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Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

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This is an interesting comparison and definitely what Collingwood need to stay competitive. It was actually 12 played in the 2022 GF with 11 new. The breakdown for Geelong is:

3 already on their list (Holmes, Dempsey and Neale).
3 young draftees (O'Sullivan, Humphries and Clark)
4 ultra cheap mature recruits (Mannagh, Mullin, Martin and Bowes)
1 gun recruit (Smith)

If you're good enough you can pick up a bunch of solid contributors in cheap ways and you can definitely get a gun recruit or two.

Are there players of the quality of Holmes, Dempsey and Neale already on Collingwood's list though? I guess time will tell.
There is a 0% chance they have their Holmes and Dempsey equivalents. Their young KPF West could be their Neale.

They'll be doing well to land a young CHB and back flanker/wingman who become best 23 before some of their crucial older core are gone. They don't have a great draft hand so that may be a 2026 draft job.

Other clubs aren't quite as savvy at Geelong with the mature age recruit thing I.e finding Stewart, Menegola, Mannagh, Mullin. They can trade in players like Martin and Bowes, which they've sort of done with Membrey and Perryman.

A gun midfielder to join Daicos is absolutely required. A bigger body. Can they land Petracca? Who else is there? How much will it cost?

Their forward line is getting a bit old and creaky. The Hill situation is troubling. If Elliot leaves or declines it's a disaster. Can they find some more weaponry over the next couple of years?
 
You realise turning over half a list in 4 seasons is a completely normal thing to do right? If your best 22 looks the same as it does 4 years ago then it's pretty clear you haven't improved.

Look at Geelong's 2022 premiership team and only 11 players are the same as their 2025 prelim side. They've turned over half their best 22 in 3 seasons and still remain very much in contention.

Our 2023 premiership team had only 9 players from the 2018 grand final team. We effectively retired/turned over older players like Grundy, Treloar, Adams, Varcoe, Greenwood, Mayne, Goldsack, Josh Thomas etc with no issues.

Just counting the number of players over whatever arbitrary age in a team is such lazy analysis. It doesn't take into account which older players are just role players that are easily replaced vs genuine matchwinners that the team still relies on. For us this year, it's really only Elliott that will be difficult to replace in the next 2 years from a match contribution perspective. Of course we will always miss Pendles' onfield coaching, but that's a feature not a bug of his old age.
pendlebury, sidebottom and howe are still 3 of your most important players. You've been lost without howe besides the Adelaide game and we all know that game was fools gold.
Good thing you've hung onto pendlebury, sidebottom, howe and membury for another year so you can have another crack at it. And I think you're a decent chance as long as every other team gets worse next year.
 
There is a 0% chance they have their Holmes and Dempsey equivalents. Their young KPF West could be their Neale.

They'll be doing well to land a young CHB and back flanker/wingman who become best 23 before some of their crucial older core are gone. They don't have a great draft hand so that may be a 2026 draft job.

Other clubs aren't quite as savvy at Geelong with the mature age recruit thing I.e finding Stewart, Menegola, Mannagh, Mullin. They can trade in players like Martin and Bowes, which they've sort of done with Membrey and Perryman.

A gun midfielder to join Daicos is absolutely required. A bigger body. Can they land Petracca? Who else is there? How much will it cost?

Their forward line is getting a bit old and creaky. The Hill situation is troubling. If Elliot leaves or declines it's a disaster. Can they find some more weaponry over the next couple of years?

When Geelong won the flag in 2022 their coaches votes were (with ages annotated):

76: Cameron (29)
60: Blicavs (31)
48: C Guthrie (29)
35: Stewart (29)
31: Dangerfield (32)
26: Hawkins (33), Atkins (26)
22: Smith (33), Duncan (30)
21: Tuohy (32), De Koning (21), Stengle (23)
20: Selwood (33)
15: Parfitt (23)
13: Close (23)
10: Holmes (19)
3: Z Guthrie (23)
1: Stanley (31), Ceglar (31), Rohan (30), Menegola (30), Miers (23)
Also (10+ games without coaches votes): Kolodjashnij (26), Bews (28), O'Connor (25), Henry (23), Dahlhaus (29)

Clearly most of the load from older players, with literally only Atkins between 23 and 29, and then the younger good performers being De Koning, Parfitt, Close, Holmes, Z Guthrie, Miers. Amazing how empty that middle band is - obviously in hindsight we know Kolo, O'Connor, Henry turned out well but they didn't perform well enough that year to get coaches votes.


Here's the same list for Collingwood this year:

96: N Daicos (22)
55: J Daicos (26)
48: Sidebottom (34)
42: Cameron (29)
39: Elliott (32)
21: Long (22)
19: Howe (34)
17: Pendlebury (37)
12: Schultz (27), Moore (29)
11: Mihocek (32)
9: Houston (27), Crisp (31)
8: De Goey (29), Quaynor (25)
7: Lipinski (26), McStay (29)
6: Perryman (26)
2: Mitchell (31), Frampton (28), McCreery (24)
1: Maynard (28), Hill (25), Membrey (30)
Also: Hoskin-Elliott (31), Sullivan (27), Allan (20), Cox (34)


I'd say the core is much more fleshed out than it was for Geelong. They obviously build around Daicos, Daicos, Long, Schultz, Houston, Quaynor, Lipinski, Perryman, Frampton, McCreery, Hill, Maynard - that's 12 of varying quality from A+ down, but with a bit of room for growth still.

Yes, they definitely don't seem to have a Holmes, who got 10 coaches votes at 19 years old which leaves him in pretty rare company. But they have a 22 year old A grader who consistently performs week in week out (even though people talk him down).

I'd also note that 30 isn't as old as it once was. Next year at just 30 are Cameron, Moore, De Goey, McStay, and with a bit of luck all of them could play 2-5 more years.


Yes, they could get a couple of bad long-term injuries next year and really drop off, without Naicos that midfield doesn't look super damaging.

But personally I can't see their list as completely ****ed, they'll just need a few things to go right.

But yeah that's different to a club like Brisbane who have W Ashcroft, Fletcher, Morris, Wilmot all performing really well at 21 or under, and another early pick coming, with Neale and Zorko their only important players who are seriously old. Seem perfectly set up for a dynasty.
 

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Nice attempt at a bait-and-switch there.

Clearly, I'm not talking about Collingwood needing to change half of its best 22.

I'm talking about just under half of Collingwood's entire senior list being on the verge of retirement, which is a very different proposition.

That's assuming none of Collingwood's players who are under 27 leave or are traded.

As it stands, Collingwood has picks 34, 52, 64, and 70. So not a great draft hand there.

And with Tasmania coming in, there's likely to be some heavily compromised drafts in the coming years.

Collingwood doesn't have a great deal of trade currency unless it trades out its under 27 players. But that's likely to trade ond under 27 player for another (or a pick), which doesn't solve your problem.

Along with a list that's very top-heavy age wise, Collingwood also lacks players in the 23 to 26 age group.

Just two 26 year olds (Josh Daicos and Perryman). Just two 25 year olds (Quaynor and Hill). Just two 24 year olds (McCreery and Dean). Just three 23 year olds (McCrae, Parker, and Steele).

In other words, it's a list that skews old, with a lot of young players, and not a lot in the middle.

Let's take a look at how old Collingwood's 27-and-over squad from 2025 will be in 3 years:

Scott Pendlebury 40
Jeremy Howe 38
Steele Sidebottom 37
Mason Cox 37
Jamie Elliott 36
Brody Mihocek 35
Tom Mitchell 35
Will Hoskin-Elliott 35
Jack Crisp 34
Tim Membrey 34
Daniel McStay 33
Darcy Cameron 33
Darcy Moore 32
Jordan De Goey 32
Oleg Markov 32
Brayden Maynard 32
Billy Frampton 31
Dan Houston 31
Lachie Sullivan 30
Ash Johnson 30
Lachlan Schultz 30
Patrick Lipinski 30

Again, I suspect many, and probably most, of those players won't be around in three years.

So either Collingwood's going to need to bring in nearly 20 players through free agency over the next three years.

Or.

You'll need to try to rebuild through the draft.
lol bait and switch when you're listing the ages of players that are getting delisted/retiring this year like WHE, Mitchell, Johnson, Markov in 3 years time? How is that relevant?

Turning over 50% of the list in 3 years is completely normal. What kind of list turnover do young teams like North and Essendon have? I can guarantee you it's more than us. The difference is that they have to continually delist spuds whilst there's less room for list cloggers on our list as we have a long list of proven veterans that's contributing till mid 30s.

3 years is an eternity in the AFL. We won the flag in 2010 as one of the youngest sides. What good did that do us and how did our list look 3 years later? How many flags did the baby bombers win? Having an old list because you can keep your best players contributing for longer is actually a competitive advantage.

We traded Grundy, Treloar and Adams for SFA. Yet in the last 3 years we've added 8 best 22 players in Houston, Perryman, Membrey, Schultz, Hill, McStay, Frampton, Ned Long for the cost of a pick 14 last year, a pick in the mid 20s this year, a pick in the late 30s and other meaningless picks.

That's turning over more than one third of our best 22 for basically the equivalent of 2 late first rounders. We will have no problems continuing to improve our list with the assets we have at our disposal.
 
When Geelong won the flag in 2022 their coaches votes were (with ages annotated):

76: Cameron (29)
60: Blicavs (31)
48: C Guthrie (29)
35: Stewart (29)
31: Dangerfield (32)
26: Hawkins (33), Atkins (26)
22: Smith (33), Duncan (30)
21: Tuohy (32), De Koning (21), Stengle (23)
20: Selwood (33)
15: Parfitt (23)
13: Close (23)
10: Holmes (19)
3: Z Guthrie (23)
1: Stanley (31), Ceglar (31), Rohan (30), Menegola (30), Miers (23)
Also (10+ games without coaches votes): Kolodjashnij (26), Bews (28), O'Connor (25), Henry (23), Dahlhaus (29)

Clearly most of the load from older players, with literally only Atkins between 23 and 29, and then the younger good performers being De Koning, Parfitt, Close, Holmes, Z Guthrie, Miers. Amazing how empty that middle band is - obviously in hindsight we know Kolo, O'Connor, Henry turned out well but they didn't perform well enough that year to get coaches votes.


Here's the same list for Collingwood this year:

96: N Daicos (22)
55: J Daicos (26)
48: Sidebottom (34)
42: Cameron (29)
39: Elliott (32)
21: Long (22)
19: Howe (34)
17: Pendlebury (37)
12: Schultz (27), Moore (29)
11: Mihocek (32)
9: Houston (27), Crisp (31)
8: De Goey (29), Quaynor (25)
7: Lipinski (26), McStay (29)
6: Perryman (26)
2: Mitchell (31), Frampton (28), McCreery (24)
1: Maynard (28), Hill (25), Membrey (30)
Also: Hoskin-Elliott (31), Sullivan (27), Allan (20), Cox (34)


I'd say the core is much more fleshed out than it was for Geelong. They obviously build around Daicos, Daicos, Long, Schultz, Houston, Quaynor, Lipinski, Perryman, Frampton, McCreery, Hill, Maynard - that's 12 of varying quality from A+ down, but with a bit of room for growth still.

Yes, they definitely don't seem to have a Holmes, who got 10 coaches votes at 19 years old which leaves him in pretty rare company. But they have a 22 year old A grader who consistently performs week in week out (even though people talk him down).

I'd also note that 30 isn't as old as it once was. Next year at just 30 are Cameron, Moore, De Goey, McStay, and with a bit of luck all of them could play 2-5 more years.


Yes, they could get a couple of bad long-term injuries next year and really drop off, without Naicos that midfield doesn't look super damaging.

But personally I can't see their list as completely ****ed, they'll just need a few things to go right.

But yeah that's different to a club like Brisbane who have W Ashcroft, Fletcher, Morris, Wilmot all performing really well at 21 or under, and another early pick coming, with Neale and Zorko their only important players who are seriously old. Seem perfectly set up for a dynasty.
Nobody has said the 2022 Geelong side wasn't carried by mature players though. It was very much like Collingwood the year after. Well, the Pies are now 2 years after their oldies carried them to a flag. Geelong are 3 years past that. I'm not sure Collingwood's retooling on the run looks to have them in a similar position to Geelong next year.

It actually makes more sense to run your coaches votes comparison of Geelong vs Collingwood 2025. In 2022-2023 our lists, best 23 and age profile of strong contributors were in a similar position. They simply aren't anymore.

The Cats have had half of that flag team retired or no longer best 23. Replaced by 20-27 year olds mostly. Without busts like Houston and Perryman.

The Pies aren't tracking to achieve the same feat.
 
Nobody has said the 2022 Geelong side wasn't carried by mature players though. It was very much like Collingwood the year after. Well, the Pies are now 2 years after their oldies carried them to a flag. Geelong are 3 years past that. I'm not sure Collingwood's retooling on the run looks to have them in a similar position to Geelong next year.

It actually makes more sense to run your coaches votes comparison of Geelong vs Collingwood 2025. In 2022-2023 our lists, best 23 and age profile of strong contributors were in a similar position. They simply aren't anymore.

The Cats have had half of that flag team retired or no longer best 23. Replaced by 20-27 year olds mostly. Without busts like Houston and Perryman.

The Pies aren't tracking to achieve the same feat.
Without busts like Houston and Perryman? I guess those first rounders and salary cap spent on Tanner Bruhn, Oli Henry, Bowes and Jye Clark really helped you retire that flag team.
 
Without busts like Houston and Perryman? I guess those first rounders and salary cap spent on Tanner Bruhn, Oli Henry, Bowes and Jye Clark really helped you retire that flag team.
Clark who came on and had 15 odd disposals in 3 quarters of a prelim, playing well? Who came free with Bowes, who also played well in both finals?

Henry who kicked 70+ goals the previous two seasons?

But yeah Bruhn and his court case mean the walls are falling down.

Think about what Collingwood spent in salary and draft capital respectively for two absolute duds who you have nobody to replace them with (Geelong have been fine minus Henry and Bruhn).
 
Without busts like Houston and Perryman? I guess those first rounders and salary cap spent on Tanner Bruhn, Oli Henry, Bowes and Jye Clark really helped you retire that flag team.

You know why Bruhn isn’t playing. What he demonstrated on the field in his two seasons was well worth the pick 18 investment.

O Henry had a poor season but will bounce back. Fun fact: he kicked 37 goals last year which would have him second on Collingwood’s list of goal kickers this year (only behind Elliott).

Bowes is on an AFL average wage, a walk up start in our 23 and about to play in a GF. Weird example.

Clark is starting to show what he can do as his body develops to where it needs to be. Was very solid in his three quarters in a hot prelim. Also about to play in a GF. Also a weird example. Where was Ed Allen in your prelim side?
 
You know why Bruhn isn’t playing. What he demonstrated on the field in his two seasons was well worth the pick 18 investment.

O Henry had a poor season but will bounce back. Fun fact: he kicked 37 goals last year which would have him second on Collingwood’s list of goal kickers this year (only behind Elliott).

Bowes is on an AFL average wage, a walk up start in our 23 and about to play in a GF. Weird example.

Clark is starting to show what he can do as his body develops to where it needs to be. Was very solid in his three quarters in a hot prelim. Also about to play in a GF. Also a weird example. Where was Ed Allen in your prelim side?

I only gave them as weird examples because the troll Meow was saying clear best 22 recruits in Perryman and Houston are busts. If those two are busts then anyone bar Bailey Smith must've been a bust for Geelong.

But I'm actually a fan of the Geelong model of topping up which I think the Pies are very much on a similar path in terms of list management.

I do have high hopes for Ed Allan who's played more games into this year than Clark. And Roan Steele showed great composure also in his 5th game when coming on as a sub in a prelim. I haven't included any of these players for the purposes of this discussion of the Pies having been able to regenerate our best 22 on the run.
 
I only gave them as weird examples because the troll Meow was saying clear best 22 recruits in Perryman and Houston are busts. If those two are busts then anyone bar Bailey Smith must've been a bust for Geelong.

But I'm actually a fan of the Geelong model of topping up which I think the Pies are very much on a similar path in terms of list management.

I do have high hopes for Ed Allan who's played more games into this year than Clark. And Roan Steele showed great composure also in his 5th game when coming on as a sub in a prelim. I haven't included any of these players for the purposes of this discussion of the Pies having been able to regenerate our best 22 on the run.
Just because you're upset doesn't mean you're responding to trolling. That's a you problem.

Houston and Perryman cost a lot between them in wages and draft capital, for a team that badly needs to hit the draft and spend that salary cap on actual stars. They are busts.
 
Just because you're upset doesn't mean you're responding to trolling. That's a you problem.

Houston and Perryman cost a lot between them in wages and draft capital, for a team that badly needs to hit the draft and spend that salary cap on actual stars. They are busts.
And they are best 22. Meanwhile you've spent a top 10 pick, another first rounder and multiple second rounders on players that aren't best 22. I guess that's a you problem.
 
And they are best 22. Meanwhile you've spent a top 10 pick, another first rounder and multiple second rounders on players that aren't best 22. I guess that's a you problem.
You could do with upgrading them with cheaper players who perform better though. Humphries played as well as them from a pick in the 60s and on rookie wages.

Geelong's list is in a much healthier position than Collingwood's. They will struggle to replace their veterans as successfully as Geelong have the past few years.
 

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lol bait and switch when you're listing the ages of players that are getting delisted/retiring this year like WHE, Mitchell, Johnson, Markov in 3 years time? How is that relevant?
That's four of your 16 players over 29 and 22 players over 27.

Assuming you trade in quality players to replace them, or attract free agents to replace them, there's still another 12 you'll need to bring in other the next three seasons. And then another 6 players over 27 after that.

And if the players you bring in are currently over 27, like Steven May, at best that just defers Collingwood's demographic cliff a couple of years.
Yet in the last 3 years we've added 8 best 22 players in Houston, Perryman, Membrey, Schultz, Hill, McStay, Frampton, Ned Long for the cost of a pick 14 last year, a pick in the mid 20s this year, a pick in the late 30s and other meaningless picks.
Well, you now need to replace 16 over the next three seasons or so.

So twice as many.
That's turning over more than one third of our best 22 for basically the equivalent of 2 late first rounders.
That's great, but again, the issue now isn't just your best 22.

It's that just under half of your full senior squad of 44 are going to retire in the next three seasons or so.
We will have no problems continuing to improve our list with the assets we have at our disposal.
Your list profile is a bit like Wile E Coyote. You've massively overshot the edge of the cliff. It's now just a matter of how long until you fall into the canyon.

And for what it's worth, your old mate Eddie McGuire has been talking a lot on his podcast about how bad it is for the AFL for so many big clubs to be rebuilding their lists at the sane time. And his, for the good of the game, the big clubs need handouts.

That's not because Eddie suddenly wants Essendon, West Coast, Richmond, and Carlton to do well.

It's because he knows the Collingwood rebuild is coming.
 
That's four of your 16 players over 29 and 22 players over 27.

Assuming you trade in quality players to replace them, or attract free agents to replace them, there's still another 12 you'll need to bring in other the next three seasons. And then another 6 players over 27 after that.

And if the players you bring in are currently over 27, like Steven May, at best that just defers Collingwood's demographic cliff a couple of years.

Well, you now need to replace 16 over the next three seasons or so.

So twice as many.

That's great, but again, the issue now isn't just your best 22.

It's that just under half of your full senior squad of 44 are going to retire in the next three seasons or so.

Your list profile is a bit like Wile E Coyote. You've massively overshot the edge of the cliff. It's now just a matter of how long until you fall into the canyon.

And for what it's worth, your old mate Eddie McGuire has been talking a lot on his podcast about how bad it is for the AFL for so many big clubs to be rebuilding their lists at the sane time. And his, for the good of the game, the big clubs need handouts.

That's not because Eddie suddenly wants Essendon, West Coast, Richmond, and Carlton to do well.

It's because he knows the Collingwood rebuild is coming.

Why do 29 year olds need to be replaced by 32 when we have guys like Jamie Elliott having career best seasons at 33? We can easily transition over the next 3-5+ years because that's the beauty of having players that don't drop dead by 32.

We don't need to replace all 16 over 29 players because not all of them are best 22. Plenty of teams young and old turn over half the list in 3 seasons. Stop throwing out list change numbers with no context like they are big and scary and do some research. I'm sick of giving examples like I already explained where we had 8 players in the 2023 premiership from the prelim finals team 5 years earlier or Geelong's prelim team only having half of the premiership team from 2022.

Can you tell me how much of the young squad from 3 and 5 years ago that Hawthorn has?
 
Why do 29 year olds need to be replaced by 32 when we have guys like Jamie Elliott having career best seasons at 33? We can easily transition over the next 3-5+ years because that's the beauty of having players that don't drop dead by 32.

We don't need to replace all 16 over 29 players because not all of them are best 22. Plenty of teams young and old turn over half the list in 3 seasons. Stop throwing out list change numbers with no context like they are big and scary and do some research. I'm sick of giving examples like I already explained where we had 8 players in the 2023 premiership from the prelim finals team 5 years earlier or Geelong's prelim team only having half of the premiership team from 2022.

Can you tell me how much of the young squad from 3 and 5 years ago that Hawthorn has?
We went from 9th to 3rd. Not a bad progression i reckon
 
Pies aren't comparable to Geelong. Geelong expertly drafted quality role players that can compliment their aging guns while developing into quality players themselves.

Holmes, Miers, Mannagh, Dempsey, O'Sullivan, Henry, Close etc.

Pies have Daicos and then not a single other player below the age of 25 who would get a game in another team outside of Hill who may not be there next year.

*McReery would play in some teams too. Forgot about him.
 

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Pies aren't comparable to Geelong. Geelong expertly drafted quality role players that can compliment their aging guns while developing into quality players themselves.

Holmes, Miers, Mannagh, Dempsey, O'Sullivan, Henry, Close etc.

Pies have Daicos and then not a single other player below the age of 25 who would get a game in another team outside of Hill who may not be there next year.

*McReery would play in some teams too. Forgot about him.
WE went from 9th to 3rd
 
Pies may make the finals but they are not a flag chance in 2026 as there's very little upside - and they lost a PF by 5-goals on their home ground to a team missing 6 of their best-23.

And we can debate all we like about whether the Pies list is cooked or not an what the future looks like, but can someone please list the best-6 players the Pies have who will be 25yo or under R1 2026?

Naicos
McCreery?
Long?
Steele?
Allan?
West?

Lions equivalent top-6:

W Ashcroft
Morris
L Ashcroft
Fletcher
Wilmott
Lohmann

Plus Lions have top-5 pick Annable coming, as well as Marshall and Gallop.


Or Geelong:
B Smith
SDK
Neale
Holmes
O Dempsey
O'Sullivan

*plus O Henry

So if listing those 18 x players, Naicos would be #1, then the remaining 5 x Pie players would be 14-18 on the list.

For this reason, the longer term future looks really challenging.
 
Pies may make the finals but they are not a flag chance in 2026 as there's very little upside - and they lost a PF by 5-goals on their home ground to a team missing 6 of their best-23.

And we can debate all we like about whether the Pies list is cooked or not an what the future looks like, but can someone please list the best-6 players the Pies have who will be 25yo or under R1 2026?

Naicos
McCreery?
Long?
Steele?
Allan?
West?

Lions equivalent top-6:

W Ashcroft
Morris
L Ashcroft
Fletcher
Wilmott
Lohmann

Plus Lions have top-5 pick Annable coming, as well as Marshall and Gallop.


Or Geelong:
B Smith
SDK
Neale
Holmes
O Dempsey
O'Sullivan

*plus O Henry

So if listing those 18 x players, Naicos would be #1, then the remaining 5 x Pie players would be 14-18 on the list.

For this reason, the longer term future looks really challenging.
Have the AFL introduced a rule in 2026 that all teams have to play a certain number of players aged 25 and under?
 

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Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

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