Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[hawkman]

Looks like this thread will be taking a break for a year

Unlikely, whatever happens both sides will use the unique circumstances to justify their argument

 

[matey]

The way the Hawks dismantled the Lions ..... far from a bottom 4 side and the doom and gloom predicted by so many. Keep hoping and preying!

 

[Gralin]

The way the Hawks dismantled the Lions ..... far from a bottom 4 side and the doom and gloom predicted by so many. Keep hoping and preying!

It's one ****ing game.
We won but I can't take much in the way of form out of a game the players would have known was meaningless

 

[RUNVS]

The way the Hawks dismantled the Lions ..... far from a bottom 4 side and the doom and gloom predicted by so many. Keep hoping and preying!

The age of your best 22 is more of a long term issue rather than an issue in 2020. It is a bigger issue in 2022.

Generally speaking though, if you are a top 4 team in terms of age of your best 22 you want to be competing for the flag.

 

[Gralin]

The age of your best 22 is more of a long term issue rather than an issue in 2020. It is a bigger issue in 2022.

Generally speaking though, if you are a top 4 team in terms of age of your best 22 you want to be competing for the flag.

The age of our team this year is less than an issue it will be in two years? Wait are we not having any list turn over for two years?

 

[matey]

It's one ******* game.
We won but I can't take much in the way of form out of a game the players would have known was meaningless

And thats your ******* opinion!

We have transitioned and built a new playing group quickly, with some depth and all this without elite end draft picks. Optimism rarely sits side by side with reality unless you are a Carlton supporter during Xmas.

 

[Pessimistic]

Rebuild will ramp up after 2022.

other clubs not paying their players though...not sure that’s wise between us.

 

[Gralin]

And thats your ******* opinion!

We have transitioned and built a new playing group quickly, with some depth and all this without elite end draft picks. Optimism rarely sits side by side with reality unless you are a Carlton supporter during Xmas.

It's one game. You can't predict a trend based off one game.
First round is not the round you pick form off and this wasn't even a normal first round.
There were nice signs but don't go spending the next 3 months being cocky based off one game

 

[hawkman]

It's one game. You can't predict a trend based off one game.
First round is not the round you pick form off and this wasn't even a normal first round.
There were nice signs but don't go spending the next 3 months being cocky based off one game

Agreed but just imagine this thread for the next 3 months if we had lost the game

 

[matey]

It's one game. You can't predict a trend based off one game.
First round is not the round you pick form off and this wasn't even a normal first round.
There were nice signs but don't go spending the next 3 months being cocky based off one game

Given what the club has done in transitioning the list quickly since the three peat .... I am in the optimistic camp rather than being cocky. However there are plenty on here that would not even consider optimism an option! But that’s ok who wants to be people’s second favourite team because you know what that brings.

 

[Hawk_francais]

It's one ******* game.
We won but I can't take much in the way of form out of a game the players would have known was meaningless

Agreed, I still enjoyed the win but round one throws up some shonky results at the best of times. Freo absolutely smacked North by 80 points in round 1 last year, and then finished one spot below them on the ladder (not to mention both coaches sacked!). The season is long.

 

[hk89]

The age of your best 22 is more of a long term issue rather than an issue in 2020. It is a bigger issue in 2022.

The reality is that we could very have easily gone into this season without Burgoyne (if he'd taken the GC offer) , and without Poppy (who was given a contract at the last minute, probably after we couldn't find a better option in terms of small forwards). If they'd both left, and we replaced them with 18 year olds, we'd only just scrape into the top 4 for oldest best 22 on the weekend. When being oldest hinges around keeping a couple of players, that could have very easily left, I think the age thing is massively overblown. Much more important than your average age is IMO how many of your older guys are propping up the team compared to the contributions you are getting from the younger guys. If you are heavily reliant on those older players, then sure, what happens in 2 years time is much scarier.

The older blokes in general tend to carry more load in most teams, because if they were shit players they'd not have had a long career, but I don't think we are particularly lop sided in this area, the 6 players on the list that are 31 or older are:
Burgoyne
Poppy
Henderson,
Frawley,
Smith,
Stratton.

Sure, there are some important players in there (particularly from a structural viewpoint) but very few of them are the top level contributors week-in-week-out, or seen as likely AA selections at this stage of their careers. Only 2 of those 6 were in our top 10 at the B&F (Henderson, and Stratton, who was very lucky to scrape into 10th).

I think teams like Geelong, have been much more reliant on their upper age players to get wins, even if they don't have has many in the 29+ bracket compared to us.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

The reality is that we could very have easily gone into this season without Burgoyne (if he'd taken the GC offer) , and without Poppy (who was given a contract at the last minute, probably after we couldn't find a better option in terms of small forwards). If they'd both left, and we replaced them with 18 year olds, we'd only just scrape into the top 4 for oldest best 22 on the weekend. When being oldest hinges around keeping a couple of players, that could have very easily left, I think the age thing is massively overblown. Much more important than your average age is IMO how many of your older guys are propping up the team compared to the contributions you are getting from the younger guys. If you are heavily reliant on those older players, then sure, what happens in 2 years time is much scarier.

The older blokes in general tend to carry more load in most teams, because if they were shit players they'd not have had a long career, but I don't think we are particularly lop sided in this area, the 6 players on the list that are 31 or older are:
Burgoyne
Poppy
Henderson,
Frawley,
Smith,
Stratton.

Sure, there are some important players in there (particularly from a structural viewpoint) but very few of them are the top level contributors week-in-week-out, or seen as likely AA selections at this stage of their careers. Only 2 of those 6 were in our top 10 at the B&F (Henderson, and Stratton, who was very lucky to scrape into 10th).

I think teams like Geelong, have been much more reliant on their upper age players to get wins, even if they don't have has many in the 29+ bracket compared to us.

Yeah, Median age is more valuable in this sense than average - a few outliers (Burgoyne) for whom age is not even a number anymore.

We have the time now - I'm curious to know the median age of the 22's that played on the weekend. I'd think we are only slightly older than most - probably with a bigger concentration around the 26-30 mark than most.

IIRC, doing some analysis over the off-season based on actual games played that season we were around 4th oldest, dropping to about 9th if Burgoyne/Poppy retired (and were replaced by 18yo draftee - both were uncontracted at the time)

 

[RUNVS]

Yeah, Median age is more valuable in this sense than average - a few outliers (Burgoyne) for whom age is not even a number anymore.

We have the time now - I'm curious to know the median age of the 22's that played on the weekend. I'd think we are only slightly older than most - probably with a bigger concentration around the 26-30 mark than most.

IIRC, doing some analysis over the off-season based on actual games played that season we were around 4th oldest, dropping to about 9th if Burgoyne/Poppy retired (and were replaced by 18yo draftee - both were uncontracted at the time)

It is a good idea but in order to make the analysis fair you would need to remove the two oldest players from every clubs best 22 and replace them with 18 year olds.

 

[matey]

The age of your best 22 is more of a long term issue rather than an issue in 2020. It is a bigger issue in 2022.

Generally speaking though, if you are a top 4 team in terms of age of your best 22 you want to be competing for the flag.

Would be a concern if the Hawks best players were the older ones which isn’t the case anymore. What most opposition supporters on here predicting doom and gloom seem to overlook is that the Hawks older players are only expected to play a role while it’s best players are now Siss, Wingard, Mitchell, Worpel, Hardwick, Impey, JOM who have plenty of footy left in them. 5 of the top 6 in last years B&F were 25 and under. A few others will debut this year and like with all clubs other players will be traded to keep the list rolling along but very optimistic about the longer term outlook.

 

[cryptor]

It's one ******* game.
We won but I can't take much in the way of form out of a game the players would have known was meaningless

In what way was that game meaningless? The season is currently postponed for a couple months and those 4 points and percentage are just as good as any that come after the comp starts back up.

The earliest the players would have known about that with any certainty was at half time, and both teams were clearly playing with intent to win up to and after that point, with the exception of Brisbane who seemingly gave up late in the last quarter. The reactions of all players post-game was not that of players who thought the game was meaningless either.

 

[Gralin]

In what way was that game meaningless? The season is currently postponed for a couple months and those 4 points and percentage are just as good as any that come after the comp starts back up.

The earliest the players would have known about that with any certainty was at half time, and both teams were clearly playing with intent to win up to and after that point, with the exception of Brisbane who seemingly gave up late in the last quarter. The reactions of all players post-game was not that of players who thought the game was meaningless either.

I have serious doubts that we will see the season continue with 18 teams as started.
80% of staff have been stood down across the league a lot without pay and the players have been sent home and can't train at the clubs anymore.

But in a larger sense I think playing the round was bad, and this isn't just AFL we saw a league and NRL pretend like they were doing the right thing with social distancing while playing team sports.

They should have postponed the season without playing a game. We had injuries that weren't needed and risk of spread that wasn't needed.

 

[Pessimistic]

In what way was that game meaningless? The season is currently postponed for a couple months and those 4 points and percentage are just as good as any that come after the comp starts back up.

The earliest the players would have known about that with any certainty was at half time, and both teams were clearly playing with intent to win up to and after that point, with the exception of Brisbane who seemingly gave up late in the last quarter. The reactions of all players post-game was not that of players who thought the game was meaningless either.

Brisbane would have been aware their travel plans might be affected. It is distracting at the best of times

 

[Catsace]

Hawthorn have almost a unique ability to take players from clubs at a sort of discount due to long term injuries and have them come back brilliantly. I mean Burgoyne was essentially washed up with a dodgy and almost degenerative knee over 10 years ago now, and he's Benjamin Buttoned his way to an ageless 37 y/o and still impacting games as his career tally moves into the high 300's and his years in the game begin to exceed the ages of many of the younger players. Scully was a great pick, a bloke who is a running machine who had a terrible ankle injury, but is back into it, a former #2 pick. Patton looks like being a similar project, although he's had i think at least 2 knees, if there's a club he can work wonders at it is the Hawks.

Even with Roughead, i don't think any player ever (especially a tall man) has come back from an Achilles like he did, his footy was outstanding after that bad injury in 20011. Kobe Bryant returned after his and played at a high level, but he wasn't quite exactly the same mobility-wise. They do get great value out of blokes who have had the injury curse at other clubs.

 

[hk89]

It is a good idea but in order to make the analysis fair you would need to remove the two oldest players from every clubs best 22 and replace them with 18 year olds.

Of course, but it is not just about fair, it is about how misleading list age differences can be, when you could in theory "fix" your list with only 2 or 3 list adjustments, the fact that any other team could do the same, is really neither here nor there. IMO this makes the hang wringing over age profile not very warranted in my opinion. Something that measured the on field importance of the players reaching retirement age compared to the rest of your list, would be a much more meaningful metric. In terms of total impact on our win/loss I reckon we are less reliant on our older players than many other teams, so also less vulnerable to impending retirements. B&F can throw up some odd player choices sometimes, but I reckon average age of your top 10 in the B&F might be a better metric of how close the 'cliff' is. We'd probably be above average based on last year's B&F, but I doubt we'd be number 1.

 

[Furn2]

We're so good the last team we beat stood down all their players without pay.

 

[Gold Rocks]

This is PART 2 of this thread.

PART 1 can be found here:

Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

There’s been clubs that have deprioritised the draft before, but Hawthorn really seems to be taking it to the next level. The first two rounds of the draft are obviously where the elite juniors are. Throw in a few compensation picks etc, let’s call it the top 40 picks. This is the sum total of...

www.bigfooty.com

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Does this virus like hurt the hawks strategy if the season isn't played? Player's a year older with list decisions to be made at some point.

 

[Gralin]

Does this virus like hurt the hawks strategy if the season isn't played? Player's a year older with list decisions to be made at some point.

Every club is in the same boat.
Young players miss a year of development.
Teams at the pointy end miss a year of their window.

Whether the AFL survives is a bigger question right now

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Does this virus like hurt the hawks strategy if the season isn't played? Player's a year older with list decisions to be made at some point.

Very hard to know, unprecedented situation.

For all we know older players’ bodies might be loving the time off

 

[Gavin Excell]

Worrying signs for hawthorn