Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[hawkman]

But you must think Hawthorn are only five years off a flag and not ten, because you brought in an older player, hoping he will be part of your next flag.

I also question what you say about Wingard. Sure, he is a more talented player, but he goes missing a bit, and I have always seen him as a downhill skiier. If his effort matched his talent, he might be your best player in the side, but he hasn't shown this work ethic yet.

I highly rated Burton, and thought that he would be the new general in your backline going forward.

Besides, you better hope Wingard is good, considering that Port got Burton and a draft pick, who I think they used to get Connor Rozee from. So, to win that deal, Wingard's career going forward would want to be better than it has been so far.

Sicily came in and was doing a better job at playing in Burton's preferred position. We also picked up Scrimshaw who is a better compliment to our backline that what Burton was now Sicily is established there

They picked up Duursma from the draft pick from the trade

Wingard looked great in the midfield late in the season. He is the inside/outside midfielder we have never really had.

 

[Sixpence]

In fairness to the HS, Burgoyne's looming departure appears similar to the exits of Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell, which I thought were bold but correct calls at the time given Tom Mitchell & O'Meara were coming in, along with the surprising Henderson (and the bust Vickery).

If he leaves, it's for a better deal for him personally and has absolutely nothing to do with lowering our age profile!

I also question what you say about Wingard. Sure, he is a more talented player, but he goes missing a bit, and I have always seen him as a downhill skiier. If his effort matched his talent, he might be your best player in the side, but he hasn't shown this work ethic yet.

I highly rated Burton, and thought that he would be the new general in your backline going forward.

Besides, you better hope Wingard is good, considering that Port got Burton and a draft pick, who I think they used to get Connor Rozee from. So, to win that deal, Wingard's career going forward would want to be better than it has been so far.

Mate, you need to pay more attention, Wingard's last two months of our season were brilliant! Starting against your mob, he's been in our top 2 (just behind Worpel) in just about every game, culminating in a best on ground against West Coast in Perth. He has been a spark in our midfield in the second half of the season (and bare in mind he was injured most of the first half), providing burst out of the midfield and precise delivery into our forward line. Look at Roughy's farewell game, it was Wingard providing him the ball most the time.

I can guarantee you just about every Hawks fan is content with the Wingard deal given his second half of the year!

I think you vastly overrate Burton too. He had a fantastic first year (robbed of Rising Star, even), but with Hodge gone, his deficiencies were exposed. Still a very good player and will still have a good career at Port but I don't see him being the star you make him out to be. And more to the point, neither did Hawthorn.

BTW, Wingard's career to date includes 2 AAs.

 

[matey]

Well, I will give you one example.


Clarko trades Sam Mitchell to WCE, and Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, to make spaces to draft youth.

Yet, last year, Hawthorn traded out young defender Ryan Burton (who I rated as the cornerstone to your backline for the next decade) for Chad Wingard, who is much older.

So, which is it? Are you offloading Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge to build for the future, or offloading young (Burton) for older (Wingard) in order to compete for another flag. It baffles me.

Our backline over the next few years is built around Siss, Hardwick, Impey, Scrimshaw and our first pick last year was on a KP defender. Hopefully he will finish his apprenticeship at BH at a similar time when Chip calls it quits. Bit like with Roughy passing on the baton to Lewis.

In terms of Wingard he played some very impressive footy towards the end of the season spending a lot of time in the midfield. Really looking forward to his next few years and the class that he will add to the midfield group. His tackling was noticeable and he doesn’t shirk at a contest either. Only time will tell.

 

[matey]

The risk is there for the decade long bottom-out, but the upside is a golden generation. Surely that's better than middling..?

(only the Dees ruin my argument, they are an elite draft pick side...but they are beyond any logical understanding)

Do you honestly believe that what Clarko and Hawthorn are doing is to achieve middling? If Clarko didn’t think that he could win another premiership with the Hawks he would quit without a doubt.

 

[Ron The Bear]

If he leaves, it's for a better deal for him personally and has absolutely nothing to do with lowering our age profile!

Accepted, but if he was regarded as an important player you'd be doing more to keep him. It's really a case of allowing natural attrition to do its thing.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

I too am astounded that the Hawks have not won another three peat since their last three peat It is obviously Clarko's ego

Three years ago the Hawks were reigning premiers you pigeon.

lol my apologies, 2 years and 360 days ago the golden era ended.

Come on, thinking now about the decline of all those elites since then to the point where you got near-nothing for them, what if you traded hard into the top end of the draft at the time? GCS were desperate, it was perfect timing. You would have had a 2001/2004 equivalent set of picks!

 

[TheFourPillars]

Accepted, but if he was regarded as an important player you'd be doing more to keep him. It's really a case of allowing natural attrition to do its thing.

We only offer 1 year deals to 30+ year olds there have been NO EXCEPTIONS so far. It is also the reason Smith may leave this year. Not that we do not value Smith but everyone at Hawthorn knows what the deal is

 

[Luv_our_club]

Funny how different players are rated after the fact.

Burton, after his first year, was rated highly by Hawks supporters. Huge excitement, including me. After his second year i started to see him as a skilled half back flanker with little ability to play tall, an injury legacy that would stay with him whole career, and a brash personality that made me wonder if he would accept being a role player who is not highly paid.


But yeah, you are right, it does sharpen your mind after the fact. I don't rate Cogs potential as highly as i did 3 weeks ago.

 

[hawkman]

Accepted, but if he was regarded as an important player you'd be doing more to keep him. It's really a case of allowing natural attrition to do its thing.

Do you really think it would be smart if we offered him a 2 year playing deal? Only 1 club in the league would offer a 37 year old a 2 year deal and that is because they are desperate to get any sort of experienced talent up to their club

 

[Ron The Bear]

Do you really think it would be smart if we offered him a 2 year playing deal? Only 1 club in the league would offer a 37 year old a 2 year deal and that is because they are desperate to get any sort of experienced talent up to their club

No. I'm not saying it's a bad move to let Burgoyne go at all. And it makes sense for him to go if he's got his eye on a coaching career and it's part of the deal.

We only offer 1 year deals to 30+ year olds there have been NO EXCEPTIONS so far. It is also the reason Smith may leave this year. Not that we do not value Smith but everyone at Hawthorn knows what the deal is

Sure, it's a risk aversion policy. It allows market forces to do their thing and I'm not being critical of it at all. It does leave the gate open if e.g. Lewis is offered three years elsewhere, though.

 

[QuietB]

lol my apologies, 2 years and 360 days ago the golden era ended.

Come on, thinking now about the decline of all those elites since then to the point where you got near-nothing for them, what if you traded hard into the top end of the draft at the time? GCS were desperate, it was perfect timing. You would have had a 2001/2004 equivalent set of picks!

They are not worth anything. Geelong didn't get anything for Kelly, Chapman or SJ either. They were all at the end of their careers and thinking you could get first round picks for them is dreaming.

Having said that Mitchell Lewis, Worpel and maybe another have come from the Mitchell/Hodge/Lewis picks.

The equation is pretty simple. Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Gibson, Lake, Rioli, Hill, Roughhead, Hale and other are all gone and need to be replaced.

It is close to a miracle that Hawthorn put that much talent together in the first place in the same way it is close to a miracle Gelong put the 2007-2011 talent together. It is not easy to do. It takes a crap load of luck and good management to keep it together.

If Hawthorn can do it again it is going to take time.

You are going way too early.

 

[hk89]

There are big diffferences between the hawks of 19 and the tigers of 16

No 1, Richmond had 10 years of first round picks on the list

Martin, Cotchin, Flossy, Rance, Ellis, Deledio, Grigg, Rioli, Griffiths, Riewoldt ect

No 2, THese players mostly had their best football ahead of them

Lol. You've included Deledio who left at the end of 2016. Grigg was not a first rounder. Griffiths was not a first rounder. 4 of the remaining 7 will be 30 or older next year, suggesting that 3 years ago their careers were well past the half way point (unless they all do a Burgoyne).

Hawthorn have plenty of first rounders on the list, the main difference being we traded all but one of ours in. 4 of ours are 26 or younger - all traded in.

No3 Richmond could actually attract A grade free agents. Prestia , Caddy and Nank all came across

Prestia didn't move under free agency. Traded. Caddy didn't move under free agency. Traded. Nank didn't move under free agency. Traded. Nank an A grader. Lol.

You really are a numpty of the highest order, but your contributions to this thread augurs well for the Hawthorn football club. The last time you were this active in a Hawthorn related thread, was your infamous "Shane edwards is better than Cyril Rioli" thread. Hawthorn went on to grab the 3-peat that year, with Cyril winning the Norm smith, and finishing second in our best and fairest. Happy times ahead if your midas touch continues.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The last time you were this active in a Hawthorn related thread, was your infamous "Shane edwards is better than Cyril Rioli" thread.

Hahahahahahahahaha!

 

[blaisee]

Lol. You've included Deledio who left at the end of 2016. Grigg was not a first rounder. Griffiths was not a first rounder. 4 of the remaining 7 will be 30 or older next year, suggesting that 3 years ago their careers were well past the half way point (unless they all do a Burgoyne).

Hawthorn have plenty of first rounders on the list, the main difference being we traded all but one of ours in. 4 of ours are 26 or younger - all traded in.



Prestia didn't move under free agency. Traded. Caddy didn't move under free agency. Traded. Nank didn't move under free agency. Traded. Nank an A grader. Lol.

You really are a numpty of the highest order, but your contributions to this thread augurs well for the Hawthorn football club. The last time you were this active in a Hawthorn related thread, was your infamous "Shane edwards is better than Cyril Rioli" thread. Hawthorn went on to grab the 3-peat that year, with Cyril winning the Norm smith, and finishing second in our best and fairest. Happy times ahead if your midas touch continues.

Funny thing is, my Shane Edwards thread was spot on and you know it, thanks for bringing it up.,

 

[Jobe Watson]

You can see how they would jump to that conclusion though. Every other year from 2012 onwards we've finished the H&A season top 4.
2012:1st
2014:2nd
2016:3rd
2018:4th

A concerning trend to be sure. Suggests 2020 we'll miss out, finishing 5th! This must be the cliff everyone is warning us about! Now that would be a nasty dose of reality! When that happens we'll be sure to turn to Jobe for counselling on how to survive while not making the top 4 every other year. How many years of "reality" has it been for your mob now? I put reality in scare quotes because clearly your mob did spend a few years vastly separated from reality during the "#standbyhird" fiasco.

Not sure what Essendon have to do with this. If you want to talk about us, you should do it on one of the 3 or 4 dedicated Essendon threads on the Hawthorn board.

Hawthorn aren't the only team that will get a good player or two back next year. West Coast get Naitanui, Richmond get Rance, GWS get Ward, Essendon get Smith and Daniher, And those teams are already better than Hawthorn. It's silly to just expect Hawthorn to get back to finals next year because you'll get Mitchell back. Unfortunately, Hawthorn just aren't very good anymore.

 

[hk89]

Yo-yo, not cliff. Exactly. My god how do people still not get this. Hawthorn desperately needed to go off a cliff, but Clarko's legacy-obsession didn't allow it. What occurred as a result is exactly as I predicted 3 years ago, after a bit of yo-yo-ing they have settled perfectly at 9th, middling at its absolute finest. It was so obvious.

So make up your mind. Are we yo-yoing or have we 'settled' ? Seems we're still yo-yoing for mine. H&A finishes of 3rd, 12th, 4th, 9th suggests to me we haven't settled anywhere yet. If the yoyo continues we'll yoyo back up into the 8 next year, and it would be a brave observer who would predict otherwise given our performance against the better sides in the latter part of the year, and the return of Mitchell. In fact it wouldn't be stupid to suggest Mitchell was a big cause of the downward yoyo this year.

I think it's instructive that the reason the Hawks arent playing finals this is year is the emergence of a Lions team built from ashes that honestly looks to me like it will seriously contend for the next 5 years at least.

Yes, the team whose midfield we smashed in our last meeting without our best midfielder. Unfortunately, we lost after kicking 1.11 from set shots. More scoring shots, more inside 50s, more clearances, more contested marks and more marks inside 50 will most days equal a win, but 1.11 dictated otherwise.

 

[hk89]

Not sure what Essendon have to do with this. If you want to talk about us, you should do it on one of the 3 or 4 dedicated Essendon threads on the Hawthorn board.

If you can't see how Essendon is related to an Essendon fan accusing another group of supporters of not being aligned with reality, I'm sure I can't help you.

Hawthorn aren't the only team that will get a good player or two back next year. West Coast get Naitanui, Richmond get Rance, GWS get Ward, Essendon get Smith and Daniher,

Richmond, GWS, Eagles, Essendon. One of these are not like the others.

And those teams are already better than Hawthorn.

Yes, GWS conclusively proved that in our meetings this year. Hint, it is not just the players running around on the park, the coach is part of the team too.

t's silly to just expect Hawthorn to get back to finals next year because you'll get Mitchell back. Unfortunately, Hawthorn just aren't very good anymore.

Mitchell is icing on the cake. The reason I think we'll get back to finals is based on our performances against better teams once Wingard and Worpel stepped up to help O'Meara in the midfield. Hawthorn beat WC in the last H&A round at Eagle's home ground with Eagles playing for a top 4 spot and double chance. A 15 goal better performance than your team managed the following round (despite having most of your players back). We also pantsed Brisbane's midfield without Mitchell playing. Essendon were better than the team Hawthorn put on the field when we met earlier in the year. However, round 23 Hawthorn would have smashed round 23 Essendon by a fairly comfortable margin, and I don't see that changing much come next season.

 

[Scotland]

We only offer 1 year deals to 30+ year olds there have been NO EXCEPTIONS so far. It is also the reason Smith may leave this year. Not that we do not value Smith but everyone at Hawthorn knows what the deal is

What about players that are contracted beyond the age of 30? Like Breust and Gunston who signed in their 20s until they are 31 or 32? Surely if your agent is worth his salt he would be negotiating a contract extension when you are 28/29.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The reason I think we'll get back to finals is based on our performances against better teams once Wingard and Worpel stepped up to help O'Meara in the midfield.

I'm a little wary of late-season form from the also-rans. Isaac Smith's observation before one of the late games that "happy teams play good football" was noted. I'd be interested to see Clarkson's reaction if a new, happy culture wasn't bringing wins.

 

[hk89]

I'm a little wary of late-season form from the also-rans. Isaac Smith's observation before one of the late games that "happy teams play good football" was noted. I'd be interested to see Clarkson's reaction if a new, happy culture wasn't bringing wins.

Sure, sometimes teams relax and play better once the pressure of making finals is off. However, we were not officially also-rans until after our last H&A game was played. When we beat Eagles in the last round, we were still a live chance to play finals ("only" requiring dogs to fall over against Adelaide in order to make it).

Clarkson did seem to be going out of his way to create a happy vibe, something that wasn't so obvious in the past (at least to me), so perhaps a new approach from him to get the best out of the team. Apart from the loss to North, was a fairly encouraging end of the season. Transition from midfield whipping boy for the first half of the year (arguably the worst performed midfield in the competition), to a team that could hold its own in that area without Mitchell was huge for us, and I'm hoping will be the cornerstone of a return to finals next year.

 

[Scotland]

I'm a little wary of late-season form from the also-rans. Isaac Smith's observation before one of the late games that "happy teams play good football" was noted. I'd be interested to see Clarkson's reaction if a new, happy culture wasn't bringing wins.

You are right to be. Every year people make a big deal of late season form but it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Last year Essendon turned 4-7 into 12-10. This year, 5-6 into 12-10. The other year St Kilda turned a 4-7 start into 12-10, then went 5-6 to 11-11, then 4-1-17 and 9-13 the last two seasons. Sometimes you just aren't that good.

North were 2-7 at one stage and finished with 8 wins from the last 13 games. Carlton were 1-10 and won 6 of 11. St Kilda won early easy ones, found their true form then had a late season burst of 3 wins in 4 games after punting Richo. How bullish should we be about these teams? Melbourne steamrolled into September last year and won through to a prelim. The less said about their 2019 the better.

In Hawthorn's favour they were pretty competitive in most games. Freo last year won 8 games, Brisbane won 5. Brisbane more competitive overall and went on with it. Hawks didn't get flogged by anyone and finished with a percentage over 100 and a 50/50 record. They did adjust their tactics and play more negative footy and their average score conceded in wins was only 57. I'm not sure that is sustainable and a 79 for 73 against overall record doesn't read like the blueprint for success but we'll see. With Mitchell back in, Wingard playing good footy etc. perhaps they'll adjust again but then as we've seen a few times with them and multiple teams each time you adapt/adjust it tends to take time and if you want to play finals you really need to have at least a positive W-L record at the half way mark and build from that.

 

[TheFourPillars]

What about players that are contracted beyond the age of 30? Like Breust and Gunston who signed in their 20s until they are 31 or 32? Surely if your agent is worth his salt he would be negotiating a contract extension when you are 28/29.

Of course that's one way to get around it. Cegs just signed for 3 which will take him to 31

 

[Ron The Bear]

In Hawthorn's favour they were pretty competitive in most games. Freo last year won 8 games, Brisbane won 5. Brisbane more competitive overall and went on with it. Hawks didn't get flogged by anyone and finished with a percentage over 100 and a 50/50 record. They did adjust their tactics and play more negative footy and their average score conceded in wins was only 57. I'm not sure that is sustainable and a 79 for 73 against overall record doesn't read like the blueprint for success but we'll see. With Mitchell back in, Wingard playing good footy etc. perhaps they'll adjust again but then as we've seen a few times with them and multiple teams each time you adapt/adjust it tends to take time and if you want to play finals you really need to have at least a positive W-L record at the half way mark and build from that.

It was as much the way Hawthorn played as anything else. In their good wins they were all over the opposition, challenging them to get out of the back half. In working to extract the best from what he had, I felt Clarkson backed the team into a style corner. Late in the season they added scoring to the mix. If that can be sustained they will bounce back next year, but I'm still skeptical.

On a trivial note, the wooden spoon Hawks of 1965 conceded 1742 points (from 18 games). This year they scored 1742 points from 22 games. Yeah this is largely a function of modern footy, but from 1966 onwards Hawthorn have been the highest-scoring club (102.3 ppg), with the rest in a bunch under 100. They need to rediscover their attacking mojo to be a force again. I'm not sure they have the players right now to do it.

 

[QuietB]

It was as much the way Hawthorn played as anything else. In their good wins they were all over the opposition, challenging them to get out of the back half. In working to extract the best from what he had, I felt Clarkson backed the team into a style corner. Late in the season they added scoring to the mix. If that can be sustained they will bounce back next year, but I'm still skeptical.

On a trivial note, the wooden spoon Hawks of 1965 conceded 1742 points (from 18 games). This year they scored 1742 points from 22 games. Yeah this is largely a function of modern footy, but from 1966 onwards Hawthorn have been the highest-scoring club (102.3 ppg), with the rest in a bunch under 100. They need to rediscover their attacking mojo to be a force again. I'm not sure they have the players right now to do it.

The exciting thing for Hawks fans was that it was young players starting to take over.

Mitchell lewis was great towards the end of the year - he has only played 14 games. He has serious improvement to come.

Worpel got better and better and he has only played 33 games.

Hawks are obviously missing a some and maybe even a lot of pieces but the signs that they are slowly being filled is good.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The exciting thing for Hawks fans was that it was young players starting to take over.

Mitchell lewis was great towards the end of the year - he has only played 14 games. He has serious improvement to come.

Worpel got better and better and he has only played 33 games.

Hawks are obviously missing a some and maybe even a lot of pieces but the signs that they are slowly being filled is good.

I like Lewis a lot. No club's position is all bad.