Contracted Cameron Rayner [re-signed until 2023]

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Really?/ you missed Naughton??/

Not like Freo wouldn’t have known about him either.

Big go home risk with those 2.
Lol I’ll take Brayshaw and Cerra
Obviously Coffield and Clark are better as well, and that’s probably 4 of the top 5 if their were a re-draft, along with Tim Kelly. Liam Ryan, Noah Balta and Aaron Naughton would be amongst the next few picks.
 
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Nunez

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You do get the feeling Rayner might be better to change clubs to maximise his potential and could benefit Lions with a good pick
Absolutely no chance of that happening. For one, we've got a great track record of developing players in the past few years. Secondly, Cam loves it in Brisbane and will extend. Is going nowhere.
 

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weevil

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You do get the feeling Rayner might be better to change clubs to maximise his potential and could benefit Lions with a good pick
If you don’t really watch Brisbane or Rayner I suppose you might have that feeling, but it's about a billion miles away from the situation as it stands.

He is a high impact player when he can get to the contest. His tank started way, way behind, but he is diligently working at it.

Will be a super damaging player in a couple of years, Fagan knows it and backs him all the way. Absolutely zero percent chance of going anywhere.
 

schmuttt

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Wouldn’t make sense for the Lions to trade him anyway, you’d back your development to turn him into a gun rather than ship him off for pick 15-20.
 

THE_GUN

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I personally rated Rayner very highly in his draft and have watched him a bit, But i must say he has been extremely disappointing with what he has so far produced in his 3 years.

Players that he needs to be compared to are the likes of Dustin Martin , Jordan De Goey & Cristian Petracca with their talents and ability as well as the positions they play and draft position. But when you do a player comparison with all 3 he is not near any of them at the same age and after 3 years you would expect a big improvement but his output in his 1st year was better than his current season.

Now when you also add in the improvement in the team and personnel of the lions this gets even worse as there should be a massive jump.
looking at what he has produced his value would not be any better than pick #15 and if he produces another year similar to 2020 and after 4 years you would be thinking even less.

2020 stats
17 games
9.8 poss
3 tackles
1 goal

Career stats
11 poss
0.9 goals
2.5 tackles
 

JasRulz63

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Players that he needs to be compared to are the likes of Dustin Martin , Jordan De Goey & Cristian Petracca with their talents and ability as well as the positions they play and draft position. But when you do a player comparison with all 3 he is not near any of them at the same age and after 3 years you would expect a big improvement but his output in his 1st year was better than his current season.
I think the biggest difference between the three players you listed and Rayner, is that the three you listed all played as midfielders in their draft years, whereas Rayner has always played as a forward that had stints in the midfield.

So in the case of Martin and Petracca, when they started at AFL level, they started in the forward line and adjusted to playing in the midfield.

Rayner hasn't really shown the ability to play midfield the same way as those three, whether it be at U18 or AFL level.
 

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Damon_3388

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I think the biggest difference between the three players you listed and Rayner, is that the three you listed all played as midfielders in their draft years, whereas Rayner has always played as a forward that had stints in the midfield.

So in the case of Martin and Petracca, when they started at AFL level, they started in the forward line and adjusted to playing in the midfield.

Rayner hasn't really shown the ability to play midfield the same way as those three, whether it be at U18 or AFL level.
This was a pre-draft profile of Rayner, from Footyology:

1603752250159.png

1603752287466.png


Also, from AFL.DraftCentral.com.au:

1603752550122.png


That's very similar to what you would have read about Petracca prior to his draft, too. I think there's always been an expectation that Rayner will develop his tank and become more of a midfielder over time. He's got time on his side to do that (still a few years way from even entering his prime), but I think people would like to have seen a bit more progress in that direction than has occurred so far.
 

JasRulz63

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This was a pre-draft profile of Rayner, from Footyology:

View attachment 996265
View attachment 996267

Also, from AFL.DraftCentral.com.au:

View attachment 996274

That's very similar to what you would have read about Petracca prior to his draft, too. I think there's always been an expectation that Rayner will develop his tank and become more of a midfielder over time. He's got time on his side to do that (still a few years way from even entering his prime), but I think people would like to have seen a bit more progress in that direction than has occurred so far.
We always drafted him with the intention of starting him forward, while developing his ability to rotate through the midfield as opposed to being a full time midfielder.

“Cam’s an explosive, powerful, half forward that can play some midfield. He’s been touted as a No. 1, really since his U16's, he’s always been a highly regarded player. He’s still a player that’s developing his midfield craft but he’ll start forward of the ball and he’ll end up being a forward that can roll through the midfield. He’s an exciting player.”


Conversely, Petracca was playing predominantly midfield during his U18 year.

Pick 1 – St Kilda: Christian Petracca (Vic Metro, balanced midfielder/general forward)

186 cm, 92 kg, 4/1/96
Range: Top 5
Comparison: Dustin Martin

Going into 2014 there were question marks over Petracca and he’s answered them emphatically, doing everything he possibly could have to prove that he will be a high level AFL midfielder. He has the versatility to play as a stay at home marking forward or half forward to a high standard while also being an excellent midfielder. Despite carrying much more weight than most midfielders his age he has elite agility and evasion with an excellent sprint. He’s dominant aerially, possessing an exceptional read of the ball and ability to position himself. One on one he is rarely beaten and clunks more contested marks than any other midfielder in the crop. Through the middle he’s an above average accumulator with a booming kick and good vision. His ability to hit the scoreboard while playing through the middle is excellent.

While Petracca has lost weight this year he’s still carrying too much ‘useless’ weight and needs to further work on getting down to an appropriate playing weight. His strength and power is natural so losing the excess bulk should not impact heavily upon those strengths. He also needs to improve his endurance – while it is currently at an acceptable level it isn’t a strength. By foot he’s capable of hitting the right areas but lacks precision at times and occasionally blindly bombs it forward instead of assessing the options with composure.

Right now there are still doubts over whether Petracca’s performances are through brute strength or translatable ability. His athletic testing indicates that despite having the weight he’s also got exceptional natural athleticism which will translate to AFL level. He lacks the natural touch and talent of a Dustin Martin but is a more disciplined player both on and off the field. Right now I see him as a higher level Colin Sylvia. Perhaps he is what Sylvia could have been with a better attitude and work rate as well as starting out his career at a club with a better system.

I personally think he's tracking along okay at the moment, with the next few years being important to see if he can have more of a consistent impact on the game (both up forward and in the midfield).
 

Damon_3388

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No.

Mitch Hannan.
More an indictment on Hannan and Melbourne TBH, that you'd persist with a middle-aged (in football terms) guy whose output is like that, and doesn't project to have a much higher ceiling than he's shown already.

At least Rayner is doing what he's doing in the earliest part of his career, and still has clear scope to improve.
 
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Tom14

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More an endictment on Hannan and Melbourne TBH, that you'd persist with a middle-aged (in football terms) guy whose output is like that, and doesn't project to have a much higher ceiling than he's shown already.

At least Rayner is doing what he's doing in the earliest part of his career, and still has clear scope to improve.
I think the last part is the critical point. If rayner is still an 8 posession a game forward etc in 2 years then my opinion will change markedly. But he's only just turned 21 in the last week and you can see his quality. He's definitely not #1 in a redraft, but I'm not too worried about him yet.

The query over him is going to be whether he can consistently get enough of the ball to impact the game more consistently. I'd like to see him get a bunch more uncontested cheap footy which will rely on his tank further improving.
 

THE_GUN

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I think the biggest difference between the three players you listed and Rayner, is that the three you listed all played as midfielders in their draft years, whereas Rayner has always played as a forward that had stints in the midfield.

So in the case of Martin and Petracca, when they started at AFL level, they started in the forward line and adjusted to playing in the midfield.

Rayner hasn't really shown the ability to play midfield the same way as those three, whether it be at U18 or AFL level.
Martin didnt have a massive tank to play midfield in his first 2-3 years and was mainly played foward with stints in the midfield , Rayner has now had 3 years and should have the tank to go through the middle atleast 40%-50% of the game.

2021 will be an interesting year and if as you mention he is playing only foward then his output is low for what is expected for a 3rd year physically developed bull.

Jack Higgins drafted in the same draft at pick #17 and has had a massive brain issue that was not expected to play this year and with virtually no pre season is statistically ahead of rayner who was pick #1
 

weevil

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I think there's always been an expectation that Rayner will develop his tank and become more of a midfielder over time. He's got time on his side to do that (still a few years way from even entering his prime), but I think people would like to have seen a bit more progress in that direction than has occurred so far.
Would love him to, but he just does not have the physical capability to run enough yet. Within the confines of his aerobic capacity, he is developing extremely well.

He is getting bigger and stronger and is noticeably starting to dominate more opponents in contests. Not happening all the time yet, but he is still only a kid. In a few years’ time he will be ragdolling a lot of players.

The big change in his game though is his ability to execute. He used to go for everything but was never quite able to pull it off. He is the opposite now, is fantastic at converting chances into scores or score assists and is able to do it in clutch situations.

He is doing that to the point where he can be a genuinely influential player with minimal numbers.

He looks entirely capable of being a super player, but we will never get anything than patches until he can run. But that is just a matter of time.
 
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Trav 20

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More an endictment on Hannan and Melbourne TBH, that you'd persist with a middle-aged (in football terms) guy whose output is like that, and doesn't project to have a much higher ceiling than he's shown already.

At least Rayner is doing what he's doing in the earliest part of his career, and still has clear scope to improve.
You do realise there are 44 players roughly on a list ? The guy has played 50 games and kicked the sealer in a final against Geelong and averages a goal a game.

Why do you think Footscray has offered him a 3 year deal to move ?

Btw, it's ''indictment''.
 

Damon_3388

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You do realise there are 44 players roughly on a list ? The guy has played 50 games and kicked the sealer in a final against Geelong and averages a goal a game.

Why do you think Footscray has offered him a 3 year deal to move ?

Btw, it's ''indictment''.
Yeah you're not really convincing anyone that he's anything more than bog average.
 

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