Cam Rayner

[royboy2]

 

[Elixuh]

had to go pretty far back in the archives to find this one. definitely not from tonight.

Cool you beat us with some questionable umpiring decisions and half our list injured. Nice one. I don't even get the Lever decision at the end. What was the decision called for?

Half your list injured? Goodwin made 0 changes for tonight's game. We made 4.

Imagine blaming it on injuries when you go into a game with an unchanged team

 

[Meteoric Rise]

lol. yeah because 6 goals in a granny, with many of them when we needed them, is downhill? laughable.

look, Brisbane had a good win tonight and they delayed their season 1 more week but to suggest Fritsch is a downhill skier is literally the opposite of what he is.

Hilarious. Wins 5 contested possessions and zero contested marks in a GF playing on dead set spuds and you think he is the second coming of Dusty.

 

[danster168]

These are from my first two posts on the thread. It would have been clear from the outset I was talking about rating current trade value, and I even later took you to task for rating the players’ value based on what they had achieved so far.

You were invited to rate the players based on current value. If you didn’t understand that then it wasn’t because it wasn’t made clear to you. Regardless, there is nothing Rayner has done or failed to do so far that will have a big bearing on who is seen to have had the better career overall once all their careers have ended. He is tracking well, especially for a player who did an ACL wiping out his 4th year and no doubt affecting his 5th year.

So all you are basically saying is that at some point in the next 10 years Rayner will produce a season that is top 10 in this draft? Wow, big statement! Considering Fritsch has already reached the mountain tops by making the AA squad and kicking back to back 50+ goals then it means that he's already won then no?

I don't really get what you're saying. I've never said Rayner ceiling isn't higher than Spargo's. but having a higher ceiling doesn't mean that your total draft value is higher. Otherwise that's like saying Tom Boyd was the best in his draft after the 2016 grand final despite not doing anything else in his career. When you can freeze point at a time that suits you, it means nothing. Total draft value needs to be the evaluation. i.e. 'if they did Rayners draft again, where would he go?' And I comfortably stand by all of my numbers. And Fritsch comfortably in the top few.

 

[danster168]

Half your list injured? Goodwin made 0 changes for tonight's game. We made 4.

Imagine blaming it on injuries when you go into a game with an unchanged team

yeah, lets rest Gawn, Petracca, Fritsch, Oliver, Spargo and Lever and replace them with a full healthy Joel Smith, Moniz-Wakefield, Taj Woewodin, Jacob Van-Royen, Mitch Brown and Jake Bowey. :S

 

[Elixuh]

yeah, lets rest Gawn, Petracca, Fritsch, Oliver, Spargo and Lever and replace them with a full healthy Joel Smith, Moniz-Wakefield, Taj Woewodin, Jacob Van-Royen, Mitch Brown and Jake Bowey. :S

Goodwin said they're good to go. Imagine thinking your team is the only team with players playing through niggling injuries or that no other team has injuries. Embarrassing excuse.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So all you are basically saying is that at some point in the next 10 years Rayner will produce a season that is top 10 in this draft? Wow, big statement! Considering Fritsch has already reached the mountain tops by making the AA squad and kicking back to back 50+ goals then it means that he's already won then no?

I don't really get what you're saying. I've never said Rayner ceiling isn't higher than Spargo's. but having a higher ceiling doesn't mean that your total draft value is higher. Otherwise that's like saying Tom Boyd was the best in his draft after the 2016 grand final despite not doing anything else in his career. When you can freeze point at a time that suits you, it means nothing. Total draft value needs to be the evaluation. i.e. 'if they did Rayners draft again, where would he go?' And I comfortably stand by all of my numbers. And Fritsch comfortably in the top few.

Mate the part you have highlighted says it all. You don’t get it. If you are being asked to rate a previous draft for current trade value then you need to consider what the player is worth right now in terms of what he produces overall in the future. Otherwise Scott Pendlebury would be rated as having a higher trade value right now than Nick Daicos.

If you spilled all those players now and re-ordered them, nobody is going to rate 30yo Mihocek as being more valuable than 22yo Rayner. It has nothing to do with one off seasons or imagined ceilings or Tom Boyd’s mental health issues. It is an assessment of the current trade value of each player.

In any event I am happy to back Rayner to have one of the 10 strongest careers of his draft class.

Fritsch you just have way wrong as has been pointed out to you. Based in his own club’s 2021 B&F count in Fritsch’s best year, and what the players have achieved in their careers, Fritsch is the SIXTH BEST AT MELBOURNE from his natural draft year of 2014 behind Petracca, Brayshaw, Lever, Neal-Bullen and Langdon. So he is never going to be worth anywhere near pick 4 in any draft if he isn’t in his own club’s best 5 players from his natural draft year. But you know this already Dan, because we have told you. . And he got what, 2 Coaches Votes this season. Pick 4….

 

[danster168]

Mate the part you have highlighted says it all. You don’t get it. If you are being asked to rate a previous draft for current trade value then you need to consider what the player is worth right now in terms of what he produces overall in the future. Otherwise Scott Pendlebury would be rated as having a higher trade value right now than Nick Daicos.

If you spilled all those players now and re-ordered them, nobody is going to rate 30yo Mihocek as being more valuable than 22yo Rayner. It has nothing to do with one off seasons or imagined ceilings or Tom Boyd’s mental health issues. It is an assessment of the current trade value of each player.

In any event I am happy to back Rayner to have one of the 10 strongest careers of his draft class.

Fritsch you just have way wrong as has been pointed out to you. Based in his own club’s 2021 B&F count in Fritsch’s best year, and what the players have achieved in their careers, Fritsch is the SIXTH BEST AT MELBOURNE from his natural draft year of 2014 behind Petracca, Brayshaw, Lever, Neal-Bullen and Langdon. So he is never going to be worth anywhere near pick 4 in any draft if he isn’t in his own club’s best 5 players from his natural draft year. But you know this already Dan, because we have told you. . And he got what, 2 Coaches Votes this season. Pick 4….

The current trade value idea suits your narrative because people like the idea of what Rayner could become. People will always pay up for potential. Hell, North was offered 3 first round picks for Jason Horne-Francis. that's more than what Petracca would get lol. So JHF > Petracca. LOL. But in terms of overall draft value, if you're willing to concede that draft value doesn't equate to overall value then we can agree on that and call it a day.
LOL uou slammed fritsch all season long and then he made the AA squad. that gives me daily lols. You didn't even had the decency to acknowledge you were wrong.
And then you mention Fritsch's BnF result yet fail to acknowledge that we had one of the best ruckman whose ever lived in Gawn, one of the best midfielders in the game in Oliver and Petracca as well as the back to back AA fullback in May. But yeah, let's not acknowledge that. lolz. 6th is a great effort.

Come back to me when Rayner gets in the AA squad or finishes anywhere notable in a BnF

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The current trade value idea suits your narrative because people like the idea of what Rayner could become. People will always pay up for potential. Hell, Jason Horn-Francis was offered 3 first round picks. that's more than what Petracca would get lol. So JHF > Petracca. LOL. But in terms of overall draft value, if you're willing to concede that draft value doesn't equate to overall value then we can agree on that and call it a day.
LOL uou slammed fritsch all season long and then he made the AA squad. that gives me daily lols. You didn't even had the decency to acknowledge you were wrong.
And then you mention Fritsch's BnF result yet fail to acknowledge that we had one of the best ruckman whose ever lived in Gawn, one of the best midfielders in the game in Oliver and Petracca as well as the back to back AA fullback in May. But yeah, let's not acknowledge that. lolz. 6th is a great effort.

Come back to me when Rayner gets in the AA squad or finishes anywhere notable in a BnF

My assessment of Fritsch’s value does not gain or lose credibility based on what AA selectors thought. His inclusion in the squad was highly questionable imo. But the same AA selectors brought us Stengle over Papley and Charlie Cameron, Stewart over Sicily, Blicavs over 250 players who are better in their positions than he is in any position he plays. I mean seriously are you ever picking Blicavs over Marcus Bontempelli? You only had to watch them play week 1 finals to get the once and forever answer to that. This process is not credible and not even close to credible. If a player is an undisputed AA like May or Oliver this year, sure. But tbh most of the selections in both the squad and final team were debatable this year, so I wouldn’t put too much store in it.

 

[danster168]

My assessment of Fritsch’s value does not gain or lose credibility based on what AA selectors thought. His inclusion in the squad was highly questionable imo. But the same AA selectors brought us Stengle over Papley and Charlie Cameron, Stewart over Sicily, Blicavs over 250 players who are better in theor positions than he is in any position he plays. I mean seriously are you ever picking Blicavs over Marcus Bontempelli? You only had to watch them play week 1 finals to get the once and forever answer to that. This process is not credible and not even close to credible. If a player is an undisputed AA like May or Oliver this year, sure. But tbh most of the selections in both the squad and final team were debatable this year, so I wouldn’t put too much store in it.

haha. lol. ok champ. There's bad players in the AA squad

Well Rayner may make it into the honourable list of bad players one day. He's already failed as a midfielder, and hasn't made it as a forward so unsure which position he'd take

 

[PTizzle]

had to go pretty far back in the archives to find this one. definitely not from tonight.

Cool you beat us with some questionable umpiring decisions and half our list injured. Nice one. I don't even get the Lever decision at the end. What was the decision called for?

It's from round 22...

'Questionable umpiring' is a biased cop-out and injuries are a bit of a desperate excuse considering who the Lions were missing. Also not really relevant to Cam Rayner I would've thought!

 

[Kanye West]

Not in the same universe as Naughton or Brayshaw. Doubt you’d take him before Cerra or LDU.
Still, has shown consistent improvement & looks capable of being a better than average AFL level player. Could be one of those types who really blooms in his middle to late 20’s.
Plenty worse in that top 20 of 2017.

Shit, there is worse, much worse in the top 3!

Sadly for Cam though, he is a planet away from the guy picked directly after him!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

s**t, there is worse, much worse in the top 3!

Sadly for Cam though, he is a planet away from the guy picked directly after him!

It is a good way to look at it actually.

Rayner is clearly going better than 7 of the top 14 picks from the 2017 draft so far in his career. Dow, Stephenson, Coffield, O’Brien, Bonar, Brander and Ling.

He might be somewhere around parity with Fogarty and Clark all things considered.

Leaving only Brayshaw, Uniacke, Cerra, Naughton clearly ahead of his so far of the top 14 picks. If you extended it to the top 20 picks there might only be another couple ahead of where Rayner is right now, though that is looking debatable.

McGrath the preceding pick 1 in the 2016 would barely be doing better versus his draft class, certainly not if you allow for Rayner doing an ACL at a critical time.

 

[augie]

Let’s bookmark that then and we can come back and revisit. danster168 said pick 30. I said pick 9. You say approx pick 16-28 range.

Do you think his value has increased or decreased this season, or stayed around a similar level?

I don't think it has changed much. I feel next year is shaping as critical for him. If he has the same or marginally better then his value will drop quite a bit. If he substantially improves his consistency, both in and between games, then your pick 9 is closer to the mark.

All academic because I can't see Brisbane trading him.

 

[00Stinger]

You know the bar has been set low for a number 1 pick when his 12 possession, 1 clearance an 0.1 hit on the scoreboard is being heralded. And that point was from 25m out directly in front

 

[MisterMarcus]

yeah, lets rest Gawn, Petracca, Fritsch, Oliver, Spargo and Lever and replace them with a full healthy Joel Smith, Moniz-Wakefield, Taj Woewodin, Jacob Van-Royen, Mitch Brown and Jake Bowey. :S

It's not Brisbane's fault if you have no depth and have to go in playing underdone players....

 

[campbell]

Half your list injured? Goodwin made 0 changes for tonight's game. We made 4.

Imagine blaming it on injuries when you go into a game with an unchanged team

They took their eye off the ball. They disrespected their opposition.
They thought they had it won prior to showing up.

A lesson to be had, for all teams.

 

[rye]

You know the bar has been set low for a number 1 pick when his 12 possession, 1 clearance an 0.1 hit on the scoreboard is being heralded. And that point was from 25m out directly in front

I don't think he was anywhere near bog by any means last night

But his tackling, pressure and defensive efforts were great, which is an aspect he has usually lacked in his game. That smother was tremendous

I'm very bullish on what he can do with a full uninterrupted preseason under his belt if it can all be put together

On SM-A536E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cubs2Lions]

You know the bar has been set low for a number 1 pick when his 12 possession, 1 clearance an 0.1 hit on the scoreboard is being heralded. And that point was from 25m out directly in front

 

[scott_the_man]

he applies defensive pressure, something Rayner can't do.

Spargo - 8 pressure acts and 1 tackle

Rayner - 12 pressure acts and 5 tackles

?

 

[scott_the_man]

lol. yeah because 6 goals in a granny, with many of them when we needed them, is downhill? laughable.

look, Brisbane had a good win tonight and they delayed their season 1 more week but to suggest Fritsch is a downhill skier is literally the opposite of what he is.

Fritsch's lack of physicality stood out like dogs nuts last night.

In a game where physicallity and ability to win contests was paramount, he looked out of his depth.
He excels in games where there's no contest and he gets easy uncontested ball. Down hill skiier is the right word.

 

[Alesana]

Seriously my team has just lost straight sets in the final. Have some class. Last thing I want to do is enter a conversation about a fringe Brisbane player that did nothing in the game. Happy to talk about him if he contributed. He was supposed to be the next Petracca and Petracca played twice the game on a broken leg.

A Melbourne supporter telling someone to have some class ahahahahahaahah

 

[PieLebo87]

had to go pretty far back in the archives to find this one. definitely not from tonight.

Cool you beat us with some questionable umpiring decisions and half our list injured. Nice one. I don't even get the Lever decision at the end. What was the decision called for?

Never change danster168 , never change.

 

[PieLebo87]

Mate Fritsch is the SIXTH BEST AT MELBOURNE from his natural draft year of 2014 behind Petracca, Brayshaw, Lever, Neal-Bullen and Langdon.

ANB ahead of Fritsch? Lay off the crack pipe my brother!

 

[Nunez]

Rayner was a physical presence and killed the ball numerous times last week. Was there to play a pressure high half forward role alongside Bailey and McCarthy. As a group they did a very good job killing the ball and creating stoppages/poor kicks. He played his role incredibly well, even though it was not his night to have 20 touches.