Bigfooty Official Phantom Draft - recruiter notes

[Knightmare]

I want JDG doing that. I want JDG at all forward half stoppages too, rather than moving ahead of the ball when there's a stoppage.

Good luck to Sokol, but to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if he went undrafted -even in the rookie - based solely on his position and 20 metre sprint test time. To me it's a big like a strongly performing state league ruckman who stands at 196cm, who has to have KPP potential or very few will be interested.

I have the same vision of JDG. He's the club's best stoppage player, and it's a way to ensure he remains involved in games rather than having quiet patches which happens when playing purely forward.

 

[sr36]

I have the same vision of JDG. He's the club's best stoppage player, and it's a way to ensure he remains involved in games rather than having quiet patches which happens when playing purely forward.

He's certainly our most dangerous stoppage player. Might not be the overall best, as he rolls the dice a bit too much for defensive half stoppages.

 

[Knightmare]

He's certainly our most dangerous stoppage player. Might not be the overall best, as he rolls the dice a bit too much for defensive half stoppages.

I could rephrase and say best first possession winner. With Grundy dominating through there that first possession winner is what the club need most, as they're not at the present time taking enough advantage of his presence.

 

[sr36]

I could rephrase and say best first possession winner. With Grundy dominating through there that first possession winner is what the club need most, as they're not at the present time taking enough advantage of his presence.

JDG not being used even at forward half stoppages is right up there for me in terms of frustration. The rigidity or our defensive structure that doesn't allow Moore and Howe to be used as marking targets really irritates me too. We don't use our best marks as marking targets or our most dangerous stoppage player in forward half stoppages - even though he plays in the forward line - it makes no sense to me.

 

[sr36]

Historically, selecting KPFs with picks outside the top 30 rarely works, with exceptions like Brown being products of extremely low possibilities.

Whilst this is historically true. I think that's changing and is more to do with the AFLs love affair with KPFs than anything else. Historically, recruiters have spent really high picks on KPFs with a half chance of making it. It's the player type that we've seen the most high picks burnt on. It used to be that half of the top 10 were KPFs. Thus nearly all the KPFs with a realistic chance went really high.

I think recruiters have changed in this regard and are now valuing them more sensibly so like all other positions we'll see them taken at all stages of the draft.

 

[Prochard123]

Sokol fits that same category as Sidebottom. A slow forward who has the game.

Can't think of any top of mind. I'm happy for others to add some if they think of any others.

From a recruiting perspective, I recommend not getting sucked into excluding players who don't fit the traditional mold in a given position and take guys who can play, as these guys can be found and create new draft trends and clubs looking for the next of that type. It happens in the AFL and happens in other team sports.

It's like in the NBA how players had to be 'true point guards' and now with a lot of three point specialists entering the game, what is viewed as what you need to be able to do at the position has changed. It's a similar story with what once was termed as tweeners or often undersized centres and power forwards. Draymond Green has revolutionised the position and shown that you don't need to be tall and can play a position differently.

Those lessons need to be applied in the AFL. If a guy can play, a guy can play.



WHE has only had the one good patch (first half of 2018). My hope is he can get back to producing that level of performance but until he does you never really know and until then I can't class him as someone that can be relied on. Same story with Josh Thomas having a strong 2018 season but that being one good season. Neither are optimal best 22 players unless they recapture that form from those periods.

In one of my earlier posts I'm sure I outlined both their strengths and limitations so I won't cover the same ground again.

Around goal, I happen to disagree on Sokol. He averages 3 goals per game, the best of any of the three major state leagues and does it not just deep in the front half but spending a lot of time across half-forward. His hands overhead and body-work is on an entirely different level to WHE. And WHE I regard a good mark and an aerial threat and threat on the lead. I don't regard WHE's ball winning capabilities as highly as unlike Sokol he can't win his own ball and whether close to goal or up the ground I slightly prefer Sokol. WHE is the far superior athlete, but you don't have to be an athlete to be a good footballer. Tom Rockliff certainly isn't, nor is Josh Kennedy.



My theory with key forwards for a good period of time was you need early picks to get good ones. And that idea of mine stems from my view that if you're going to be a key forward at the next level, you either need to be elite or near elite, or you're not suitable for selection as a key forward. And that largely plays into the idea of featuring early draft. By over the last 5-6 years that hasn't proven entirely accurate and as such methodology needs changing. Justin Westhoff, Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Brody Mihocek, Josh Jenkins, Mason Cox, Esava Ratugolea, Matt Tabener, Nick Larkey, Mitchell Lewis. None of those guys were early selections.

My view through that learning has pivoted towards instead being about players I regard as first round quality, even if they're rated as later picks. Brown and Esava to name two of those I really liked and should have rated more highly, but due to their respective perceptions as later picks I didn't rate them as high as I should, subscribing too strongly to this original and really not completely correct notion.

If the club gamble on a key defender Bigoa Nyuon is the guy I'd gamble on in the national draft. Otherwise as a rookie I like Nick Murray (brother of Sam) as a key defender and while undersized I also rate Brodie Newman and feel he is also underappreciated with both in my view suitable for selection as rookies.

I'm not all that concerned about trading up this year. 35 and later I feel Collingwood can get some players and I'd prefer to maintain next year's first as I can see some chances Collingwood drop and that pick being more useful during next year's trade period.

If the 2020 first and pick 35 were offered you'd be lucky to get something like Port Adelaide's first would roughly the best I can see as plausible. Gold Coast if they can't move up otherwise may be willing to move pick 15 back and cash in on Collingwood's 2020 first. But from a points perspective, any trade to get into this draft takes away from that potential total draft position value. If Collnigwood get pick 12, Fischer McAsey or Brodie Kemp would be good gets and those better two who might be there.



Sokol I only advocate late/rookie. At 35 I feel there are other better options and late draft is more where I see the value.

Schoenberg I like at 35. He's one of this year's better ball winners and a good piece. Byrnes with that second pick would be one where if available I'd be punching the air.

Riccardi I'd consider late if available as a key forward, or Biggy Nyuon from the Saints Academy and hope they don't match. But they're the main two in the national draft I'd go after. Fischer McAsey I feel is undervalued and worth a clear top-10 pick and probably falls outside that, so that may be more what the club would consider if looking to move up. I just don't feel that same urgency.

Out of "Justin Westhoff, Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Brody Mihocek, Josh Jenkins, Mason Cox, Esava Ratugolea, Matt Tabener, Nick Larkey, Mitchell Lewis. None of those guys were early selections"

I'd say only Westhoff, Brown, Mcdonald, Jenkins and Larkey are worthwhile to pick at 35 given our situation.

Think that's an extraordinarily low success rate given some examples you used go 13 years back.

I suppose there're different schools of thoughts. Do you maximise the chances of landing a fringe best 22 player with limited upside? Or do you become more risk taking and go for the player with the best chance of becoming an important member of the team's structure?

My view is that there is no clear answer and it's really situation based. For us, given we have a wealth of depth in the areas I mentioned with higher chances of success, I'd be inclined to take a player with largest upside in a position with the least competition within our team (KPF).

I personally really like Lachlan Ash and William Kemp from this year's draft. Both have clear areas of strength that mitigate some deficient areas in our team structure. If they're available around the teens I'd be happy to trade out our 1st rounder to move up the draft.

Not as keen on other small/medium forwards/flankers in the 1st round, let alone Sokol. Think very few of them will reach the level of WHE.

WHE for one is criminally underrated IMO. Class, endurance, speed... Has everything you need to be a strong leading half-forward. Likely to be a strong chance of kicking 40+ goals a year consistently if we played him deeper in the forward line and have him as more of a focal point rather than support. I personally think a forward line of:
HF: WHE ~ Mihocek ~ Stephenson
FF: Elliot ~ Cox/Cameron ~ Thomas

De Goey should rotate through the midfield, having both him and Elliot as main marking targets along with 2 KPFs has pretty crap balance.

 

[Knightmare]

Random note for those saying a 3.2sec 20m sprint time is too slow.
These are just a few of the official national or state combine scores of each player in their draft year and their best result of three tries. Something I just had a quick squizz at, I'm sure there are plenty of others but it's a good point of comparison to see how fast/slow Sokol is compared to others:
*only have old data so don't have any more recent but it's probably more interesting seeing it against more established players anyway.

Brody Mihocek 3.38
Tom Lynch 3.31 (Gold Coast/Richmond version)
Brian Lake 3.29
Matt Crouch 3.25
David Astbury 3.24
Matt Spangher 3.24
Paul Seedsman 3.23
Patrick Cripps 3.23
Alex Pearce 3.22
Steele Sidebottom 3.22
Jake Lloyd 3.22
Dylan Robertson 3.21
Kepler Bradley 3.21
Tom Rockliff in first year of draft eligibility 3.21 and 3.17 the next
Taylor Walker 3.21
Marcus Bontempelli 3.20
Matt Priddis 3.17 in draft eligible year, 3.2 the following year
Greg Broughton 3.2
Sam Dwyer 3.2
Justin Westhoff 3.2
Michael Gibbons 3.19
Jake Lever 3.19
Daniel Giansiracusa 3.19
Dom Cassisi 3.18
Nick Smith 3.18
Robbie Tarrant 3.18
Mitch Robinson 3.18
Sam Lloyd 3.17
Brody Grundy 3.17 - only ruckman I decided to include but more so because I thought it may be of interest.
Toby McLean 3.17
Nick Newman 3.16
Josh Kennedy (Carl/WCE) 3.16
Joel Selwood 3.16
Lachie Whitfield 3.15
*Ben Sokol 3.14 (2013). This year 3.2
Dayne Zorko 3.14 (2011). 2.08 in 2007 when first eligible.

Seeing some of the names here is why I hold athletic testing in low regard. Seedsman slower than Sokol? Whitfield slower than Sokol in his draft year? Michael Gibbons I always viewed as quick and Joel Selwood while no athlete is hardly glacially slow. McLean is a leaper, but I would have thought he would test better. Zorko I don't view as slow. Same with most of them including a lot of the talls.

Out of "Justin Westhoff, Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Brody Mihocek, Josh Jenkins, Mason Cox, Esava Ratugolea, Matt Tabener, Nick Larkey, Mitchell Lewis. None of those guys were early selections"

I'd say only Westhoff, Brown, Mcdonald, Jenkins and Larkey are worthwhile to pick at 35 given our situation.

Think that's an extraordinarily low success rate given some examples you used go 13 years back.

I suppose there're different schools of thoughts. Do you maximise the chances of landing a fringe best 22 player with limited upside? Or do you become more risk taking and go for the player with the best chance of becoming an important member of the team's structure?

My view is that there is no clear answer and it's really situation based. For us, given we have a wealth of depth in the areas I mentioned with higher chances of success, I'd be inclined to take a player with largest upside in a position with the least competition within our team (KPF).

I personally really like Lachlan Ash and William Kemp from this year's draft. Both have clear areas of strength that mitigate some deficient areas in our team structure. If they're available around the teens I'd be happy to trade out our 1st rounder to move up the draft.

Not as keen on other small/medium forwards/flankers in the 1st round, let alone Sokol. Think very few of them will reach the level of WHE.

WHE for one is criminally underrated IMO. Class, endurance, speed... Has everything you need to be a strong leading half-forward. Likely to be a strong chance of kicking 40+ goals a year consistently if we played him deeper in the forward line and have him as more of a focal point rather than support. I personally think a forward line of:
HF: WHE ~ Mihocek ~ Stephenson
FF: Elliot ~ Cox/Cameron ~ Thomas

De Goey should rotate through the midfield, having both him and Elliot as main marking targets along with 2 KPFs has pretty crap balance.

I wouldn't sleep on Lewis. His second half of the season was strong.

Jenkins fell out of favour for Adelaide but he hasn't dropped below two goals per game over the last 6 years. I actually rate all those guys.

But as you and others have gathered over the years with key forward posts being spots of superiority of talent generally those who go early are those better ones unless they're overlooked or in a particularly good development system, or have a late growth spurt or some other reason.

With drafting key forwards. My view is draft them exclusively if you project them to be of a clear best 22 standard. If you don't think that. Don't draft them. And generally those guys will be your first round selections or sometimes second round selections. I'm more than satisfied with going small/medium up forward and having no pure key forwards because in the front half it's you dictating and the defence has to adjust to you and who you have there.

Draft a rubbish key forward and they'll be thrown out of the system in no time, waste/take up a list position or if they hang around waste a list position and take away games that someone more useful could contribute. So it's just taking those good key forwards when they're there.

Lachlan Ash is going top 10. Brodie Kemp may/may not go top 10. He's on that fringe.

From your proposed from half unless Thomas replicates his 2018 play he's one I wouldn't persist with.

 

[sr36]

Random note for those saying a 3.2sec 20m sprint time is too slow.
These are just a few of the official national or state combine scores of each player in their draft year and their best result of three tries. Something I just had a quick squizz at, I'm sure there are plenty of others but it's a good point of comparison to see how fast/slow Sokol is compared to others:
*only have old data so don't have any more recent but it's probably more interesting seeing it against more established players anyway.

Brody Mihocek 3.38
Tom Lynch 3.31 (Gold Coast/Richmond version)
Brian Lake 3.29
Matt Crouch 3.25
David Astbury 3.24
Matt Spangher 3.24
Paul Seedsman 3.23
Patrick Cripps 3.23
Alex Pearce 3.22
Steele Sidebottom 3.22
Jake Lloyd 3.22
Dylan Robertson 3.21
Kepler Bradley 3.21
Tom Rockliff in first year of draft eligibility 3.21 and 3.17 the next
Taylor Walker 3.21
Marcus Bontempelli 3.20
Matt Priddis 3.17 in draft eligible year, 3.2 the following year
Greg Broughton 3.2
Sam Dwyer 3.2
Justin Westhoff 3.2
Michael Gibbons 3.19
Jake Lever 3.19
Daniel Giansiracusa 3.19
Dom Cassisi 3.18
Nick Smith 3.18
Robbie Tarrant 3.18
Mitch Robinson 3.18
Sam Lloyd 3.17
Brody Grundy 3.17 - only ruckman I decided to include but more so because I thought it may be of interest.
Toby McLean 3.17
Nick Newman 3.16
Josh Kennedy (Carl/WCE) 3.16
Joel Selwood 3.16
Lachie Whitfield 3.15
*Ben Sokol 3.14 (2013). This year 3.2
Dayne Zorko 3.14 (2011). 2.08 in 2007 when first eligible.

Seeing some of the names here is why I hold athletic testing in low regard. Seedsman slower than Sokol? Whitfield slower than Sokol in his draft year? Michael Gibbons I always viewed as quick and Joel Selwood while no athlete is hardly glacially slow. McLean is a leaper, but I would have thought he would test better. Zorko I don't view as slow. Same with most of them including a lot of the talls.

I don't think that list debunks that it's going to be much harder for small/medium forwards who lack pace. The vast majority of the list are mids and kpp and not small or medium forwards. Agree that times aren't necessarily reflective of what they can do on the footy field or even how fast they actually are.

I'd never write off a forward who lacks pace, but he's got to be better offensively, as his chasing pressure is unlikely to be as good, thus he's much harder to justify drafting unless he's freakish or has demonstrated good midfield form - where his athletic attributes are likely to be more suited.

 

[sr36]

But as you and others have gathered over the years with key forward posts being spots of superiority of talent generally those who go early are those better ones unless they're overlooked or in a particularly good development system, or have a late growth spurt or some other reason.

I'd argue that historically it wasn't just the better ones who went early. They all went early, and thus a heap of early picks were wasted on blokes who didn't make it. This meant there was very little chance of any good ones slipping to late picks. I think this is changing as there aren't any where near as many going early, so we've already started to get a few decent prospects slip through to later points of the draft. Ratugolea and Lewis are bloody good prospects.

 

[TradeDraft]

Random note for those saying a 3.2sec 20m sprint time is too slow.
These are just a few of the official national or state combine scores of each player in their draft year and their best result of three tries. Something I just had a quick squizz at, I'm sure there are plenty of others but it's a good point of comparison to see how fast/slow Sokol is compared to others:
*only have old data so don't have any more recent but it's probably more interesting seeing it against more established players anyway.

Brody Mihocek 3.38
Tom Lynch 3.31 (Gold Coast/Richmond version)
Brian Lake 3.29
Matt Crouch 3.25
David Astbury 3.24
Matt Spangher 3.24
Paul Seedsman 3.23
Patrick Cripps 3.23
Alex Pearce 3.22
Steele Sidebottom 3.22
Jake Lloyd 3.22
Dylan Robertson 3.21
Kepler Bradley 3.21
Tom Rockliff in first year of draft eligibility 3.21 and 3.17 the next
Taylor Walker 3.21
Marcus Bontempelli 3.20
Matt Priddis 3.17 in draft eligible year, 3.2 the following year
Greg Broughton 3.2
Sam Dwyer 3.2
Justin Westhoff 3.2
Michael Gibbons 3.19
Jake Lever 3.19
Daniel Giansiracusa 3.19
Dom Cassisi 3.18
Nick Smith 3.18
Robbie Tarrant 3.18
Mitch Robinson 3.18
Sam Lloyd 3.17
Brody Grundy 3.17 - only ruckman I decided to include but more so because I thought it may be of interest.
Toby McLean 3.17
Nick Newman 3.16
Josh Kennedy (Carl/WCE) 3.16
Joel Selwood 3.16
Lachie Whitfield 3.15
*Ben Sokol 3.14 (2013). This year 3.2
Dayne Zorko 3.14 (2011). 2.08 in 2007 when first eligible.

Seeing some of the names here is why I hold athletic testing in low regard. Seedsman slower than Sokol? Whitfield slower than Sokol in his draft year? Michael Gibbons I always viewed as quick and Joel Selwood while no athlete is hardly glacially slow. McLean is a leaper, but I would have thought he would test better. Zorko I don't view as slow. Same with most of them including a lot of the talls.

There is Difference between speed at a Combine then During the Game.

I call it Game Speed

 

[Soups]

There is Difference between speed at a Combine then During the Game.

I call it Game Speed

And then there’s before-game speed. That what Murray had.

 

[MyManLynch]

And then there’s before-game speed. That what Murray had.

edit: ‘inadvertent speed’

 

[Fratbrat]

edit: ‘inadvertent speed’

He tripped, his nose inadvertently fell on some speed and he inhaled with surprise, we've all been there.

 

[manicpie]

He tripped, his nose inadvertently fell on some speed and he inhaled with surprise, we've all been there.

There's a big difference between speed and coke, if he fell in some some speed it must have been over 10 years ago because it hasn't been around for more than 10 years

 

[Scodog10]

There is Difference between speed at a Combine then During the Game.

I call it Game Speed

Great point TD! The litmus test will be whether he can nudge top end speed of 30kmh and repeat sprint ability which is a far greater indicator of in game speed than the 20 metre sprint testing.

 

[The hyphon]

Elijah Taylor hope he sildes just the player we need great x factor ,great pedigree and most importantly loves the Pies.Is a pies supporter and models his game on Leon Davis

 

[sr36]

Elijah Taylor hope he sildes just the player we need great x factor ,great pedigree and most importantly loves the Pies.Is a pies supporter and models his game on Leon Davis

How can an 18 year old model his game on Neon Leon?

 

[jackcass]

How can an 18 year old model his game on Neon Leon?

Might have watched his games down in the Western districts.

 

[sr36]

Might have watched his games down in the Western districts.

Is he still playing? For some reason I was thinking Leon stopped completely the moment he left the Pies.

 

[sr36]

Great point TD! The litmus test will be whether he can nudge top end speed of 30kmh and repeat sprint ability which is a far greater indicator of in game speed than the 20 metre sprint testing.

The other issue is balance. Guys like Sidebottom can maintain pretty close to top speed whilst changing direction through congestion.

 

[jackcass]

Is he still playing? For some reason I was thinking Leon stopped completely the moment he left the Pies.

Turns out occasionally with the Wanderers (I think) in Heywood.

 

[Fratbrat]

There's a big difference between speed and coke, if he fell in some some speed it must have been over 10 years ago because it hasn't been around for more than 10 years

Didn't it just evolve into ice?

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Harrison Jones - 35
Darcy Chirgwin - 48
Dyson Hilder - 52

Yes please, and thank you.

 

[TradeDraft]

So Knightmare who could we be looking at Picking at 48?

 

[Fratbrat]

So Knightmare who could we be looking at Picking at 48?

And if we are bundling 35 and 48 to get a mid 20's pick who might that be?