Cam Rayner

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Vikingnz

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Don't post unless you're going to contribute. Where do you put Rayner based on the body of work that his done in the afl thus far?

I'm no-one if I'm not flexible. Right now he is #30. But I cap his potential at 18 due to the 17 players that are significantly ahead of him from that draft (there's no shame in that). If he produces for a full season or 2 then he can move up from 30 to a maximum of 18.

Which is it - body of work or potential?
 

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dmac_55

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Lets have a brief look. Guys that Rayner doesn't belong in the same sentence as from the 2017 draft:

Dylan Moore
Andrew Brayshaw AA
Cerra Top 3 mid at club
Fritsch AA
Naughton AA
Zac Bailey AA

Higgins AA squad, top 7 small forward
Tim Kelly AA
Oscar Allen Top 12 KPP
Balta Top 10 KPP
Liam Ryan AA squad, top 7 small forward
Sam Taylor AA
Petty Top 15 KPP
Liam Baker Top 10 player at club
Starcevich Top 10 player at club
Davies-Uniacke Top 3 mid at club
Mihocek Top 12 KPF

Pretty amazing draft really. I think Rayner could go past maybe 5-6 of them but who knows. Long way to go and we don't know what other ACL's etc. are to pop.

LDU, Starc, Petty, Baker, Cerra all could be within striking range if he improves. If by the end of his career Rayner is around 10th-15th of the draft we will take that considering his start so far. But he could go higher than that!
 

danster168

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Which is it - body of work or potential?
It's got to be both. This meteoric rise character literally only looks at the future and completely forgets about the 5 years prior like he's had amnesia. It suits Rayner beautifully but completely disrespectful to the guys that have been playing good footy in that time. While Rayner was sitting on his couch, Petty was locking down Naughton in a grand final. But let's just disregard all these guys and focus on the future games. It's ridiculous. And disrespectful.
 

poshman

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Considering you have watched every game of Rayner's career and know who the 'best' players named were, can you tell me how many times these players have been named in the best over their careers?


Switkowski
Xerri
Hunter Clark
Ed Richards
Wil Powell
Brent Daniels
Ainsworth
Tom De Koning
Worpel
Naish
Spargo
Miers

I haven't looked at 'best players named' since I was playing junior footy and scanning the local paper. The list's are usually basic garbage from some journo looking up stats without watching the game

I think Switta should be on the other list (I realise you didn't make the list - so just saying). Very, very good player.

That isn't to comment on Rayner. Who although he has been disappointing looks like he is building now and if he plays close to the level of his last couple of games throughout the season will be seen easily in the top ten to fifteen of the draft. His ceiling seems to be a lot higher than that as well. Coming back from a knee things are looking very positive.
 

danster168

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Recovering from a ******* ACL lol.

Rayner will be considered Top 10 of his draft with the potential to be Top 5 - not #1 but nowhere near a bust.

I'm out - you seem to enjoy making this your hill to die on. Best of luck.

So guys like Petty's good form and feats should be lessened because of some random afl player does his ACL?
 

dmac_55

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I think Switta should be on the other list (I realise you didn't make the list - so just saying). Very, very good player.

That isn't to comment on Rayner. Who although he has been disappointing looks like he is building now and if he plays close to the level of his last couple of games throughout the season will be seen easily in the top ten to fifteen of the draft. His ceiling seems to be a lot higher than that as well. Coming back from a knee things are looking very positive.
Switta is a speedster, I have liked what work I have seen from him. Remind me where he was taken in the draft? Freo finding some gems of late.

Rayner's career stats may not be amazing, but he is just as likely to break a quarter of a final open with a few big pack marks and snags. He may not become a 25 possession a game every week type player, but if he could turn it on and win us a final I would take that any year from any pick, as all clubs would..
 

danster168

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So you didn't watch 2018 or 2020. Got it, thanks.
Dude, he's unfit this year too. Don't know if you've been watching but so much for him becoming this midfielder that was hyped up about? He's got no tank. The experiment failed. If he goes into the midfield he'll get 10 touches. So may as well play him forward where he'll get 10 touches too.
 

danster168

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A vote would've helped your argument a bit.

Sam Taylor, Dylan Moore, Mihocek and Ed Richards all got votes from the 2017 draft. lol. When you play the weekly rollercoaster to suit your argument you need to take the losses when I point them out to you. Pick 30 is still a late 2nd rounder. That's ok. Fringe players can still pop up from time to time and kick 3 :)
 

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Meteoric Rise

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It's got to be both. This meteoric rise character literally only looks at the future and completely forgets about the 5 years prior like he's had amnesia. It suits Rayner beautifully but completely disrespectful to the guys that have been playing good footy in that time. While Rayner was sitting on his couch, Petty was locking down Naughton in a grand final. But let's just disregard all these guys and focus on the future games. It's ridiculous. And disrespectful.

You are rating the players based on hindsight….and still making errors galore.

When players are drafted by clubs the clubs have to act with foresight. So if you really want to say clubs got x pick wrong or y pick wrong, you do a current re-draft based on what you think the player is worth going forward, like the clubs had to, and like I did.

Put your deplorable reputation on the line if you want some credibility. 😉
 

StevoJenkins

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Dude, he's unfit this year too. Don't know if you've been watching but so much for him becoming this midfielder that was hyped up about? He's got no tank. The experiment failed. If he goes into the midfield he'll get 10 touches. So may as well play him forward where he'll get 10 touches too.
Reason why I asked you whether you actually watched the games you claimed you saw, is because Rayner did fine in 2018 as a forward. He did his job and got the experience he needed to play at AFL level. If you watched that season, you knew that midfield time was 3-4 years off as you saw him playing, but he was a forward who could get goals and had a few glimpses that he could play as a mid (watch Carlton vs. Brisbane and you'll see a lot of good moments that he continued to show for the rest of the season from that point).

2019 was more of the same, where he didn't do too much outside of the previous season, but he was played as a forward - so this wasn't unexpected.

2020 had Rayner play some midfield, but once again he was playing majority of his time as a forward. He did really well towards the end of the season, in which he did his best work in the final vs. Richmond, where he played midfield. You could tell in this season he was working towards more midfield time and was expected to play extended midfield minutes moving forward.

2021 he does an ACL after a good pre-season and didn't play a game in 2021.

It's probably worth mentioning that, since his first season in the AFL, Rayner has not been mentioned as a potentially powerful midfielder. Commentators dropped this after early 2019, when Rayner didn't play much in the midfield. Since then the club backed him in and in the small sample size where he has played as a mid (late 2020 to now) he hasn't done too bad and is only building up on his field presence since returning to the side.

Anyway, you would know all of this if you watched all 70 or so games you claim to, like the Richmond and Carlton games I've mentioned specifically, or some other games I can list where Rayner was more than serviceable. But since you don't remember this, I'm assuming you haven't watched more than a couple handfuls of Brisbane games, most of which were last year or in 2019.
 

dmac_55

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Anyway, you would know all of this if you watched all 70 or so games you claim to, like the Richmond and Carlton games I've mentioned specifically, or some other games I can list where Rayner was more than serviceable. But since you don't remember this, I'm assuming you haven't watched more than a couple handfuls of Brisbane games, most of which were last year or in 2019.
Probably just watched Brisbane games in 2021 and thought 'I haven't seen Rayner at all today, very quiet'.
 

danster168

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You are rating the players based on hindsight….and still making errors galore.

When players are drafted by clubs the clubs have to act with foresight. So if you really want to say clubs got x pick wrong or y pick wrong, you do a current re-draft based on what you think the player is worth going forward, like the clubs had to, and like I did.

Put your deplorable reputation on the line if you want some credibility. 😉
I'm not criticising Brisbane for getting the draft pick wrong. Drafting is hard. As a dees fan, we've had a truckload of botched first rounders. Watts/Toumpas/Morton/Lucas Cook etc.

Yeah, but if you do a re-draft it disregards everything that's happened in the past. A draft is picking someone for the future. It disregards total value from seasons already past.

My opinion may be offensive but my opinion is closer to the neutral opinion than the Brisbane fans opinion.
 

Meteoric Rise

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A vote would've helped your argument a bit.

Sam Taylor, Dylan Moore, Mihocek and Ed Richards all got votes from the 2017 draft. lol. When you play the weekly rollercoaster to suit your argument you need to take the losses when I point them out to you. Pick 30 is still a late 2nd rounder. That's ok. Fringe players can still pop up from time to time and kick 3 :)


10 Josh Dunkley (WB)
7 Bailey Dale (WB)
4 Ed Richards (WB)
4 Caleb Daniel (WB)
3 Marcus Bontempelli (WB)
1 Nick Martin (ESS)
1 Peter Wright (ESS)

My highly controversial number 12 pick snuck in for a few votes there I see. So he may not be going to be delisted this year after all, as was stated by one insightful analyst on this thread. 😁
 

dmac_55

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I'm not criticising Brisbane for getting the draft pick wrong. Drafting is hard. As a dees fan, we've had a truckload of botched first rounders. Watts/Toumpas/Morton/Lucas Cook etc.

Yeah, but if you do a re-draft it disregards everything that's happened in the past. A draft is picking someone for the future. It disregards total value from seasons already past.

My opinion may be offensive but my opinion is closer to the neutral opinion than the Brisbane fans opinion.
Your current opinion is he is #30 in a redraft. I don't think Brisbane fans think he is top #5 based off what he has produced so far, however he is closer to 10 than 30 if you polled neutrals on who you would take for the rest of their career from that draft.
 

Meteoric Rise

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I'm not criticising Brisbane for getting the draft pick wrong. Drafting is hard. As a dees fan, we've had a truckload of botched first rounders. Watts/Toumpas/Morton/Lucas Cook etc.

Yeah, but if you do a re-draft it disregards everything that's happened in the past. A draft is picking someone for the future. It disregards total value from seasons already past.

My opinion may be offensive but my opinion is closer to the neutral opinion than the Brisbane fans opinion.

No it doesn’t. You are using what you have seen of the players and what you know of them to project what you think their value might be in the future. It involves more subjective elements rather than saying player x has kicked more goals since he was drafted than player y therefore player x is worth more than player y.
 

danster168

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10 Josh Dunkley (WB)
7 Bailey Dale (WB)
4 Ed Richards (WB)
4 Caleb Daniel (WB)
3 Marcus Bontempelli (WB)
1 Nick Martin (ESS)
1 Peter Wright (ESS)

My highly controversial number 12 pick snuck in for a few votes there I see. So he may not be going to be delisted this year after all, as was stated by one insightful analyst on this thread. 😁
Happy to re-assess Richards after a season of good footy too. I won't react to a good game.
 

danster168

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No it doesn’t. You are using what you have seen of the players and what you know of them to project what you think their value might be in the future. It involves more subjective elements rather than saying player x has kicked more goals since he was drafted than player y therefore player x is worth more than player y.
I see what you're saying but picture this: Oliver and Petracca. Let's say they were in the same draft. Petracca spent the first 5 years of his career playing half forward because he wasn't fit enough/good enough. He then flicked the switch in 2020. Compare him to Oliver who won our best and fairest in his 2nd season with 30 touches a game. Let's say we re-draft them now. Many people would take petracca due to his damage forward of centre. But Oliver is miles ahead in total value because he's produced 4 more years of elite football, even if Petracca has the slightly higher upside (in some peoples eyes). For Petracca to eclipse Oliver in total career value he would have to produce 4 years of elite football to Oliver's 4 years of serviceable football. And that's simply not going to happen unless Petracca plays elite football from 32-36 and Oliver retires early.

This is a perfect example of total value vs re-drafted value. I would take Oliver every single time if I had to re-draft those guys as 18 year olds as he's played 4 more elite years.But I would understand why some people would draft Petracca ahead of Oliver going forward.
 

Meteoric Rise

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Happy to re-assess Richards after a season of good footy too. I won't react to a good game.


Ed Richards before Fritsch.LOOOOOOL

Ed Richards ? Terrible footballer likely to be put on the trading block by the Dogs at season's end


The trick though Dan is to rate players at a given point based on their future value. Not wait until the horse has bolted then use hindsight to say guess what, Ed Richards wasn’t in my top 30 before but with the benefit of hindsight I would like a mulligan on that embarrassing call by myself.

Come on Dan, what is Ed Richards and Cam Rayner for that matter worth in a trade? It is no use offering pick 15 for them later when someone has already snapped them up off you for picks in the 30’s because you did not read the road signs correctly old chap. 😉
 

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