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OK! OK!daytripper, is that you?
...once a month..
..sometimes
(I'm of English stock, y'know!)
And it always gets you a seat, even in peak hour.
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OK! OK!daytripper, is that you?
You mean models like these?
The idea that Australia is leading the world on climate change is quickly becoming untrue.
Australia will have to increase its greenhouse gas reduction target from the current 5 per cent by 2020, to at least 15 per cent within two years under the policies of both the ALP and the Coalition.
That's because the conditions for doing that look like being met. Remember… the Government's reduction target is 5 per cent below 2000 levels unilateral and 15 per cent if "major developing economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia's".
The Opposition has signed up to both the 5 per cent and 15 per cent targets, although it hasn't mentioned the second one for a while.
It's clear that science is beginning to reassert itself on this subject after a few years on the sidelines following the debacle in Copenhagen in 2009.
Current advanced country pledges already suggest a 10-20 per cent reduction from 1990 levels by 2020. China has imposed quotas on carbon emissions and is likely to have an emissions trading scheme in place by 2015; it already has them in nine provinces. The action being taken by other developing countries is already sufficient for a 15 per cent reduction in Australia.
The idea that Australia is leading the world on climate change is quickly becoming untrue. Moreover the delays caused by the 2009/10 political convulsions, which saw both the opposition leader and the prime minister sacked over climate change, will mean Australia ends up paying a much higher price than it would have.
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Climate change is inevitable. Not global warming or cooling or any other catch phrase spouted by the masses. Just climate change. It is inevitable. Are we causing it? No. Are we contributing to it changing marginally quicker than it ultimately would have? Probably, but not significantly.
The question nobody seems in agreement about is, how much has that small percentage upset the balance?
No doubt?
What is that supposed to mean? It's very much in agreement.
Regardless of how small the percentage is, the fact of the matter is that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are now nearly 1/3 higher than they have been at any point in at least 800,000,000 years and most likely the last 7 million years.
The carbon cycle is large, no doubt about it, but we have a VERY good idea of how much of the total carbon budget is absorbed by the biosphere. And of that small percentage that human activity produces about HALF of that is also absorbed by the biosphere. But it is the OTHER half of that small percent that isn't being absorbed and is accumulating in the atmosphere. There is NO disagreement on this fundamental point among the scientific community. It is eminently quantifiable.
CO2 is accumulating, that is beyond debate, concentrations are higher now than at any point in the last 800,000 years. This is a fact. It is not contested by even the "sceptical" climate scientists. That CO2 has a particular chemical signature - because it is put into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels it is much older than the CO2 being circulated on an annual basis the rate of isotopic decay is very distinct - there is NO question that CO2 from human sources is what is accumulating.
I know the denier machine has been very successful in promoting this false idea that there is debate within the science community and I would even go as so far as to say that there are a very small minority of climate scientists who DO question elements of the mainstream consensus. But they contest the scope of the problem and whether the planet is as sensitive to CO2 as most scientists think. NO ONE questions the basic mechanics. They are quantifiable and undeniable facts.
It was the switch of terminology from 'global warming' to 'climate change', when observations didn't fit alarmist forecasts, that caused me to question the facts.
That phrasing change was recommended by Republican Party strategist Frank Luntz for the Bush administration. The idea was that if it didn't sound as scary, people wouldn't push as hard to do something about it.
You're far better versed in the science than I am. But I maintain there is no agreement on even the simple question of whether the earth is warming, e.g.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html
It was the switch of terminology from 'global warming' to 'climate change', when observations didn't fit alarmist forecasts, that caused me to question the facts.
Having said that, whilst I remain a skeptic, I can and do take on board opinions from the other side of the debate. Just not when they're presented like National Geographic's doco The Final Prophecy. If I'd had a brick handy while watching that dross...
You're far better versed in the science than I am. But I maintain there is no agreement on even the simple question of whether the earth is warming, e.g.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html
It was the switch of terminology from 'global warming' to 'climate change', when observations didn't fit alarmist forecasts, that caused me to question the facts.
Having said that, whilst I remain a skeptic, I can and do take on board opinions from the other side of the debate. Just not when they're presented like National Geographic's doco The Final Prophecy. If I'd had a brick handy while watching that dross...
There can be no doubt that the man-made proportion of total greenhouse emissions is very low. T
Doesn't it even strike you as odd that the alarmists are usually government funded scientists - those with something to lose.
the mythical 'Y2K bug'.
\But try telling any of this to a left-lenaing militant wrming ABC loving alarmist like Upton Sinclair.
I'll take your word for it. But why would the activists have changed horses unless there was no warming trend?
Hi Dan,
Good to see you again. Are you finally going to start answering all the points you have been called out on and have studiously been avoiding answering? I look forward to your reply
- Evidence that the IPCC only ever predicted a 1.1 C. temperature rise for a doubling of Co2 and evidence that it has since been "revised down"
- Evidence that the MWP was "three degrees warmer than today".
- Acknowledge that Co2 doesn't "trap light", rather absorbs and reemits longwave IR
- That the logarithmic relationship between Co2 and temperature is well recognised.
- That the planet has "cooled" since 2001.
- Cite the "something" that supposedly explains the current warming.
- Cite the "recent science" that shows that lag/lead issue is not driven by CO2 and that amplification doesn't exist or that the Milankovitch Cycle is not "proof of anything".
- Acknowledge the fact that models HAVE accurately predicted current conditions, or provide the evidence that contradicts what you were provided on Page 4.
- Source the graphs cited on Page 4.
- Cite the peer reviewed research being conducted by your army of THOUSANDS of supposed "independent" but anonymous climate scientists.
- Acknowldge that your "lab test" arguments about CO2 are hopelesly flawed, or provide evidence to the contrary.
- Acknowledge that the most recent research (funded by the fossil fuel industry and headed by the great denier darling, Prf Muller, nonetheless!) actually shows that your sacred UHI is in fact complete bunkum and has no effect whatsoever on global temperature trends and that you are clinging to it like a religious fanatic clings to dogmatic beliefs.
- Outline a cheaper mechanism for reaching the bipartisan policy of a 5% reduction in Australian emissions by 2020.
- Acknowledge that your argument that a carbon tax won't effect global temperatures is an abysmal straw man argument that no one on this "side" has ever made.
- Cite your claim that CO2 has increased plant growth by 15% over the last century.
- Provide evidence that actually contradicts the evidence showing that increased Co2 has reduced plant productivity.
- Cite evidence that cloud cover "accounts for 60%" of the greenhouse effect.
- Acknowledge that you lied and tried to pretend that amplification was recently invented to account for the lag/lead issue.
- Acknowledge that you plagiarised text from Joanne Nova's blog and tried to pass it off as your own so you could pretend to read technical papers and try to give yourself an aura of expertise?
- Acknowledge that not only do you not read technical papers, that you would have trouble knowing which way up to hold a technical paper
- Acknowledge that humans are not adapted to survive in the conditions last seen in the Jurassic.
Start answering them and we might have something approaching a "debate". until then I will continue to call you out for the lying fraud that you really are![]()
And a great little earner it was too.
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Dan, running away from the debate he demanded. Just answer the questions Dan. You've been pinned down numerous times and just run away every time. Now you're posting Monckton videos?