Caulfield Cup Day

[Tim56]

R4, no.1: Teranaba. Group 1's are Group 1's, and the Sydney colts seem better this year. Conceding substantial weight but at $9 is a good chance.

R5, no.2: Shadoways. As Mr. Ryan said, hard to see it losing here.

R6, no.3: Bentley Biscuit. Ultra consistent - has won 9/12. So long as he handles the Melbourne way he is every chance, $3.20 is ok but you should do better.

R7, no.2: Divine Madonna. Killed them last start and has clearly taken the next step.

R9, no.4: Show Barry. Ultra consistent and carries weight well. Forgive last start as massively down in class.

Tim's Caulfield Cup Preview.

1. Delta Blues: By all accounts out here as travelling partner and you can safely leave out.

2. Imperial Stride. English form is very good but has had setback this week. Main game for this guy is in two weeks and prepared to go past here - don't ignore in tri's and F4's though.

3. Railings. Nothing wrong with his form. This is what he has been set for and the trip, the barrier are in his favour. Definite winning chance and must for multiples.

4. Roman Arch. I hope so but I don't think so.

5. Our Smoking Joe. Honest handicapper who needs it wet to win a race of this class. Happy to take on at $6, but if he gets rain then look out.

6. Headturner. Will improve massively at this trip but lead up form has not been bad. Absolute must for multiples and nice e/w chance at $26. Drawn very badly but will go back and has D. Beadman on.

7. Grand Zulu. Boss reckons it is a run short and it's hard to disagree. Will go forward and can be in it for a long way though.

8. Short Pause. Disgrace it is in the field. How much have these owners blown on importing absolute cats? The only one that has done anything is Hugs Dancer, and he won a Craiglee, which wasn't exactly what he was set for.

9. Tawqeet. Nice win in the Metrop but had everything in his favour. Drawn well again and not badly weighted but main game probably two weeks away with this guy.

10. Activation. All his form has been excellent, has drawn a good barrier, can't fault him. Run in the Metrop was huge - should have won and definitely running out a strong 2400m. Will be midfield and is my selection at the odds.

11. Pop Rock. Must for the multiples, on his best Japanese form would be hard to beat but again, I think the main game is in a fortnight for him and will need this run.

12. Serenade Rose. Cannot win from barrier 15.

13. Aqua D'Amore. How this is double the price of SR I don't know. Top trainer, will run out the trip, beautifully drawn and weighted. Great chance at odds.

14. Dizelle. Couldn't win if she started now.

15. Ice Chariot. Ditto.

16. Testafiable. Nice horse and I'm not going to dissuade you from taking the $51, but don't know he has the class to win here.

17. Sphenophyta. Now, this horse is an excellent chance and I don't need to repeat why. However there are reasons I won't be backing him.

1. Price.

2. Distance. The Caloundra Cup he failed to run out a strong 2400m, and while I'm not saying he can't do it he isn't proven, and many others at better odds are.

3. Weights. Overrated. Will be carrying 51 (Nikolic riding over) and there is only 5Kg between him and the topweight. IMO having Nikolic on is a ridiculous decision and I don't understand why stewards allowed it.

18. Growl. The winner of the Caulfield Cup hasn't come out of the Herbert Power in God knows how long and he isn't that much of a revelation as a racehorse that he can change it. Ridiculous price.

19. Land 'N Stars. There are good reasons it isn't getting a run.

20. Zipping. If he was to get a run he'd almost be my selection but I don't think he will. In any case, barrier 21 does make it tough. His was the best run out of the Turnbull.

21. Stormhill. No.

Selections:

10. Activation
3. Railings
20. Zipping
13. Aqua D'Amore

Will be including 5, 6, 9, 11, 17 in my multiples.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

At this stage Ive only done a little form, but Im very keen on 1 very early.
Get a bank in the 1st.

Race 1 No 1 Fun In Flight
I just think she is better than these.
I love it when horses that are just a rung below the top flight are saved & placed in races such as this. The danger being that 1400m only 8 starters, there may be little pace in the race, but Im prepared to back Steve Arnold to do the right thing & place her to advantage.

 

[hawkeyeqld]

After going e/w on Casual Pass and Pompeii Ruler (won me a motza over last 4 runs, 35-1 1st; 9-1 1st; 5-1 dnp; 11-1 2nd +$81 ex) last week plus exactas I'm a mile up in the big ones.

For the Caulfield Cup.

Win bets this week on:
Activation
Headturner
Aqua D' Amore
Testafiable
Tawqeet (h/u)

Quinellas:
The above 5 plus Sphenophyta.. and Stormhill if it gets a run.

Trifectas:
I'll play around the above.

Also...
17 Sphenophyta (NZ) (8) 50.0 6yo b g (D L Freedman at Rye) D Nikolic
Owner: J O'Neill, P N J Racing Synd, T Karlusic, N Fraser, B Fogarty, M Pejic, M C Throsby, M Goodwin, R Otto & Shane Crawford Racing Breeding: Groom Dancer (USA) - Ballermoss (NZ) (by Lord Ballina) Colours: Red, purple sash, white sleeves, purple cap.

Omen for Hawks fans perhaps?
Personally I am on at 71-1 for MC, happy to wait til then.

 

[sethlad]

Tim's Caulfield Cup Preview.

1. Delta Blues: By all accounts out here as travelling partner and you can safely leave out.
This is a serious horse,2nd in a Japan Cup.Cant win but shouldnt be $101.

2. Imperial Stride. English form is very good but has had setback this week. Main game for this guy is in two weeks and prepared to go past here - don't ignore in tri's and F4's though.
Not the usual on pace Godolphin horse,wait for Flem

3. Railings. Nothing wrong with his form. This is what he has been set for and the trip, the barrier are in his favour. Definite winning chance and must for multiples.
3 kgs more than last year,hasnt won since & not going as well

4. Roman Arch. I hope so but I don't think so.
Great old horse,wouldnt surprise me if he weighed in


5. Our Smoking Joe. Honest handicapper who needs it wet to win a race of this class. Happy to take on at $6, but if he gets rain then look out.
Terrific in Turnbull but unders for mine

6. Headturner. Will improve massively at this trip but lead up form has not been bad. Absolute must for multiples and nice e/w chance at $26. Drawn very badly but will go back and has D. Beadman on.
Up & comer with the right form,definite hope.


7. Grand Zulu. Boss reckons it is a run short and it's hard to disagree. Will go forward and can be in it for a long way though.
Not for mine


8. Short Pause. Disgrace it is in the field.
Hasnt got warm so far,this no easier

9. Tawqeet. Nice win in the Metrop but had everything in his favour. Drawn well again and not badly weighted but main game probably two weeks away with this guy.
Agree

10. Activation. All his form has been excellent, has drawn a good barrier, can't fault him. Run in the Metrop was huge - should have won and definitely running out a strong 2400m. Will be midfield and is my selection at the odds.
My query is Lloyd's horses struggle at Gp 1

11. Pop Rock. Must for the multiples, on his best Japanese form would be hard to beat but again, I think the main game is in a fortnight for him and will need this run.
Who knows,yes he beat Eye Popper but is that relevant 12 mths later?

12. Serenade Rose. Cannot win from barrier 15.
Not for me

13. Aqua D'Amore. How this is double the price of SR I don't know. Top trainer, will run out the trip, beautifully drawn and weighted. Great chance at odds.
I really hope not,more agony for Gai please

14. Dizelle. Couldn't win if she started now.
nah

15. Ice Chariot. Ditto.
Can stay but theyll be too sharp here

16. Testafiable. Nice horse and I'm not going to dissuade you from taking the $51, but don't know he has the class to win here.
Nah

17. Sphenophyta. Now, this horse is an excellent chance and I don't need to repeat why. However there are reasons I won't be backing him.
1. Price.
2. Distance.
3. Weights.

Certainly wouldnt be backing him at $4 but clearly the horse to beat.
Disagree with the weight argument but agree he's a slight distance risk.
Having said that,he's a different horse with lee & we often overlook the obvious.

18. Growl. The winner of the Caulfield Cup hasn't come out of the Herbert Power in God knows how long and he isn't that much of a revelation as a racehorse that he can change it. Ridiculous price.
Cant see it winning,has been up since Christmas.

I like Sphenophyta from Headturner.
In the Coongy I cant split Spinney & Polar Bear.

Good Punting all
seth

 

[cjwalkley]

I've been enjoying this board for awhile, so thought I'd contribute with my thoughts for Caulfield:

R4 - #4 Egomaniac - has huge wraps in Perth, and the WA horses are doing very well this carnival. Been favourably compared to Plastered.

R5 - #2 Shadoways - has been sensational this time around. Quinella him up with 1,3,7,9.

R6 - #3 Bentley Biscuit - as long as it handles the Melbourne way of going, way too good for these.

R7 - #2 Divine Madonna - has improved since barn storming win and good gallop during the week. Exacta with #14 Napa Sky for second.

R8 - #10 Activation - should be a very good each way chance, although Sphenophyta is red hot. Add the 1,6,9,11,12,13 into trifectas.

R9 - #3 Polar Bear - has been close up lately and ripe for this race. Well placed.

R10 - #3 Crepe de Chine - needed the run first up and should be very good 'get-out stakes' odds.

 

[Delidio]

12. Serenade Rose. Cannot win from barrier 15.

why?

 

[AAMI]

Why is Show Barry such big odds in race 9? It just got pipped by Zipping 2 starts back.

 

[Tim56]

Why is Show Barry such big odds in race 9? It just got pipped by Zipping 2 starts back.

Fairly ordinary in the Turnbull but this is a lot easier.

 

[Pres]

At the risk of egg on face you'd have to think Divine Madonna is a risk around Caulfield out of barrier 5. Will get back and need luck. I wouldn't be tipping in at less than $3.

The worry about Sphenophyta is it's temperament. The horse has a history of getting stirred up. Cup Day at Caulfield is a raucus atmosphere where the crowd get very close to the horses. Again $3.20 is a risky bet IMO.

 

[Tim56]

why?

She isn't that good a mare that she can afford a barrier like that. I think they'll go forward and be caught wide - if they go back there are too many better run on horses.

 

[Benny_]

Pop Rock and Our Smoking Joe in the big one.

 

[HeLMie]

Sportsbet have Activation V Serenade rose.

Both paying 1.9, great value for Activation...

 

[roostersgal4eva]

I'll go Pop Rock for tommorow and not sure for the big one

 

[danielz_23]

Race 5 - sounds like there is little doubt regarding Shadoways

Race 6 - Bentley Biscuit looks set for this race. I find New Edge and interesting prospect however - 2nd to Racing to win 2 starts back and Royal Ida is a favourite after picking him at $14 a couple of weeks back - cant fault him.

Race 7 - Everyone will be wild on Divine Madonna trying to cash up before the big race. Lets say it doesnt win (because I dont think he is as good as the odds will be) - I like the look of Absolute Dream and Belle Bizarre

Race 8 - Everyone has an opinion on this race... I think its open to seven chances. I'll spare you the ramble but lets just say... Railings

Race 9 - Show Barry some love, Callow is going to bring this baby home. Fantastic over the distance from 6 starts, favoured Polar Bear hasnt even seen the distance. Spinney the only threat

Race 10 - I'm going to bank on Megadeal with my quaddie. Hayes/Williams pull me through!!

 

[steady_eddie]

In the big race I'm pretty keen on Pop Rock especially with D Oliver on board..
I also like activation and Aqua D'amore is a good bet for a place.

In race 9 my special for the day is Polar Bear, has been unlucky its past couple of starts coming up against El Sugundo and then Racing to Win and I can't see any horses of that class that it will have to overcome in this race.

Good Luck to All for the weekends betting.

Cheers

Steady

 

[danielz_23]

Sportsbet have Activation V Serenade rose.

Both paying 1.9, great value for Activation...

Take it at your own risk - dont underestimate Serenade rose or more importantly dont overrate Activation. Thats exactly why its on there.

 

[ECHUCABOY]

Guys very difficult to pick one out atm, with this weather. If the rain continues to fall you would have to think our smoking joe, however it does have a knack for not quite getting there. We have already discussed the shorter straight and I think that, that along with the track(thats if its rain affected) will suit something thats on the pace.....anyway with that said here are a few more thoughts....

I really think that Imperial Stride will be in it a long way, its form over the distance and in some pretty descent races is right up there....I really doubt this injury was to severe, however its publicity will definetly raise the odds. Winning form is good form!

It was mentioned that this is not one of godolphins better horses however, this is a spud of a Caufield Cup Field, how could something like Growl be so short. A lot of these horses have the potential to win a big race however, none of them really have (railings, pop rock) against all ages.


Anyway guys thats my spiel, I also like Aqua D'more, pop rock, activation and throw in sphenophyta.

In the other races im liking art house, polar bear (should brain em) and shadoways, throw in Dea aswell and xaarnthe, go the roughies!

Happy punting

 

[danielz_23]

It was mentioned that this is not one of godolphins better horses however, this is a spud of a Caufield Cup Field, how could something like Growl be so short. A lot of these horses have the potential to win a big race however, none of them really have (railings, pop rock) against all ages.

Bit confused by what you were saying there but... Railings won last year...

 

[ECHUCABOY]

Bit confused by what you were saying there but... Railings won last year...

Obviously I meant those horses were the only exceptions, however it seems railings is the only one, I thought pop rock won a group 1 but it hasnt..........

 

[Ricketts]

1) -

2) Enemy Of Average

3) -

4) Ankh Morpork

5) Shadoways

6) Volitant

7) Absolute Dream

Cup) Sphenophyta... Activation... Aqua D'Amore... Our Smoking Joe

9) Show Barry

10) Hate the mares race late on in the day.

 

[eastaugh36]

I'm pumped for tomorrow!!!! I love the big days and the great racing!

BTW, don't forget to get your tips in for bigfooty spring punting competition. See the other thread for details and to submit your tips!

 

[nicho_magic]

ok question, last year did eye popper have a spell before his run in the caulfield cup?
ie. was his run first up?

 

[Delidio]

zipping in have any effect on tips?

 

[thecarpetsnake]

5. Our Smoking Joe. Honest handicapper who needs it wet to win a race of this class. Happy to take on at $6, but if he gets rain then look out.

I like your logic with most of them Tim, but I think you're too harsh on Joe. Is $5.50 on IAS which is too short, but he's been very solid for WFA for quite a while now. Gets better every year. Hope he doesn't win, but think he's right in it.

I'm hoping for Pop Rock, but Sphenophyta looks very tough to beat. Headturner is big overs IMO...

 

[Tim56]

I like your logic with most of them Tim, but I think you're too harsh on Joe. Is $5.50 on IAS which is too short, but he's been very solid for WFA for quite a while now. Gets better every year. Hope he doesn't win, but think he's right in it.

I'm hoping for Pop Rock, but Sphenophyta looks very tough to beat. Headturner is big overs IMO...

I'm starting to come round now myself with the scratching of Imperial Stride. Prospect of rain and I think Cassidy is going to try and lead on him from barrier 2, as he did in the BMW. I'm still very disappointed for Callow though.