Chapman Talking Finals

[The White Tiger]

Chapman says 11 wins and a good percentage should see Geelong make the finals (Herald Sun). Would be a great acheivment in itself, but my maths says 12 wins will be needed to make the eight this year.Good luck Cats hope you make it at the expense of Sydney or the Pies. EAT EM ALIVE TIGERS!

 

[chapmanmagic35]

Our solid % will definetly help...the positive thing is that destiny is in our own hands.

 

[The White Tiger]

Our solid % will definetly help...the positive thing is that destiny is in our own hands.

True, if you have to rely on sides above you getting beaten you dont belong in the finals.

 

[Micksy]

Chapman says 11 wins and a good percentage should see Geelong make the finals (Herald Sun). Would be a great acheivment in itself, but my maths says 12 wins will be needed to make the eight this year.Good luck Cats hope you make it at the expense of Sydney or the Pies. EAT EM ALIVE TIGERS!

Maybe if the top 7 teams collect 20+ wins each and the other 9 teams all have an even year you could get in with 10. (Or less) Anyone seen the maths on this?

All I know is that if you get 12 wins it's supposed to be impossible to miss finals.

 

[catempire]

Maybe if the top 7 teams collect 20+ wins each and the other 9 teams all have an even year you could get in with 10. (Or less) Anyone seen the maths on this?

All I know is that if you get 12 wins it's supposed to be impossible to miss finals.

Only once (1997?) has 13 wins been required.

 

[Reg Hickey]

Only once (1997?) has 13 wins been required.

Made it with less than 12 wins:
- Brisbane (10) in 1995, and interestingly a really crap percentage of about 94
- Hawthorn (11 and a draw) in 1996
- Brisbane (10 and a draw) in 1997
- Sydney (11) in 1999
- West Coast (11) in 2002, and again a really crap percentage of about 96

Only two teams have failed to make it with 12 wins:
- Richmond in 1998, but on percentage, so even then 13 wins wasn't required (just 12 and a decent percentage)
- Hawthorn in 2003, which was the only year that 13 wins was required (Essendon finished 8th with 13)

Based on this, and assuming our percentage is still good at the end of the year (no more Crows/Pies beltings), our thinking should be that 12 wins will pretty much guarantee us a spot, and 11 will give us a close to 50% chance.

 

[catempire]

Ah, I was way off. It was 2003 where Essendon finished 8th with 13 wins. West Coast finished 7th with 12 wins and 2 draws while Hawthorn missed out finishing 9th with 12 wins.

 

[Unwritten_Law]

I think only Richmond have a worse percentage in the 8 don't they? And they still get to play Hawthorn, Essendon and Carlton I think.

 

[Catnip]

We need 6, Richmond need 5 so we need that squared away by the end of Round 15. If they beat Melbourne we are in deep diggery do regardless of whether we beat Port.

The Tiger win at AAMI was not a good result for us

 

[Shell]

We need 6, Richmond need 5 so we need that squared away by the end of Round 15. If they beat Melbourne we are in deep diggery do regardless of whether we beat Port.

The Tiger win at AAMI was not a good result for us

Dont worry Catnipper, Richmond will find some way of finishing ninth!

 

[catempire]

Richmond's isn't the only spot in the 8 up for grabs. As has been mentioned in the thread already, it's likely it will take 12 wins to make it. Only Adelaide already has the requisite 12 wins. While it would be unlikely for West Coast (11 wins), Melbourne (10 wins), or even Collingwood or the Bulldogs (9 wins each) to miss, it is still possible. The remaining 3 inside the 8 each have 8 wins so would each have to win at least 4 more. Sydney are looking a little shakey. St Kilda, while they have improved, still have a way to go.

Geelong has the benefit of playing 4 of the top 8 teams in the run home. The benefit is that if you win, you deny 4 points to a team in the top 8 - in effect an 8 point game.

 

[sarbbo]

Only once (1997?) has 13 wins been required.

That gives me a bit of comfort.

 

[Sir Gusset]

Althought 8th spot isn't the only one up for grabs you'd have to say that if geelong are going to get into the 8 they are only just going to sneak in and most likely at the expense of the Tigers.

The tigers have a shocking run over the next 4 weeks which could hopefully see their wheels come off.

Melb / Sydney (SCG) / St. Kilda / Dogs.

Given the games remaining and using the ladder predictor I've come up with this final 8. I've factored 2 losses into the equasion for Geelong and 4 losses to Richmond, I've also been pretty tough on Freo and Port. This has also been setup using basically the same percentage rates as it currently stands.

 

[Unwritten_Law]

Sydney and St Kilda will win enough games.

Richmond is the only team we have a chance to replace.

 

[Catnip]

Richmond's isn't the only spot in the 8 up for grabs. As has been mentioned in the thread already, it's likely it will take 12 wins to make it. Only Adelaide already has the requisite 12 wins. While it would be unlikely for West Coast (11 wins), Melbourne (10 wins), or even Collingwood or the Bulldogs (9 wins each) to miss, it is still possible. The remaining 3 inside the 8 each have 8 wins so would each have to win at least 4 more. Sydney are looking a little shakey. St Kilda, while they have improved, still have a way to go.

Geelong has the benefit of playing 4 of the top 8 teams in the run home. The benefit is that if you win, you deny 4 points to a team in the top 8 - in effect an 8 point game.

And if we don't win them, then we don't deserve to be in the 8 anyhows but I think all but Richmond are safe.

 

[catempire]

Sydney and St Kilda will win enough games.

Richmond is the only team we have a chance to replace.

Nope, refer earlier post. We can replace just about anyone but Adelaide.

Last season, after being 4th with 9 wins after round 14, Melbourne only won 3 of the last 8 to finish 7th with 12 wins.

Richmond and Brisbane each only won 2 of the last 8 after being 7th and 8th respectively after round 14.

It does happen. Ladder predictions with 64 matches left to go are fraught with danger. You cannot say with any certainty that the teams other than Adelaide are safe.

 

[Unwritten_Law]

Melbourne and Richmond have a habit of sliding away at the business end of the season.

St Kilda and Sydney have looked shakey the last couple of years, got their act together and stormed into the finals. They won't miss.

We won't win all of our games so making 3 games and percentage on Collingwood and the Bulldogs is practically impossible.

 

[Unwritten_Law]

Having a look at last year's round 14 ladder St Kilda were only behind Brisbane on percentage and Port a further two points back, not the eight that Geelong are currently.

 

[catempire]

Having a look at last year's round 14 ladder St Kilda were only behind Brisbane on percentage and Port a further two points back, not the eight that Geelong are currently.

It was irrelevant though because they took destiny into their own hands by winning 7 of the last 8.

 

[CF]

the odds are against us. But it is going to be an interesting run home. As said we play 4 of the top 8 sides in the run home. If we can beat them then we deserve to be there, if we can't then this year has all been for shi-te and we are not as good as we think we are.

 

[Ricketts]

Geelong has the benefit of playing 4 of the top 8 teams in the run home. The benefit is that if you win, you deny 4 points to a team in the top 8 - in effect an 8 point game.

Yes but that's irrelevant if, like you say, Richmond's spot in the 8 is the only one up for grabs.

 

[Unwritten_Law]

He's not saying that, I am

Our problem in that regard is that we have beaten one top 8 team all season.

 

[catempire]

Yes, bottom line - if we beat at least 2 of, the Bulldogs, Sydney, St Kilda and Melbourne we probably deserve to make it. If we don't, we don't deserve it.

 

[chapmanmagic35]

Sydney and St Kilda will win enough games.

Richmond is the only team we have a chance to replace.

Agreed...

 

[chapmanmagic35]

Yes, bottom line - if we beat at least 2 of, the Bulldogs, Sydney, St Kilda and Melbourne we probably deserve to make it. If we don't, we don't deserve it.

Yep, sounds about right. Destiny is in our own hands thankfully...

Swans and Dees are at SS.