Preview Changes/Preview – Round 10 vs. West Coast

[Scythe94]

Correct. Interesting that we're only using 'Narrm' for the one round this year, despite wearing the Indigenous guernsey both weeks.

Scratch that, club just put out comms saying Narrm will feature this week: https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/1554173/narrm-football-club-returns-for-third-year

 

[Lord Nev]

i wouldn't be surprised if Fullarton was injured. i saw a tall player go down near the goals after an attempt at a pack mark and they stayed down for a while. i thought it was Fullarton but i couldn't be sure.

Yeah saw someone say they thought he had done his knee in that game but he came back on later - and struggled.

 

[SugarHealey]

My 2c.

Out: Billings, Turner, Petty (bar last week has been ordinary and I still don't think he's a forward).

In: McAdam, Woey, Laurie (sub)

Go for a much smaller forward line, play Trac there most of the game. Force the mids to lower their eyes and lock it in when it hits the ground. Play JVR at CHF, he looked good roaming up a bit, gets him into the game and builds confidence.

In the midfield run Rivers and ANB more. I actually felt the midfield looked the best when it was Sparrow (yes Sparrow), ANB, and Oliver in there. I'd try and avoid having Viney and Oliver together at too many centre bounces (no idea where you hide them mind you, that's the trouble with having 400 inside mids).

Backline doesn't need any tinkering. They are rock solid. Just need more support from the mids to stop teams running it out of the centre so easily.

Hi Daemon.
my changes would be -

out: Billings (Omitted), Van Rooyen (Concussion),

Ins: Hunter, Fullarton: Tholstrup (Sub)

 

[SugarHealey]

In the midfield run Rivers and ANB more. I actually felt the midfield looked the best when it was Sparrow (yes Sparrow), ANB, and Oliver in there. I'd try and avoid having Viney and Oliver together at too many centre bounces

Oliver was bog ordinary against the Blues.
Seems to be a regular thing against the blues.


Is he on someones payrole.

 

[SugarHealey]

Oh heck my life if Brown comes back in.

"Fullarton time" for mine. Backup ruck & forward.
BBB doesn't ruck, and Petty still iffy imv with his foot.

Petty and Fullarton, its time to try it.

I also would like to see Rivers flowing up forward, on occasion. Maybe even as a mobile chf.

 

[SugarHealey]

Thought Billings was good enough early but his last month has been poor. Turning it over way too much to be our 'elite foot skills' guy. We've been pretty good at blooding new guys this year, but I would love to see K.Brown, Sestan, Tholstrup and maybe even AMW get a shot. Billings is out of form, Chandler is a watch with his knee maybe needing managing, Woey and Laurie are a bit meh, just want to see us try them out.

Agree, time for Billings to cool his heals back at Casey for a few weeks.
To get his mojo back. And his kicking boots on.

 

[SugarHealey]

I think Woey has been OK, Laurie I don't think will amount to anything BUT I get they're trying to reward VFL form, because he normally dominates that level. Feel like Chandler has been a bit off for a while but I don't like to go too hard on our small forwards when we play a style that doesn't benefit them.

Were missing another "quick as the wind" small forward... :- Toby Bedford.

 

[SugarHealey]

JVR out with concussion. Does that mean we will pick Fullarton or maybe Verrall? I’m guessing Fullarton would get the nod. Although Verrall has impressed.

I sort of agree; like to see Verrall soon, If he continues good form.?

 

[SugarHealey]

Resting some older vets such as Gawn, May and Viney should be considered. Billings should definitely be in the gun considering his form. Woewodin deserves a crack at a full game. Petracca should play permanent forward and we should have a real look at guys like ANB, Rivers, Pickett, Chandler around the ball.

Therefore -
In: Salem and BBB
Out: JVR and Woewodin
Billings to sub.

A sure fire way to lose the game.

WC's midfield lately, is they're strength.

 

[SugarHealey]

It's because Goody's style has always been back half turnover averse, just ask Frost and Hunt.

For reference though, we're 8th in the comp for scoring from the defensive half. That's pretty decent given our low scoring style (We're 10th for points scored). We're 5th for score from back half differential. It's nowhere near as dramatic as the usual suspects are trying to make it out to be. Think we've also been impacted by Bowey and Salem both being out as they're often our 'designated kickers' and Rivers kicking has been a bit hot and cold.

We've really dropped off for scoring from turnovers and stoppages, that's the biggest impact. Our pressure is still up there around the ground, but our pressure inside 50 has nosedived, that's where the heat should be IMO. Forward pressure to score from turnovers is where we've dropped off, that's what the actual numbers say.

The last couple of weeks our F50 entries have been rushed, to a large extent. Mostly long high balls into F50, to a pack. We don't score so well from this sort of entry.

We don't score so freely, when the opposition defence is tightly bunched around the ball inside our F50.

 

[SugarHealey]

We're down on inside 50 tackles per inside 50, but only by a little, but we've also gone down for mark inside 50 rate, so there's more inside 50 ground balls this year.

Fritsch is one of the culprits for poor pressure stats and marks this year. He's been hot and cold for both within the same games, and won't put his body inline for coming physical pressure.

 

[SugarHealey]

No to Brown, no to Fullarton, no to Verrall, no to Schache. No to key forwards for the sake of key forwards.

Perfect opportunity to go smaller and play Trac deep forward – West Coast's rucks are Bailey Williams and some other Williams bloke who's 198cm and averages three hitouts per game. One of Turner or Petty can manage a few ruck contests.

We lack speed inside F50, to do this.

And you can bet Pickett will be flying for everything. Instead of keeping his feet on the grass.

 

[SugarHealey]

Let’s face it Goody is a defence first coach. I get it. I mean you can’t be involved in shoot outs every week these days a win a flag. The top defensive teams are usually the contenders. But he does seem to have taken it too far at times. This style will keep us in contention and we won’t experience blowouts.

You want us to become like the Doggies.?.. a front running outfit.

They are a soft unit, because they don't defend anywhere near well enough.

But we need to get some more scores on the board. He just hasn’t found that balance and always reverts back to defence if things aren’t going to plan.

Its not Goody; its the players feeling unable to take it on. That 45 angled kick into the chf corridor area.

 

[SugarHealey]

Yep, thought it was a great opportunity rest Max until JVR was ruled out. Definitely won't be happening now.

But we could play Fullarton, and give Max much more time forward with Petty.

 

[Lord Nev]

But we could play Fullarton, and give Max much more time forward with Petty.

Fullarton is quite likely injured. Appeared to hurt his knee on Friday night and then didn't take part in training today.

 

[SugarHealey]

Its interesting that Sydney are managing to be such a high scoring team despite having a pretty average forwardline on paper. Like us they have some pretty meh talls and a decent mix of smalls and medium forwards but manage to score better than anyone.

They're also 13th for tackles inside 50. Geelong and GWS are also poor in this area (all three teams are below us). Sydney also 5th for marks inside 50 while being 17th for contested marks. Where we are 15th for marks inside 50 but 3rd for contested marks.

The SCG is almost a round arena, with wide flanks & pockets, and a short goal to goal line. Perfect for a mid sized running team with mobile talls.

 

[Lord Nev]

Fritsch is one of the culprits for poor pressure stats and marks this year. He's been hot and cold for both within the same games, and won't put his body inline for coming physical pressure.

Agree on that. I have a love hate relationship with Fritsch. No one comes close in terms of ability to score for us, but some of his defensive efforts are absolutely putrid.

 

[SugarHealey]

The difference between marks inside 50 and contested marks is pretty striking imo. I know the CM stat is over the whole ground but it shows we want to keep it in contest where other teams back their guys to win it in space.

As I said Sydney are particularly interesting because their forwardline really isn't all that special. They have one player in the top 10 for goals kicked in Hayward. Plus they still manage to score heavily while also being the best defensive team in the comp as far as points against go.

The last two premiers have won with transition footy and the frontrunner this year is doing the same. Goodwin needs to get with the program.

Having both bowey and Salem out injured, has made our entries more high balls, then picking off angled entries.

Billings hasn't helped much in this area, as he seems to be well into his own shell. IMO, he needs to go back to find his confidence and desire to take things on a bit.

 

[SugarHealey]

Yeah that's what I'm saying about Sydney. Our forwardline is at worst on par with theirs. They just function better and also get goals through their midfield.

The Swannies have way more class and ability through the middle of the ground, than us. And harder runners.

 

[SugarHealey]

Tackles inside 50 is a weird stat as others have noted - you can rack up like 4-5 quick ones if you have a rolling maul with 36 players inside the forward half of the ground with repeat stoppages, which really doesn't = good pressure at all.

I'm most interested in either run down tackles or pressure that results in a turnover->chain to a goal. I feel like we are at our best when we are running players down or kozzy is flying around the forward 50 generating turnovers. Both of these are obviously harder to do if you have too many talls being waltzed around which then creates easy overlap and rebound 50s - the Ben Brown special

We have to stop opposition defenders from marking they're short kicks inside our F50.. this is where our smalls can cause opposition miss-kicks. and turnover to us.

 

[SugarHealey]

According to a trackwatcher on Demonland who spoke to a few players:

JVR will only miss the one game.
Turner likely out for 2-3 games.
McAdam will play one more Casey game before being available for senior selection.
Fullarton didn't train. Came out, spoke to trainers, went back inside.

Its only Monday big fella.

 

[SugarHealey]

starting to think matt jefferson is a myth. will he ever be afl ready?

It sounds like he is just starting to find his fit up forward, slowly coming along.?

 

[SugarHealey]

Well, there you go.

Petty, Fullarton, Tholstrup. Gawn.

 

[SugarHealey]

Fullarton is quite likely injured. Appeared to hurt his knee on Friday night and then didn't take part in training today.

Well if Fullarton is injured like this, then its probably BBB for vanRooyen.?
We can't go in too young.

 

[SugarHealey]

Agree on that. I have a love hate relationship with Fritsch. No one comes close in terms of ability to score for us, but some of his defensive efforts are absolutely putrid.

And when he hit the goal post last week, he immediately chuckled to himself, as the team struggled for intensity.
He is one selfish small forward.