Autopsy Cats lose to Port by 6 points after being down by 10 goals
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Finknottle
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We restrict our mids' game time because they cannot go with the better midfielders who have bigger engines. Being second to the ball, most of the time chasing and tackling, would be taxing and might explain the need for more rotations. Geelong would kill for a player like Jason Horne-Francis who is elite with his work rate and skill level. Horne-Francis, Connor Rozee and Zak Butters are A grade midfielders. We do not have any of those at Geelong. Geelong's midfield is a work in progress.
cats_09
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It gets even more fun when you start to look at average disposals across the season & how their team fared - it's a nice to have players that average 30+ disposals, but it doesn't necessarily equate to team success
Players averaging 30+ disposals & their teams ladder position that season
2024, so far:
- Sam Walsh, 33.40 - 7th, but interestingly they've lost 3 of the 5 games he's played
- Caleb Serong, 33.33 - 9th
- Adam Treloar, 32.44 - 11th
- Nic Martin, 31.22 - 3rd
- Nick Daicos, 30.44 - 8th
- Harry Sheezel, 30.22 - 18th & winless
The highest disposal average Swan is Isaac Heeney (27.00) ranked 19th, and only once has he had 30 disposals this season
Our highest ranked is Max Holmes (24.11) ranked 45th, and he's also broken the magical 30 mark once this season
The highest ranked Demon is Clayton Oliver (25.11) ranked 30th, while Petracca (24.56) is 40th
And Brisbane currently have 4 players ranked in the top 30 - Neale (27.38) 16th, Hugh McCluggage (27.11) 18th, Dayne Zorko (25.89) 25th & Josh Dunkley (25.44) 27th. But having 4 high disposal winners doesn't seem much help to them so far this year as they find themselves in 13th with just 3 wins & a draw
2023:
- Tom Green, 32.05 - 7th, then a prelim final
- Nick Daicos, 31.00 - 1st, then premiers
- Darcy Parish, 30.83 - 11th
- Caleb Serong, 30.68 - 14th
- Clayton Oliver, 30.27 - 4th & straight sets
BTW, Fremantle also has Andrew Brayshaw sit in 7th for avg disposals with 29.13, but that didn't help make them a dangerous team last season
GWS actually had 4 players ranked in the top 25 with Coniglio (28.24) 13th, Whitfield (26.96) 23rd, & Kelly (26.91) 24th, which appears the most for any team
As for Collingwood, the next highest average after Nick was brother Josh, who along with Tom Mitchell averaged 25.00 disposals to be the 38th highest average last season
Last year's runner ups, their highest ranked was Neale at 28th, with an avg of 26.69
2022:
- Rory Laird, 32.95 - 14th
- Clayton Oliver, 32.74 - 2nd & straight sets
- Sam Walsh, 32.10 - 9th
- Darcy Parish, 31.31 - 15th
- Jackson Macrae, 30.65 - 8th & lost elimination final
- Zach Merrett, 30.11 - 15th
So Essendon have 2 of the top 6 average disposal winners & they had a poor 2022
Carlton had 4 of the top 14 disposal winners; as well as Walsh they had George Hewitt (28.47) 10th, Sam Docherty (28.41) 12th, Patrick Cripps (28.14) 14th, and they missed out of finals by percentage... Maybe a 5th high disposal winner
As for the 2 grand finalists that year - our highest average disposal player was Cam Guthrie with 24.52 ranked 43rd, followed by Mitch Duncan with 23.41 to be ranked 58th. While for Sydney, Luke Parker avg 24.44 & Callum Mills avg 24.40 to be ranked 45th & 46th
2021:
- Tom Mitchell, 34.32 - 14th
- Jackson Macrae, 33.88 - 5th & finished runner ups
- Ollie Wines, 32.38 - 2nd & out in the preliminary final
- Rory Laird, 32.00 - 15th
- Touk Miller, 31.81 - 16th
- Clayton Oliver, 31.56 - 1st & premiers
- Zach Merrett, 31.52 - 8th & lost the elimination final
- Darcy Parish, 30.48 - 8th & lost the elimination final
After Oliver, the next highest ranked Melbourne player was Petracca at 10th with an avg of 29.20, and then you've got to go to 36th & Salem for their next best
While for the Bulldogs their second highest player was Bontempelli ranked 27th with 26.73
The first team to reach their 3 players with the highest disposal average was the last place finishing North Melbourne who had 4 wins for the season - Aaron Hall (27.90) 17th, Jy Simpkin (26.91) 25th & Ben Cunnington (26.80) at 26th
This all suggests to me that a reliance on just 1 or 2 players doesn't guarantee success - instead it's also about finding balance across all lines on the field
Finknottle
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I'm not worried about Geelong's starting midfielders getting less than 30 disposals, I'm worried about them getting less than 15 disposals as happened against Port Adelaide. I'm not sure why we need to be defensive about it. Just admit it and work on improving it.
Oscar was smashing Conway in that first quarter. We got very lucky there, and the game changed as a result. Had Oscar played the whole game, we might have lost that match.
Kobe Gryant
In memoriam of 'The Cliff™' Est: 2011-TBC
They won't play him after saying they're going to rest him even with Cameron out.
The club won't admit it publicly, but personally, I see them thinking that this week is a trojan horse for the decision that is coming on Hawkins/Neale.
They get a chance to trial it over the guise of 'managing' Hawk rather than dropping him, and they'll assess how things look.
FWIW, that won't necessarily just be the goal return either.
It'll be contests and marks around the ground, GPS numbers, and I would predict that our F50 pressure will be the highest it's been in god knows how long when subbing out the big Hawk for the athlete in Neale.
cats_09
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I'm not sure anyone's being defensive about the game from Friday night and instead there's agreement we need to see more from our midfield, especially early in the match
But over recent weeks, especially with a couple of losses, there's been this suggestion of the need to be breaking this apparent "magical" 30 disposal mark if we're to be a serious contender - yet one of the things that made us so dangerous across the first 7 rounds was the evenness of our performances & not an over reliance on 1 or 2 players to be doing the heavy lifting
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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You're using stats to mount nonsensical assumptions.
There is no excuse or justification for the low productivity of our midfield, or their low play times.
We are garbage at CP and clearances and unless that changes our game plan will not stand up when it matters.
None of Bruhn, Clark or Bowes deserve due praise, other than to comment that they have improved. Blicavs, Atkins and Parfitt have regressed.
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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That really is not an accurate assessment.
What got us this start is being so clinical and decisive on turnover.
Not the performance or evenness of the midfielders.
It gets even more fun when you start to look at average disposals across the season & how their team fared - it's a nice to have players that average 30+ disposals, but it doesn't necessarily equate to team success
Players averaging 30+ disposals & their teams ladder position that season
2024, so far:
- Sam Walsh, 33.40 - 7th, but interestingly they've lost 3 of the 5 games he's played
- Caleb Serong, 33.33 - 9th
- Adam Treloar, 32.44 - 11th
- Nic Martin, 31.22 - 3rd
- Nick Daicos, 30.44 - 8th
- Harry Sheezel, 30.22 - 18th & winless
The highest disposal average Swan is Isaac Heeney (27.00) ranked 19th, and only once has he had 30 disposals this season
Our highest ranked is Max Holmes (24.11) ranked 45th, and he's also broken the magical 30 mark once this season
The highest ranked Demon is Clayton Oliver (25.11) ranked 30th, while Petracca (24.56) is 40th
And Brisbane currently have 4 players ranked in the top 30 - Neale (27.38) 16th, Hugh McCluggage (27.11) 18th, Dayne Zorko (25.89) 25th & Josh Dunkley (25.44) 27th. But having 4 high disposal winners doesn't seem much help to them so far this year as they find themselves in 13th with just 3 wins & a draw
2023:
- Tom Green, 32.05 - 7th, then a prelim fungal
- Nick Daicos, 31.00 - 1st, then premiers
- Darcy Parish, 30.83 - 11th
- Caleb Serong, 30.68 - 14th
- Clayton Oliver, 30.27 - 4th & straight sets
BTW, Fremantle also has Andrew Brayshaw sit in 7th for avg disposals with 29.13, but that didn't help make them a dangerous team last season
GWS actually had 4 players ranked in the top 25 with Coniglio (28.24) 13th, Whitfield (26.96) 23rd, & Kelly (26.91) 24th, which appears the most for any team
As for Collingwood, the next highest average after Nick was brother Josh, who along with Tom Mitchell averaged 25.00 disposals to be the 38th highest average last season
Last year's runner ups, their highest ranked was Neale at 28th, with an avg of 26.69
2022:
- Rory Laird, 32.95 - 14th
- Clayton Oliver, 32.74 - 2nd & straight sets
- Sam Walsh, 32.10 - 9th
- Darcy Parish, 31.31 - 15th
- Jackson Macrae, 30.65 - 8th & lost elimination final
- Zach Merrett, 30.11 - 15th
So Essendon have 2 of the top 6 average disposal winners & they had a poor 2022
Carlton had 4 of the top 14 disposal winners; as well as Walsh they had George Hewitt (28.47) 10th, Sam Docherty (28.41) 12th, Patrick Cripps (28.14) 14th, and they missed out of finals by percentage... Maybe a 5th high disposal winner
As for the 2 grand finalists that year - our highest average disposal player was Cam Guthrie with 24.52 ranked 43rd, followed by Mitch Duncan with 23.41 to be ranked 58th. While for Sydney, Luke Parker avg 24.44 & Callum Mills avg 24.40 to be ranked 45th & 46th
2021:
- Tom Mitchell, 34.32 - 14th
- Jackson Macrae, 33.88 - 5th & finished runner ups
- Ollie Wines, 32.38 - 2nd & out in the preliminary final
- Rory Laird, 32.00 - 15th
- Touk Miller, 31.81 - 16th
- Clayton Oliver, 31.56 - 1st & premiers
- Zach Merrett, 31.52 - 8th & lost the elimination final
- Darcy Parish, 30.48 - 8th & lost the elimination final
After Oliver, the next highest ranked Melbourne player was Petracca at 10th with an avg of 29.20, and then you've got to go to 36th & Salem for their next best
While for the Bulldogs their second highest player was Bontempelli ranked 27th with 26.73
The first team to reach their 3 players with the highest disposal average was the last place finishing North Melbourne who had 4 wins for the season - Aaron Hall (27.90) 17th, Jy Simpkin (26.91) 25th & Ben Cunnington (26.80) at 26th
This all suggests to me that a reliance on just 1 or 2 players doesn't guarantee success - instead it's also about finding balance across all lines on the field
Wow that's amazing! As I was reading down it, I quickly came to the conclusion you mentioned. I suppose the trick is with the multiple high performers from the likes Carlton and Melbs, to get them ALL doing that on the same day. A virtual impossibility. I suppose it's also opposition dependent, and how they received and distributed their gets, TOG etc..
And we'll take a team of consistent 24 plus, and the occasional 30, if we can improve, into finals.
cats_09
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You really need to take off the blinkers when it comes to Parfitt - he's definitely improved this season & really stepped up; hard to see him losing his spot in the team
While his avg disposals is slightly down, he's avg career high tackles, clearances (including centre & stoppage clearances each at career high levels) , inside 50s, metres gained & intercepts
He's doing exactly what a player in a contract year would want to be doing - don't be surprised to see him get a contract extension
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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I mention 6 players. You pick out one.
Stepped up is highly fanciful. Rubbish against Carlton. And was putrid on JHF on Friday night. Very lucky that Stanley and Holmes had worse first halves.
But alas improving from his horrid 2023 is no prize. Tackles and metres gained are irrelevant. 1 means not having the ball and the other is a pish stat. FA year and under 20 a game average in 7/8 seasons. Sub-standard.
Kobe Gryant
In memoriam of 'The Cliff™' Est: 2011-TBC
What's your solution to this though?
For the sake of argument, let's say you're right...what better idea do you have?
It's all well and good to complain about the same things every week, but it can get old when you're not offering an alternative.
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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We don't have a solution this year, I merely disagree with the praise being doled out for what is largely ranging from decent output (bruhn) to sub-standard performance (Clark). With everyone else in between.
The best we can do IMV is to continue with the plan for fast rebounds, hope that Hawkins and Cameron fire and score accurately. And that we get something better than present in the ruck.
But the solution is via trade/FA and trade.
p.s. To me, the undue praise gets old quick.
Kobe Gryant
In memoriam of 'The Cliff™' Est: 2011-TBC
That's better, we're on a similar page then.
Clark isn't getting praised though.
Think we're in universal agreement on here that he's not ready, and the closest thing to what you're calling 'praise' has been "He has some classy moments, he'll be a player in a few years".
On his current performance, nobody is under any illusions that he's not up to it, and if we had everybody available (Guthrie for the first two months, Danger since) he wouldn't be playing.
Bruhn was the same last year, and a lot of the 'praise' you're reading is a by-product of the rubbish he's copped from two very specific posters on this board.
It's personal vendetta stuff, not dissimilar to you with Parfitt.
It's human nature that there's going to be a response to that, especially when he's showing promise. Hardly the finished product, but good signs for the future.
Unless of course you're insinuating a young player can only be praised if they're dominating in the Sheezel & Daicos mold, which I can only assume you're not, as nobody would be that daft.
CatToTheFuture
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How much of the praise is these boys exceeding a low expectation though? I mean, I expected us to get slaughtered because of the weak midfield and we're actually adapting.
If you want a trade in too I feel like the best thing you can do is continue to win games while displaying a weakness that clearly matches what the trade in brings. You can go to Bailey Smith and say - we have a Bailey Smith shaped hole and we're still winning more than bevo.
In that sense the mids are doing exactly what we need. They're fighting a brave rearguard action and holding out for reinforcements, but they're actually winning back ground we never thought they would.
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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Two myths on this board.
Low ToG is a strategy to spread the load. No doubt it is. Doesn't mean it is a good strategy.
That I am wrong in my appraisal. He will not be missed and much better off with greener pastures as a RFA.
Some people just decide they don't like someone, and from then on nothing that person does can ever be right.
The big worry one is Blicavs - has father time suddenly caught up with him , he over the years has been tremendous bailing out/helping out the midfield big time , but he is really struggling - either he is injured or he has suddenly fallen off the cliff , and no supporter would have picked that happening in 2024 , because last year he played and moved like his normal self
You know the Steeplechaser was going to go on forever , but the end might be approaching quickly for him and if so that will be a hell of a loss for Geelong
You know the Steeplechaser was going to go on forever , but the end might be approaching quickly for him and if so that will be a hell of a loss for Geelong
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Blitz is fine tbh and playing his role. And tbh when all four of bruhn , Bowes, Clark and Parf are playing we haven't struggled too much. It's when one or two of those cogs are missing or an underdone Guthrie we've been exposed.
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Was shit against Port. Constantly caught out a few steps behind their mids, jogging along behind them. Too slow to react, not fast enough to catch up. Our midfield is by far our weakest point, so he's been all right in some games but he's been shown up when the heat has been on against better players. He needed to stand up as one of the few senior mids on Friday, and he couldn't do it. No Bruhn, Danger, Bowes, and he's lost. Which just suggests that we shouldn't be relying on a guy like him going forward. We desperately need Bruhn and Bowes back.
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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I don't think it should be too controversial that in the first half when the game was lost the worst performers were Stanley, Holmes, O'Connor, Parfitt, Clark.
No Grundy not only made us weaker but made a rival formidable. It seems that chess game was never consolidated. I reckon they banked on Rhys being serviceable and Conway not being injured. Epic fail.
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Yeah this bit is fine to comment on and critique. It's still not enough footy with reduced minutes. Pure midfielders getting 13-16 touches aren't going to get the job done.
Where it IS silly to have a meltdown is when we have a bunch of midfielders mostly getting 20 odd touches (and we roll an extra or two through there compared to most sides) on 65-67%ish game time. Because it is objectively not worse to have 5 guys on 65% game time getting 100 disposals between them compared to 3-4 blokes doing the same on 85% game time. Our half backs, half forwards and wingmen all tend to be prolific by position and with higher time on ground to balance it out.
So you need to look at the wider picture. The Port game wasn't acceptable (mostly first half). Melbourne wasn't really (no Dangerfield, then losing Bruhn made it tricky with Guthrie having a quiet game). Carlton, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Brisbane etc? We did enough in the engine room between the many we rolled through there, because we used the ball well when we got it and pressured opposition mids so that their possession chains were mostly not destructive.
What on Earth? Blicavs was in our top 3 best players on the weekend.
