Bluemour Season Blast Off Edition XXXIII
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zeggie
You can't kick goals when you're unconscious.
I saw tonnes of rumours about Tim "Clarko" Clarke actually. The ITKs were right on the money.
In regards to leaks can I just say to our ITKs that it’s great that all the opposition clubs, malevolent journos and Facebook teenagers aren’t getting them from here anymore.
But, y’know, it’s still ok to share with us good guys and gals who know how to keep stuff secret. OK?
But, y’know, it’s still ok to share with us good guys and gals who know how to keep stuff secret. OK?
morningbrown
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- Mar 9, 2021
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Don't know why people want to play hardball with the Cerra deal, or even walk away from it in some posters' opinions. What evidence do we have recently of any ability to develop our own talent? A talented, experienced 21 year old mid is right there for the taking. You overpay slightly and reap the rewards of bullets inside 50 for the next 10 years.
Recruitment and coaching has completely changed... If you aren't willing to walk away from a negotiation you aren't in a negotiation. We can't keep giving away draft picks.
Edit* I'm happy to give pick 6 but that is it (thought that was implied in my post, my bad)
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morningbrown
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Pick 6 becomes pick 8 after academy bids, and there's a good 5 or so guns at the top of the draft. If Cerra was eligible he'd be in that group this year. Don't know what the point of wasting 3 or 4 years stuffing some kid up is when there's a sure thing sitting right there who wants to play for us.
Giving pick 6 for Cerra isn’t giving away draft picks it’s actually incredibly good trading with a bit of luck thrown in
Hand over pick 6. We have the upper hand, we don't have to give up anything else.
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I wonder why that is
Not opposed to giving up pick 6. I am against giving up any other pick with pick 6. We can't be entering the draft in the 40's every other year.
Crippablues
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If you were a freo fan you'd be asking for more than pick 6, that is a guarantee and so would I.
You don't have to win every trade nor can you
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Kings of Lygon
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That's extremely debatable.
Fogarty trade B- I think the trade was decent and I like Fogarty. We shall see.
Saad trade F Over-paid when we didn't have to, Saad is a good player but you don't pay premium picks for small defenders. Poor trade and he got worked over.
Williams (FA) F Paying an unfit, medium defender A-grade midfielder money on a whim he could play midfield which he cannot. Dog s**t.
Hewett (FA) B+/A- Yet to play obviously, but he's a great addition on the correct wage. Potential to be an A+ deal but hard to say now.
It's early in this trade period, but if he accepts a pick in the 50s for SPS and/or gets done over by media pressure on Cerra... well, he perhaps should have been part of the clean out along with Liddle and co. I'm happy to see how he goes and I want him to succeed, but there's a fair few of us who think he isn't doing all that fine so far. Hopefully he changes our minds.
Well good thing I'm not a Freo supporter and another good thing is Cerra isn't contracted.
Nothing wrong with asking, hopefully we hold our ground. Pick 6 can get Cerra to Carlton one way or another.
We’ve got to get the perception right , Adam Cerra is an un contracted AFL player. Whatever compensation we give to Fremantle is on principle and in good faith.
He has perceived value only in his current status, we all shake a hand on it and accept it , but let’s not be bullied by hysterical media hype generated to the satiated the ferals.
He has perceived value only in his current status, we all shake a hand on it and accept it , but let’s not be bullied by hysterical media hype generated to the satiated the ferals.
Team DJ
Norm Smith Medallist
Over half of this year's potential draftees have played less than 10 games of Footy in 2 years.
Kids will get drafted off of thier under 16 season.
This is absolutley the year to trade out of the draft for known quantity players, then have a shot at the stumps with picks in the 30s or higher. Because in this year's draft class (Horne Francis aside) you can be no more certain that pick 6 will be any better than pick 56.
This ain't the season for hardball. It's the season to aggressively trade.
Kids will get drafted off of thier under 16 season.
This is absolutley the year to trade out of the draft for known quantity players, then have a shot at the stumps with picks in the 30s or higher. Because in this year's draft class (Horne Francis aside) you can be no more certain that pick 6 will be any better than pick 56.
This ain't the season for hardball. It's the season to aggressively trade.
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Good luck with that thinking BM.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Re Carlton's trading history, I CBF going into a deal-by-deal breakdown, but I think posters need to think about the reasons why players leave clubs in order to consider the buy low, sell high ideal.
Sell high? Clubs don't proactively sell off their best players for picks/players.
Buy low? Players rarely leave for no reason, especially the good ones. There is usually a trigger. Often that trigger is both an opportunity and a risk.
Fringe player# - For: Player may be better at new club if given more opportunity, Con: Player simply may not be good enough for best 22
Injury history# - For: IF player gets over injuries, could be a bargain pickup. Con: If not, could be a bust
Chasing $$$ - For: Probably a good player if there is competition for signature, Con: You'll be paying top dollar as players rarely move for same/similar pay
Out of favour with club/coach* - For: Change of scenery could see player flourish, Con: Player (attitude) might be the problem
Salary cap squeeze* - For: Nothing actually wrong with the player, Con: ??? Those seeking the most aggressive contracts will be the ones pushed out??
List balance* - For: Not actually anything wrong with the player, more an issue with the club, Con: Clubs usually trade the weakest in that position, not the best
Chasing success* - For: Player leaving for 'right reasons', player may want club more desperately than vice versa, Con: Can backfire if club doesn't deliver success
Playing out of position# - For: May be untapped potential/upside if player used differently, Con: Often there is a reason why player not playing in preferred role
Moving interstate/homesickness - For: Can be unrelated to ability, Con: Coming back to Vic means lots of suitors. Balance flipped for interstate teams.
You're going to get the best deals when the outgoing club doesn't really want to keep the player (but these are the riskiest trades). And you'll pay the most when the club would rather keep the player (the safest trades). Basically good players are expensive, speculative players are cheap.
On top of the reasons for leaving, it comes down to contract status, how well the clubs negotiate, what picks they have available, etc.
One final thought. Some posters go on about we should have gone after this player, we should have gone after that (I'm guilty of this). But you're not going to get them all, and it's not so simple. Over the past 5 years, an average of 9 players have moved in free agency (and half of those DFA). An average of 29 players have been traded. So, basically each club is looking at an FA once every 4 years, a DFA once every four years and ~1.5 players traded in and out each year.
* These would be my choices of where the best deals are found. They are the ones where the player is the most motivated to leave and/or the clubs have the least leverage.
# These provide opportunities for great returns, but you'd need superior talent identification, development and/or medical staff to extract 'value' consistently.
TL-DR; Buy-low, sell high is not so easy. Clubs rarely get rid of good players. And when they do, they are expensive. There are bargains out there, but they are risky. The best deals depend on the motivation and leverage of the player, old club and new club.
Sell high? Clubs don't proactively sell off their best players for picks/players.
Buy low? Players rarely leave for no reason, especially the good ones. There is usually a trigger. Often that trigger is both an opportunity and a risk.
Fringe player# - For: Player may be better at new club if given more opportunity, Con: Player simply may not be good enough for best 22
Injury history# - For: IF player gets over injuries, could be a bargain pickup. Con: If not, could be a bust
Chasing $$$ - For: Probably a good player if there is competition for signature, Con: You'll be paying top dollar as players rarely move for same/similar pay
Out of favour with club/coach* - For: Change of scenery could see player flourish, Con: Player (attitude) might be the problem
Salary cap squeeze* - For: Nothing actually wrong with the player, Con: ??? Those seeking the most aggressive contracts will be the ones pushed out??
List balance* - For: Not actually anything wrong with the player, more an issue with the club, Con: Clubs usually trade the weakest in that position, not the best
Chasing success* - For: Player leaving for 'right reasons', player may want club more desperately than vice versa, Con: Can backfire if club doesn't deliver success
Playing out of position# - For: May be untapped potential/upside if player used differently, Con: Often there is a reason why player not playing in preferred role
Moving interstate/homesickness - For: Can be unrelated to ability, Con: Coming back to Vic means lots of suitors. Balance flipped for interstate teams.
You're going to get the best deals when the outgoing club doesn't really want to keep the player (but these are the riskiest trades). And you'll pay the most when the club would rather keep the player (the safest trades). Basically good players are expensive, speculative players are cheap.
On top of the reasons for leaving, it comes down to contract status, how well the clubs negotiate, what picks they have available, etc.
One final thought. Some posters go on about we should have gone after this player, we should have gone after that (I'm guilty of this). But you're not going to get them all, and it's not so simple. Over the past 5 years, an average of 9 players have moved in free agency (and half of those DFA). An average of 29 players have been traded. So, basically each club is looking at an FA once every 4 years, a DFA once every four years and ~1.5 players traded in and out each year.
* These would be my choices of where the best deals are found. They are the ones where the player is the most motivated to leave and/or the clubs have the least leverage.
# These provide opportunities for great returns, but you'd need superior talent identification, development and/or medical staff to extract 'value' consistently.
TL-DR; Buy-low, sell high is not so easy. Clubs rarely get rid of good players. And when they do, they are expensive. There are bargains out there, but they are risky. The best deals depend on the motivation and leverage of the player, old club and new club.
BrisbaneCFC
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This. This year's draft is a massive crap shoot. The best players in this year's draft are, just as likely to be picks 46 and 53 as opposed to a top 5 pick.
Anyone who has been around a football club (even club footy) will know you need the get the right mix of assistant coaches and they need to get along.
I'm sure we've all seen the alpha-dog assistant coach who says too much or doesn't 'stay in his lane' (to use a trendy term).
If you got the five best credentialed assistant coaches and put them at one club - I'm not sure how successful that would be ???
That makes the 2nd or 3rd round pick in addition to pick 6, we give away for Cerra more valuable. This is the year picks in the 30s and 40s are more likely to rapidly develop and become top 10 in their draft.
Cerra, SPS both uncontracted top 10 picks compare the negotiation tactics of Carlton and Freo
Gerard Healy just saying on 3AW that Tim Clarke is a 'huge' pickup - very highly rated.
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Yes, if I was a Freo fan I’d be asking for more, but if I was a Freo fan and my club let Cerra go for nothing, when pick 6 was on the table, I’d lose it.
Its in the sweet spot, where it’s not high enough to be happy, but it’s too high to make a stand.
Magical_EddieBetts
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So we would give them 6 and 25 and get Cerra and 27 back?
Yeah, I’m ok with that.
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