Prediction Blokes in the gun in 2021

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shimaburnsgrieg

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Apr 1, 2017
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When Kyron went back hard in front of Lynch and BMac - not worrying about what was to come - then I knew he had what it took to be part of our future.

His runs from defence showed he was capable of being offensive as well - sure a couple of mistakes - but he wasn't afraid to take the game on.

I have been one of the biggest fans of At's since he arrived - just go through his player page - but if we are playing At's instead of Hayden then we are taking the pi55 and need to reconsider what we want as a club.
 

Devington

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When Kyron went back hard in front of Lynch and BMac - not worrying about what was to come - then I knew he had what it took to be part of our future.

His runs from defence showed he was capable of being offensive as well - sure a couple of mistakes - but he wasn't afraid to take the game on.

I have been one of the biggest fans of At's since he arrived - just go through his player page - but if we are playing At's instead of Hayden then we are taking the pi55 and need to reconsider what we want as a club.
You do realise players can still learn and improve their craft while playing in the VFL, right?

I think Kyron has great potential and it's been shown clearly with some of his individual moments on the field. But he's still young and inexperienced and we saw him make plenty of mistakes on the field too. His injury history is also a concern. He's no sure bet.

Should we just be replacing all the senior players we have with kids that have the potential to be better than them?
 

shimaburnsgrieg

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You do realise players can still learn and improve their craft while playing in the VFL, right?

I think Kyron has great potential and it's been shown clearly with some of his individual moments on the field. But he's still young and inexperienced and we saw him make plenty of mistakes on the field too. His injury history is also a concern. He's no sure bet.

Should we just be replacing all the senior players we have with kids that have the potential to be better than them?
Not all by any means - I haven't seen anyone posting that view - but Kyron for Ats is a no brainer given how much experience we will have in the back half.

We still will have Cunners, Taz, JZ, Polec, Goldie et al as experienced players - in fact we wont have a young side at all by any means given the current projected best 22 so I am not sure why the reaction.
 

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Devington

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Not all by any means - I haven't seen anyone posting that view - but Kyron for Ats is a no brainer given how much experience we will have in the back half.

We still will have Cunners, Taz, JZ, Polec, Goldie et al as experienced players - in fact we wont have a young side at all by any means given the current projected best 22 so I am not sure why the reaction.
To illustrate the flawed logic of replacing a senior player with a younger one, simply because the younger one looks like they *might* end up better than the older.
Also there are several posters that don't think JZ or Polec have a spot in the 22.

Right now Atley is the better player. More durable, more experienced, and much more consistent. That might change next year, maybe even over the course of this year, and there's even an outside chance Kyron absolutely demolishes this pre season and eclipses Shaun. But based on last year's showing, right now Kyron is still the lesser player.

We completely reshaped the list at the end of last season, vastly changing the age demographics. The squad demographics will reflect that, and increasingly more so over time. This year we'll also actually have access to a proper development league, rather than those bullshit scratch matches we saw last year. There's no shame in the younger players ironing out their weaknesses in the VFL.
 

shimaburnsgrieg

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To illustrate the flawed logic of replacing a senior player with a younger one, simply because the younger one looks like they *might* end up better than the older.
Also there are several posters that don't think JZ or Polec have a spot in the 22.

Right now Atley is the better player. More durable, more experienced, and much more consistent. That might change next year, maybe even over the course of this year, and there's even an outside chance Kyron absolutely demolishes this pre season and eclipses Shaun. But based on last year's showing, right now Kyron is still the lesser player.

We completely reshaped the list at the end of last season, vastly changing the age demographics. The squad demographics will reflect that, and increasingly more so over time. This year we'll also actually have access to a proper development league, rather than those bullshit scratch matches we saw last year. There's no shame in the younger players ironing out their weaknesses in the VFL.
Well luckily for us your way of thinking - which has been the club's way of thinking for the past 4 years - is now well and truly over.

Your 'senior players have to be preferred' approach is what directly led to the abomination of a list we ended up with last year that needed drastic restructuring.

It's about getting the right demographic balance in the list and in the 22 we put out each week and we are now in a position to do that.

Going with the league's oldest backline in (which is what you are suggesting)

Atley Taz Corr
Lmac BMac JZ

would be a throwback to the Scott days and that wont be happening under Noble.

In fact under your approach J Walker would be considered 'a better player right now' than BMAc so he would slot into that position I assume?

We will be getting the mix right under Noble and we will all be thankful for that in 2-3 years time.
 

Waussie

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Nov 26, 2017
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Devington

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Well luckily for us your way of thinking - which has been the club's way of thinking for the past 4 years - is now well and truly over.

Your 'senior players have to be preferred' approach is what directly led to the abomination of a list we ended up with last year that needed drastic restructuring.

It's about getting the right demographic balance in the list and in the 22 we put out each week and we are now in a position to do that.

Going with the league's oldest backline in (which is what you are suggesting)

Atley Taz Corr
Lmac BMac JZ

would be a throwback to the Scott days and that wont be happening under Noble.

In fact under your approach J Walker would be considered 'a better player right now' than BMAc so he would slot into that position I assume?

We will be getting the mix right under Noble and we will all be thankful for that in 2-3 years time.
It's not a case of 'senior players are preferred' It's a case of Atley, right now, being a better player in that position.

And no, I actually think Bmac is already better than J Walker when it comes to defending the bigger bodies. Another difference is that he's 2 years older thatn Kyron and his scope for improvement in the VFL is far more limited.
 

Waussie

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Nov 26, 2017
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It's not a case of 'senior players are preferred' It's a case of Atley, right now, being a better player in that position.

And no, I actually think Bmac is already better than J Walker when it comes to defending the bigger bodies. Another difference is that he's 2 years older thatn Kyron and his scope for improvement in the VFL is far more limited.
And based on the fact that vfl and AFL level are a step apart in skill level, would it not be better based on the longer term vision the club has, for players like Kyron, Flynn ECT to have accelerated development in the AFL whilst we are in build mode and Ats would not be part of that future.
We have a senior backline that adding youth too will not be a massive impact. Both Kyron and Flynn proved last year to be able to hold their own.
Ats as a player is ok, but both of these boys offer a point of difference to the backline. Young is another option, but I haven't seen anything of him so will hold my opinion.
 

Flawed Genius

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Atley isn't fit to tie Haydens boots
This is absolute rubbish. I like Hayden and his commitment to the contest, I love his willingness to take the game on and defend doggedly, his attitude to come back from a serious Achilles injury speaks volumes to his character as a young man and a footballer, and he has terrific potential, but the above statement is just ... patently wrong

Ats has played 214 games for the club and barring injuries preventing him from doing so will probably approach near 300. Hayden is as yet an unproven, potential-filled unknown quantity who may not get half that
 

Devington

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On some of the most basic statistics (not a huge fan of using them, but the more 'simple' the statistic the less f***ery champion data can do to it) Kyron loses heavily to Atley

He had 4 games under 10 disposals. Atley had 1.
2 games of 15 or more disposals. Atley had 11.
4 games under 5 effective disposals. Atley had 0.
2 games over 10 effective disposals. Atley had 13

3 games of over 80% TOG. Atley had 1 game under 80.

Adjust the number of games played to Kyron playing a full season if you want, he still doesn't match Atley. Increased TOG also doesn't linearly scale to increased output. There's generally a reason that players have the TOG they have, and that's mostly (though certainly not all) related to their fitness. Sorry.

The post after this one quoted, which is deleted, is just a ******* abhorrant take.

And based on the fact that vfl and AFL level are a step apart in skill level, would it not be better based on the longer term vision the club has, for players like Kyron, Flynn ECT to have accelerated development in the AFL whilst we are in build mode and Ats would not be part of that future.
We have a senior backline that adding youth too will not be a massive impact. Both Kyron and Flynn proved last year to be able to hold their own.
Ats as a player is ok, but both of these boys offer a point of difference to the backline. Young is another option, but I haven't seen anything of him so will hold my opinion.
Good and fair post. Absolutely there is a difference between the speed and skill level between AFL and VFL (and tbh it will become more disparate with the tinkerings to the VFL this year), but Kyron and Flynn will be 3rd and 2nd year players respectively this year (and have both missed large chunks of development through injury regardless) and I absolutely believe they have plenty to learn and gain from the VFL still. I also don't think the AFL is *always* the outright best place to develop, but that's more with KPP in their youth.

I would be disappointed if both of them failed to get considerable chances in the Seniors over the course of the year. They both have, in their own ways, shown that they can, at times, absolutely match it at the level. But both players also had some relatively bad/anonymous moments too.

On them having a point of difference in the backline, I'd agree but argue that so does Atley. Experience for one, but his straight line speed (when utilised correctly) is a game breaker.

If they had shown consistent form last year that had them within spitting distance of Atley's, then I would be far more bullish potentially seeing Atley relegated to the VFL in favour of exposing players nearly a decade younger. But Kyron had a mixed season, and then disappeared with a 2 week knee that turned into a 2 monther. Flynn only played 3 games, and was barely a presence at all in his second. Atley meanwhile did what Atley does: play at a consistent, if not elite (or you could argue not even A-Grade), level for the entire year.

Slightly away from the main points of contention, but I also don't think Kyron should be seen as a potential direct replacement for Ats. I'm much more bullish on him as having considerable midfield and potentially forward rotations, and he was also looking incredibly promising in his debut when tagging Pendles. I also have no idea what we might see from Young. I'd have a genuine chuckle if he somehow made the round one squad but none of Atley, Kyron or Flynn did.
 

Waussie

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Nov 26, 2017
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On some of the most basic statistics (not a huge fan of using them, but the more 'simple' the statistic the less f***ery champion data can do to it) Kyron loses heavily to Atley

He had 4 games under 10 disposals. Atley had 1.
2 games of 15 or more disposals. Atley had 11.
4 games under 5 effective disposals. Atley had 0.
2 games over 10 effective disposals. Atley had 13

3 games of over 80% TOG. Atley had 1 game under 80.

Adjust the number of games played to Kyron playing a full season if you want, he still doesn't match Atley. Increased TOG also doesn't linearly scale to increased output. There's generally a reason that players have the TOG they have, and that's mostly (though certainly not all) related to their fitness. Sorry.

The post after this one quoted, which is deleted, is just a ******* abhorrant take.



Good and fair post. Absolutely there is a difference between the speed and skill level between AFL and VFL (and tbh it will become more disparate with the tinkerings to the VFL this year), but Kyron and Flynn will be 3rd and 2nd year players respectively this year (and have both missed large chunks of development through injury regardless) and I absolutely believe they have plenty to learn and gain from the VFL still. I also don't think the AFL is *always* the outright best place to develop, but that's more with KPP in their youth.

I would be disappointed if both of them failed to get considerable chances in the Seniors over the course of the year. They both have, in their own ways, shown that they can, at times, absolutely match it at the level. But both players also had some relatively bad/anonymous moments too.

On them having a point of difference in the backline, I'd agree but argue that so does Atley. Experience for one, but his straight line speed (when utilised correctly) is a game breaker.

If they had shown consistent form last year that had them within spitting distance of Atley's, then I would be far more bullish potentially seeing Atley relegated to the VFL in favour of exposing players nearly a decade younger. But Kyron had a mixed season, and then disappeared with a 2 week knee that turned into a 2 monther. Flynn only played 3 games, and was barely a presence at all in his second. Atley meanwhile did what Atley does: play at a consistent, if not elite (or you could argue not even A-Grade), level for the entire year.

Slightly away from the main points of contention, but I also don't think Kyron should be seen as a potential direct replacement for Ats. I'm much more bullish on him as having considerable midfield and potentially forward rotations, and he was also looking incredibly promising in his debut when tagging Pendles. I also have no idea what we might see from Young. I'd have a genuine chuckle if he somehow made the round one squad but none of Atley, Kyron or Flynn did.
Fair post and I agree with a lot of what you have said, but my point remains, if the clubs direction is the development of a squad capable off a 4-5 year tilt at the cup, in a backline that is the most senior area of our team, we should have a view to getting as much game time into these kids as possible, while that have that senior support.
I am not a play the kids at all costs, but you have to look at and plan for the future at the best possible opportunity. I would like to see a more mature head in the forwardline, but who🤷
As far as Kyron in the midfield, yep agree would like to see him there about's, but he did some really good lockdown jobs on solid forwards last year so I can see why he's there.
 

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7577969923

Premiership Player
Sep 20, 2018
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Well luckily for us your way of thinking - which has been the club's way of thinking for the past 4 years - is now well and truly over.

Your 'senior players have to be preferred' approach is what directly led to the abomination of a list we ended up with last year that needed drastic restructuring.

It's about getting the right demographic balance in the list and in the 22 we put out each week and we are now in a position to do that.

Going with the league's oldest backline in (which is what you are suggesting)

Atley Taz Corr
Lmac BMac JZ

would be a throwback to the Scott days and that wont be happening under Noble.

In fact under your approach J Walker would be considered 'a better player right now' than BMAc so he would slot into that position I assume?

We will be getting the mix right under Noble and we will all be thankful for that in 2-3 years time.
I think the seniority of the backline is a factor. If we were to play the back 6 above then all of Hayden, Perez, Young, and the new draftees are playing VFL. Apart from BMac that is not really development and you have two players that won't be there at all in two years. That is part of the reason I am not overly enthused about JZ going back.

Will those guys still develop in the VFL? Yes. Would they develop faster in the AFL? Probably. Although with Hayden I think the biggest issues he had in season 2020 were related to adjusting to the faster pace of AFL. In that case, more VFL time doesn't help him.

It will be really interesting to see the approach that Noble and Rawlings take in terms of playing young players versus older and perhaps slightly better now ones. After years under Scott of having a young list but consistently playing an old team it does feel like we are definitely having a change in philosophy.

In terms of the backline if they are all fit I think there are 4 locks: Taz, BMac, Corr, and LMAc. The other 2 or 3, depending on the make-up of the bench, come out of Atley, JZ, Perez, Hayden, Young, and Menadue. I would still like to see TT given a run of a half-back flank too.
 

7577969923

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Sep 20, 2018
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Fair post and I agree with a lot of what you have said, but my point remains, if the clubs direction is the development of a squad capable off a 4-5 year tilt at the cup, in a backline that is the most senior area of our team, we should have a view to getting as much game time into these kids as possible, while that have that senior support.
I am not a play the kids at all costs, but you have to look at and plan for the future at the best possible opportunity. I would like to see a more mature head in the forwardline, but who🤷
As far as Kyron in the midfield, yep agree would like to see him there about's, but he did some really good lockdown jobs on solid forwards last year so I can see why he's there.
Who is he taking a midfield spot off too? He is not getting a role ahead of any of Cunners, Simpkin, LDU, Jed, Phillips, or one or two others, and he doesn't strike me as a wingman. I think Hayden either makes it as a small backman or he probably doesn't make it.
 

Waussie

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Nov 26, 2017
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Who is he taking a midfield spot off too? He is not getting a role ahead of any of Cunners, Simpkin, LDU, Jed, Phillips, or one or two others, and he doesn't strike me as a wingman. I think Hayden either makes it as a small backman or he probably doesn't make it.
As I said, I would LIKE to see that, but I agree he has shown he can play in the backline. Not that he is pushing for a spot in the midfield.
 

The Anvil

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Dont think he's really stood out in the B&F either Snake, which is where team first roles and importance do get measured
Don't get me wrong I like the guy, but he's getting towards the bottom of best 22,especially as the club will want to see which of the year 2-3 players are going to make it. He's 29 and he has to display more IMO
Top 10 finish in the Syd Barker in 3 of the last 4 seasons, doesn’t say bottom of the best 22 there.


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Devington

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10th in 2019 and 10th in 2017, my bad on 2020 but still high enough regardless. Was he 11th or 12th?

End of the day, got the maths wrong but the point is still correct which is nowhere near bottom 22.


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Votes per game is probably a better metric, but that would be an utter bastard to find I suspect.

I know we did some breakdowns of this year's votes in the B&F thread, and probably in the other year's threads, but I don't think there's any official resource that records them anywhere.
 

The Anvil

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To illustrate the flawed logic of replacing a senior player with a younger one, simply because the younger one looks like they *might* end up better than the older.
Also there are several posters that don't think JZ or Polec have a spot in the 22.

Right now Atley is the better player. More durable, more experienced, and much more consistent. That might change next year, maybe even over the course of this year, and there's even an outside chance Kyron absolutely demolishes this pre season and eclipses Shaun. But based on last year's showing, right now Kyron is still the lesser player.

We completely reshaped the list at the end of last season, vastly changing the age demographics. The squad demographics will reflect that, and increasingly more so over time. This year we'll also actually have access to a proper development league, rather than those bullshit scratch matches we saw last year. There's no shame in the younger players ironing out their weaknesses in the VFL.
Some good points here.

You want your list management to build a healthy list in terms of long term sustainability.

When that is done you want your coaching staff to get all players firing at their best and let them fight it out for the best 22.

I saw Hayden at training, and he looked very good, so did Atley.

I don’t care who is in, as long as it’s the best 22 of what players showcased in the preseason. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Atley in the front half which sort of makes all these debates a little pointless.

Spread your kids out amongst your experienced heads, it’s not rocket science this game of footy.


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7577969923

Premiership Player
Sep 20, 2018
4,230
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10th in 2019 and 10th in 2017, my bad on 2020 but still high enough regardless. Was he 11th or 12th?

End of the day, got the maths wrong but the point is still correct which is nowhere near bottom 22.


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I think the talk of Atley being bottom 6 in our best 22 is a good thing. It signals that people have faith in the capacity of our young guns to really step up and put pressure on some of these older middle rung guys. If he doesn't improve from the last year or two then I hope he is struggling to hold his place.
 

The Anvil

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Votes per game is probably a better metric, but that would be an utter bastard to find I suspect.

I know we did some breakdowns of this year's votes in the B&F thread, and probably in the other year's threads, but I don't think there's any official resource that records them anywhere.
Yeah, I also gave it a go and realized I wasn’t committed enough to keep searching.


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The Anvil

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I think the talk of Atley being bottom 6 in our best 22 is a good thing. It signals that people have faith in the capacity of our young guns to really step up and put pressure on some of these older middle rung guys. If he doesn't improve from the last year or two then I hope he is struggling to hold his place.
Internal pressure for spots makes for good teams so happy with that happening (and it probably is).

I don’t think he is bottom 6 without significant improvement from others though.

We know what we’ll get with Atley, the others might be good but they might be the next Kieran Harper too. We just don’t know yet.


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