Champion Data 2013 Prospectus Review & Discussion

[Aussiemac82]

Just got my copy today.

Interesting pre-season reading for those with footy withdrawals and already planning their next fantasy teams.

Just wanted to highlight a few things from the 2012 season;

Champion Data Awards
Mr Consistent - Jimmy Bartel
Rankings Consistency

Defenders Nightmare - Tom Hawkins
Win % Offensive Contests

2012 Team of Year
Corey Enright - Top 2 ranked defenders
Disposals - Above Average
Cont Posessions - Elite
Intercept Possesions- Elite
Intercept Marks - Elite
Meters gained - Above Average
Spoils - Elite

Paul Chapman - Top 2 ranked mid forwards
Disposal- Avg
Contest Pos- Avg
Clearances - Avg
Score Assist - Below Avg
Goals - Elite
Tackles - Above Avg

Steve Johnson
Disposal - Above Avg
Contest Pos - Avg
Clearances - Avg
Score Assist - Elite
Goals - Above Avg
Tackles - Above Avg

Forward line selection process was;
Minimum 15 H&A games
Top ranked key forward
Top ranked general forward in Fwd50
Top two ranked mid-forwards
The next highest ranked key forward
The next two highest ranked forwards of the comp (1 on bench)


Geelong is also the highest ranked Offensive % in the league with 38%. Just ahead of WCE.

Jimmy, SJ and Mitch Duncan have our highest Time on ground/Bench ratio. In the top ten

Pods ranked 4th for Shot at goal %


I will have a read tonight ( sneaking glances at work at the moment ) and post some more findings.

Thoughts on the book and Geelongs numbers?

 

[porksy]

I personally think there are better mid/fwds than Chappy out there. Would like to see where Chappy would have ranked if he played primarily up forward in 2012.

 

[barmy44]

Champion Data Awards
Mr Consistent - Jimmy Bartel
Rankings Consistency

what does this actually mean? that his scores each week are around the same amount? are they good scores?

 

[Aussiemac82]

what does this actually mean? that his scores each week are around the same amount? are they good scores?

It states "... Extremely durable ... 20 games every season since 2005" however, he averaged his fewest cd points last year but increased defensively rating elite at pressure acts and tackles. Also recorded his highest contested pos rate since 2002.

Dt points 2008 - 2012 , 113, 109, 105, 97, 96

Doesn't say much else.

 

[Aussiemac82]

Player Classifications

Elite Players - Top 10% of position

Joel Selwood
Corey Enright
Tom Hawkins
Harry Taylor

Above Average - Top 35%

HMac
Kelly
SJ
Jimmy
Cappy
Mackie
Pods
J Humt
Stokes
Lonergan

Average - Middle 30% of Position

J Corey
Mitch Duncan
Allen Chrestensen
Trent West
Jared Rivers
Dan Menzel
S Motlop

Below Average- Bottom 35% of position

Varcoe
T Hunt
Caddy
J Murdoch
Stringer
Smedts
M Brown

Poor - Bottom 10% of postion

Vardy ( Restricted due to injury)
Guthrie ( He ranked in the poor category for disposals per match as his role was purely defence. When he did when the ball his kicking ranked above average )


???? - Less than 5 games

Simpson
GHS
Cowan
Schroder
McCarthy
Bews
Kersten
Hamling
Thurlow
Hartman

Rookie

Walker
Sheringham
Bathie
Burbary
Eardley
Bliclavs

 

[Aussiemac82]

List Summary

Average Age 24y 141d
Ave games 76.2
Ave Height 188.3cm
Right Footers 36
Left Footers 4


Age Breakdown
<21 12
21-24 13
25-29 10
30> 5

Games Played
<25 18
25 - 49 4
50-99 3
100-149 6
150-199 4
200-299 5

 

[Aussiemac82]

Love this bit

"...in analysing the lists they are a club that has more players who can slot into a particular role when required than any other"

" Its list management at its very best"

The New Wave

Walker
Guthrie
Bundy
Caddy
Eardley
Menzel
Horlin Smith
Schroder
Murdoch
Burbury

 

[Aussiemac82]

Has anyone else got a copy?

 

[FredLeDeux]

Has anyone else got a copy?

No mate, you just keep going!

 

[barmy44]

It states "... Extremely durable ... 20 games every season since 2005" however, he averaged his fewest cd points last year but increased defensively rating elite at pressure acts and tackles. Also recorded his highest contested pos rate since 2002.

Dt points 2008 - 2012 , 113, 109, 105, 97, 96

Doesn't say much else.

thanks man, hodgepodge wont enjoy reading his prospectus.

elite at pressure acts and tackles? he might catch rioli soon if he keeps it up.

 

[winty]

Is this out in shops yet, or can you just get it via Champion Data?

 

[Aussiemac82]

I ordered it through Champion data about mid December. I'm out in desert country at the moment and postage is usually terrible.

I had a quick read again last night and there is some interesting numbers about turnovers/givaways.

Some of the stats they only started collecting last year. It was interesting looking at our turnover rate compared to the other teams. It still shows that our skill level is high but the undisciplined acts increased. It goes on to explain goals and points scored from givaways/turnovers and how we recover from it. Where as, Essendons unforced turnovers averaged 5 more a game and get smashed on the scoreboard because of it. As a collective, our back 6 are in the top % of the league.

I'll put some more numbers up this afternoon.

 

[Aussiemac82]

Offensive One on One Contests - Higher % the better

1.Tomahawk had 59 contests for 29 wins @ 49.2%
2.Cloke 88 contests for 41 wins @46%
7. Buddy 79 contests for 27 wins @38.6%
10. Petrie 71 contests for 26 wins @ 36%

I have only listed the guys that had 50 or more contests.

Defensive Contests one on one - Lower % the better

Mcphairlane 15.6%
Maguire 16.2%
Hardingham 16.2%
B Reid 17.9%
Glass 18.2%
Patfull 18.4%
Talia 20%
Dawson 20.6%
Mohr 21.9%
Delaney 23.3%

Only listed players with 30 or more contests.
It's interesting that lonergan or Taylor aren't up there, but when you read into the criteria it makes sense. A contest was only recorded after a kick where the two players had body contact before the ball arrived and no third player had a chance to affect the outcome.

I read that as Taylor and lonergan are the best pair in the league. Always helping each other out.


Defensive Contests - Lower % the better

Geelong ranked equal 3rd behind WCE, Brisbane and Freo
Average 12.1 per game losing 3.6 @ 29.6%
The average across teams is 10.3 per game 3.3 @31.8%


Offensive Contests - Higher % the better

Geelong Ranked 1st infront of WCE, and Collingwood
10 contests at 3.8 wins for 38%
Surprisingly the premiers ranked 2nd last with 10.9 , 2.7 @24.6%
Freo is last with 9.5 , 2.3 @ 24.3%
Average is 10.3, 3.3 @31.8%

 

[winty]

Got my copy today too. Turns out it is now out in book shops (or at least it was for sale at Dymocks in Market Square). Here's some more numbers that I found interesting:

In 2012, Geelong ranked:

3rd in pressure applied,
2nd in tackles
2nd in kick to handball ratio in the forward half
4th in kick to pack %
1st in corridor use
18th in boundary use
1st in spotting up targets in our forwardline.

 

[manboob]

7. Buddy 79 contests for 27 wins @38.6%

It's no secret the hawks are predictable, but wow!

 

[Jon Douglas]

Just goes to show how the criteria for such data has not been worked out that well yet.

Backmen get nothing for keeping a dangerous forward goaless or quiet. Their game is often a negating one and so not a high possession one.

The data should also reflect this - that is they earn points for keeping a KP forward quiet. Each forward should be rated on their season thus far - and if the backmen keeps them to a lower score they get thos points - or something similar. With all the computer people out there you would think this would not be hard to do.

Surely a KP who kicks 8 goals has done a great job for his team and is well rewarded in Dreamteam points. But when a KP back keeps a KP forward who has been on fire all season keeps them to two goals and a handful of possessions - they have been a seriously influential player for their team - but this is generally not reflected in Dreamteam points.

Very poor system - and coaches rate shut down jobs. If I am right in thinking Lonergan has had only one Brownlow vote in his tenure as a KP backman - that just goes to show how the umpires have got it wrong as well.

Our current general judgements favour mids and fowards over backmen and run with players.

I just wish data collectors would set up their criteria better to reflect all roles on the field and give credit where credit is due. Afterall many coaches and serious footy commentators say Premiership teams are won by excellent backlines (and yet few of the backmen get the accolades and awards they deserve - and proof of that is we all know Scarlett could never win a Brownlow - but why not ?).

 

[winty]

Loved their discussion about our list management too. Have to quote this part, as it's too good to simply summarise...

Geelong's ability to replace key premiership players has been outstanding. Tom Lonergan turned himself into a high quality key defender to replace Tom Harley who retired at the end of 2009.

While Tom Hawkins has taken his time to reach his potential, at the age of 24 he is already All-Australian and won a Grand Final off his own boot. His timing was perfect - out Cameron Mooney, in 'Tomahawk'.

Taylor Hunt has stepped into the tagging role nicely after Cameron Ling pulled the pin at the end of 2011. He played 21 games in 2012, generally playing on the opposition's best outside midfielder.

So that leaves the eventual replacement of the core players who are aged 28 and over and still listed. We're a long way from writing these guys off, but in analysing the lists they have more players who can slot into a particular role when required than any other.

The table below shows the 'old wave' category - those 28 and over - and the 'new wave' players - the natural understudies who are all 22 and under. The Cats can take it slowly, grooming these guys in the VFL until they are ready. It's list management at its very best.

James Podsiadly (31) --> Josh Walker (20)
Corey Enright (31) --> Cameron Guthrie (20)
Paul Chapman (31) --> Allen Christensen (21)
Joel Corey (31) --> Josh Caddy (20)
Josh Hunt (31) --> Cameron Eardley (19)
Steve Johnson (29) --> Daniel Menzel (21)
Jimmy Bartel (29) --> George Horlin-Smith (20)
James Kelly (29) --> Jordan Schroder (20)
Andrew Mackie (28) --> Jordan Murdoch (21)
Mathew Stokes (28) --> George Burbury (20)

While they have the replacements, there is another list of 25-and-under players who have impressed and appear to have serious futures.

Joel Selwood, the man who should be retired by now given all the medical reports around the time of his draft, is 24 years 299 days at the start of Round 1. Yep, you read that right. He will be the rock of this club for many, many years. He's a star of the game who could get even better.

Add other players we have already seen at AFL level in Travis Varcoe (24), Mitch Duncan (21), Steven Motlop (22), Nathan Vardy (21), Jesse Stringer (21) and Billie Smedts (20) and the future appears bright. But there are no guarantees.

There is a heap of talent there, so Cats supporters, get your surfboards ready. This wave may not be as spectacular as the last, but it is certainly one worth riding.

 

[barmy44]

Loved their discussion about our list management too. Have to quote this part, as it's too good to simply summarise...

ive been quoting Aussiemac82 on bay 13 of late with these CD things... might have to pick a nice 'old and gawn' thread started by a hawthorn supporter and quote the above.

thanks for taking the time to type it up for us all

 

[Aussiemac82]

2nd Contested poss. Rate Against

Highlights how much we needed some ball winners in there.

 

[Aussiemac82]

List Quality

Defenders 1st
Midfield/Rucks 8th
Forwards 12th
Overall 7th

Hawks
Eagles
Swans
Dockers
Pies
Crows

11 of the top 14 cats ranked in the top 35% are over 28

 

[barmy44]

i couldnt help it... i bumped my first bay 13 thread. i feel dirty

 

[winty]

Disposal efficiency of those who played seniors last year (in order - average possessions in brackets)

T.Varcoe 100% (2.0)
D.Simpson 87.5% (4.0)
J.Hunt 85.1% (15.7)
L.McCarthy 83.3% (6.0)
H.Taylor 83.2% (16.2)
T.Lonergan 79.7% (11.4)
M.Brown 78.3% (7.7)
J.Rivers 78.0% (12.8)
C.Enright 77.9% (21.0)
C.Guthrie 77.7% (10.9)
P.Chapman 75.0% (20.4)
J.Stringer 75.0% (12.5)
J.Murdoch 73.5% (12.8)
M.Stokes 73.2% (15.5)
H.McIntosh 72.7% (15.7)
A.Mackie 71.2% (18.7)
T.Hunt 70.9% (15.0)
J.Selwood 70.3% (25.7)
G.Horlin-Smith 70.3% (12.3)
S.Motlop 68.9% (13.5)
J.Podsiadly 68.8% (11.9)
B.Smedts 68.7% (11.9)
M.Duncan 68.5% (18.2)
J.Kelly 67.4% (24.7)
T.Hawkins 67.3% (12.6)
S.Johnson 67.1% (22.1)
T.West 67.0% (10.2)
J.Bartel 66.9% (21.0)
A.Christensen 66.9% (19.4)
J.Caddy 66.5% (15.2)
J.Walker 65.5% (8.3)
J.Corey 63.8% (21.4)
N.Vardy 61.5% (6.5)
J.Sheringham 60.7% (11.2)
J.Schroder 45.5% (11.0)

Darn impressive effort by Josh Hunt there. Interestingly, he was the only defender not to lose a one-on-one contest out of the 83 defenders who were involved in at least 15 one-on-one duels in the league as well.

 

[winty]

Some interesting stats observations:

Joel Corey - Geelong won a clearance 13% more often than the opposition when he was in at the centre bounce, the best differential of the top 50 centre bounce attendees in the AFL.

Mitch Duncan - Involved in 23% of our scoring chains - ranked 3rd behind Steve Johnson and Tom Hawkins.

Corey Enright - Ranked 14th in the AFL for rebounds from defensive 50, with 37% of those resulting in an inside 50 down the other end, the highest percentage of the top 50.

Tom Hawkins - 4th most used target inside 50 in the AFL, with Geelong maintaining possession 48% of the time, the equal best percentage of the top 10 targets.

Josh Hunt - Took the 14th most kick ins of any player, with 38% of them resulting in an inside 50, the highest percentage of the top 20.

Taylor Hunt - Ryan Griffen and Dane Swan were the only two players to record more than 20 possessions while he was tagging them.

James Kelly - 34% of his centre bounce clearances resulted in a score, the equal 4th highest percentage of the top 50 clearance gatherers.

Tom Lonergan - 54% of the turnovers created from his pressure acts resulted in a score, the highest percentage of the top 300 pressure players in the league.

Steven Motlop - 34% of his forward 50 entries resulted in a Geelong mark, the 4th highest percentage of the 175 players who recorded at least 40 inside 50's.

Jordan Murdoch - Recorded an average gain of 36m per kick, the 3rd highest gain in the league behind Clinton Young and Lewis Jetta.

Joel Selwood - Was number one in the league for clearances from centre bounces, and 8th for total clearances.

Trent West - Attended the 5th most centre bounces of any ruckman, and when in the centre Geelong won the clearance 8% more often than their opponents, the 2nd best differential of the top 50 centre bounce attendees, including midfielders (behind Corey!)

 

[Aussiemac82]

Nice work winty.

If anything, it highlights the fact that we are still a benchmark team. Brilliant individual efforts captured in numbers.

For players to be able to know exactly what part of their game to work on and how they compare with the rest of the players is great. It would have to bring out the competitive beast in you.

I hope players like Schroeder have worked on their deficiencies and show us all the improvement in a few weeks.

It would be nice to have a subscription to Champion data and be able to overlay stats into graphs.

All in all, the book is money well spent for a footy fan.

 

[Gogeelong]

Just watched Freo smash us in the final last year.

We had no answer for Pavilich
Corey kept us in it
Selwood is a star

Every team is calling their chances up.
The fact is we are ranked outside the top 4 in the betting which is a good gauge.
We need X factor, a couple of the youngsters to become AA players.

(Motlop could be one of them?)