Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[juss]

Troubling signs for Tigers last night you could see it on Hardwick’s face. A look of having no answers. Maybe teams have worked them out. Nank could be Tigers CHB next week .

troubling signs or a bad game/ form slump?

Not sure yet, but surely after your game last week, or teams like the Eagles, we know not to read too much into 1-2 games.

If we play as poorly next week Il be worried, but I'm expecting some sort of response.

 

[HairyO]

The glaring hole in our defense left by Ryan Burton was really evident last night....

Luckily we replaced him with a 5th round pick.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yeah thread was due for a recycled burton reference

 

[Ron The Bear]

In your posts you're constantly asserting that, unless the Hawks win a flag, the recruitment strategy has been proven to be poor. Is that right?

Why don't we hold every team that tries to rebuild through the draft accountable to the same measures? If it fails, why isn't that chalked up as a point against the merits of drafting your talent?

If you look through history, for the life of the league while most or all of the talent has been drafted in, there are plenty more failures on the part of drafting to win premierships than there is in trading to win them.

Been a wonderful era and Clarkson still has some tricks in the bag. But the approach has passed its use-by date. There's a high probability of injuries striking old bodies as the season wears on, much like they did at North in 2016 (began 9-0 and only just fell into the finals). If the Hawks finish above 7th it'll be overs, but it's not leading anywhere IMO.

You have every right to bask in the win.

 

[Pessimistic]

Been a wonderful era and Clarkson still has some tricks in the bag. But the approach has passed its use-by date. There's a high probability of injuries striking old bodies as the season wears on, much like they did at North in 2016 (began 9-0 and only just fell into the finals). If the Hawks finish above 7th it'll be overs, but it's not leading anywhere IMO.

You have every right to bask in the win.

Yet our most significant recent injury was Tom Mitchell (not old). He doesn't get a horrific broken leg, and who knows what happens?

Burgoyne was the most serviceable player in the afl right up to age 33. Cyril Rioli hangs up the boots younger than Burgs was when he came to Hawthorn

 

[Ron The Bear]

Yet our most significant recent injury was Tom Mitchell (not old). He doesn't get a horrific broken leg, and who knows what happens?

Burgoyne was the most serviceable player in the afl right up to age 33. Cyril Rioli hangs up the boots younger than Burgs was when he came to Hawthorn

It's an impersonal opinion. I don't have any particular dislike of Hawthorn above any other club.

History says it's doomed. Maybe it isn't.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Except Hawthorn

#becauseclarko

I actually believe this too. Sickening success at Hawthorn and my choice of team entitles me to more success

Hey Oppo supporters

View attachment 895186

To quote circa 2017 parlance, you're up and about

 

[threesixpio]

To quote circa 2017 parlance, you're up and about

Whilst lying in bed drinking perhaps ...

 

[threesixpio]

alone ...

 

[threesixpio]

Actually that’s not entirely true

 

[Gavin Excell]

Worrying signs for threesixpio sympathisers

 

[hawkman]

Actually that’s not entirely true

Dog or cat with you?

 

[Pessimistic]

Clarko takes all credit in a game like last night, but never personally takes responsibility for a loss. Geelong will win the premiership this year.

he can rev up geelong who they won’t play again

 

[threesixpio]

Dog or cat with you?

I refuse to be a COVIDIOT and I type on my keyboard angrily, about all social ills, drunk, with my cat

is that acceptable?

 

[threesixpio]

he can rev up geelong who they won’t play again

Finals

 

[hawkman]

Finals

You think Geelong will make the finals?

 

[Pessimistic]

This is just a quick review of the 22 players in each club with the most games experience. How many were mature trades

hawthorn 13 st Kilda 11 Collingwood 11 (including beams) Carlton 11 (including betts) geelong (including Ablett) Port 10 North 10 Eagles 8 Melbourne 8 bulldogs 7 Giants 7 Bombers 7

the standout home grown seems to be richmond with 5

looks like the hawks aren’t going that well in their ‘strategy’

so the giants have had a squillion more early draft picks than the hawks, but still traded in seven players in their most experienced 22?

the midfield is omeara mitchell wingard Henderson Scully (traded in) smith Shiels (from three peat) and worpel and perhaps a couple of others. We know they went hard after coniglio, so they don’t regard it as complete.

they did face a cliff without that group. The proposal is they shouldn’t have traded those in and now blooded several youngsters all at the same time.

put that way, it sounds suicidal and a sell out to the members

 

[Pessimistic]

Are the Hawks fans still in denial?

Clarko has been the coach of the decade, but I don't know what he's doing toping up like this. Putting off the rebuild and development is just going to make it take longer ... after you start too late. Things gonna get ugly. This reminds me of Essendon 15 years ago.

15 years ? That’s two rebuilds

 

[Pessimistic]

It's an impersonal opinion. I don't have any particular dislike of Hawthorn above any other club.

History says it's doomed. Maybe it isn't.

history limited to draft era

 

[Hawk_francais]

Been a wonderful era and Clarkson still has some tricks in the bag. But the approach has passed its use-by date. There's a high probability of injuries striking old bodies as the season wears on, much like they did at North in 2016 (began 9-0 and only just fell into the finals). If the Hawks finish above 7th it'll be overs, but it's not leading anywhere IMO.

You have every right to bask in the win.

Older doesn't mean less durable. Our 30+ from last night:

McEvoy
Smith
Burgoyne
Henderson
Frawley
Stratton

Quite apart from the fact that none of those players have had significant injuries in the past 2 years (unless you count McEvoy's cheekbone in 2018), they are just not the nucleus of the playing group anymore. Injuries to Mitchell, O'Meara, Shiels, Wingard, Sicily, Gunston, Breust or even Worpel would impact our season more than the above, except perhaps Stratton who would be missed as captain. Smith is obviously still handy, too.

 

[carnthedons]

In fairness they also lost to Brisbane when they were an actual top 6 side, lost to North and in the 4 weeks before this arbitrary cutoff lost 4 straight including Sydney and Essendon who weren’t much chop (and BNE+WCE)

 

[Furn2]

Interestingly, the 3 players we gave up picks in the "elite end" for, have only taken the field together twice. (For two big wins against top 4 sides) So it's still early days.

7-2 versus the top 6 over the last 12 games suggests it's starting to come together and if things go well we could be right in it over the next 2-3 years.

Also for those saying this hasn't worked before they are right, but this approach has only been an option very recently. There were 3 players traded in 2008 for example, so the draft was the only real option up until 4-5 years ago.

 

[Hawk Dork]

You think Geelong will make the finals?

Hocking will give them lots of games at the sardine can to give them half a chance

 

[hk89]

It's an impersonal opinion. I don't have any particular dislike of Hawthorn above any other club.

History says it's doomed.

History says older teams tend to win flags. Wasn't there some stat trotted out during Thursday nights game about the number of 29 year olds we fielded last year matching the record previously set by Geelong in 2011. What happened that year? Wasn't 2015 one of the oldest if not oldest flag winning teams ever? Players are becoming more and more like fine wine. Or given this thread, perhaps fine whine is more appropriate.

 

[hk89]

In fairness they also lost to Brisbane when they were an actual top 6 side, lost to North and in the 4 weeks before this arbitrary cutoff lost 4 straight including Sydney and Essendon who weren’t much chop (and BNE+WCE)

That Brisbane loss you mention would have been a comfortable win had we not kicked 1-11 from set shots. Won possessions, contested possessions, inside 50s, scoring shots, hitouts. Basically dominated most aspects of the game except the most important one - conversion in front of goal. Fagan pretty much said the better team lost in his presser. The cut-off isn't really arbitrary, it reflects the turning point where we finally started to perform in the midfield after taking way too long to work out how to adjust to Mitchell not playing. Worpel stepped up, Wingard got over his multiple injuries and play some great midfield minutes, and suddenly we were beating the prelim sides. We've had two bad games since the turnaround, one against Roos (and really Roos played well that game), and another last week against Geelong. We've gone 2/3 against the 3 teams from last years H&A top 4, despite Patton and Mitchell playing the first games in a very long time time.

I suspect we've still got a couple of holes that might be hard to plug right now, but we're better than many think we are. Would have played finals last year if we'd had Essendon's draw.