Cam Rayner

[danster168]

The point he was making is he does nothing else. 8 disposals and 1 tackle a game is pretty piss poor. For reference, Rayner (who everyone is claiming is s**t) averages about double both of those stats. I'm not saying he's a better player, just that your infatuation with Fritsch is a little over the top.

huh? you're talking about average disposals when rayner plays midfield. what the hell. that is odd

 

[scott_the_man]

huh? you're talking about average disposals when rayner plays midfield. what the hell. that is odd

He plays majority forward.

But even if we compare Fritsch to a full time forward, 8 disposals and 1 tackle a game is still piss poor. He barely gets involved and applys no pressure. Sure he gets on the end of a couple of goals but that is all he offers. Would like to see how he would go in a lesser team.

 

[danster168]

He plays majority forward.

But even if we compare Fritsch to a full time forward, 8 disposals and 1 tackle a game is still piss poor. He barely gets involved and applys no pressure. Sure he gets on the end of a couple of goals but that is all he offers. Would like to see how he would go in a lesser team

Rayner centre bounce attendances:
Round 16: 9
Round 15: 11
Round 14: Bye
Round 13: 4
Round 12: 16
Round 11: 17
Round 10: 11

Need I go on? Dude, you're talking about defensive pressure, and yet supporting Rayner? He's horrible defensively and there was literally a segment on his poor defence last week.

Fritsch doesn't need defending. He's kicked 59 goals in a season, been a top 10 forward and kicked 6 goals in a grand final. The discussion has been had.
Got on the end of a couple? Yeah, because he's too quick for a tall defender and too good aerially for a small.

I don't disagree that 8 isn't poor. but I want my forwards to kick goals. Could he do more? sure, he's not a Cyril Rioli. But you're forgetting one thing, Fritsch has already reached the mountain tops. he's already been a gun of the afl. His possession count is down this year, who cares, he has credits I the bank. Rayner has no credits in the bank. He's achieved nothing yet.

To compare his disposal count (15, which is a disgrace considering his midfield time) with a guy that plays deep forward tells me you're not cut out for these in depth discussions. At least I do my research.

 

[scott_the_man]

Rayner centre bounce attendances:
Round 16: 9
Round 15: 11
Round 14: Bye
Round 13: 4
Round 12: 16
Round 11: 17
Round 10: 11

Need I go on? Dude, you're talking about defensive pressure, and yet supporting Rayner? He's horrible defensively and there was literally a segment on his poor defence last week.

Fritsch doesn't need defending. He's kicked 59 goals in a season, been a top 10 forward and kicked 6 goals in a grand final. The discussion has been had.
Got on the end of a couple? Yeah, because he's too quick for a tall defender and too good aerially for a small.

I don't disagree that 8 isn't poor. but I want my forwards to kick goals. Could he do more? sure, he's not a Cyril Rioli. But you're forgetting one thing, Fritsch has already reached the mountain tops. he's already been a gun of the afl. His possession count is down this year, who cares, he has credits I the bank. Rayner has no credits in the bank. He's achieved nothing yet.

To compare his disposal count (15, which is a disgrace considering his midfield time) with a guy that plays deep forward tells me you're not cut out for these in depth discussions. At least I do my research.

It's already been said in this thread that the media bash up about Rayner the other week was a load of shit. He had more pressure acts than both Oliver and Petracca and a game high tackles that game. If you look at the things that actually matter (the stats) he is constantly top 5 for pressure acts and tackles. But read into the nit picking media all you like if that's your thing.

Again, compare Fritsch to any forward in the comp and you will see his stats are actually quite shit other than his goals. He's a one trick pony.

 

[danster168]

It's already been said in this thread that the media bash up about Rayner the other week was a load of s**t. He had more pressure acts than both Oliver and Petracca and a game high tackles that game. If you look at the things that actually matter (the stats) he is constantly top 5 for pressure acts and tackles. But read into the nit picking media all you like if that's your thing.

Again, compare Fritsch to any forward in the comp and you will see his stats are actually quite s**t other than his goals. He's a one trick pony.

Dude, this is a Rayner thread. Like I said, Fritsch has proven that he's a gun. The argument was finished last season. If he's one trick is goals then so be it.

but don't give me this dribble that Rayner averages 15 touches and try to deceive me by not mentioning that he plays a hell of a lot in the midfield and gets prime opportunities to find the ball and still doesn't.

I also don't look at the media at all. I have my own opinions. Rayner hasn't had a single coaches vote all season long. And never EVER mention Rayner in the same sentence as those 2 melbourne greats ever again. Blasphemy of the highest order.

 

[scott_the_man]

Dude, this is a Rayner thread. Like I said, Fritsch has proven that he's a gun. The argument was finished last season. If he's one trick is goals then so be it.

but don't give me this dribble that Rayner averages 15 touches and try to deceive me by not mentioning that he plays a hell of a lot in the midfield and gets prime opportunities to find the ball and still doesn't.

I also don't look at the media at all. I have my own opinions. Rayner hasn't had a single coaches vote all season long. And never EVER mention Rayner in the same sentence as those 2 melbourne greats ever again. Blasphemy of the highest order.

Thank goodness you have finally come to your senses and realised this thread is about Rayner and not Fritsch. Didn't think I would see the day.

 

[KissKiss]

This is a Rayner thread and with Rayner moving to be more of a mid/forward player comparisons with Fritsch and Spargo are stupid.

Fritsch and Spargo should be compared with guys like Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

31

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

, Stengle, Greene, etc. Actual small forwards who have small forward stats - should be looking at goals, assists, etc

Rayner should be compared against players more like Bolton, Bailey, De Goey, etc. Players who do split pretty even mid and forward time with different amounts pending on the game situation. Disposals, inside 50s, etc are more important but probably less so than pure mids.

 

[scott_the_man]

This is a Rayner thread and with Rayner moving to be more of a mid/forward player comparisons with Fritsch and Spargo are stupid.

Fritsch and Spargo should be compared with guys like Charlie Cameron, Stengle, Greene, etc. Actual small forwards who have small forward stats - should be looking at goals, assists, etc

Rayner should be compared against players more like Bolton, Bailey, De Goey, etc. Players who do split pretty even mid and forward time with different amounts pending on the game situation. Disposals, inside 50s, etc are more important but probably less so than pure mids.

Heeney is probably the one closest to Rayner in terms of a role comparrison.
When you compare the two they actually aren't much different statistically. The difference is Rayner was a pick 1 so the critics jump down his throat a lot harder.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He plays majority forward.

But even if we compare Fritsch to a full time forward, 8 disposals and 1 tackle a game is still piss poor. He barely gets involved and applys no pressure. Sure he gets on the end of a couple of goals but that is all he offers. Would like to see how he would go in a lesser team.

You certainly are not rating a player worth pick 4 who is as easy to replicate as Bayley Fritsch. He sits 417th in the AFl for contested possessions per game in 2022, below fellow forwards who are not key position players:

Cockatoo, Petrucelle, Waterman, Frederick, S Butler, Perkins, Owies, Weightman, Jack Martin, K Pickett, Wicks, Rowe, Ginnivan, Wingard, Ronke, Gunston, Higgins, Rachele, Castagna, Rohan, Rosas, Ainsworth, Membrey, Hayward, Close, Gray, Silvagni, Schultz, Jeffrey, Breust, Guelfi, Georgiades, Stengle, Chuck Cameron, Lachlan Murphy, Toby Greene, McHenry, Zurhaar, Papley, Rhylee West, McCarthy, Walters, Pepper, Switkowski, Neal-Bullen, W Rioli, Rankine, Z Bailey, Holman, Stringer, Rayner, J Elliott, Heeney, Bolton.

In other words, almost anyone who plays the vast majority forward. 54 players who play forward and are not key forwards average more contested possessions than Fritsch this season.

And of those, the following average more goals + goal assists than Fritsch:

Bolton, Rankine, Greene, Charlie Cameron, Breust.

And loads of these players average above 2.0 for goals + goal assists - Fritsch averages 2.7.

So Fritsch I think sits 6th in the AFL for non key forward goals + goal assists. He plays in the 2nd best team. And all 5 ahead of him win more of their own ball. As do 54 other non-key forwards, 3 per team. Add back the 2-3 key forwards per team who would all be having a bigger impact at contests than Fritsch, we can see it is tough to find bigger contested pygmies amongst forwards in the whole AFL…….bar Spargo of course, who sits behind a further 10 specialist forwards for contested possessions.

Is it any wonder the Melbourne forward line is struggling?

 

[danster168]

This is a Rayner thread and with Rayner moving to be more of a mid/forward player comparisons with Fritsch and Spargo are stupid.

Fritsch and Spargo should be compared with guys like Charlie Cameron, Stengle, Greene, etc. Actual small forwards who have small forward stats - should be looking at goals, assists, etc

Rayner should be compared against players more like Bolton, Bailey, De Goey, etc. Players who do split pretty even mid and forward time with different amounts pending on the game situation. Disposals, inside 50s, etc are more important but probably less so than pure mids.

I agree.
it all started because Meteoric said he'd still take Rayner 1 or 2 in the draft. Then he drifted to top 10. In no particular order Naughton, Tom De toning, Fritsch, Andrew Brayshaw, Cerra, Zac Bailey, Starcevich, Tim Kelly, Balta, Sam Taylor, Liam Ryan, Petty, Davies-Uniacke, Tom McCartin, Dylan Moore, Liam Baker and Mihocek are all miles ahead of Rayner without even blinking. That's 17 blokes. So at best, that places Rayner at 18 in his draft.

Throw into the mix 10 guys Jack Higgins, Ed Richards, Oscar Allen, Spargo, Ainsworth, Worpel, Switkowski, Holman, Roarke Smith and Sam Reid that you could make a case for then that puts Rayner at 18-28 in his draft. It would take a minimum of 2 great seasons to bump out anyone in the top 17. And 2 more seasons like the one Rayner's having now puts Rayner outside the top 30.

You may disagree with the odd player rating here or there but it's fairly clear that Brisbane have butchered the number 1 pick.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hurry up and trade this horrible player to Hawthorn already.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Rayner centre bounce attendances:
Round 16: 9
Round 15: 11
Round 14: Bye
Round 13: 4
Round 12: 16
Round 11: 17
Round 10: 11

Need I go on? Dude, you're talking about defensive pressure, and yet supporting Rayner? He's horrible defensively and there was literally a segment on his poor defence last week.

Fritsch doesn't need defending. He's kicked 59 goals in a season, been a top 10 forward and kicked 6 goals in a grand final. The discussion has been had.
Got on the end of a couple? Yeah, because he's too quick for a tall defender and too good aerially for a small.

I don't disagree that 8 isn't poor. but I want my forwards to kick goals. Could he do more? sure, he's not a Cyril Rioli. But you're forgetting one thing, Fritsch has already reached the mountain tops. he's already been a gun of the afl. His possession count is down this year, who cares, he has credits I the bank. Rayner has no credits in the bank. He's achieved nothing yet.

To compare his disposal count (15, which is a disgrace considering his midfield time) with a guy that plays deep forward tells me you're not cut out for these in depth discussions. At least I do my research.

Fritsch a top 10 forward. . Now that is f*cking funny Dan. Melbourne didn’t even rate him in their top 3 forwards on 2021. Neal-Bullen, McDonald and Pickett they rated better than Fritsch. Had Ben Clown played enough games then probably him as well. Top 10 in the AFL. Fair dinkum Dan. You are outright deluded.

But you are probably right, Fritsch doesn’t need defending. Cats only assigned Zuthrie to defend him last night, ranked in their bottom 3 players all time.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I agree.
it all started because Meteoric said he'd still take Rayner 1 or 2 in the draft. Then he drifted to top 10. In no particular order Naughton, Tom De toning, Fritsch, Andrew Brayshaw, Cerra, Zac Bailey, Starcevich, Tim Kelly, Balta, Sam Taylor, Liam Ryan, Petty, Davies-Uniacke, Tom McCartin, Dylan Moore, Liam Baker and Mihocek are all miles ahead of Rayner without even blinking. That's 17 blokes. So at best, that places Rayner at 18 in his draft.

Throw into the mix 10 guys Jack Higgins, Ed Richards, Oscar Allen, Spargo, Ainsworth, Worpel, Switkowski, Holman, Roarke Smith and Sam Reid that you could make a case for then that puts Rayner at 18-28 in his draft. It would take a minimum of 2 great seasons to bump out anyone in the top 17. And 2 more seasons like the one Rayner's having now puts Rayner outside the top 30.

You may disagree with the odd player rating here or there but it's fairly clear that Brisbane have butchered the number 1 pick.

I know you are beaten when you start making things up Dan. I rated Rayner 9th in the 2017 draft. You ludicrously rated him 30th. 26 places below Fritsch and 12 places below Spargo.

 

[danster168]

I know you are beaten when you start making things up Dan. I rated Rayner 9th in the 2017 draft. You ludicrously rated him 30th. 26 places below Fritsch and 12 places below Spargo.

yeh and? I've just shown you the players that are above rayner. Frisch is still at 4 after his monstrous almost norm-smith winning, 59 goal 2021

 

[Meteoric Rise]

yeh and? I've just shown you the players that are above rayner. Frisch is still at 4 after his monstrous almost norm-smith winning, 59 goal 2021

So monstrous Melbourne rated him their 4th best forward behind Bullen, McDonald and Pickett.

It is true there are plenty of players from the 2017 draft ahead of Rayner on performance so far. Several were mature age draftees who did no better than Rayner up until Rayner’s current age. Fritsch is one of those. And Rayner had the slight inconvenience of an ACL injury in there which has obviously set him back substantially. Rayner has shown plenty of signs this year of being a massive contest winner, and when he enters his prime years from 2023 and particularly 2024 onwards, then we will be able to judge his value more reliably.

By the way, why did you claim I said I would take Rayner at 1 or 2 in the draft? What possessed you to post that?

 

[Sirlemsip]

I agree.
it all started because Meteoric said he'd still take Rayner 1 or 2 in the draft. Then he drifted to top 10. In no particular order Naughton, Tom De toning, Fritsch, Andrew Brayshaw, Cerra, Zac Bailey, Starcevich, Tim Kelly, Balta, Sam Taylor, Liam Ryan, Petty, Davies-Uniacke, Tom McCartin, Dylan Moore, Liam Baker and Mihocek are all miles ahead of Rayner without even blinking. That's 17 blokes. So at best, that places Rayner at 18 in his draft.

Throw into the mix 10 guys Jack Higgins, Ed Richards, Oscar Allen, Spargo, Ainsworth, Worpel, Switkowski, Holman, Roarke Smith and Sam Reid that you could make a case for then that puts Rayner at 18-28 in his draft. It would take a minimum of 2 great seasons to bump out anyone in the top 17. And 2 more seasons like the one Rayner's having now puts Rayner outside the top 30.

You may disagree with the odd player rating here or there but it's fairly clear that Brisbane have butchered the number 1 pick.

Stop looking at this through red and blue glasses.
Even with hindsight very few people would take Fritcsh or Petty over Rayner. Nobody is taking Spargo over him either.

Sure players like Moore, Baker and Davies-Uniacke have had better years than Rayner this year, but I still think you take Rayner first.
Redrafting based on output to now with some consideration for future potential (and not considering the mature-aged Tim Kelly or Mihocek) the only players that are definitely taken before Rayner are:
1. Naughton
2. Andrew Brayshaw
3. Adam Cerra

Other than those three his output is still decent enough to put him on equal standing with the majority of other names you listed (and Brisbane took Bailey and Starcevich anyway so they are irrelevant to the discussion. They aren't 'miles ahead' as you stated.

One can reasonably argue that in a re-draft he could go anywhere from 4th pick onwards. He certainly isn't a bust and considering he missed a very important 12 months from a development perspective with a significant injury, his performance this year has been good (without being exceptional).

 

[danster168]

Stop looking at this through red and blue glasses.
Even with hindsight very few people would take Fritcsh or Petty over Rayner. Nobody is taking Spargo over him either.

Sure players like Moore, Baker and Davies-Uniacke have had better years than Rayner this year, but I still think you take Rayner first.
Redrafting based on output to now with some consideration for future potential (and not considering the mature-aged Tim Kelly or Mihocek) the only players that are definitely taken before Rayner are:
1. Naughton
2. Andrew Brayshaw
3. Adam Cerra

Other than those three his output is still decent enough to put him on equal standing with the majority of other names you listed (and Brisbane took Bailey and Starcevich anyway so they are irrelevant to the discussion. They aren't 'miles ahead' as you stated.

One can reasonably argue that in a re-draft he could go anywhere from 4th pick onwards. He certainly isn't a bust and considering he missed a very important 12 months from a development perspective with a significant injury, his performance this year has been good (without being exceptional).

haha, rayner before Fritsch. that's a troll right there

Rayner before any of those 17 guys can't be taken seriously.

Go over to a neutral board and post your thoughts there. You may be in for quite the surprise. You're basing everything off potential.

Tim Kelly is an All-Australian in 2019 for heavens sake and you're saying you'd take Rayner before Tim Kelly? Why? Because he averages 15 possessions and hasn't had a single coaches vote all year?

 

[Sirlemsip]

haha, rayner before Fritsch. that's a troll right there

Rayner before any of those 17 guys can't be taken seriously.

Go over to a neutral board and post your thoughts there. You may be in for quite the surprise. You're basing everything off potential.

Tim Kelly is an All-Australian in 2019 for heavens sake and you're saying you'd take Rayner before Tim Kelly? Why? Because he averages 15 possessions and hasn't had a single coaches vote all year?

You clearly didn't bother to read my post or try to understand it...try again before you get upset next time.

 

[danster168]

You clearly didn't bother to read my post or try to understand it...try again before you get upset next time.

I read the whole thing. twice.

We're talking total value. For Rayner to pass Fritsch he would need to produce like Fritsch has, and Fritsch would have to produce like Rayner has. Because while Rayner has been scrubbing it up for years Fritsch has been producing at a high level. Same as Tim Kelly and the majority of the names I listed.

How could you even compare Rayner to a guy like Dylan Moore is beyond me. Dylan Moore and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison

I listed the 17 names. But let's look at one of them. Dylan Moore. What right has Rayner earned to be placed above him? Dylan Moore is producing at a far higher level. and produced last season too. Also, Tim Kelly who has been an AA. I need you to address both of these players because I don't know what you're trying to say.

If Rayner kicked 6 in a grand final you would be all up and about that he's made it and is a superstar of the game etc. Fritsch has been there and done that.

Rayner has done 0 in his career thus far. 15 touches a game with his midfield time is terrible. He is basically a Tom Sparrow clone. In fact if we compare these 2, they're even. Tom Sparrow and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison

imagine if I came out saying that Sparrow is better than Tim Kelly, Fritsch, Dylan Moore,etc.

You're being sucked into the number 1 draft pick false hope. I know what if feels like. We had Jack Watts. many dees fans had this false sense of security based on where he was taken in the draft. but it never eventuated.

If Rayner was taken at 30 in the draft, we'd be here saying 'yeah, he's had a slow start to his career, but he's showing a few signs here and there. He's got some good traits that are worth persisting with'. As a pick 1 he's an epic fail. So it's all about perspective. You're doing him no favours comparing him to a 59 goal Bailey Fritsch who broke a 20 year old record for goals in a grand final. Rayner couldn't even step up in a big home and away game against melbourne let alone a grand final.

 

[Sirlemsip]

I read the whole thing. twice.

We're talking total value. For Rayner to pass Fritsch he would need to produce like Fritsch has, and Fritsch would have to produce like Rayner has. Because while Rayner has been scrubbing it up for years Fritsch has been producing at a high level. Same as Tim Kelly and the majority of the names I listed.

How could you even compare Rayner to a guy like Dylan Moore is beyond me. Dylan Moore and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison

I listed the 17 names. But let's look at one of them. Dylan Moore. What right has Rayner earned to be placed above him? Dylan Moore is producing at a far higher level. and produced last season too. Also, Tim Kelly who has been an AA. I need you to address both of these players because I don't know what you're trying to say.

If Rayner kicked 6 in a grand final you would be all up and about that he's made it and is a superstar of the game etc. Fritsch has been there and done that.

Rayner has done 0 in his career thus far. 15 touches a game with his midfield time is terrible. He is basically a Tom Sparrow clone. In fact if we compare these 2, they're even. Tom Sparrow and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison

imagine if I came out saying that Sparrow is better than Tim Kelly, Fritsch, Dylan Moore,etc.

You're being sucked into the number 1 draft pick false hope. I know what if feels like. We had Jack Watts. many dees fans had this false sense of security based on where he was taken in the draft. but it never eventuated.

If Rayner was taken at 30 in the draft, we'd be here saying 'yeah, he's had a slow start to his career, but he's showing a few signs here and there. He's got some good traits that are worth persisting with'. As a pick 1 he's an epic fail. So it's all about perspective. You're doing him no favours comparing him to a 59 goal Bailey Fritsch who broke a 20 year old record for goals in a grand final. Rayner couldn't even step up in a big home and away game against melbourne let alone a grand final.

I don't know why you keep bringing up Tim Kelly.
When he played his first game of AFL he was more than a year older than Cam Rayner is right now.

I never said Fritsch was a bad player. He is a very good player and was one of the best players in the GF. But he also has some absolutely crap games:
Round 8 2022 - 4 kicks, 1 goal, 1 tackle - putrid effort
Round 2 2022 - 2 kicks, 3 hb, 1 goal, no tackles - surprised he stayed in the team for the following week.
He's inconsistent, as most players are when they are 21/22 years old.

As a Hawks fan, Dylan Moore has been one of the few shining lights for us this year - very happy with his output.
But if you go back and look at what people were saying at the end of 2020, many were thinking that he should have been delisted.
It was only in 2021 that he showed what he was capable of - the same year that Cam Rayner may have done the same if not for his ACL.

Not everyone bursts out of the blocks the way that a Sam Walsh or Bailey Smith does.

Rayner is a very good player, definitely AFL standard, and assuming he has no further significant injuries he will be a 200+ game player.
Is he going to be the best player from his draft class? At this rate probably not.
Is he going to be the best midfielder from his draft class? Also seems unlikely.

But to come out and say 'As a pick 1 he's an epic fail' is both premature and childish.

 

[danster168]

I don't know why you keep bringing up Tim Kelly.
When he played his first game of AFL he was more than a year older than Cam Rayner is right now.

I never said Fritsch was a bad player. He is a very good player and was one of the best players in the GF. But he also has some absolutely crap games:
Round 8 2022 - 4 kicks, 1 goal, 1 tackle - putrid effort
Round 2 2022 - 2 kicks, 3 hb, 1 goal, no tackles - surprised he stayed in the team for the following week.
He's inconsistent, as most players are when they are 21/22 years old.

As a Hawks fan, Dylan Moore has been one of the few shining lights for us this year - very happy with his output.
But if you go back and look at what people were saying at the end of 2020, many were thinking that he should have been delisted.
It was only in 2021 that he showed what he was capable of - the same year that Cam Rayner may have done the same if not for his ACL.

Not everyone bursts out of the blocks the way that a Sam Walsh or Bailey Smith does.

Rayner is a very good player, definitely AFL standard, and assuming he has no further significant injuries he will be a 200+ game player.
Is he going to be the best player from his draft class? At this rate probably not.
Is he going to be the best midfielder from his draft class? Also seems unlikely.

But to come out and say 'As a pick 1 he's an epic fail' is both premature and childish.

I was agreeing with everything you said until you said Rayner is a 'very good AFL player.' Under what metric is he a 'very good' afl player. At this stage he is a 'very average' afl player if you factor in almost every single statistical metric as well as coaches votes, Brownlow votes, best and fairest finish.. everything. He will finish horrifically in every single category. How could you categorically say that he is better than Tom Sparrow? How? Sparrow gets more of the football with less opportunity. is much better defensively and has produced on the big stage.

with regards to Tim Kelly, yes, he was a mature aged recruit. That doesn't mean it wasn't a great choice. Tom Stewart was also a mature aged recruit. That doesn't mean he shouldn't have gone top 3 in his draft. You had pick 1, you could've picked anyone. Tim Kelly has never produced a season worse than Rayner.

Also games played is not a metric that can be used to assign value to a player. Watts played 174 games of nothingness.

Also, you showed Fritsch played some bad games. did you not read the post where I showed you that Naughton also played some bad games. so what's your point? Naughton is bad too?

Fritsch is top 10 in the AFL for goals. and one of the straightest kicks in the comp. These players don't get dropped. Just goes to show that you don't watch much football.

 

[La Dispute]

I have no skin in this game, I'm just here for the danster and Meteoric showdown.

The best part is they're both right.

Rayner is a really disappointing Pick 1, Bayley Fritsch is a confirmed front runner being propped up by an elite midfield. Eventually when the Dees head down the ladder Fritsch is going to revert back to being a run-of-the-mill mid-sized forward.

I'm taking Fritsch for 2022, maybe 2023, but it's a tough call beyond that - Rayner's shown some serious glimpses as an inside mid, but just can't sustain his effort on a week-to-week basis.

 

[scott_the_man]

Rayner is only 22 and missed a whole year from an ACL. Fritsch is 25 and has played 100+ games as well as plenty of senior VFL footy before that. It's silly to even
compare the two. Wait until Rayner has had a better run at it first. Unless your name is dan then it's very easy to see that Rayner has nowhere near fulfilled his potential yet. He's building.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don't know why you keep bringing up Tim Kelly.
When he played his first game of AFL he was more than a year older than Cam Rayner is right now.

I never said Fritsch was a bad player. He is a very good player and was one of the best players in the GF. But he also has some absolutely crap games:
Round 8 2022 - 4 kicks, 1 goal, 1 tackle - putrid effort
Round 2 2022 - 2 kicks, 3 hb, 1 goal, no tackles - surprised he stayed in the team for the following week.
He's inconsistent, as most players are when they are 21/22 years old.

As a Hawks fan, Dylan Moore has been one of the few shining lights for us this year - very happy with his output.
But if you go back and look at what people were saying at the end of 2020, many were thinking that he should have been delisted.
It was only in 2021 that he showed what he was capable of - the same year that Cam Rayner may have done the same if not for his ACL.

Not everyone bursts out of the blocks the way that a Sam Walsh or Bailey Smith does.

Rayner is a very good player, definitely AFL standard, and assuming he has no further significant injuries he will be a 200+ game player.
Is he going to be the best player from his draft class? At this rate probably not.
Is he going to be the best midfielder from his draft class? Also seems unlikely.

But to come out and say 'As a pick 1 he's an epic fail' is both premature and childish.

* If short of time, just read the part I have bolded below.

The part of your post I bolded - never a truer word.

The trouble is Fritsch isn’t that age. He was a mature aged recruit and is right in his prime now at 25 years 7 months - 3 years older than Rayner and most of the 2017 draft class. He actually belongs to the 2014 draft class. So we can more easily compare him to players the same age….

P McCartin, Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, DeGoey, Peter Wright, Darcy Moore, Lever, K Langford, Heeney, D McKenzie, Steele, T Miller, Maynard, Neal-Bullen, M McGovern, B Dale, C Daniel, Pittonet, Ed Langdon, Dougal Howard, Harris Andrews, Dan Butler, J Finlayson, Rielly O’Brien, Jayden Short, and mature agers Adam Saad, K Lambert.

It would not be certain you could find 10 lesser players than Fritsch on that list of 27 for contract and trade value. But you will certainly find 12-15 with higher value. In fact judging by careers and last years Melbourne B & F rankings, Fritsch is not even in Melbourne’s top 5 players from that draft year, and I am not making that up. Petracca, Ang Brayshaw, Lever, Langdon and Neal-Bullen have all either had far better careers than Fritsch to date, or beat Fritsch in the 2021 B & F when Fritsch had the season Dan keeps raving about. So how could the campaigner possibly be worth pick 4 in any draft when he is not even in the top 5 players at his own club from his own draft class? That question shows just how wayward Dan’s assessment of Fritsch is.

The reason Fritsch is inconsistent isn’t his age, it is that he is wholly reliant upon easy opportunities being fed to him to have any impact, because he wins an incredibly low amount of contests. He creates no crumbs. Supplies next to no defensive pressure. And is now developing a nasty aversion to sharing the ball when it is given to him on a platter.

Jokes aside, I agree with you he is a good AFL player, but is not worth anything near a top 10 pick.

The reason Rayner is worth way more than Fritsch is because he can win the ball in big contests both in the air and on the ground. He can split packs open. There are not that many players in the AFL who can do that better than Rayner already and he is only 22yo, and coming off a year out of the game with an ACL. We don’t know how good he is going to be, but he can already do things most cannot.

When Dan says in a later post that if Rayner kicked 6 in a GF the media would be heaping praise on him, he is correct. Because they would be 6 goals most players couldn’t replicate. This is why everyone went nuts about Dustin Martin’s 4 goals 2020 GF(in 80% normal match time.). And nobody went nuts about Fritsch’s 6 goals in the 2021 GF, Dan aside. Because the least of Martin’s 4 goals had a greater degree of difficulty than the toughest of Fritsch’s 6 goals. Fritsch’s fabled 20 year record breaking feat of kicking 6 in a GF is rarely mentioned in despatches simply because the goals were more or less put on a platter for him. He did a great job of taking his opportunities, but 5 contested possessions and no contested marks tells a story. And 6 goals and 1 goal assist in a GF is not going to be so rare in a post stand rule AFL in any event. Charlie Cameron for eg recorded a 4 goal 5 goals assist game v the same opponent(Bulldogs) the other day when he, like Fritsch in the GF took advantage of a nice mismatch.

Anyway, I am sure I am saying nothing you don’t already know. Just wanted to restate a few things for those coming late to the party, because I know Dan won’t.

 

[Milux]

At the end of the day Rayner needs to improve. There is no doubting that. I think most lions fans had this year written off anyways so he can get back into the swing of it. Do we want to see a bull at the stopages and some good goals. For sure. The talent is there. But the slow burn is on. Hope he can reach his ceiling before his time is up.

I don't think its a dire as Dan does. But he's entitled to his opinion. Not sure why he keeps banging on about it though. Maybe he loves him deep down.