Cam Rayner

[Meteoric Rise]

That's what happens when a captain & club wins 3 premierships, we still should have won the premiership in 2020 though if Geelong didn't smash our arse in the prelimary final

Too many of your good players were too young. Your time is now and for the next few years. It is whether you have the right balance of talent.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I do miss danster. We need him back. Threads like this are no good without a danster. I am the danster on the Max King thread. I consider it my duty to Saints supporters.

To be fair on this thread though, danster did have a lot of support from posters who seem to have disappeared from view.

The OP

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Too many of your good players were too young. Your time is now and for the next few years. It is whether you have the right balance of talent.

Hopefully that is true and we can win a premiership or 2 or 3, still would have been nice though to win like the Hawks did in 2008 before their golden run, given we had most our games played in QLD during that period as well but it just wasn't meant to be sadly, fair credit to your mob though because they deserve those 3 grand final victories and creating such a successful club as a result of those wins, just please don't steal McStay from us at the end of this year though

 

[VinnieB]

If he was taken at pick 30, no one would care.

For a pick 1, he's a real let down. One of the poorer number 1 picks in recent memory.

In hindsight though, that draft was shit. Check out the top 20, there's a few in there but overall a lot of disappointments and you'd expect a bit more to look like more.

It seems you may be wrong in this one.
Has looked quite strong on returning and was terrific over the weekend.

Lions building him up attending more centre square contests and doing well.

 

[juss]

It seems you may be wrong in this one.
Has looked quite strong on returning and was terrific over the weekend.

Lions building him up attending more centre square contests and doing well.

Good on him, a number 1 draft pick played a good game 5 years on.

It doesn't change my point he's still probably disappointing compared to some others at the same timepoint.

After 72 games his season average this year is 15.3 disposals and he's kicked 12 goals from 11 games.

As far as those forward/mids are concerned those aren't great numbers. Compare to someone like Shai Bolton after 78 games averaging 18.2 and 21 goals already this year, taken at pick 29 a year earlier.

He should continue to improve over the years, and to be fair he needs to because he's still nothing special despite some better games this season.

Potentially signs that next year could be his breakout season though. Will have to wait and see if he can put a strong full season together.

 

[Dazb86]

Ed Richards

20

Ed Richards

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.7

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.3

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

still ahead

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Good on him, a number 1 draft pick played a good game 5 years on.

It doesn't change my point he's still probably disappointing compared to some others at the same timepoint.

After 72 games his season average this year is 15.3 disposals and he's kicked 12 goals from 11 games.

As far as those forward/mids are concerned those aren't great numbers. Compare to someone like Shai Bolton after 78 games averaging 18.2 and 21 goals already this year, taken at pick 29 a year earlier.

He should continue to improve over the years, and to be fair he needs to because he's still nothing special despite some better games this season.

Potentially signs that next year could be his breakout season though. Will have to wait and see if he can put a strong full season together.

Here you are comparing Rayner to Bolton. Bolton as you point out is from the previous draft class, and he has not done a knee, and I would think he is the best or second best small forward in the game right now. He certainly looks on target to be selected as a small forward in the AA team, returning numbers for goals, goal assists and score involvements getting up around what Toby Greene normally produces, while having a substantial centre clearance, disposal and tackle impact.

Rayner is not at that level at this point. There are probably only two of those guys in the AFL right now, Greene and Bolton, when you consider the all round impact in the type of role Rayner is playing.

Rayner to my eye seemed to take a bit of a step forward in his 6th game this season, v the Suns. So let’s leave his first 5 games out of his sample, given he was off an ACL injury, and compare his averages since then with the other players in any sort of similar roles in his draft class, using their 2022 season averages. This should give us an idea of how he is tracking against similar players in his draft class. Then we can compare this to say Bolton and Greene 2022.

Player	Draft pick(2017 unless stated)	Disposals	Contested Possession	Contested Marks	Effective disposals	Goals + Goal Assists	Score involvements	Tackles
Rayner(rd 6 onwards)	1	17	9	1	11	2.2	5.2	1.3
Stephenson	6	17	5.6	0	10.4	0.8	2.9	3.6
D Fogarty	12	8	4.2	0.7	6	1.1	3.8	2.2
Z Bailey	15	17	7.2	0.1	11	2.2	5.9	2.3
J Higgins*	17	13	4.6	0.4	7.5	3	5.8	1.4
L Ryan	26	9.2	4.1	0.6	5.4	2	3.9	1.9
C Spargo	29	13.4	3.8	0.1	9.1	1.3	4.9	2.3
B Fritsch	31	8.7	3.6	0.3	6	3.1	5.7	1.1
D Moore	67	19	7.1	0.5	13.4	2.2	6.0	2.9
L Murphy	rookie	13	5.9	0.1	8.4	0.7	4.6	2.4
S Bolton	29(2016)	18	9.4	0.4	11.6	2.9	7.5	2.4
T Greene	11(2011)	13	5	0.7	7.7	2.8	7	1.3

*adjusted Higgins figures as if he had played one less game as was off early injured in 2 matches.


So a few things to note here.

1. Obviously all of the players’ roles differ to some extent and some players listed are playing in malfunctioning teams, Ryan and Stephenson in particular. Rayner is by far the strongest contested mark of the group. He is also winning the most contested possessions, obviously his stints in the middle help him there.

2. For goal impact, only Fritsch and Higgins are ahead of Rayner but they are well ahead. However Fritsch’s whole role is to get on the end of his team’s work up the field and turn it into scores. His disposal average of 8.7 is extremely low, and his tackle average is lowest of the group.

3. Bailey is an interesting comparison. Rayner is matching Bailey here. Rayner a bit ahead in contested possessions, Bailey has an extra tackle per game and is a little ahead for score involvements. Bailey is generally seen as a borderline star player now.

4. Dylan Moore’s returns are nothing short of outstanding in this group, I would say the best overall. He has the highest score involvements and disposal numbers, and healthy returns in ever category. Rayner I would say sits just behind him overall.

Overall, I think Rayner from round 6 onwards is tracking not too far from the top of this group, and there are some pretty tidy performer in there, including Fritsch and Ryan who are both 3 years older than Rayner, and haven’t had to overcome an ACL injury.

It would be interesting to see them all spilled in trades and what sort of bids they would get. I personally would pay most for Rayner and Bailey right now, and keeping a very close eye on Dylan Moore to see where he goes from here. Of them all I am warming even more to Rayner, because he seems to be matching these others on recordable stats, but has the ability to crash packs open, which I don’t think any of the others do. I am still not giving up pick 1 for Rayner, but very comfortable that he is now tracking towards being well worth a top 10 pick.

 

[Dazb86]

Here you are comparing Rayner to Bolton. Bolton as you point out is from the previous draft class, and he has not done a knee, and I would think he is the best or second best small forward in the game right now. He certainly looks on target to be selected as a small forward in the AA team, returning numbers for goals, goal assists and score involvements getting up around what Toby Greene normally produces, while having a substantial centre clearance, disposal and tackle impact.

Rayner is not at that level at this point. There are probably only two of those guys in the AFL right now, Greene and Bolton, when you consider the all round impact in the type of role Rayner is playing.

Rayner to my eye seemed to take a bit of a step forward in his 6th game this season, v the Suns. So let’s leave his first 5 games out of his sample, given he was off an ACL injury, and compare his averages since then with the other players in any sort of similar roles in his draft class, using their 2022 season averages. This should give us an idea of how he is tracking against similar players in his draft class. Then we can compare this to say Bolton and Greene 2022.

Player	Draft pick(2017 unless stated)	Disposals	Contested Possession	Contested Marks	Effective disposals	Goals + Goal Assists	Score involvements	Tackles
Rayner(rd 6 onwards)	1	17	9	1	11	2.2	5.2	1.3
Stephenson	6	17	5.6	0	10.4	0.8	2.9	3.6
D Fogarty	12	8	4.2	0.7	6	1.1	3.8	2.2
Z Bailey	15	17	7.2	0.1	11	2.2	5.9	2.3
J Higgins*	17	13	4.6	0.4	7.5	3	5.8	1.4
L Ryan	26	9.2	4.1	0.6	5.4	2	3.9	1.9
C Spargo	29	13.4	3.8	0.1	9.1	1.3	4.9	2.3
B Fritsch	31	8.7	3.6	0.3	6	3.1	5.7	1.1
D Moore	67	19	7.1	0.5	13.4	2.2	6.0	2.9
L Murphy	rookie	13	5.9	0.1	8.4	0.7	4.6	2.4
S Bolton	29(2016)	18	9.4	0.4	11.6	2.9	7.5	2.4
T Greene	11(2011)	13	5	0.7	7.7	2.8	7	1.3

*adjusted Higgins figures as if he had played one less game as was off early injured in 2 matches.


So a few things to note here.

1. Obviously all of the players’ roles differ to some extent and some players listed are playing in malfunctioning teams, Ryan and Stephenson in particular. Rayner is by far the strongest contested mark of the group. He is also winning the most contested possessions, obviously his stints in the middle help him there.

2. For goal impact, only Fritsch and Higgins are ahead of Rayner but they are well ahead. However Fritsch’s whole role is to get on the end of his team’s work up the field and turn it into scores. His disposal average of 8.7 is extremely low, and his tackle average is lowest of the group.

3. Bailey is an interesting comparison. Rayner is matching Bailey here. Rayner a bit ahead in contested possessions, Bailey has an extra tackle per game and is a little ahead for score involvements. Bailey is generally seen as a borderline star player now.

4. Dylan Moore’s returns are nothing short of outstanding in this group, I would say the best overall. He has the highest score involvements and disposal numbers, and healthy returns in ever category. Rayner I would say sits just behind him overall.

Overall, I think Rayner from round 6 onwards is tracking not too far from the top of this group, and there are some pretty tidy performer in there, including Fritsch and Ryan who are both 3 years older than Rayner, and haven’t had to overcome an ACL injury.

It would be interesting to see them all spilled in trades and what sort of bids they would get. I personally would pay most for Rayner and Bailey right now, and keeping a very close eye on Dylan Moore to see where he goes from here. Of them all I am warming even more to Rayner, because he seems to be matching these others on recordable stats, but has the ability to crash packs open, which I don’t think any of the others do. I am still not giving up pick 1 for Rayner, but very comfortable that he is now tracking towards being well worth a top 10 pick.

You've left out Richards

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Ed Richards still ahead

That list clogger/turnover merchant. Please

 

[Tom14]

You've left out Richards

Richards plays half back doesn't he? Doesn't really make sense to compare him with Rayner in terms of stats.

 

[Dazb86]

That list clogger/turnover merchant. Please

84.9% efficiency

 

[Dazb86]

Richards plays half back doesn't he? Doesn't really make sense to compare him with Rayner in terms of stats.

This is now the Ed Richards thread

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You've left out Richards

I like Richards as a player and earlier in the thread rated him currently the 12th most valuable player in his draft - 2017, to some predictable derision. He is having an excellent season and I think really helps the Dogs giving them a 3rd potent ball user out of defence, along with Daniel and Dale. This makes it much tougher for opposition teams to shut down the quality ball movement out of defence. His height - 188cm - speed, and overhead prowess would also have made him the suitable opponent for Fritsch that the Bulldogs lacked in the 2021 Grand Final. He has clearly improved strongly this year and at 22 years old he should only get better.

But I didn’t include Richards in my table because he is playing an entirely different role to Rayner, as has been pointed out. Hopefull Elmer_Judd creates a thread mocking Ed Richards as a list clogger and we can go to town on him there.

 

[Nunez]

Good on him, a number 1 draft pick played a good game 5 years on.

It doesn't change my point he's still probably disappointing compared to some others at the same timepoint.

After 72 games his season average this year is 15.3 disposals and he's kicked 12 goals from 11 games.

As far as those forward/mids are concerned those aren't great numbers. Compare to someone like Shai Bolton after 78 games averaging 18.2 and 21 goals already this year, taken at pick 29 a year earlier.

He should continue to improve over the years, and to be fair he needs to because he's still nothing special despite some better games this season.

Potentially signs that next year could be his breakout season though. Will have to wait and see if he can put a strong full season together.

If there were ever a case study in why stats can be deceiving, it's Cam Rayner in 2022.

The frist few rounds were his first games back from an ACL and it absolutely took him a few weeks to build up.

Fast forward to round six - his first game with more midfield time. He had 4 shots on goal, would have had 5 (advantage was paid), 20 touches, 6 score involvements and 2 goal assists. His best game for the year which not coincidentally the first game with more midfield time.

A week later Joe Daniher gets injured in the first and Cam has to play FF. He kicks 3.2 and provides elite pressure.

He then spends a few weeks up forward kicking goals and setting up others. In this time he still manages 400+ metres gained despite playing deep/off half forward at times.

Back into his mid/forward role the past fortnight and he's had 21 and 25 touches with big impact per posession. If you watched either game I am sure you'd have seen that.

Stats for Cam Rayner in 2022 do not represent his season and now that he has found confidence he will only get better from here.

 

[juss]

If there were ever a case study in why stats can be deceiving, it's Cam Rayner in 2022.

The frist few rounds were his first games back from an ACL and it absolutely took him a few weeks to build up.

Fast forward to round six - his first game with more midfield time. He had 4 shots on goal, would have had 5 (advantage was paid), 20 touches, 6 score involvements and 2 goal assists. His best game for the year which not coincidentally the first game with more midfield time.

A week later Joe Daniher gets injured in the first and Cam has to play FF. He kicks 3.2 and provides elite pressure.

He then spends a few weeks up forward kicking goals and setting up others. In this time he still manages 400+ metres gained despite playing deep/off half forward at times.

Back into his mid/forward role the past fortnight and he's had 21 and 25 touches with big impact per posession. If you watched either game I am sure you'd have seen that.

Stats for Cam Rayner in 2022 do not represent his season and now that he has found confidence he will only get better from here.

He probably will from here, to what level I'm not sure, but it's probably not hard to get better from his career so far which in fairness is a fairly tame base to be starting from as far as top draft picks go after that amount of time in the game.

 

[Nunez]

He probably will from here, to what level I'm not sure, but it's probably not hard to get better from his career so far which in fairness is a fairly tame base to be starting from as far as top draft picks go after that amount of time in the game.

In my opinion what he's delivered in the past month is what he was ready to do last year until he did his ACL. His fitness heading into last year was very good and better than the club had hoped. It was really unfortunate last year was robbed of him, but that's footy.

The previous years were very slow burn I would absolutely agree though, he had plenty to improve on. He still has plenty of improvement in him, but the difference is he's starting to show what he can do consistently and he's only going to get better.

 

[Elixuh]

Cam Rayner has something Ed Richards

20

Ed Richards

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.7

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.3

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

never will, a soul.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Cam Rayner has something Ed Richards never will, a soul.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Cam Rayner on fire lately, ready for those who argued with me so aggressively to apologise to me now

 

[danster168]

I do miss danster. We need him back. Threads like this are no good without a danster. I am the danster on the Max King thread. I consider it my duty to Saints supporters.

To be fair on this thread though, danster did have a lot of support from posters who seem to have disappeared from view.

Meteoric Rise, I've missed you! I'm now back. Although, I feel like I can't even speak my mind anymore because I've got to be on my best behaviour.

I'm glad to see Rayner playing some better footy. But I'm going to hold out until a larger sample size is there. It's like in the 'Cripps vs Oliver' thread, all the Carlton fans were going mental over Cripps' early form. The last 3 weeks Cripps has been horrendous and back to his 2020 & 2021 form. So I'll wait longer.

 

[GroggSquad]

Look at all the chirpy Lions fans in here after the 2017 #1 pick plays a good game for the first time in 5 years...

Jaidyn Stephenson

2

Jaidyn Stephenson

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

8.8

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.5

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

4.3

3star

M

3.5

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

1.2

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

from Rayner's draft had a 38 touch 1 goal game last year, where is he at now?

 

[danster168]

Rayner hasn't polled 1 coaches vote all year. imo, it just shows how low the expectations are on Rayner. But I recognise he is showing improvement. For the record, Spargo has polled coaches votes in 2 games this season. Rayner, 0.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Look at all the chirpy Lions fans in here after the 2017 #1 pick plays a good game for the first time in 5 years...

Jaidyn Stephenson from Rayner's draft had a 38 touch 1 goal game last year, where is he at now?

This post is up there for worst of the year. Well done.

 

[bungalow_bill]

This post is up there for worst of the year. Well done.

Too much grog?

 

[GroggSquad]

This post is up there for worst of the year. Well done.

Ah sorry my bad - Cam Rayner has been elite over the first 5 years of his career getting plenty of ball and having plenty of impact.

Astute Pick 1 selection over Andy Brayshaw & Aaron Naughton - well done Lions