Brazilian Election October 2022

Remove this Banner Ad

spinynorman

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 1, 2014
5,003
9,566
Sydney
AFL Club
Richmond
The second largest democracy in the Americas is going to the polls, although the incumbent certainly doesn't seem like he wishes it was.

The conviction of Lula, the historically popular Workers' Party President from 2002 to 2010, ruled him out of the 2018 election and allowed Bolsonaro's path to power. It has since been found that this conviction was unlawful and it has been overturned, leaving Lula to now run against Bolsonaro's second term and leading in the polls.

Bolsonaro's reelection is in big trouble. No poll this year has found him getting more than 41% of the vote in a second round face-off against Lula. He has reacted by claiming there are legitimacy issues with Brazil's electoral system, saying they need to overhaul electronic voting to bring in paper voting. He has said any election result without this reform would be illegitimate, that he won't accept defeat and that he'll consider a military coup if he's found to have lost. He has consistently praised the military dictatorship of the 1960s to 1980s, but there's reasons to be sceptical about the appetite for a coup outside of himself - his unusual decision to be critical of both Biden and Xi leaves him globally isolated.

Does Bolsonaro have another trick up his sleeve? Will Brazil return to normality after its six years of disruption following Dilma's impeachment?

Either way, it's not hard to read what she feels about Bolsonaro.

 
Bolsonaro has already set the tone for lunatics by stating "Only God can remove me from leading the country"
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Lula will win the election, and convincingly. Yeah Bolsonaro has had criticisms of Biden, but that really doesn't matter. Having tried and failed to sideline Lula forever previously both personally and then through what they put Roussef through, have no doubt the US will be backing fascist adjacent elements in the military to pull a coup at the first crisis presented to them.

Lula as president was quite a bit more moderate than where his real allegiances lay, and we know how the US feels about left wing governments in their backyard, which they perceive as their own property. He will chart a much more left path once back in power, think Evo Morales in Bolivia or Manuel Zelaya in the Honduras. The US had both of those guys removed and their countries are much less significant than Brazil to the US. Take it to the bank, The septics will not tolerate a socialist Brazil. Only a matter of time how long it takes them to make their move.
 
After the Brazilian election all of Brazil, Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, Honduras, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, Chile and Guyana will be led by parties and presidents of the left identifying with the so-called 'Pink tide' or 'Socialism of the 21st century trend' first spoken about in the early 00s. Argentina is also led by a left government, but it's more of a social democratic set up that would probably line up with the US if push came to shove.

The US has been majorly in the shits with Mexico since they elected their last government but it is literally too close to home for them to move. My best guess is that once Lula has been elected they will use the fraternal relations his government establishes with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to make a move via reactionary generals in the Brazilian military. Obviously we know how the US feel about Cuba and Maduro's Venezuela but they've been making louder and louder noises about Ortega in Nicaragua over the last year or so too.

Their other angle of attack will be the re-activation of Brazil's role in the economic BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa, India) - Though it will probably be more accurately BRCS as India under Modi is a strong US ally, aside from taking advantage of the now cheap Russian fuel imports. They'll be painted as a dangerous part of some bullshit axis of evil with Russia, as well as China as they make common sense moves to open up trade with them again. Their relations with North Korea and Iran will be drawn in somehow too as if they matter.
 
For the interested but ignorant like myself, what is the recent timeline of leadership changes?
Lula served two terms, Rousseff served one and a half terms before being impeached, Temer served out the remainder of Rousseff's second term (and undid several of her and Lula's policies), Bolsonaro elected in 2018.
 
One of the key issues, from an international perspective, is the fate of the Amazon, which a study has found large parts of may never recover.

As the article notes, during Lula's tenure as President in the 2000s, deforestation fell by more than 80%.
 

Polls show Lula could win this in the first round, no need for a run off. It would be a pretty spectacular rejection of the Brazilian right.
 

Polls show Lula could win this in the first round, no need for a run off. It would be a pretty spectacular rejection of the Brazilian right.

In almost every way this is a boring, predictable election, with the one thing that's unpredictable and interesting being how will Bolsonaro respond to what's either this round or the next going to be an absolute demolition.
 
Bolsonaro heavily outperforming polls, but with this caveat:

View attachment 1524594

Now with over 90% counted (well done Brazil for having such a fast, well organised count!), it appears Lula will finish ahead but short of the 50+% to avoid the runoff.

It looks like the variation from the poll is that the minor candidates underperformed and their numbers peeled away to Bolsonaro at the end, which could be a problem if that speaks to where their support goes in the second round vote.
 
It looks like the variation from the poll is that the minor candidates underperformed and their numbers peeled away to Bolsonaro at the end, which could be a problem if that speaks to where their support goes in the second round vote.
Lula at 48%, fellow leftist Ciro Gomes has 3%. Obviously Lula won't get all the Gomes voters, but you'd think the overwhelming majority of them would vote for him. That itself should be enough, even before considering how centrist candidate votes break.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Lula at 48%, fellow leftist Ciro Gomes has 3%. Obviously Lula won't get all the Gomes voters, but you'd think the overwhelming majority of them would vote for him. That itself should be enough, even before considering how centrist candidate votes break.
Fingers crossed. Bolsonaro does have the 'full fascist' option of a military coup.
 
Weird choice of a story to tell in the middle of an election campaign.



Now leading to these very compelling pop-up ads online throughout Brazil, that I'm sure is exactly where the Bolsonaro campaign wants to be.

FfNe9qBXkAEOoV4
 
Second round voting is today.

Bolsonaro is now polling substantially better than he had been, and while polls predict a Lula victory, it's significantly closer than it had previously been thought.

Irrespective of the result (and fallout), Bolsonarismo is clearly not dead in Brazil. That he's still polling so competitively despite the horror final week of the campaign (a former Congressman whose a political ally and who Bolsonaro's son worked for shot and threw a grenade at policy; a plan to cut wages was revealed) says something about the steadfastness of the support of his project in Brazil.

Two good pieces of English language analysis can be found here and here.
 
Bolsonaro always has an early lead due to the districts that report results first. But now with 82% counted, Lula is leading, and it would be a surprise for Bolsonaro to win from here I reckon.

Santa Catarina lags a little but yes, looks like Lula will win.

Brazilian highway patrol undertook traffic stops across the northeast on the day, artificially creating enormous three hour traffic jams. There must be some nerves given their willingness to pull this stunt (and given how it's looking reasonably close), surely it's an enormously strong chance Bolsonaro doesn't accept the result.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top