Reading this made me think of Thurley :
Draft brings on chill factor
Jenny McAsey
November 20, 2004
"The draft has never been anything but a f***ing crapshoot," Billy Beane had taken to saying. "We take 50 guys and we celebrate if two of them make it. In what other business is two for 50 a success? If you did that in the stock market you'd go broke."
AS AFL draft day dawns and dozens of young men wait anxiously to see if their sporting dream will come true, the blunt words of Billy Beane, general manager of California's Oakland Athletics Major League baseball team, are ringing in the ears of AFL coaches and recruiters.
The story of Beane's disdain for drafting raw talent straight out of high school, and his radical move to recruit proven college-level ball players instead, is told in the 2003 book Moneyball by author Michael Lewis.
It is a bestseller in the US and rag-eared copies of the book have been passed around in AFL circles this year as coaches ponder whether today's draft, their lifeblood for the future, is all it is cracked up to be.
Beane challenged accepted scouting wisdom and his tale has inspired coaches, including Geelong's Mark Thompson, Carlton's Denis Pagan and Sydney's Paul Roos.
Roos says he was always sceptical about the value of the national draft even before he became one of the numerous coaches in the AFL to read Moneyball.
"I don't think the draft is anywhere near as good as it should be," Roos said yesterday.
The AFL draft is a pool of the best 17 and 18-year-olds in the country, but like Beane and his high school baseballers, Roos thinks they are too young, too much of an unknown quantity.
That makes it a high-risk way to build future success.
"What Billy Beane basically said was don't take high school kids because they are normally a bust, and that is exactly what we are doing in our draft. He is attacking our whole system, saying it doesn't work," Roos said.
"My view is the draft age is too young because I don't think the guys are fully developed. That is why a lot of them don't go on and play much AFL football. They don't get bigger, they don't get quicker, they don't develop the way the clubs project they will. It is just crystal-balling."
Before October's player trade period, when Sydney gave up their top pick - No.15 - in today's draft for 23-year-old second-string Melbourne ruckman Darren Jolly, Roos did his own research about the draft's success rate.
"I was a bit of a sceptic all along about the draft but when we started to really analyse it, it shocked me," he said.
Sydney's study of 13 drafts between 1989 and 2001 showed that if you had pick No.10 there was only a 40 per cent chance of him developing into what Roos classed as a "good to very good player".
Five of the 13 players taken at pick No.15 in that period have not played one game in the AFL. That made the decision to take Jolly much easier. "To be honest, we weren't giving up that much," Roos said.
Even though the hopefuls are put through a raft of tests at the draft camp, research has shown only two - reaction time and speed over 20 metres - bear any relation to the youngster's chances of being a good AFL player.
"What it does tell you is that the other stuff is garbage; that is not my view, that is what the research is telling you," Roos said.
Former Hawthorn, Carlton and Fitzroy coach, David Parkin, is worried good youngsters are being lost to the AFL system because of the current draft age.
"Exceptional young men who have the potential down the track are being lost because somebody at this crucial time in their life, at 17 or 18 when they are still physically and psychologically immature, says, no, you are not good enough," Parkin said. He suggests players should come out of the under-18 development competition and play at least a year of senior football against men before they are drafted so there would be more hard evidence of what they can achieve, rather than just potential.
"We have to develop the public perception that there are other ways, such as via the rookie draft and state-based leagues, for those who mature around 20 or 21, so they aren't lost to the system," Parkin said.
Roos said Sydney would scrutinise those leagues much more closely. "They are an untapped market," he said.
As they mull over their picks today, clubs should remember the case of Aaron Davey last year.
Originally from Darwin, he played a year in the SANFL and a year in the VFL and was named most promising player in the league.
However, he was passed over in last year's draft and only given a chance on Melbourne's rookie list.
By season's end, it was evident Melbourne had snared a gem from under the noses of other clubs as Davey came second in the national rising star award.
"How was he missed? That is the sort of stuff clubs would have been asking internally in the past 12 months. They are all looking to get the edge in a competitive environment and they have to get better at working out what makes the difference in a player," Kevin Sheehan, the AFL's national talent manager, said.
Carlton coach Pagan cites former VFL player Adrian Deluca, who was overlooked in several drafts but taken at pick No.72 last year. "He played every game for us this year. At 22 years of age, he is ready to make his name," Pagan said.
Pagan has been forced to look outside the square when drafting because the Blues lost their first and second-round picks due to salary cap breaches.
He opted to recycle players from other clubs and said he took lessons from Billy Beane's novel approach.
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Seems Thompson doesnt think much of the raww U18 kids on the whole.So , are we saying that the U18 comp should be U20?, are we saying that more emphasis should be placed on VFL,SANFL etc.?, are we saying that our resurgence has been based on freak luck? Its an interesting theory
I know thru our 90's era we topped up with player that turned out to be very good clubmen, guys like McGrath went on to play 200 plus games, I mean even Ablett snr falls into this cat..ogory.
So do we start looking at kids like a Kirkby this year or a Gaffer from a couple of years ago, after they have been in the system and let them mature into more reliable picks.Of course by letting go there own way the develop there own methods and habits(not all good) so by grabbing them young they are inducted in your clubs ways. I look at sports like gymnastic esspec. in the Baltics and the kids are started at primary school age to ensure that errors are removed before they are ingrained.
It would be a shame to remove the the type of thrill a fresh kid like Tenace or maybe Nathan A can give your club.It would be a shame to miss on 20year old guy who could play for you club for the next 10 years because he was not picked at 18. Maybe a blend of the two is not so bad.
Draft brings on chill factor
Jenny McAsey
November 20, 2004
"The draft has never been anything but a f***ing crapshoot," Billy Beane had taken to saying. "We take 50 guys and we celebrate if two of them make it. In what other business is two for 50 a success? If you did that in the stock market you'd go broke."
AS AFL draft day dawns and dozens of young men wait anxiously to see if their sporting dream will come true, the blunt words of Billy Beane, general manager of California's Oakland Athletics Major League baseball team, are ringing in the ears of AFL coaches and recruiters.
The story of Beane's disdain for drafting raw talent straight out of high school, and his radical move to recruit proven college-level ball players instead, is told in the 2003 book Moneyball by author Michael Lewis.
It is a bestseller in the US and rag-eared copies of the book have been passed around in AFL circles this year as coaches ponder whether today's draft, their lifeblood for the future, is all it is cracked up to be.
Beane challenged accepted scouting wisdom and his tale has inspired coaches, including Geelong's Mark Thompson, Carlton's Denis Pagan and Sydney's Paul Roos.
Roos says he was always sceptical about the value of the national draft even before he became one of the numerous coaches in the AFL to read Moneyball.
"I don't think the draft is anywhere near as good as it should be," Roos said yesterday.
The AFL draft is a pool of the best 17 and 18-year-olds in the country, but like Beane and his high school baseballers, Roos thinks they are too young, too much of an unknown quantity.
That makes it a high-risk way to build future success.
"What Billy Beane basically said was don't take high school kids because they are normally a bust, and that is exactly what we are doing in our draft. He is attacking our whole system, saying it doesn't work," Roos said.
"My view is the draft age is too young because I don't think the guys are fully developed. That is why a lot of them don't go on and play much AFL football. They don't get bigger, they don't get quicker, they don't develop the way the clubs project they will. It is just crystal-balling."
Before October's player trade period, when Sydney gave up their top pick - No.15 - in today's draft for 23-year-old second-string Melbourne ruckman Darren Jolly, Roos did his own research about the draft's success rate.
"I was a bit of a sceptic all along about the draft but when we started to really analyse it, it shocked me," he said.
Sydney's study of 13 drafts between 1989 and 2001 showed that if you had pick No.10 there was only a 40 per cent chance of him developing into what Roos classed as a "good to very good player".
Five of the 13 players taken at pick No.15 in that period have not played one game in the AFL. That made the decision to take Jolly much easier. "To be honest, we weren't giving up that much," Roos said.
Even though the hopefuls are put through a raft of tests at the draft camp, research has shown only two - reaction time and speed over 20 metres - bear any relation to the youngster's chances of being a good AFL player.
"What it does tell you is that the other stuff is garbage; that is not my view, that is what the research is telling you," Roos said.
Former Hawthorn, Carlton and Fitzroy coach, David Parkin, is worried good youngsters are being lost to the AFL system because of the current draft age.
"Exceptional young men who have the potential down the track are being lost because somebody at this crucial time in their life, at 17 or 18 when they are still physically and psychologically immature, says, no, you are not good enough," Parkin said. He suggests players should come out of the under-18 development competition and play at least a year of senior football against men before they are drafted so there would be more hard evidence of what they can achieve, rather than just potential.
"We have to develop the public perception that there are other ways, such as via the rookie draft and state-based leagues, for those who mature around 20 or 21, so they aren't lost to the system," Parkin said.
Roos said Sydney would scrutinise those leagues much more closely. "They are an untapped market," he said.
As they mull over their picks today, clubs should remember the case of Aaron Davey last year.
Originally from Darwin, he played a year in the SANFL and a year in the VFL and was named most promising player in the league.
However, he was passed over in last year's draft and only given a chance on Melbourne's rookie list.
By season's end, it was evident Melbourne had snared a gem from under the noses of other clubs as Davey came second in the national rising star award.
"How was he missed? That is the sort of stuff clubs would have been asking internally in the past 12 months. They are all looking to get the edge in a competitive environment and they have to get better at working out what makes the difference in a player," Kevin Sheehan, the AFL's national talent manager, said.
Carlton coach Pagan cites former VFL player Adrian Deluca, who was overlooked in several drafts but taken at pick No.72 last year. "He played every game for us this year. At 22 years of age, he is ready to make his name," Pagan said.
Pagan has been forced to look outside the square when drafting because the Blues lost their first and second-round picks due to salary cap breaches.
He opted to recycle players from other clubs and said he took lessons from Billy Beane's novel approach.
=====
Seems Thompson doesnt think much of the raww U18 kids on the whole.So , are we saying that the U18 comp should be U20?, are we saying that more emphasis should be placed on VFL,SANFL etc.?, are we saying that our resurgence has been based on freak luck? Its an interesting theory
I know thru our 90's era we topped up with player that turned out to be very good clubmen, guys like McGrath went on to play 200 plus games, I mean even Ablett snr falls into this cat..ogory.
So do we start looking at kids like a Kirkby this year or a Gaffer from a couple of years ago, after they have been in the system and let them mature into more reliable picks.Of course by letting go there own way the develop there own methods and habits(not all good) so by grabbing them young they are inducted in your clubs ways. I look at sports like gymnastic esspec. in the Baltics and the kids are started at primary school age to ensure that errors are removed before they are ingrained.
It would be a shame to remove the the type of thrill a fresh kid like Tenace or maybe Nathan A can give your club.It would be a shame to miss on 20year old guy who could play for you club for the next 10 years because he was not picked at 18. Maybe a blend of the two is not so bad.
