward if he had pace.

Every time I watch Sokol, I think I'm watching Dane Swan if he was a forward. If Sokol can become anything like a lite version through the midfield, just with near best in the competition marking/1v1 capabilities, that's what he brings to the table. Perhaps he could start at stoppages and push forward from there for some change ups, but he's one where he at the attributes where I'd explore some things and some midfield possibilities.

 

[sr36]

Every time I watch Sokol, I think I'm watching Dane Swan if he was a forward. If Sokol can become anything like a lite version through the midfield, just with near best in the competition marking/1v1 capabilities, that's what he brings to the table. Perhaps he could start at stoppages and push forward from there for some change ups, but he's one where he at the attributes where I'd explore some things and some midfield possibilities.

I want JDG doing that. I want JDG at all forward half stoppages too, rather than moving ahead of the ball when there's a stoppage.

Good luck to Sokol, but to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if he went undrafted -even in the rookie - based solely on his position and 20 metre sprint test time. To me it's a big like a strongly performing state league ruckman who stands at 196cm, who has to have KPP potential or very few will be interested.