BrownlowGuru
Debutant
Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.
I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 9 years).
Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Goldstein, Gaff) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.
WIN
Fyfe N (Fre) 2.628
Goldstein T (Kang) 4.426
Gaff A (WCE) 10.56
Hannebery D (Syd) 11.23
Priddis M (WCE) 13.77
Mitchell S (Haw) 13.84
Dangerfield P (Adel) 56.82
Mundy D (Fre) 63.85
Kennedy J (Syd) 76.82
Martin D (Rich) 133.9
Pendlebury S (Coll) 234.4
Gray R (Pt A) 361.0
All others > 1000
PLACE (top 3)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.356
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.730
Hannebery D (Syd) 2.884
Mitchell S (Haw) 3.195
Gaff A (WCE) 3.481
Priddis M (WCE) 3.496
Dangerfield P (Adel) 9.334
Kennedy J (Syd) 10.681
Mundy D (Fre) 12.103
Martin D (Rich) 19.784
Pendlebury S (Coll) 26.826
Gray R (Pt A) 41.500
Armitage D (St K) 57.749
Jones N (Melb) 118.727
Swan D (Coll) 205.135
Neale L (Fre) 250.819
Cotchin T (Rich) 329.166
Steven J (St K) 330.948
Wallis M (WB) 343.161
Boak T (Pt A) 360.697
All others > 500
PLACE (top 5)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.134
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.295
Hannebery D (Syd) 1.730
Mitchell S (Haw) 1.799
Priddis M (WCE) 2.017
Gaff A (WCE) 2.223
Dangerfield P (Adel) 3.876
Kennedy J (Syd) 4.230
Mundy D (Fre) 5.055
Martin D (Rich) 7.169
Pendlebury S (Coll) 8.652
Gray R (Pt A) 12.978
Armitage D (St K) 16.186
Jones N (Melb) 29.017
Swan D (Coll) 51.513
Neale L (Fre) 66.449
Cotchin T (Rich) 68.399
Boak T (Pt A) 70.213
Wallis M (WB) 78.458
Steven J (St K) 84.061
Ward C (GWS) 119.677
Ellis B (Rich) 121.066
Jacobs S (Adel) 201.641
Mitchell T (Syd) 221.965
All others > 250
I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 9 years).
Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Goldstein, Gaff) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.
WIN
Fyfe N (Fre) 2.628
Goldstein T (Kang) 4.426
Gaff A (WCE) 10.56
Hannebery D (Syd) 11.23
Priddis M (WCE) 13.77
Mitchell S (Haw) 13.84
Dangerfield P (Adel) 56.82
Mundy D (Fre) 63.85
Kennedy J (Syd) 76.82
Martin D (Rich) 133.9
Pendlebury S (Coll) 234.4
Gray R (Pt A) 361.0
All others > 1000
PLACE (top 3)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.356
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.730
Hannebery D (Syd) 2.884
Mitchell S (Haw) 3.195
Gaff A (WCE) 3.481
Priddis M (WCE) 3.496
Dangerfield P (Adel) 9.334
Kennedy J (Syd) 10.681
Mundy D (Fre) 12.103
Martin D (Rich) 19.784
Pendlebury S (Coll) 26.826
Gray R (Pt A) 41.500
Armitage D (St K) 57.749
Jones N (Melb) 118.727
Swan D (Coll) 205.135
Neale L (Fre) 250.819
Cotchin T (Rich) 329.166
Steven J (St K) 330.948
Wallis M (WB) 343.161
Boak T (Pt A) 360.697
All others > 500
PLACE (top 5)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.134
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.295
Hannebery D (Syd) 1.730
Mitchell S (Haw) 1.799
Priddis M (WCE) 2.017
Gaff A (WCE) 2.223
Dangerfield P (Adel) 3.876
Kennedy J (Syd) 4.230
Mundy D (Fre) 5.055
Martin D (Rich) 7.169
Pendlebury S (Coll) 8.652
Gray R (Pt A) 12.978
Armitage D (St K) 16.186
Jones N (Melb) 29.017
Swan D (Coll) 51.513
Neale L (Fre) 66.449
Cotchin T (Rich) 68.399
Boak T (Pt A) 70.213
Wallis M (WB) 78.458
Steven J (St K) 84.061
Ward C (GWS) 119.677
Ellis B (Rich) 121.066
Jacobs S (Adel) 201.641
Mitchell T (Syd) 221.965
All others > 250