Changes v Adelaide, 20/5

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Oliver G

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Anyone who is cherry picking such stats needs a good lie down and an Bex, so I really don't want to make your life any more difficult. Besides, if this is the best you can come up with to reinforce your argument then your argument must be extremely weak indeed.

Firstly, I couldn't give a Rat's how many spoils a player gets because it is a pretty low-grade stat. If you have to point to how many spoils you've made then you haven't got a lot to brag about. Secondly how convoluted are you trying to be by referencing whether something is below some 'average'. Is that a personal, positional or team average? Don't bother answering because I don't actually care, I'm just making a point about the stat.

Last week Gardner had 4 measly possessions, 3 uncontested, and at least one of his disposals was a howlingly bad turnover under zero pressure. He also gave away a free kick. At some stage I may go back and review the other three, but I don't think any of them were amazingly productively offensive in their outcome. So not exactly scintillating form, and not a great game by anyone's standards. It's also worth noting that Gardner's only other game was quite poor, with some poor defensive mistakes helping rather than hindering GWS's late charge against us the previous week. He has still yet to take a contested match at AFL level this year. .

Keath on the other hand had, 9 disposals last match, not exactly awesome but he still got his hands on the footy more than double the occasions that Ryan did. He also had more tackles (2) and clearances (1), than Ryan's 0 and 0.
You might point out that Alex had a costly turnover, which would be true, but it came when he was kicking hurriedly under strong pressure following Ryan's aforementioned unpressured mistake that he was vainly trying to clean up! Sometimes context really does matter.

The fact that the only stat Gardner fans can seemingly keep pointing to after his many years in the AFL system is his number of spoils is I believe a testament to how much the guy has struggled at the highest level. Nobody talks about how many spoils Steven May or Liam Jones have made. That's not because they don't make some great spoils occasionally, they certainly do, but more importantly they take contested marks and actually turn defence into offense.

I'm not saying that spoils are all bad, some times they are vitally important but so many spoils just end up going to the opposition anyway, so the team didn't necessarily gain from the act. As occurred for some of Ryan's spoils last week for example. Which is why I don't rate it as an important stat.

Contrary to appearances I don't actually dislike Ryan Gardner. I wish him the best this weekend as I do whenever he plays for us. The problem I have, which is associated with the poor bloke rather than being his fault, is how he keeps getting selected in front of better performed team mates, when they are still fit and available for selection.

Gardner is averaging a higher kicking/disposal efficiency, fewer clangers, fewer turnovers and more score involvements than Keath. Keath may be intercepting more but it isn't necessarily being turned into scoring opportunities. Their one-on-one numbers are pretty similar as well (less than 10% difference). As for contested marks you mention that Gardner has taken 0 in his 2 games, well Keath ain't doing much better averaging 0.5 per game and has had just 1 in the past 2 weeks.

The big difference between Gardner and Keath though is fitness, Gardner is averaging 95% time on ground to Keath's 81% which is extremely low for a key position player. Ideally KPPs especially defenders should be well over 90%.
 

Proffessor

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Gardner is averaging a higher kicking/disposal efficiency, fewer clangers, fewer turnovers and more score involvements than Keath. Keath may be intercepting more but it isn't necessarily being turned into scoring opportunities. Their one-on-one numbers are pretty similar as well (less than 10% difference.

The big difference between Gardner and Keath though is fitness, Gardner is averaging 95% time on ground to Keath's 81% which is extremely low for a key position player. Ideally KPPs especially defenders should be well over 90%.

Ah' the beauty of small numbers.

Just marginally higher efficiencies, a couple of percentage points, and based on small numbers, means such a difference could be changed by a statisticians call on a single contest\disposal. BTW Liam Jones has a slightly lower disposal efficiency than both of them, should he be dropped?

So many stats also lack important context. You consider Gardner's High TOG % as a positive but considering he gets so little of the ball could it also be considered a negative? How does a guy spend so much time on the ground and not touch the ball more? Is Keath's TOG stat impacted by him getting hurt a few times and/or potentially because he worked himself to exhaustion a little more often?

Keath is still averaging ~30% more effective disposals and ~245% more intercepts per game than Gardner, yet he has been dropped.

It's a familiar story though. Zaine Cordy was well ahead of Gardner in most statistical categories over an extended period of time but was still displaced to accommodate his lesser performing team mate. History has an annoying habit of repeating.
 
Ah' the beauty of small numbers.

Just marginally higher efficiencies, a couple of percentage points, and based on small numbers, means such a difference could be changed by a statisticians call on a single contest\disposal. BTW Liam Jones has a slightly lower disposal efficiency than both of them, should he be dropped?

So many stats also lack important context. You consider Gardner's High TOG % as a positive but considering he gets so little of the ball could it also be considered a negative? How does a guy spend so much time on the ground and not touch the ball more? Is Keath's TOG stat impacted by him getting hurt a few times and/or potentially because he worked himself to exhaustion a little more often?

Keath is still averaging ~30% more effective disposals and ~245% more intercepts per game than Gardner, yet he has been dropped.

It's a familiar story though. Zaine Cordy was well ahead of Gardner in most statistical categories over an extended period of time but was still displaced to accommodate his lesser performing team mate. History has an annoying habit of repeating.
Keath also directly set up a goal if I’m not mistaken?
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Enlighten us - do please share his GPS stats from training that you must have access too.

Buku Khamis, the only player that can’t run out a game yet only impacts in junk time according to dogs fans 😂
It’s running a whole game in the AFL. Not sure if you are aware but VFL is about 3 qtrs of the pace of AFL which is why Maclean can pick up 40 plus touches in VFL and look slower than me in the AFL.
 

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Ah' the beauty of small numbers.

Just marginally higher efficiencies, a couple of percentage points, and based on small numbers, means such a difference could be changed by a statisticians call on a single contest\disposal. BTW Liam Jones has a slightly lower disposal efficiency than both of them, should he be dropped?

So many stats also lack important context. You consider Gardner's High TOG % as a positive but considering he gets so little of the ball could it also be considered a negative? How does a guy spend so much time on the ground and not touch the ball more? Is Keath's TOG stat impacted by him getting hurt a few times and/or potentially because he worked himself to exhaustion a little more often?

Keath is still averaging ~30% more effective disposals and ~245% more intercepts per game than Gardner, yet he has been dropped.

It's a familiar story though. Zaine Cordy was well ahead of Gardner in most statistical categories over an extended period of time but was still displaced to accommodate his lesser performing team mate. History has an annoying habit of repeating.
The difference between Keath and Gardiner is pretty slim in my book, Keath has the higher ceiling but has been in pretty bad form. But you lost me at Zaine Cordy, Gardiner is 10 times the defender Cordy was for us, I think Cordy lost something like 55% (don't quote me) of 1v1 contests?
 

doggies ftw

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It’s running a whole game in the AFL. Not sure if you are aware but VFL is about 3 qtrs of the pace of AFL which is why Maclean can pick up 40 plus touches in VFL and look slower than me in the AFL.
You do realise his last run at AFL level he was avging 85% TOG which was also a year ago, including a preseason.

Stop making up bullshit, how would you know he can’t run out a game at AFL level
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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You do realise his last run at AFL level he was avging 85% TOG which was also a year ago, including a preseason.

Stop making up bullshit, how would you know he can’t run out a game at AFL level
LOL I’m telling you that is the reason he is not playing

You are entitled to your opinion no matter how wrong it is
 

doggies ftw

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LOL I’m telling you that is the reason he is not playing

You are entitled to your opinion no matter how wrong it is
What’s my opinion? I didn’t make one I’m telling you factually across his 3 games in the 2nd half of the season he avged 85% TOG. He’s a young player who is building his tank, not that far fetched to suggested it’s probably improved since.

You’re the one who constantly flings bullshit you literally cannot back up - why are you talking in absolutes like you have some sort of inside knowledge of his GPS data lmao, muppet
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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If his tank really hasn’t improved by much, I have no idea if true or not, we need to think about cutting him. Doesn’t seem any point persevering with him as much as I like his skill set.
It can take some players longer than others. Liam Jones is a case in point. Didn’t say it hasn’t improved but it’s not where it needs to be for the AFL . It will get him through many games with his talent but it’s abo what he can do consistently week in week out
 

St 07

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Keith has been a bit off for much of the year. He's really looking to impact with rebound running but I don't think it's a stable tool in his belt at this stage. Gardner played a strong game and was more influential than Keith last week. O'Brien is rewarded for form. Simple as that and it's the right decision. With our half backs we can afford to carry strong but simplistic defenders.
 
The role being played is as the intercept defender. We should not be comparing Keath to Gards. We will need to compare Keath to TOB. Imho
What is this 'imho'
Zis is BigFooty vee don't 'imho' here!!

1684537049996.jpeg
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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He’s been our leading goal scorer at VFL bar Schache for last two years despite being tasked with playing as the lone forward half the time and back up ruck. He’s had good games at AFL level from limited opportunties, he was the best performed forward all preseason outside the big 3.

What form does JOD have? Literally zero game time in a forward line at any level.

Hence all our talls had good separation? Lmao what game were you watching - there was a lot of positives last week, separation between our talls was certainly not one of them.

Yes he had good form in defence, it was arrogant to play him off 3 VFL games in defence as a forward at AFL level - it nearly cost us. We’re not doing him any favours, let him play half a season at VFL level in the fwd line if that’s the position we see him playing.
Your first sentence said it all
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Curious, why do people keep saying that playing JOD almost cost us the game? Last time I checked, he was playing when we raced out to a 4 goal lead, though his impact was minimal. His rate of getting the ball per minute is on par with the other forwards who played the whole game. And all of his possessions were actually contested, was close to getting a goal as well.

And then he sat on the bench for almost the entirety of the 3rd Q, before being subbed, where we pissed away our lead. Find it weird blaming a guy not on the field for the way the rest of the team played in the shitty early part of the third, to late in the 4th quarter.

And then some giving the vibe that the sub helped us win the game. When McNeil came on the field, Bevo only used him for roughly 12 minutes of game time and he did not get a single possession. McNeil didn't help us win it either.

No issue with people questioning playing him forward. Or questioning bringing him in the team. Or if there was other players in the VFL more worthy. All are good discussions. But don't think its fair at all blaming us almost losing the game for someone who was not even on the field. We almost lost because we got beat at the clearances, English had his pants pulled down all game, we couldn't move the ball from defence to forward 50 at times, and we butchered our repeated inside 50s that created nothing. Standard issue that have flared up for us at times all season in most games (minus English). That is why we almost lost.

In fact, if it wasn't for Carlton butchering shots at goal, and our sturdy back line holding up when under siege. We'd have been 20 points down at some point and walked away with a loss.
It’s just the typical lazy analysis designed to support whatever hobby horse they are riding
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Something tells me you haven't actually watched them play.

Outside of Collingwood the most exciting, high intensity team in the comp.

Naturally, as a young side they don't travel away from home well yet - which should gives us the edge on Saturday.

I can see Adelaide playing in a GF/ Prelim in the next 18months.
I can see them continue to be flat track bullies
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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It wasn’t his fault but I’ve never seen a player look as lost in the forward line as O’Donnell did last week. It was nothing but a gut feel selection that Beveridge has a bad habit of making. There’s a mountain of evidence over Beveridge’s time that playing games with positions doesn’t work. I don’t think there’s any clear cut players putting there hands up, but having some who can at least play a role should be the minimum.


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Sweet
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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I respectfully disagree, Lachy.

Preferential selection treatment for underperforming players can cause untold damage at any club and it has been a festering problem for us for a long time.
It erodes trust, and trust is the bedrock that premierships are built on.
LOL some funniest s**t on here
 

Bulldogs Legend

Norm Smith Medallist
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What’s my opinion? I didn’t make one I’m telling you factually across his 3 games in the 2nd half of the season he avged 85% TOG. He’s a young player who is building his tank, not that far fetched to suggested it’s probably improved since.

You’re the one who constantly flings bullshit you literally cannot back up - why are you talking in absolutes like you have some sort of inside knowledge of his GPS data lmao, muppet
LOL you really are a sensitive soul
I don’t need GPS data mate I can actually see
 

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