Building a Premiership Team (and how it doesn't happen overnight)

[Ben the Gooner]

There seems to be a lot of negativity around at the moment, and a lot of it is borne out of inflated expectations. To illustrate where we are at currently, I thought it'd be worthwhile to look at how the Collingwood premiership squad was built. The players I considered to be important to their win are the 23 who played in the Grand Finals:

Leon Davis, Alan Didak, Nick Maxwell, Tyson Goldsack, Harry O'Brien, Scott Pendlebury, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas, Leigh Brown, Nathan Brown, Dayne Beams, Darren Jolly, Ben Reid, Sharrod Wellingham, Steele Sidebottom, Ben Johnson, Brent McCaffer, Chris Dawes, Travis Cloke, Alan Toovey, Dane Swan, Heath Shaw, Jarryd Blair

Plus some important players who were either injured or not selected:

Paul Medhurst, John Anthony, Shane O'Bree, Tarkyn Lockyer, Josh Fraser, Brad Dick, Simon Prestigiacomo

The rest of their list weren't really relevant to the premiership.

So there's 30 players who they needed to recruit at some point.

Any players who were still at the club from drafts prior to 2000 were just the old guys who were good enough to last 10+ seasons - every club has them, and where they were drafted isn't really relevant. These guys were:

Leon Davis, Ben Johnson, Shane O'Bree, Tarkyn Lockyer, Josh Fraser, Simon Prestigiacomo

2000 - 15th
Alan Didak - pick 3

2001 - 9th
Dane Swan - pick 58

2002 - 4th (H&A) --> 2nd
Finals:
QF: Collingwood d Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium)
PF: Collingwood d Adelaide (MCG)
GF: Brisbane d Collingwood (MCG)

Nick Maxwell - pick 15 (rookie)

2003 - 2nd (H&A) --> 2nd
Finals:
QF: Collingwood d Brisbane (MCG)
PF: Collingwood d Port Adelaide (MCG)
GF: Brisbane d Collingwood (MCG)

Heath Shaw - pick 48 (F/S)

2004 - 13th

Travis Cloke - pick 39 (F/S)
Harry O'Brien - pick 20 (rookie)
(Nick Maxwell rookie elevation)

So 5 years away from their premiership season, the Pies had 12/30 key players on their list, and a bit of finals experience for some of those guys. From here on, the list starts to take shape.

2005 - 15th

Dale Thomas - pick 2
Scott Pendlebury - pick 5
John Anthony - pick 37
Alan Toovey - pick 2 (rookie)

The Pies kept doing what they had been doing in the past, nailing 1-2 picks per year here, but they made the most of their early first rounders, picking up 2 stars. Now the finals experience appears.

2006 - 5th (H&A) --> 7th
Finals:
QF: Western Bulldogs d Collingwood (MCG)

Paul Medhurst (traded with pick 8 for Chris Tarrant)
Ben Reid - pick 8
Nathan Brown - pick 10
Chris Dawes - pick 28
Brad Dick - pick 44
Tyson Goldsack - pick 63
Sharrod Wellingham - pick 10 (rookie)
Brent Macaffer - pick 26 (rookie)
(Alan Toovey rookie elevation)
(Harry O'Brien rookie elevation)

3 non-premiership seasons left, and 24/30 are on the list now.

2007 - 6th (H&A) --> 4th
Finals:
QF: Collingwood d Sydney (MCG)
SF: Collingwood d West Coast (Subiaco) (aet)
PF: Geelong d Collingwood (MCG)

no players added

2008 - 8th (H&A) --> 6th
Finals:
QF: Collingwood d Adelaide (AAMI)
SF: St Kilda d Collingwood (MCG)

Steele Sidebottom - pick 11
Dayne Beams - pick 29
Leigh Brown - pick 73
Jarryd Blair - pick 27 (rookie)
(Sharrod Wellingham rookie elevation)
(Brent Macaffer rookie elevation)

2009 - 4th (H&A) --> 4th
Finals:
QF: St Kilda d Collingwood (MCG)
SF: Collingwood d Adelaide (MCG)
PF: Geelong d Collingwood (MCG)

Darren Jolly (traded for pick 14 and 46)
Luke Ball - pick 30

So that's how a premiership team was built. 12/30 players had a full 5 years on the list with the Pies before the premiership year. 24/30 were on the list by 3 years before. 9 finals were played in the 4 years before the premiership year.

So how does our list stack up? Let's assume for argument's sake that we're looking towards a flag in the next 2-5 years (2013-2016)

Our senior players are Dustin Fletcher, David Hille, Mark McVeigh, Andrew Welsh, Nathan Lovett-Murray and Mark Williams. You'd say somewhere between 1-4 of those guys will be in our best 30 in a premiership tilt in those years. Averaging that out, let's say that Dustin Fletcher and David Hille are the two.

Looking at a best case scenario of 2013, we'd want 12/30 players on the list by the end of the 2007 draft and trading period.

You'd say that (barring injuries) Jason Winderlich, Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton, Paddy Ryder, Courtenay Dempsey, Sam Lonergan, Heath Hocking, Leroy Jetta, Tayte Pears, Cale Hooker and Tom Bellchambers are certainties to be in that squad of 30.

So we have 14/30 on the list 5 years beforehand.

Then you have the other guys still on the list from that period: Ricky Dyson, Angus Monfries, Henry Slattery, Jay Neagle, Scott Gumbleton, Alwyn Davey, Kyle Reimers, David Myers, Darcy Daniher, Michael Quinn.

From that list, you'd say 3-7 would probably be the range of players who'd still be around and in the best 30 in 2013. Let's call it 5 on average, and make those names Slattery, Gumbleton, Myers, Reimers and Monfries.

So we've got 19 on the list 5 years before, 7 ahead of Collingwood. However, Collingwood went ballistic over the next two years, adding 12 players. From our 2008-9 drafts, 12 players would be practically everyone left including guys like T Slattery and Silverlock. That won't happen.

The next year Collingwood picked up two early pick superstars, and we picked up one in 2008 - Michael Hurley.

The rest of our 2008-09 reads David Zaharakis, Brent Prismall, Tyson Slattery, Jake Melksham, Jake Carlisle, Travis Colyer, Anthony Long, Stewart Crameri, Kyle Hardingham, Taite Silverlock.

5-8 looks like the range here, so let's say 6 on average.

Zaharakis, Melksham, Hardingham, Crameri, Colyer and Carlisle look the most likely there.

So we have 25/30 on the list with a full 3 seasons before our assault. Collingwood had 24/30 by comparison.

The differences: Collingwood had three superstars on their list (Swan, Pendlebury and Thomas) on their list at that point, and at this stage we only have two (Watson, Hurley). Collingwood played 8 finals in the next 3 years. We've played 1 in 2.

2010 netted us Dyson Heppell plus a bunch of question marks. So we have our three superstars, we have the nucleus of our 30 man squad. What's missing?

- Finals experience. Collingwood played in 2 prelims, 3 semis and 4 qualifying/elimination finals in a four year period. We have one elimination final.
- Time together as a team. The core of the Collingwood team was assembled by the end of the 2006 draft, and played three full, successful seasons together. Two of our three superstar players have 48 games between them.
- Niche recruiting. Collingwood identified their rucks and inside midfield as an issue and went after Brown, Ball and Jolly. We still need to recruit some ready made players to fill gaps in our team.

tl;dr - we're tracking along nicely, but we're still a two or three years of development away from being able to have a realistic crack at a flag. Be patient, and enjoy watching the team coming together.

 

[raskolnikov]

Good post. I would include Tayte Pears as a potential superstar.

 

[Childish Gambino]

Top post, Ben.

Don't think Fletcher will be around in 2013 onwards though.

Agree with most of what you're saying. It would almost been better if we didn't have such a good start to the season and expectations didn't get as high as they were. You can't help feel a little disappointed, especially considering the quality of the teams from 5th-12th.

We've got a long way to go and at least we're unearthing some potential premiership players like Hardingham, Hibberd and Crameri.

 

[eth-dog]

Great post mate. Couldn't agree more

 

[Kong]

Nice post.

Would probably disagree on a few players, but it could go either way, and overall I think you're pretty spot on.

The research behind this is fascinating, too.

We really need te groups from 2005-2009 to start standing up consistently, too.

It'd be an understatement for me to say I'm eager to see how the Hird Regime manipulates the list through the drafts and trade week this year.

It could be the most significant alteration in a long, long time.

 

[Nasty Penguin]

Great post. Really puts some perspective on the current state of the list and where it needs to be going.
The trade period this year will be extremely interesting just hope we dont get another Williams type liability.

 

[GoldenboyHird_5]

Awesome post Ben.

Just a few things though:

- Collingwood didn't have to deal with a series of compromised drafts like we will have to.

- Personally their ability to get TWO first round selections, let alone 2 Top 5 picks, in the SAME year was a significant turning point in their recruitment strategy. You're basically getting an extra year's head start on the other clubs when you get that Priority pick before the 1st Round, in a strong draft, like Collingwood did that year.

Would like to see you do a similar analysis with the Carlton list too. Would reveal a little more considering our paths have been constantly linked.

 

[Skeeta Olly]

While like Whomb, I may disagree on a few players, the point of this is you don't build premiership teams over a few years with half of your list with minimal experience.The problem with a lot of people can be summed up like this:

1. Youth/Experience
2. Expectations

Take a look at the players Collingwood drafted pre-2006: Didak (28 years old, 193 games), Swan (27, 161), Maxwell (28, 148), Shaw (25, 126), Cloke (24, 135), O'Brien (24, 122), Thomas (24, 121), Pendlebury (23, 113) and Toovey (24, 77). No doubt all of those players are a core component of the Collingwood team all the way from defenders, to midfielders to forwards.

Of our team, there are 10 players with 100+ games experience. There are 15 on Collingwoods list. While yes, that isn't a massive difference as we have 3 players in the 90's which would bring us closer, it's the age which is the problem. Of those, only 3 would be a chance at our next premiership IMO. Fletcher, Hille and McVeigh are aging, NLM, Welsh and Williams our outside the best 22 and Monfries is borderline.

That leaves Watson, Ryder and Stanton of which people want to trade 1 or 2 of them. Stanton will never be A grade so lets ship him off for some draft picks or young kid from another club. Ryder has hit some poor form, lets send him home with Jetta for another young gun. You don't get anywhere doing this.

Players like Bellchambers, Colyer, Crameri, Gumbleton, Hardingham, Heppell, Hibberd, Hooker, Howlett, Hurley, Melksham, Myers, Pears, Reimers and Zaharakis all have under 50 games of experience. There's a lot to work with there, but it's going to take a few seasons at least.

Brings me to people's expectations. With such a young group you can't expect miracles. We had a Hollywood start to the season and I think the past few weeks have hit some hard due to unrealistic expectations. Lots of people have this expectation with a new coaching panel that we're going to go from the bottom four to the top 4 in one season. As much as coaches set up game plans etc, it's up to the players to execute it and we have close to the same list as last season.

My main points being, don't axe your experience, it's not all about youth and start being realistic.

 

[Skeeta Olly]

You'll also notice from Ben's analysis, not once did Collingwood trade for a young player and when they did trade an experienced one, they got an experienced player in return.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

^^ They traded for third year ruckman Cameron Wood, but that backfired.

- Personally their ability to get TWO first round selections, let alone 2 Top 5 picks, in the SAME year was a significant turning point in their recruitment strategy. You're basically getting an extra year's head start on the other clubs when you get that Priority pick before the 1st Round, in a strong draft, like Collingwood did that year.

I don't think it was that significant. 2004 they drafted Chris Egan, and 2007 they traded their first pick for Cameron Wood. So the net result of 2004-2007 was 1 senior player traded out, and 4 first rounders out of 6 nailed. 4/6 first rounders isn't unattainable, especially after Dodoro's last three efforts.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

This feels like a similar thread created when the great Matthew Knights started 3 years ago... and another in the midst of all his pain

I'm pretty sure that most other clubs have talked in a similar fashion over the past 10 years. The reality is only 1 club can win a flag and only 2-3 challenge each year.

We haven't been one of the 2-3 since 01. 10 years, not good enough.

The longer we keep making the "it'll take time" excuse, the longer we'll go interstate and get flogged, the longer we'll lose games to sides with no talent but a point to prove... the longer we'll go with good wins at Etihad and so so performances in windy tough conditions.

Harden the **** up EFC.

This is a results driven business. A win at all costs attitude must permeate through the club on every level.

NO MORE BULLSHIT INTERSTATE FIRST QUARTERS. IT STOPS NOW.

It starts with a win against North and the season back on track and finals action. Nothing less than that should be tolerated. Careers should be on line and everyone should be put on notice.

The honeymoon is over bitches. You owe your members!

 

[Kong]

"A win at all costs attitude".

Okay Lloyd, Lucas, Johnson, Johnson, Solly, Rama, McVeigh, Welsh, Michael, Fletcher: we're gonna build our side around you. Hirdy, I know you're coaching, but we're gonna get you to chuck on the jumper again.

You might be out on your feet and half crippled by the end of the year, let alone in two or three, leaving a gaping hole from the lack of opportunity given to Hurley, Gumbleton, Watson, Myers, Hibberd, Heppell, Hardingham, Hocking, Pears, Hooker and Melksham, but:

This is win at all costs. Now. Harden the **** up.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

The only problem with this is in this timeframe, we're going to run into the inevitable GC/GWS premiership windows.

Which is what happened last time. So I don't think that the urgency felt by some fans is totally irrational.

 

[stugots]

good post BTG - when it all comes together it can appear almost effortless & seamless but as your post helps illustrates, it takes time & patience + a bit of luck/skill in nailing those out of the blue selections

that said there are several on the list now that are deadwood & possies need to be freed up this year - if that delays our finals expectations a year or so well tough T**ty, its my belief we cannot get past these annual form dropoffs until this is done.

 

[Here_we_come]

Great OP.

And I must admit I feel better after having read it.

My only concern is that I don't think it's as simple as assessing the number of players coming through the drafts, even if that ratio of players the OP mentioned actually ends up making it.

I think it has more to do with the quality of those players, and their positions. So at the moment, it's safe to say that Heppell, Hurley, and maybe Pears are in the upper echelon of players in their age groups. If they stay that way for the remainder of their careers it will put us in a good position for a tilt at a flag when the side matures and some holes are filled. There are definitely now guarantees here but it's looking good at this stage.

However, I still think we need more players that can step up to be top-line midfielders when our window opens. At the moment, Heppell is the only one who I can see achieving this. We might have a player come from nowhere, like Collingwood did with Swan, but I would feel much more comfortable if we had another young gun midfielder like a Trengove, Scully, Cotchin, Martin, etc, who at worst case scenario would probably be a just a very solid afl player. Hopefully we can get that in this years' draft, but that is probably unlikely given the concessions to GWS and would require some brilliant recruiting from Dodoro/Keane et al.

 

[Howard Moon]

but the question remains....

what will benefit us most this year...scraping into the 8 and possibly getting a game or 2 of finals experience?

or playing some kids and fininshing somewhere where we can get a crack at another couple of good kids in the draft.

I'm not talking about tanking... im sick to death of losing games as well!

im talking about taking one step at a time. If you cant win a flag does finishing 7th or 8th actually mean anything? i'd rather snap up another couple of kids while we arnt challenging.

its works 3 fold.. you get games into your kids, you get the squad you are going to have in years to come gettinf solid time together and you get the chance at nailing some good draft kids.

if it means jettosing a couple of veterans early this year i'm all for it. Hird has not failed if we dont make the finals. this was always going to be a year of looking and analysing the list for him.

 

[Skeeta Olly]

Finals for sure, we already have the kids.

 

[yaco55]

Three things stand out.

- The first round draft picks that Collingwood nailed are VERY Good players.
- Collingwood got great value from their Rookie selections.
- Collingwood traded out a good player to get a Top 10 draft selection.

 

[ant555]

You can look at Geelong as well and see a similar thing where it took them 6 or so years to build the side that won them the GF.
To a lesser degree St Kilda too although they could not get over the line but it took them a similar 6 or 7 year lead in.

One thing all 3 sides went through was 2 or 3 years of prelim final defeats before taking the next step into the GF.

The only exception has been the Hawks who got there in 4 years (they did have some good cattle already) but then they fell away and have had to blood some more young blokes to get back to where they are now which is pushing top 4.

So what does that mean for us, well i still think you have to count the Knights era as a lot of the current young blokes where blooded under Matty and the veteran clean out from the previous era also started then.
So basically we are 3 years into what may take 6 to 8 years.
On the plus side free agency could speed things up.

 

[Burzum]

Ant, probably a silly question at this stage but do you think we'll finally land a "big fish" thanks to free agency?

 

[ant555]

Ant, probably a silly question at this stage but do you think we'll finally land a "big fish" thanks to free agency?

Our chances should be better if we are a team on the brink of playing regular finals with a good coaching panel and a new training venue under way.
When other sides start to rate us a bit then players will want to get on board.

 

[Melky Bar Kid]

Love your Work OP. Think Were definately on our Way!

 

[hank31]

Great post BtG!!


Im not so thrilled with the idea of trading this year for a big fish or some 17 y.o that wont have an impact for 5 years..

This year we should trade picks or draft kids, clear some of the deadwood and wait untill next year when we can secure a free agent..

Does anyone know when the Airport facilities are due to be completed?

 

[Skeeta Olly]

More like when are they due to start.

 

[Kong]

We're supposed to move in for 2013, aren't we?

Though they're still asking us plebs for money, so maybe it's going to take a while.