Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[detox]

Wow.

You just said that apart from Mitchell, our trades miss the mark.

I do agree with you though we trade well.

Yes, oldest list in the league and missing finals for the second time in 3 years, but of course better than anyone

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Wojcinski]

Wow.

You just said that apart from Mitchell, our trades miss the mark.

I do agree with you though we trade well.

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yes, if trading to miss finals and push the team off the edge of a cliff is the benchmark, they're doing a great job

 

[detox]

It's an interesting one. You built a dynasty predominately from the draft with a couple of successful trades. Then topped up with trade/free agents to fill holes.

You're using an entirely different blueprint to replace your departed and departing guns - it's an attempted rebuild almost entirely through trade. It's an ambitious strategy, but I personally think that you are showing a ridiculous amount of faith in your medical guys and are going with one risky punt after another. I think it's going to put you in the middle of the ladder for 5 years before you fall further.

Absolutely it's uncharted waters, but you also have to take into account that Hawks have a fantastic record on turning/developing late picks into stars.

Let's say worpel was a pick 1, Sicily pick 5, Lewis pick 10, and Hardwick pick 15, would this thread read differently? All those players are young and at the stage of their careers are performing every bit as good as if they were selected with those picks. But they were picked up with 45/56/44/76.

 

[detox]

Yes, if trading to miss finals and push the team off the edge of a cliff is the benchmark, they're doing a great job

You said our trades apart from Mitchell miss the mark.

Care to elaborate?

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[Wojcinski]

You said our trades apart from Mitchell miss the mark.

Care to elaborate?

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Sure

Wingard - Overpaid with a first rounder and your best young defender. Burton & Sicily would have been a dynamic duo over the next decade.
Scrimshaw - Jury is still out for mine
Scully - Plodder (price paid was good though)
Impey - Overpaid, showed good signs but now injured
Minchington - lol
JOM - Overpaid and hasn't got the same ability he had pre knee injuries. Is a contributer but always an injury risk and has a low ceiling.
Vickery - obvious
O'Rourke - rubbish
Frawley - Not terrible in hindsight but cooked now

 

[sr36]

Absolutely it's uncharted waters, but you also have to take into account that Hawks have a fantastic record on turning/developing late picks into stars.

Let's say worpel was a pick 1, Sicily pick 5, Lewis pick 10, and Hardwick pick 15, would this thread read differently? All those players are young and at the stage of their careers are performing every bit as good as if they were selected with those picks. But they were picked up with 45/56/44/76.

It isn't really unchartered waters. It's been tried by other clubs and failed previously. Hawks have taken it to a different level though, which I admire them enormously for, but it's a massive risk. Your recruitment, development and medical guys have done extremely well in the past. But I don't think you can ignore the amount of luck that is involved in positive outcomes in those areas. It seems unlikely that they are doing things enormously differently to other clubs in those areas. Good luck to the Hawks for not just following group think and I do think they've crunched the numbers on draft picks and worked out that the difference in outcome between the average teens pick isn't that great compared with the average 40+, thus they don't value them as highly as other teams do.

 

[hk89]

Sure

Wingard - Overpaid with a first rounder and your best young defender. Burton & Sicily would have been a dynamic duo over the next decade.

Burton has been in the system for 4 years, and his third and fourth years in the system were both steps back from his second year. There is nothing to show that Burton is going to suddenly become a super star. Wingard on the other hand was part of the midfield that helped us beat 3 of the 4 prelim finalists in the last 8 rounds of the season. Yes we overpaid points wise, but not everything can be broken down to points. We needed wingard and we paid a premium to get him. Once he got fit, he showed how much more he gives than Burton has given either of his two teams so far.

Scrimshaw - Jury is still out for mine

Agreed, but so far you could hardly call it a trade that missed the mark given what he's shown this year for a kid with less than 15 games under his belt. We got him for the price of downgrading a 3rd rounder to a 4th rounder, so trade wise, he'd have to be fairly shit to be not worth that price, and based on what he did this year, that is far from the case.

Scully - Plodder (price paid was good though)

Was ok, but two way running is his main weapon, and he'd spent a year out of the game with an ankle injury that would have greatly eroded his fitness base. Would expect his 2020 to be better with a full pre-season. Again, paid practically nothing for him in a trade, so this is hardly a miss at this stage.

Impey - Overpaid, showed good signs but now injured

Overpaid? By what metric, was probably sitting 1s or 2nd in our B&F voting when he did his ACL. Effectively pick 33 and a 4th rounder for a player that was arguably going to be top 2 in your BF hardly seems like overpaying. As for his injury, he's been super robust up to that point. Played almost every game right from his debut season.

Minchington - lol

Delisted free agent. Thought you were listing trades that missed the mark?

JOM - Overpaid and hasn't got the same ability he had pre knee injuries. Is a contributer but always an injury risk and has a low ceiling.

His knee injuries might have clipped his ceiling, but he's played more top level games for us than he did for GC. He doesn't have a low ceiling, just a lower ceiling than what he might have before the knees. We certainly overpaid in draft points given his injury history, but we needed to replace Lewis and Mitchell and were happy to get bent over a bit to do so in the one trade period.

Vickery - obvious

Another one that was not a trade.

O'Rourke - rubbish

Agreed, one of the only trades you've listed that was a complete failure. Essentially pick 19 for a player that didn't work out for us.

Frawley - Not terrible in hindsight but cooked now

Lol. Still one of the best one-on-one defenders in the competition. Not as flexible as some other defenders, but still doing what he does very very well. Also not a trade.

So your list of 9 trades that missed the mark includes 3 examples that were not trades.

Of the remaining 6, Impey , Scully and Scrimshaw have been pretty good for what we paid for them at the trade table, with upside for at least Scully and Scrimshaw from what we saw in 2019. Wingard and O'meara we overpaid for in order to get players we had fairly urgent need of given the exit of other players. One was a complete failure.

So given our 7 trades over that period (including Mitchell), with only one abject failure, I reckon we've been pretty good at the trade table.

Remember we're only 4 years into a restructure after our last flag. Geelong are 8 years, so it makes sense that we'd be a little bit behind where they've got to in terms of replacing premiership stars with new plays. We've both followed similar strategies, you're just a bit further down the road than us, some might say reaching the end of the road with no reward...

Basically what you see as a litany of misses looks to me like a very solid work in progress on-the-fly rebuild. Your logic seems to be, if you can't get a future Brownlow medalist for pick 14, then the trade has missed the mark.

 

[Wojcinski]

Burton has been in the system for 4 years, and his third and fourth years in the system were both steps back from his second year. There is nothing to show that Burton is going to suddenly become a super star. Wingard on the other hand was part of the midfield that helped us beat 3 of the 4 prelim finalists in the last 8 rounds of the season. Yes we overpaid points wise, but not everything can be broken down to points. We needed wingard and we paid a premium to get him. Once he got fit, he showed how much more he gives than Burton has given either of his two teams so far.



Agreed, but so far you could hardly call it a trade that missed the mark given what he's shown this year for a kid with less than 15 games under his belt. We got him for the price of downgrading a 3rd rounder to a 4th rounder, so trade wise, he'd have to be fairly s**t to be not worth that price, and based on what he did this year, that is far from the case.



Was ok, but two way running is his main weapon, and he'd spent a year out of the game with an ankle injury that would have greatly eroded his fitness base. Would expect his 2020 to be better with a full pre-season. Again, paid practically nothing for him in a trade, so this is hardly a miss at this stage.



Overpaid? By what metric, was probably sitting 1s or 2nd in our B&F voting when he did his ACL. Effectively pick 33 and a 4th rounder for a player that was arguably going to be top 2 in your BF hardly seems like overpaying. As for his injury, he's been super robust up to that point. Played almost every game right from his debut season.



Delisted free agent. Thought you were listing trades that missed the mark?



His knee injuries might have clipped his ceiling, but he's played more top level games for us than he did for GC. He doesn't have a low ceiling, just a lower ceiling than what he might have before the knees. We certainly overpaid in draft points given his injury history, but we needed to replace Lewis and Mitchell and were happy to get bent over a bit to do so in the one trade period.




Another one that was not a trade.



Agreed, one of the only trades you've listed that was a complete failure. Essentially pick 19 for a player that didn't work out for us.



Lol. Still one of the best one-on-one defenders in the competition. Not as flexible as some other defenders, but still doing what he does very very well. Also not a trade.

So your list of 9 trades that missed the mark includes 3 examples that were not trades.

Of the remaining 6, Impey , Scully and Scrimshaw have been pretty good for what we paid for them at the trade table, with upside for at least Scully and Scrimshaw from what we saw in 2019. Wingard and O'meara we overpaid for in order to get players we had fairly urgent need of given the exit of other players. One was a complete failure.

So given our 7 trades over that period (including Mitchell), with only one abject failure, I reckon we've been pretty good at the trade table.

Remember we're only 4 years into a restructure after our last flag. Geelong are 8 years, so it makes sense that we'd be a little bit behind where they've got to in terms of replacing premiership stars with new plays. We've both followed similar strategies, you're just a bit further down the road than us, some might say reaching the end of the road with no reward...

Basically what you see as a litany of misses looks to me like a very solid work in progress on-the-fly rebuild. Your logic seems to be, if you can't get a future Brownlow medalist for pick 14, then the trade has missed the mark.

Sorry I just went off players you got from other clubs. But yes, you've missed the mark with all of these guys - Hawthorn hasn't won a finals match since 2015 and currently has the oldest list in the league even after Roughy's retirement. I appreciate the time you took to respond but this is the dumbest thread because whenever I post in it I only get defensive, one-eyed replies from Hawthorn supporters. Call the trades what ever you want, what Hawthorn has failed to do is properly rejuvinate an old list with good young talent, instead they've opted for average skill, mid/late 20s talent. Geelong did the same thing in 2015, it didn't work.

 

[Aramis]

Sure

Wingard - Overpaid with a first rounder and your best young defender. Burton & Sicily would have been a dynamic duo over the next decade.
Scrimshaw - Jury is still out for mine
Scully - Plodder (price paid was good though)
Impey - Overpaid, showed good signs but now injured
Minchington - lol
JOM - Overpaid and hasn't got the same ability he had pre knee injuries. Is a contributer but always an injury risk and has a low ceiling.
Vickery - obvious
O'Rourke - rubbish
Frawley - Not terrible in hindsight but cooked now

You were supposed to establish that our trades missed the mark, apart from Mitchell.

Wingard - Jury still out, but hasn't lit the world on fire as we would have hoped. Being very generous to you I will say we "missed the mark" on this one as of today.

Scrimshaw - Jury is absolutely out, but his only 21 and we only gave up a third-round pick for him. Plenty of upside and a good trade. Didn't "miss the mark"

Scully - Once again, we paid peanuts for massive upside, he hasn't reached the lofty heights of superstardom like he was at GWS but he is playing his role and playing it well, Would the pick we used to get him have translated into a better player? extremely doubtful given the average games for players by that pick is something insignificant. Didn't "miss the mark"

Impey - Guy has been an absolute jet and had gone to another level prior to an unfortunate injury, the fact you think he is "overpaid" is not worthy of discussion and in no way affects whether Hawthorn as a club "missed the mark in the trade" or not. Absolutely didn't "miss the mark"

Minchington - This wasn't a trade, he was a delisted free agent so technically we didn't "miss the mark" but I'll allow this through as a player who hasn't worked out. We missed the mark.

JOM - "Overpaid and hasn't got the same ability he had pre knee injuries. Is a contributor but always an injury risk and has a low ceiling." - What I've quoted isn't based in evidence or reality, Absolutely didn't "miss the mark"

Vickery - Clearly missed the mark, but once again, wasn't a trade... he was a free agent. We missed the mark

O'Rourke - Agreed, absolutely rubbish. We absolutely missed the mark.

Frawley - Once AGAIN, a free agent... we didn't have missed the mark, the guy helped us win a premiership and is now in the twilight of his career. We did not miss the mark.


So in summary...

You provided the name of 9 players where we "missed the mark in trades", ultimately you satisfactorily provided for 2 players where we "missed the mark in the trade"... you gave;

- 3 players who were Free Agents which arent trades, so I'm not sure why that you used them in your evidence of why we "missed the mark in trades" (2 of which were bad 1 of which was good)
- 6 who were traded in but only 2 of which can honestly (albeit somewhat generously) be defined as "missed the mark".

You're going to have to try a lot harder than that.

 

[hk89]

Sorry I just went off players you got from other clubs. But yes, you've missed the mark with all of these guys -

In your massively biased opinion.

Hawthorn hasn't won a finals match since 2015 and currently has the oldest list in the league even after Roughy's retirement.

We struggled this year without Mitchell. Took the midfield more than half the year to adjust without him. Beat 4 of the 6 teams that made the second week of finals in our last 8 weeks of footy this year. Of the other two, one we didn't play in that period, and the other we lost to after kicking 1.11 from set shots.

I appreciate the time you took to respond but this is the dumbest thread because whenever I post in it I only get defensive, one-eyed replies from Hawthorn supporters.

So you feel the need to balance that with one-eyed replies from Geelong supporters? That's the only way I can make sense of a post that says all of our trades since 2014 have missed the mark, except for the one where we picked a future brownlow winner. You seem to set a pretty high bar for 'not missing the mark'.

Call the trades what ever you want, what Hawthorn has failed to do is properly rejuvinate an old list with good young talent, instead they've opted for average skill, mid/late 20s talent.

Average sides don't do what we did in the last 8 weeks of the year. We are a side in transition, and we struggled without our best player in the first part of the year (that bloke you think was our only successfully trade in the last 5 years). Unless Geelong can pick some rabbits out of their trade period hat (which I wouldn't discount, they are pretty good in that area), Hawthorn will jump ahead of Geelong next year based on the form of both teams in the latter part of the season (Hawthorn 4th placed in a final 8 H&A rounds form ladder ,with a very tough draw over that period, Geelong 8th placed on the same ladder despite playing only one top 6 side in that period). Geelong are losing one of their top 2 brownlow vote getters this trade period, and their top vote getter will be 30 next season. We get last year's brownlow medal winner back in the side. I know this thread is about Hawthorn, but I compare to Geelong as they probably come closest to the club that has matched our strategy in the 4 years following their last flag (despite them hitting the draft a little more in recent seasons). If we pass Geelong next year - which the form ladder suggests we should - we'll be ahead of schedule given how long Geelong have had to rejuvenate their more recent flag winning team compared to us.

 

[hk89]

Frawley - Once AGAIN, a free agent... we couldnt have missed the mark, guy helped us win a premiership and is now in the twilight of his career. We did not miss the mark.

Yeah, that's the one that most clearly identifies Wojcinksi's post as a poor troll attempt.

Not only not a trade, but the guy helps us win a flag, and he still lists it as a trade that missed the mark. Absolutely NFI.

 

[Aramis]

Yeah, that's the one that most clearly identifies Wojcinksi's post as a poor troll attempt.

Not only not a trade, but the guy helps us win a flag, and he still lists it as a trade that missed the mark. Absolutely NFI.

Absolutely has NFI, I just wanted to deconstruct his illogical ramblings brick by brick.

 

[QuietB]

Sure

Wingard - Overpaid with a first rounder and your best young defender. Burton & Sicily would have been a dynamic duo over the next decade.
Scrimshaw - Jury is still out for mine
Scully - Plodder (price paid was good though)
Impey - Overpaid, showed good signs but now injured
Minchington - lol
JOM - Overpaid and hasn't got the same ability he had pre knee injuries. Is a contributer but always an injury risk and has a low ceiling.
Vickery - obvious
O'Rourke - rubbish
Frawley - Not terrible in hindsight but cooked now

Gunston - gun
McEvoy - gun
Burgoyne - Hall of Famer
Ceglar - solid
Henderson - might win a B&F this weekend

Lets do Geelong

Stanley - lol
Rohan - lol
S Selwood - lolol
Dalhaus - lol (I secretly like him but since you are trolling)
Menagola - lol
Zac Smith - lololololol
Zac Touhy - lol (he is alright)

We all have misses and Geelong are headed for the same cliff. Ablett, Taylor done. Hawkins, Selwood, Danger closer to the end than the start.

Guess Hawks will race you to the cliff

 

[Wojcinski]

I wasn't trolling but you guys once again can't see past the end of your noses. You have the oldest list, the oldest best 22 and you haven't won a final in years! Pick on my team all you want, at least they're putting themselves in a position to be successful by making, and winning finals.

I hope the list manager at Hawthorn doesn't share the nuff attitude in here because you've already slipped off the cliff and you're hurtling down at a pretty quick pace. Late seasons wins against finals teams won't mean much when you're losing to other spud teams all year.

The proof is in the pudding no matter how you justify it.

- Oldest team overall
- Oldest listed best 22
- Unsuccessful captains
- 2 years missing finals
- 2 years straight sets exits from finals
- Poor recent trading history

Keep those fingers firmly pressed inside those ears lads.

 

[HeHateMe]

With such self destruction we deserve a Priority pick.

 

[QuietB]

I wasn't trolling but you guys once again can't see past the end of your noses. You have the oldest list, the oldest best 22 and you haven't won a final in years! Pick on my team all you want, at least they're putting themselves in a position to be successful by making, and winning finals.

I hope the list manager at Hawthorn doesn't share the nuff attitude in here because you've already slipped off the cliff and you're hurtling down at a pretty quick pace. Late seasons wins against finals teams won't mean much when you're losing to other spud teams all year.

The proof is in the pudding no matter how you justify it.

- Oldest team overall
- Oldest listed best 22
- Unsuccessful captains
- 2 years missing finals
- 2 years straight sets exits from finals
- Poor recent trading history

Keep those fingers firmly pressed inside those ears lads.

Geelong have won 4 finals since 2013.

Hawthorn have won 3 PREMIERSHIPS

And Geelong still have Chris Scott. Hawks are doing fine

 

[Wojcinski]

Geelong have won 4 finals since 2013.

Hawthorn have won 3 PREMIERSHIPS

And Geelong still have Chris Scott. Hawks are doing fine

Since 2015 the Hawks have done nothing mate, but keep deflecting and bringing up the team I support because you know I'm right

 

[hawk for 37]

My brain hurts after reading the last few pages. Dick size competitions between Cats and Hawks.... been going on since 2008.

 

[MinerBoy]

Sure

Wingard - Overpaid with a first rounder and your best young defender. Burton & Sicily would have been a dynamic duo over the next decade.
Scrimshaw - Jury is still out for mine
Scully - Plodder (price paid was good though)
Impey - Overpaid, showed good signs but now injured
Minchington - lol
JOM - Overpaid and hasn't got the same ability he had pre knee injuries. Is a contributer but always an injury risk and has a low ceiling.
Vickery - obvious
O'Rourke - rubbish
Frawley - Not terrible in hindsight but cooked now

Frawley - not terrible in hindsight. Haha **** me try to underplay it more. King of understatement right here.
Burton - was neither best nor second best young defender. Sicily and Hardwick were not only in front but comfortably so.
Wingard - still young and spent half the year overcoming niggles. Had a great finish to the season and will have seasons of great football ahead.
Scrimshaw - gave more last year than Burton ever had for us.
Impey - injured now... and will return. Probably top 3 B&F went he went down late in season.
JOM - won't get to where he could have be is a first class player with years left regardless.
Scully - got plenty of footy in when not even expected to get any. Showed he still has the work ethic to run hard and all day. Will be a good player and for the price that's all he needs to be.

Minchington/TV/JOR - who gives a ****.

 

[QuietB]

Since 2015 the Hawks have done nothing mate, but keep deflecting and bringing up the team I support because you know I'm right

Neither have Geelong mate

Hawks are rebuilding. You are not supposed to win anything when you are rebuilding.

There is no proof that you are right. The only indicator is Geelong have tried to top up through trading and failed. That is only one example though so it is hardly definitive.

Hawks have certainly been aggressive in trading. The reality is they have not had their hands on a top 10 pick for a very long time and even this year they are going to land with 10 unless something changes and 10 is still not that good a pick.

I am happy with how the hawks are progressing. They are collecting pieces of the puzzle. They are certainly missing pieces and really don't care how they get them.

 

[Wojcinski]

Neither have Geelong mate

Hawks are rebuilding. You are not supposed to win anything when you are rebuilding.

There is no proof that you are right. The only indicator is Geelong have tried to top up through trading and failed. That is only one example though so it is hardly definitive.

Hawks have certainly been aggressive in trading. The reality is they have not had their hands on a top 10 pick for a very long time and even this year they are going to land with 10 unless something changes and 10 is still not that good a pick.

I am happy with how the hawks are progressing. They are collecting pieces of the puzzle. They are certainly missing pieces and really don't care how they get them.

Not a bad post but not sure what your obsession with Geelong is?

 

[QuietB]

Not a bad post but not sure what your obsession with Geelong is?

Both our clubs have been doing pretty much the same thing for a dozen years now. Geelong were always a few years ahead having blitzed the 99 draft class. Hawks had to wait until 01.

Sydney finally cracked this year. it remains to be seen what Hawthorn do. It is not clear one way or the other though.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

My brain hurts after reading the last few pages. Dick size competitions between Cats and Hawks.... been going on since 2008.

And ours are still much bigger and productive.

 

[QuietB]

And ours are still much bigger and productive.

We supply their best players as well as ours

 

[Pessimistic]

Sure

Wingard - Overpaid with a first rounder and your best young defender. Burton & Sicily would have been a dynamic duo over the next decade.
Scrimshaw - Jury is still out for mine
Scully - Plodder (price paid was good though)
Impey - Overpaid, showed good signs but now injured
Minchington - lol
JOM - Overpaid and hasn't got the same ability he had pre knee injuries. Is a contributer but always an injury risk and has a low ceiling.
Vickery - obvious
O'Rourke - rubbish
Frawley - Not terrible in hindsight but cooked now

Overpaid has no relevance