List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)

[Aphrodite]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-03-01/drafts-wealth-of-sons-brothers-cousins-nephews

Ben Silvagni is one of a handful of possible Carlton father-son choices, alongside Will Hickmott (son of Adrian), who will play for Western Australia, and Oskar Manton, the son of former Blues defender Glenn

 

[90N90S]

We can safely say we have nailed the last few drafts, Dow could have gone #1 in this draft easily.

Think we need another draft this year and we will have completed the reset.

Another forward and a couple of midfielders inside mid and outside mid.

We might need a back pocket as well not sure how our stocks are in that department.

 

[Malifice]

Over the next few years we'll lose Simpson, Rowe, ASOS and Thomas, but I can honestly say we have those four covered thanks to our abundance of defensive stocks. We're still left with [Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Jones, Macreadie] as tall defenders and [Byrne, Docherty, Williamson] as attacking rebounders.

For mine we simply take best available [but not a defender] with our 1st round pick to bolster our forward or midfield stocks [with an emphasis on class]. Lukosis or Rnkine will do nicely. We should then look to be taking a ruckman with one of our 2nd rounders [without reaching; but we need one developing for when Kruezer retires], and then take best available with the other 2nd rounder. Our later picks can be used on points for F/S.

In 2019 we look to grab a F/A (Shiel) and throw down our 2019 and 2020 1sts on the table for an established gun mid.

 

[Jimmae]

We can safely say we have nailed the last few drafts, Dow could have gone #1 in this draft easily.

Think we need another draft this year and we will have completed the reset.

Another forward and a couple of midfielders inside mid and outside mid.

We might need a back pocket as well not sure how our stocks are in that department.

Possible, but highly unlikely.

We've got Ethan Penrith and Jordan Johnston looking pretty sharp for the Northern Blues. Penrith has promise as a smaller defender.

 

[90N90S]

Possible, but highly unlikely.

We've got Ethan Penrith and Jordan Johnston looking pretty sharp for the Northern Blues. Penrith has promise as a smaller defender.

That is good news because we have been lacking a back pocket for a while now.

Byrne can play on the wing has plenty of speed and is very gutsy, he can even rotate through the midfield.

 

[Jimmae]

That is good news because we have been lacking a back pocket for a while now.

Byrne can play on the wing has plenty of speed and is very gutsy, he can even rotate through the midfield.

Eventually all these HBF players moving to the midfield will see a few people suggesting some of them move to half-forward...

 

[90N90S]

Eventually all these HBF players moving to the midfield will see a few people suggesting some of them move to half-forward...

True that.

 

[HBF]

I have no problem with asking the question - the worst they can do is say no. I'd just be amazed if we got what we asked for.

Priority picks should only be given out in exceptional circumstances to absolute basket cases. We've been down the bottom for a while, but I certainly don't see us as a basket case these days and I doubt the AFL do either.

I can't see the AFL granting us a priority pick, but as you say there is no harm in asking the question.

 

[Malifice]

Brisbane finishes (2012-2016):
2012: 13th (10 wins)
2013: 2th (10 wins)
2014: 15th (7 wins)
2015: 17th (4 wins)
2016: 17th (3 wins).

Total: 34 wins, 86 losses. Average ladder position over 5 years: 13.8th. Average wins/ season 6.8.

Applied for (and got) an end of 1st round PP and the end of the 2016 season.

Now lets presume a reasonably optimistic 8 wins for us this year, and a finish of 16th:

Carlton finishes (2014-2018):
2014: 13th (7 wins)
2015: 18th (4 wins)
2016: 14th (7 wins)
2017: 16th (6 wins)
2018: 16th? (8 wins?)

Total: 32 wins, 88 losses. Average ladder position over 5 years 15.4th. Average wins/ season: 6.4.

We most definitely should apply for a PP this year. Even with 8 wins this year, our 5 year average win/loss is worse than Brisbanes when they asked for one, as is our total win/ loss ratio, and we've finished lower on the ladder than the Lions over the same span of time.

I get that Brisbane have issues being a QLD club (including with player retention), but there are incentives for the AFL to give us a hit in the arm as well. A strong Carlton is good for the AFL in the long term, just as much as strengthening the national competition by helping out the expansion clubs north of the border.

We should ask for one this year, and in my view we have a very arguable case.

Its even more arguable if everything goes pear shaped this year.

 

[HBF]

If there is a gun tall in the draft like Lukosis and we have the chance to draft him then we should most definately do that.

 

[Sector 7G]

Brisbane finishes (2012-2016):
2012: 13th (10 wins)
2013: 2th (10 wins)
2014: 15th (7 wins)
2015: 17th (4 wins)
2016: 17th (3 wins).

Total: 34 wins, 86 losses. Average ladder position over 5 years: 13.8th. Average wins/ season 6.8.

Applied for (and got) an end of 1st round PP and the end of the 2016 season.

Now lets presume a reasonably optimistic 8 wins for us this year, and a finish of 16th:

Carlton finishes (2014-2018):
2014: 13th (7 wins)
2015: 18th (4 wins)
2016: 14th (7 wins)
2017: 16th (6 wins)
2018: 16th? (8 wins?)

Total: 32 wins, 88 losses. Average ladder position over 5 years 15.4th. Average wins/ season: 6.4.

We most definitely should apply for a PP this year. Even with 8 wins this year, our 5 year average win/loss is worse than Brisbanes when they asked for one, as is our total win/ loss ratio, and we've finished lower on the ladder than the Lions over the same span of time.

I get that Brisbane have issues being a QLD club (including with player retention), but there are incentives for the AFL to give us a hit in the arm as well. A strong Carlton is good for the AFL in the long term, just as much as strengthening the national competition by helping out the expansion clubs north of the border.

We should ask for one this year, and in my view we have a very arguable case.

Its even more arguable if everything goes pear shaped this year.

Got no chance getting a PP unless you win 4 games or less in multiple seasons. Waste of time asking and sends the wrong message.

 

[Malifice]

Obtaining a pick 19 this year as a PP lets us work some neat tricks.

We could bundle 19 with 29 (Doggies 2nd which we hold) is worth 1,601 points. We then trade these two picks to GCS (who will value the points) for WCE's 1st rounder (8-10) or around 1,469 points, giving us 2 x top ten picks this year.

 

[Malifice]

Got no chance getting a PP unless you win 4 games or less in multiple seasons. Waste of time asking and sends the wrong message.

That isnt the critereon. The critereon are:

In the 2012 pre-season, the AFL, with the unanimous support of the 18 clubs, removed the provision for priority picks automatically based upon finishing results [and introduced a new formula]... The new formula is:

• premiership points that a club has received over a period of years (with greater weight to recent seasons),
• a club's percentage (points for/points against x 100) over a period of years (another indication of on-field competitiveness, with greater weight to recent seasons),
• any finals appearances that a club has made in recent seasons,
• any premierships that a club has won in recent seasons, and
• a club's injury rates in each relevant season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_draft_pick#cite_note-2012_changes-1

Over the 5 years spread 2014-2018 (compared to Brisbane in 2012-2016, the year they got a PP) even presuming 8 wins for us this season, we will have averaged less premiership points (criteria 1), averaged less percentage (criterea 2), been equal in finals appearances and premierships (zero), and had probably less injuries. While there might be an increased weighting towards recent poor seasons, that largely brings us up to par with the Lions (who got a PP).

All other things being equal, we have a stronger case for a PP than they did. Certainly if we finish with less than 8 wins this year, we have a very strong case to argue.

Of course they are an expansion club with unique issues (and the AFL have made no secret they will look after the clubs north of the border), but to say we dont have a case to argue is patently false.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Brisbane finishes (2012-2016):
2012: 13th (10 wins)
2013: 2th (10 wins)
2014: 15th (7 wins)
2015: 17th (4 wins)
2016: 17th (3 wins).

Total: 34 wins, 86 losses. Average ladder position over 5 years: 13.8th. Average wins/ season 6.8.

Applied for (and got) an end of 1st round PP and the end of the 2016 season.

Now lets presume a reasonably optimistic 8 wins for us this year, and a finish of 16th:

Carlton finishes (2014-2018):
2014: 13th (7 wins)
2015: 18th (4 wins)
2016: 14th (7 wins)
2017: 16th (6 wins)
2018: 16th? (8 wins?)

Total: 32 wins, 88 losses. Average ladder position over 5 years 15.4th. Average wins/ season: 6.4.

We most definitely should apply for a PP this year. Even with 8 wins this year, our 5 year average win/loss is worse than Brisbanes when they asked for one, as is our total win/ loss ratio, and we've finished lower on the ladder than the Lions over the same span of time.

I get that Brisbane have issues being a QLD club (including with player retention), but there are incentives for the AFL to give us a hit in the arm as well. A strong Carlton is good for the AFL in the long term, just as much as strengthening the national competition by helping out the expansion clubs north of the border.

We should ask for one this year, and in my view we have a very arguable case.

Its even more arguable if everything goes pear shaped this year.

8 wins this year and a developing young list is exactly why the AFL would tell us to piss off. The priority pick system is in place to help clubs who can't help themselves. We're beyond that now, and have so much young talent we're actually struggling to fit them into a best 22 right now. We don't need or deserve assistance, and an upward trend this year (in wins/losses, percentage or ladder finishes) would be the only evidence required to say we're becoming more competitive.

Again, by all means we can ask. But you've been campaigning for a priority pick for the last few years and it's yet to eventuate - given our growth an development why on earth would you think they'd give us one now?

 

[The Grover]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-03-01/drafts-wealth-of-sons-brothers-cousins-nephews

Oakleigh Chargers v Western Jets practice match this Sat at highgate Craigieburn 2pm

Manton is playing, not sure about Silvagni.

I'll be there so I'll keep an eye out for young SOS

 

[Malifice]

8 wins this year and a developing young list is exactly why the AFL would tell us to piss off. The priority pick system is in place to help clubs who can't help themselves.

No it's not. Priority picks are designed to give a boost to the poorest performing teams to help improve on-field performance. It has nothing to do with whether those clubs have 'shot themselves in the foot' or not.

And even if it was, you cant argue that our recent poor performances were not as the result of our own incompetence; in particular our poor drafting from 2007-2014 (over half a dozen bust 1st round draft picks in that time) and knee jerk coaching appointments (Malthouse) coming home to roost, requiring a 'total list reset'.

We're beyond that now, and have so much young talent we're actually struggling to fit them into a best 22 right now.

Take off your blue colored glasses. We've done a lot to fix the state of the list over the past few years, but as shown above for the prior 5 years we've been statistically worse than Brisbane with our performances.

We don't need or deserve assistance, and an upward trend this year (in wins/losses, percentage or ladder finishes) would be the only evidence required to say we're becoming more competitive.

I was basing the above numbers on an upward performance (specifically 8 wins this year; which is 2 more than last year, and a 33 percent improvement in wins).

I think we'll be lucky to win 2 more games than last year this season. I hope I'm wrong, but the loss of Gibbs and Docherty is going to hurt. We might be able to cover for their loss with growth from the kids, but relying on a young side is dangerous. They arent ready yet.

Of course we know that, and no sensible Carlton supporter is expecting much this year. Its a development year really, and a chance to get used to a more offensive (and thus more risky) game plan.

Again, by all means we can ask. But you've been crusading for a priority pick for the last few years and it's yet to eventuate - given our growth an development why on earth would you think they'd give us one now?

What growth and development exactly? Again, based on the numbers above:

2014: 13th (7 wins)
2015: 18th (4 wins)
2016: 14th (7 wins)
2017: 16th (6 wins)
2018: 16th? (8 wins?)

Thats assuming 2 more wins this year than last year (with no Gibbs and Docherty). If we manage the same number of wins as last year (6; which is a real possibility) and we likely finish last again. It's between us and GCs for the spoon for mine.

We'll improve from next year onwards, with the real growth coming in 2020 (likely assisted by the aquisition of free agents in 2019). Our window really opens from 2020 and onwards.

Now is the best time to ask, especially if the season pans out like I think it will (6-8 wins).

Around 8 wins this year and we have an arguable case to make. For every win less than 8, our case only gets stronger.

 

[Mr_Plow]

We should definitely ask, we're entitled to and there is a strong argument for an end of 1st round pick as Mal has elucidated.

 

[AT97]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-03-01/drafts-wealth-of-sons-brothers-cousins-nephews

Mate of mine at the chargers says Silvagni listed at 196cm.

that’s a lot of talls for one team to have if we do take him, even if Asos and Rowe were to ‘retire’. Something will have to give you would think.

 

[Malifice]

We should definitely ask, we're entitled to and there is a strong argument for an end of 1st round pick as Mal has elucidated.

That's what it's there for.

We are the authors of our own pain whether we care to admit it or not, due to a string of poor recruiting decisions over the 2007-2014 draft period (players and coaches). I'm extremely happy with how the club has changed over the past few years under the Bolton/ LoGiudice/ SOS regime. Instead of trying to polish a turd, they flushed the toilet and started again from ground zero.

New list, new culture, new game plan, new transparency with supporters and members, excellent long term list management and development. Carlton 2.0 if you will.

But there is no taking away from the fact that we've been consistently poor for 4 years now (on account of trying to fix a pretty big mess with the list and starting again). With all other things being equal that will be 5 years of poor performaces after this year. Most of us have around the 6-8 wins being about par this year, and have us pencilled in for a tough year (one of development and refining of a more offensive game plan).

No harm in asking, and I think we may very well have a strong case depending on how the year pans out.

 

[Robertio]

Oakleigh Chargers v Western Jets practice match this Sat at highgate Craigieburn 2pm

Manton is playing, not sure about Silvagni.

I'll be there so I'll keep an eye out for young SOS

Keep the other one on Manton, I hear he can play.

 

[Aphrodite]

Mal picking up where he left off last year ....... PP

 

[Soapy V]

Oakleigh Chargers v Western Jets practice match this Sat at highgate Craigieburn 2pm

Manton is playing, not sure about Silvagni.

I'll be there so I'll keep an eye out for young SOS

BSOS out for year with a shoulder. Can't see him playing

 

[Soapy V]

Keep the other one on Manton, I hear he can play.

Injured. No good

 

[Aphrodite]

All our father sons are no good.

Get it!

 

[Coona Blues]

Mate of mine at the chargers says Silvagni listed at 196cm.

that’s a lot of talls for one team to have if we do take him, even if Asos and Rowe were to ‘retire’. Something will have to give you would think.

With the rise and rise of Jones, Rowey looks gone come season's end, would love to see him get a gig (even back on rookie?)

ASOS is clearly a leader, but has spent half of his career in the rehab group. Was on light duties at Maroochydore in December
and is still not training with the main group by reports. Looks set for a coaching role sooner rather than later.

Phillips is talented, but his first year with us was the most productive of his career. Been O/S for treatment and still not on the
park. Contracted next season, but may end up an early retiree yet, with Lobbe almost certainly ahead in the pecking order.

Loved JGM as a prospect, but remains "just a stopper" hard to see him warranting a senior list promotion next year.

That is four big boys in line for culling at season's end, suspect one defender will survive.

Adding BSOS and another ruck of some description would seem a formality come draft/trade time.

Any survivor from above, and Levi, in the gun following season, perhaps Kerr if opportunity is not forthcoming.

We will have a better list balance in 2020, and the quality of our current developing talls will be known.