Analysis Contested Ball and Clearances

[bergholt]

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I'd say that shows a rough correlation. GWS, Sydney and Geelong are highly rated there and on the ladder. Brisbane, GC and Essendon match at the other end.

But Dogs are top of those lists and only 6th on the ladder. North are top of the ladder but only mid-table there. Melbourne are pretty highly ranked there but sitting 9th.

Certainly doesn't look conclusive to me.

 

[VDS66]

To me it looks as though Armo is carrying a back injury - can anyone confirm? I seem to remember something mentioned early in the pre-season.

He hurls himself into the contest when needed but not all game long. I think he's managing it.

Jack S is having a great season IMHO. Seb is developing great consistency and Luke is fantastic in patches.

Armo has back soreness from carrying the midfield most weeks.

Seriously though...

There are many nuances when it comes to clearance work.

The opposition can adjust accordingly to nullify you at the centre bounces. and vie versa.

It's something that comes with experience and strategy.

If we watch the games where we got smashed, the opps set up a similar play that we used int he 4th this week. Tap back and move the ball around until you can move it forward.

As someone else just posted... it's that 2nd and third disposal / option that makes the difference, and that's what we have to work on IMO.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Our Inside mids simply arent that good at winning the ball.
Sydney have three who are better than our best.
Priddis AVERAGES more than most of our players ever achieve. Lachie Neale has not had less than 13 in a game this year, and we think its great because Armo lifted and got 14.
Ross has never been a good enough ball winner for an inside mid. He averages under 10. ( last 3 games , 10, 16, 10 excellent though ).
Dunstan was exceptional during his first year, i guess it was too much to hope that he'd improve on that.

It will help when our younger players get more experienced and win more of the contested ball , Leigh Montagna style, but for all our insiders, they don't win enough of it.

Look at Sydney. Hannebury , Mitchell , Kennedy, Hannebury.
That's how to win the contested ball and we don't have it.

 

[gringo2011]

Usually the only time "luck" is involved in changing momentum is when the umps get involved ( see game against Hawks). The rest of the time it's generally due to digging in and working bloody hard.

You know what they say... Luck is 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration!

I thought Freo were lucky when they started to get on top seeing as they had only one behind and all their conversions were on song while we were wasteful. It's a funny one the umpiring, I'd love to see the stats but we were well on top when we were getting all the free kicks and the moment they started trying to even them up Freo came back strongly. I watched the Freo Richmond match and they were crucified by the umps giving Richmond the game and snuffing the contest early. These days free kicks are so much higher impact than they used to be. I want to know the scoring impact from frees- obviously the play on ones aren't the same.

 

[gringo2011]

Our Inside mids simply arent that good at winning the ball.
Sydney have three who are better than our best.
Priddis AVERAGES more than most of our players ever achieve. Lachie Neale has not had less than 13 in a game this year, and we think its great because Armo lifted and got 14.
Ross has never been a good enough ball winner for an inside mid. He averages under 10. ( last 3 games , 10, 16, 10 excellent though ).
Dunstan was exceptional during his first year, i guess it was too much to hope that he'd improve on that.

It will help when our younger players get more experienced and win more of the contested ball , Leigh Montagna style, but for all our insiders, they don't win enough of it.

Look at Sydney. Hannebury , Mitchell , Kennedy, Hannebury.
That's how to win the contested ball and we don't have it.

Ross is predominantly playing outside with runs through the middle this year. Armo was hardly played in there against Essendon and spent most of the game playing like Mav as a defensive forward. Steven gets spells outside and inside but is probably the most used of all our mids in the centre. I guess we don't really have a permanent inside structure which is what Freo seem to do and why Neale can get so many clearances. The way we structure is with a spread of guys. I'm really not too concerned and think we can develop that aspect with out bringing in players because of the relatively young ages of several of our mids.

 

[Rors]

Jaeger will help this

Needs to be capable of actually getting onto the park first & foremost I would have thought....

 

[Rors]

Our Inside mids simply arent that good at winning the ball.
Sydney have three who are better than our best.
Priddis AVERAGES more than most of our players ever achieve. Lachie Neale has not had less than 13 in a game this year, and we think its great because Armo lifted and got 14.
Ross has never been a good enough ball winner for an inside mid. He averages under 10. ( last 3 games , 10, 16, 10 excellent though ).
Dunstan was exceptional during his first year, i guess it was too much to hope that he'd improve on that.

It will help when our younger players get more experienced and win more of the contested ball , Leigh Montagna style, but for all our insiders, they don't win enough of it.

Look at Sydney. Hannebury , Mitchell , Kennedy, Hannebury.
That's how to win the contested ball and we don't have it.

Does Daniel Hannebery have a brother?

I look at those Sydney names & I think - Elite ball getters with very average disposal. Sydney would be best served getting rid of Mitchell & adding Heeney to the midfield crew - far far better disposal. If Sydney's mids had better disposal to match their ball-winning ability, Franklin & Tippett would be kicking 150 goals a year between them

As for us, I like Ross in there because I would say his disposal is better than Armo & Steven. But we definitely need an elite ball winner.... Maybe we have them though? Acres & Dunstan are still in the toddler phase of an AFL career. We need to allow them to grow up. Not everyone can be Joel Selwood, Jaeger O'Meara AFL ready within 1 year

 

[gringo2011]

Does Daniel Hannebery have a brother?

I look at those Sydney names & I think - Elite ball getters with very average disposal. Sydney would be best served getting rid of Mitchell & adding Heeney to the midfield crew - far far better disposal. If Sydney's mids had better disposal to match their ball-winning ability, Franklin & Tippett would be kicking 150 goals a year between them

As for us, I like Ross in there because I would say his disposal is better than Armo & Steven. But we definitely need an elite ball winner.... Maybe we have them though? Acres & Dunstan are still in the toddler phase of an AFL career. We need to allow them to grow up. Not everyone can be Joel Selwood, Jaeger O'Meara AFL ready within 1 year

Ross and Armo are both slow burns that paid off in the end, patience is the key. Gresham, Newness, Webster, Mav, Minch, Curren are all capable of playing in the middle. I would even try giving Sav another run in there even though he's looking exceptional as a running back. Sam Gilbert has looked good at times too.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I actually wondered if Armo as a forward was partly to force others ( Ross?) to do more. Ross was really good against Essendon.
But then yesterday, he had to go back to the midfield to save our skins.
Even last year when Armo was averaging 12 disposals he wasn't in the same league as the top ball winners in the contest.
Most contested possessions ever by various players:
Armo 19 ( including against Port this year )
Steven 19
Ross 16 ( two weeks ago )
Dunstan 15 ( 3rd game )
Weller 12
Minchington 10
Curren 13
Acres 10
Robert Eddy 9

Priddis 26
Rockliff 22
Cripps 23
Swan 20
Merrett 18 / Watson 21
Neale 25 / Fyfe 26
Selwood 23
Ablett 27
Ward 24
Sam Mitchell 23
Jack Viney 23
Ziebell 20
Gray 22
Cotchin 21
Thompson 24
Dahlhous 21

Every club has a better ball winner than we do except maybe the Dogs.

 

[aussierulesrules]

With regards to the comment that we only have 3 or 4 main midfield options and then don't seem to have a plan-B, one thing that has surprised me is that at none of these stages when we've been getting destroyed in the clearances have we been willing to throw Joey back in there. This is someone who has had a 121 clearance season and has had 12 clearances in a game, plus an 11, and 10 four times. In 10 games this year, he has just 14 in total.

I get that we probably want to look to the future and not have to rely on him in there any more, but I don't think it would kill us to throw him in there when we're getting smashed, just to see if he can help turn things around.

I expect we'll continue to improve in this area when the likes of Dunstan, Acres, Sinclair, Freeman and Gresham are fitter/stronger and more experienced, but I'm now a lot less against drafting a Scharenberg/Brodie type than I was a few months ago, or for us to alternatively go really hard at a Brad Crouch, or a Hopper type, for the end of next year.

 

[Kilroy]

Add another Jack

Take your pick:

Jack Bowes
Jack Scrimshaw
Jack Graham
Jack Rolls
Jack Beverley
Jack Donnellan
Jack Dal Santo

 

[Saintbloke]

I watched the replay of the Freo game- and it was pretty obvious that our lapse from the later part of the first quarter to the whole second quarter was an intensity thing- Armo, Steven, Ross and Dustan were too far from the ball and watched Freo mids collect the loose ball and run away with it, then get their spread working.
Dunno about you, but if the ball is in question, you go and grab it, you don't watch your opponent run in and grab it, control it, and dispose of it effectively. Rather than play catch up footy later in a game, we need to be more consistent in the midfield over 4 quarters, and the coach needs to do more work in this area.

 

[The Punter]

What is the definition of a contested possession? If I receive the ball and am caught and just get the ball away before being pinged, is that a contested possession?

We had a low number of contested possessions against Collingwood because we ran harder and they stopped contesting.

I just think we're an outside team at the moment, with the gameplan predicated on speed of ball movement. Freo closed up the game on Saturday and almost won because of dictating the style of play, but once we got the ball back on the outside the momentum changed. Our improved play on larger grounds (except for the WCE game) is a testament to this. It's part of the reason we are a chance this weekend (along with a middling Adelaide midfield).

 

[arete]

With Armo, Steven, Ross, Dunstan etc this was meant to be a major strength but so far it's the complete opposite. Ranked 15th this year which is surprisingly an improvement on last year where we were I think 18th.

Against North we gave up 12 straight clearances.

Against Freo it was at least 10 straight.

For most of our issues I'm happy to concede that we're a developing team that needs time but we're extremely bad in two extremely important stats and the slight worry is that I'm not sure what the answer is.

Do we need to recruit a clearance specialist, are they already on the list, will our young mids naturally get better at it? It's a long way from 18th which we were last year to top 5 which is where you need to be.

Armo possibly hampered by back injury. Still carries the inside load.
Steven is our only genuine line breaking mid, plays both inside and outside. Carries the outside load.
McKenzie to develop as another hard at it, pacy, line breaking option, with incision distribution. Can he also play inside? Haven't seen enough to say.
Dunstan - still a kid. Took a battering in his first season, looked sore in his second. Yet to play 50 games and only 21. Set to explode next year.
Gresham - he just looks like he has... "it". Expect so see him winning his own share of contested ball, and fairly soon at that.
Newnes - gets his share of contested ball. Very underrated player. Great kick as well.
Acres - slow burn, shoulder dislocation(pre-AFL) didn't help. Will play inside mid. How soon before he reaches his potential? Don't know. But when he does will fix a lot of contested ball/clearance problems.
Ross - looks like he's being developed on his outside game this year. Being groomed as an inside/outside type? Yet to play 50 games!
Templeton - outside gut runner. Joey replacement.
Curren - clearance beast. Clean up his disposal and we have a winner. Ross was told to work on his kicking in VFL(more attacking not just safe option). Can Curren lower his eyes instead of boot-to-ball and return to the AFL? Stay tuned to St Kilda Team Selection to find out.
Billings - Needs a few pre seasons before he can compete on the inside.
Sinclair - something just screams 'goal-kicking inside mid' but can't quite get a grip on him. Has composure when disposing of ball, good decision maker.
Minchington - looks okay in contested ball, good hands in close.
Murdoch - hoping he can do a Bartel and play back/forward/midfield, haven't seen enough to make comment on contested ball but has excellent skills.
Weller - I have NFI. But geez he is quick. And big. Maybe another pack bursting, line breaking mid in the making? Good kick for goal.
Rice, White, Freeman - Unknown quantities.
Longer/Hickey - will continue to improve which should help with clearances.

Our young mids will naturally get better at contested ball/clearances with experience and bigger bodies. Improvement should come from Dunstan + Gresham short term and Acres+Sinclair long term, with bit part contributions from our outside mids. Newnes, Ross and Dunstan are the most "experienced" of the younger mids, with an average 22years and 57 games between them. If Mav included, average of 23 years and 62 games between them.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Look at Sydney. Hannebury , Mitchell , Kennedy, Hannebury.
That's how to win the contested ball and we don't have it.

Shit, no wonder we can't compete - they have two Hanneburys (sic) to our zero.

 

[Diehard Saint]

[QUOTE="Rors, post: 44784705, member: 11823" ..... But we definitely need an elite ball winner.... Maybe we have them though? Acres & Dunstan are still in the toddler phase of an AFL career. We need to allow them to grow up. Not everyone can be Joel Selwood, Jaeger O'Meara AFL ready within 1 year[/QUOTE]

This.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Shit, no wonder we can't compete - they have two Hanneburys (sic) to our zero.

Shit! and they have Heeney as well

 

[12Chill]

Top 10 for clearances at Round 10 LAST year:

1. David Armitage – 68 clearances (10 games) / 6.8 per game
2. Jack Steven – 43 clearances (10 games) /4.3 per game
3. Luke Dunstan – 33 clearances (9 games) / 3.66 per game
4. Adam Schneider – 27 clearances (9 games) / 3 per game
5. Billy Longer – 23 clearances (10 games) / 2.3 per game
6. Jack Sinclair – 20 clearances (10 games) / 2 per game
7. Maverick Weller – 20 clearances (8 games) /2.5 per game
8. Leigh Montagna – 18 clearances (5 games) / 3.6 per game
9. Jack Billings – 15 clearances (9 games) / 1.66 per game
10. Jack Newnes – 14 clearances (10 games) / 1.4 per game

At round 10 this season:

1. Jack Steven – 63 clearances (10 games) / 6.3 per game
2. David Armitage – 55 clearances (10 games) / 5.5 per game
3. Sebastian Ross – 44 clearances (10 games) / 4.4 per game
4. Tom Hickey – 36 clearances (10 games) / 3.6 per game
5. Luke Dunstan – 33 clearances (9 games) / 3.66 per game
6. Maverick Weller – 20 clearances (10 games) / 2 per game
7. Leigh Montagna – 14 clearances (10 games) / 1.4 per game
8. Jack Billings – 13 clearances (9 games) / 1.44 per game
9. Sam Gilbert – 13 clearances (10 games) / 1.3 per game
10. Jack Newnes – 11 clearances (10 games) / 1.1 per game
= Blake Acres – 11 clearances (5 games) / 2.2 per game

>Steven and Armitage switch positions, holding down spots 1 and 2. Gone from 111 between them last year at this stage to 118.
>Dunstan same amount as last year, while Billings, Weller and Newnes have had a slight decrease although still holding spots in the top 10.
>Ross has absolutely shot out of the blocks- he has more so far this year than Steven had at the same time last season. Mind blowing.
>8 of the top 10 averaged 2 or more clearances a game last season, compared to 7/10 (11 including Acres) this season, and the same amount of 3+.
>Montagna's shift to the backline is noticable as he dropped from 3.6 clearances to 1.4 per game.
>Hickey averages +1.3 more clearances per game in comparison to Longer as a ruckman
>Interestingly, just below our noticable reliance on our top 5 (Steven, Armo, Ross, Hickey, Dunstan), the best average next up is Acres with 2.2 a game.

 

[The Punter]

Dunstan same clearances as last year, third best last year, fifth best this year. Point to be made about that - midfield depth better.
Weller same clearances as last year, first 10 games last year pure mid, first 10 games this year mostly defensive forward. Point to be made about that - Weller continues to improve.