Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 3.

[Grave Danger]

I walked under the Cactus on day four...

 

[Eddie Dingle]

I walked under the Cactus on day four...

View attachment 1051716

The **** is that?

 

[Grave Danger]

The fu** is that?

A lime green and guano coloured thing.

 

[Steve Dore]

The fu** is that?

Art.

 

[Grave Danger]

Art.

It's called 'Grow Your Own'. I reckon the artist might do just that, and gave the judges of the competition he won a good deal too.

 

[Lawnchair Larry]

Interested in why current lockdowns suggest a 5 day shutdown.

The AVERAGE incubation time is 5.1 days, so it looks like it is related to that.

But if lockdown starts with the presence of a single case, then AVERAGE is a poor reflection of action to be taken.

Long story shortened....the 2nd Victorian wave is ideal at looking at possible DISTRIBUTION of incubation times as it is an isolated system with Victorians highly sensitised to any drop away in health.

To do that I am looking at the daily wobble at the top of the daily confirmed cases in the 2nd Victorian wave, and correcting the daily confirmed cases by normalising to the daily tests taken ie [Confirmed/Tests] each day.

I am taking the first derivative of this curve to show how the RATE changes over the duration of the 2nd wave. Like this:

Next I performed a Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) on the 1st derivative RATE curve (image right above), which acts to make the curve (RHS above) the product of the sum of discrete trigonometric sine functions. These discrete sine functions will have a frequency (Cycles per Day) which can be converted to a periodicity (or wavelength) output with units (Days per Cycle) – related as the reciprocal of each other. This gives units I am interested in ie DAYS, which might relate to incubation period/s. Like this:

Worldometers cites 3 studies on incubation period:



These data bear strong similarity to the peak RATE maxima in the RHS plot above. Like this, where the dotted line indicates that the peak maxima and Worldometers data are identical (y=x):

The correlation looks pretty strong and suggests that 3 independent incubation periods are operating simultaneously. This could be related to age, ethnicity, compromised health etc.

What is happening beyond 10 days in the periodicity plot above? Not sure as there appears to be a broad flat peak up to about 22 days. It matches a very broad range of 0-24 days in one set of the Worldometers data, but unfortunately there are only 5 data points beyond 10 days in my data. I’m not sure as a result.

Based on my curve which shows a DISTRIBUTION rather than a single AVERAGE value, a 5 day lockdown is somewhat dangerous.

On a brighter note my curve would suggest that a quarantine of 10 days might be just as effective as 14 days (neglecting beyond 10 days where I have a paucity of data).

P.S. I have just heard the Victorian CMO state an incubation period of 14 days. I believe this to be incorrect, and probably relates to a safety factor they have built in to average values.

 

[philreich]

No less than 36 US states have now recorded more than 1000 deaths per million. No wonder █████ told everyone that the crisis had been averted.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

The fu** is that?

Obviously some sort of green mutated pigeon.

 

[Grave Danger]

Obviously some sort of green mutated pigeon.

I think it's radioactive - it's even lime green in black & white pictures...

 

[Steve Dore]

I think it's radioactive - it's even lime green in black & white pictures...

View attachment 1051935

It's some sort of fancy biomorphic 5G antenna

 

[Interstater]

Had a look at this last night.
Makes me appreciate how lucky most of us have been.

Adam Hills: The Last Leg: Series 21 Episode 3 Sara Pascoe and Phil Wang

Adam, Josh and Alex return to discuss life in lockdown in the UK and dissect the week's news including the latest on the global COVID situation and the Biden Presidency. With special guests Sara Pascoe and Phil Wang.

iview.abc.net.au

 

[raptalia]

A good news day.

No local infection in Australia today despite two States having a live UK variant out there for a few days.

WA to come out of lock down this evening. Over 1M hits on the WASafe app which is now compulsory in most businesses. That should really help tracers when needed.

 

[Duck Farmer]

The fu** is that?

I don't know but I reckon the Libs will have a better chance in the upcoming state election if they appoint it leader to secure the Kodos vote.

 

[PAFC04]

I think those that are lucky enough to get the vaccine, should. I would if I could, but i can't until my oncologist tells me so as I'm on chemo treatment.

I'm one of those who has to duck and weave any kind of infection let alone COVID19.

This argument of being forced to have it, will save lives, not only the person who had the vaccine but others who can't. (it is similar if not the same as a mask)

I would like to know those that don't want to have the vaccine cause they don't trust what it will do to them, have they ever eaten a sausage from the BBQ popup tents or a nugget from Macca's? Do you know if any of the ingredients that these are made from cause any adverse affects at a later stage in life?

Anyway, I think soon you will not be able to travel into other countries if you choose not to have the vaccine. I bet those who don't want to take the vaccine, demand those who come in from overseas be vaccinated before entering the country as well as isolate for 2 weeks.

 

[HinkleysHeroes]

I think those that are lucky enough to get the vaccine, should. I would if I could, but i can't until my oncologist tells me so as I'm on chemo treatment.

I'm one of those who has to duck and weave any kind of infection let alone COVID19.

This argument of being forced to have it, will save lives, not only the person who had the vaccine but others who can't. (it is similar if not the same as a mask)

I would like to know those that don't want to have the vaccine cause they don't trust what it will do to them, have they ever eaten a sausage from the BBQ popup tents or a nugget from Macca's? Do you know if any of the ingredients that these are made from cause any adverse affects at a later stage in life?

Anyway, I think soon you will not be able to travel into other countries if you choose not to have the vaccine. I bet those who don't want to take the vaccine, demand those who come in from overseas be vaccinated before entering the country as well as isolate for 2 weeks.

You know trying to talk sense into an antivaxxer with facts is like butting your head against a wall right?

 

[Steve Dore]

.... I would like to know those that don't want to have the vaccine cause they don't trust what it will do to them, have they ever eaten a sausage from the BBQ popup tents or a nugget from Macca's? Do you know if any of the ingredients that these are made from cause any adverse affects at a later stage in life? ....

I live within a 500m radius of where Telstra are proposing to build a tower to provide 4G and 5G coverage to my area. Lack of reliable 4G coverage is a pain in the butt especially as I've been working from home since March 2020. A group of local residents are opposed to the tower for a number of reasons. One of my neighbours dropped in the other weekend to try and garner my support for the anti-tower campaign. He tried to convince me that we'd all get brain cancer from "5G radiation". I asked him to explain to me the science behind how "5G radiation" causes brain cancer. He said he'd explain it but he just needed to step outside for a smoke first. I didn't let him back in.

 

[Grave Danger]

Aww, cute - near neighbours have got 5 days worth of face masks on the washing line. Just the el cheapo light blue sort, not the fancy fabric ones.


Please note, I don't normally take close notice of my neighbours' washing lines, this just happened to catch my eye this morning.

 

[malcheski]

Aww, cute - near neighbours have got 5 days worth of face masks on the washing line. Just the el cheapo light blue sort, not the fancy fabric ones.


Please note, I don't normally take close notice of my neighbours' washing lines, this just happened to catch my eye this morning.

Ok Grave Danger a snowdropper from way back hey?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Contested Marx]

Aww, cute - near neighbours have got 5 days worth of face masks on the washing line. Just the el cheapo light blue sort, not the fancy fabric ones.


Please note, I don't normally take close notice of my neighbours' washing lines, this just happened to catch my eye this morning.

They're reusing disposables?

 

[Grave Danger]

They're reusing disposables?

Hey, it better than throwing them away and have them clogging up the waterways.

 

[Grave Danger]

Ok Grave Danger a snowdropper from way back hey?

I think we all grow out of that sort of thing don't we?

 

[raptalia]

I think there has to be a certain amount of luck about the WA local COVID case but it is interesting that the experts believe that some people can be more infectious than others. Hopefully that is also the case in Victoria.

WA passed its first real COVID test with flying colours, but did the state just get lucky?

Experts say sheer good luck contributed to Western Australia successfully clamping down on community outbreak of the highly transmissible UK coronavirus variant, as the state moves out of hard lockdown.

www.abc.net.au

 

[OneGreatClub]

Is this our Gupta?

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

 

[Steve Dore]

Is this our Gupta?

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

Unless there's another Sanjeev Gupta at GFG.

 

[Grave Danger]

Is this our Gupta?

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

"A V-shaped recovery..."