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Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 4.
- Thread starter Capital Power
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- Feb 29, 2012
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If anyone is ever wondering how people can be so shocked when someone wins an election that no one they have ever known would vote for... Case study a and b in OGC and 66.
Morrison won't win the next election. Even Murdoch is laughing at him now. You can't compare this to 2019. He barely needs much swing against him. He's a international laughingstock
Who is the opposition leader? Is it Albo still?
It's pretty clear we are not going to reach 80% double dose by 23/11 (guardian is predicting 29/11 at current rates when they do tend to slow the higher you get) and at the same time slowing vaccination rates potentially put 90% double dose 12+ (a benchmark no other state bar the great hermit kingdom of WA has talked about for their "before June 30 next year reopening date") months away to ease restrictions that are currently being enjoyed in Sydney where standing consumption rules have basically made all bars and pubs maskless.
Amazing how we could get it so wrong both ways with one announcement (probably reflective of tensions between SA health and government) and I would suggest that there will be some form of adjustment.
Amazing how we could get it so wrong both ways with one announcement (probably reflective of tensions between SA health and government) and I would suggest that there will be some form of adjustment.
66 is a zealot and the other one doesn't go outside.
- Oct 8, 2004
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South Australia will have a more than one-in-four chance of a COVID outbreak leading to between four and 51 deaths when the state opens its borders on November 23, according to highly-anticipated modelling handed to the Marshall Government – but immediately removing ongoing restrictions could see the death toll soar beyond 400.
The SA Health-commissioned University of Adelaide modelling, released to InDaily, considers the impact of reopening SA’s borders with 80 per cent of South Australians aged 16 and over fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
Three scenarios are considered: maintaining existing public health and social distancing measures, relaxing the mandated use of face masks in general setting while maintaining other public health measures, and introducing ‘Vaccine Certificates’ to fully-vaccinated people to engage in “higher risk” activities.
In each scenario, only fully vaccinated people would be able to enter SA.
The study, by Professor Joshua Ross from Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences and Dr Thomas Prowse from the School of Biological Sciences, found under the initial scenario that SA would likely be able to manage the ward and ICU demand from COVID-19 infections generated in the community – but not under the latter two scenarios modelled.
Reopening at 80 per cent with all existing public health measures retained would see an estimated 27 per cent chance of an ‘outbreak’ – defined as “averaging more than 100 cases per day over any three-day period”.
“In the event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to be manageable with respect to hospital capacity,” the report states, estimating a median Peak Ward Occupancy of 36 beds, with an “extremely small chance of demand exceeding 200 ward beds”.
Peak ICU Occupancy is estimated at a median of nine beds with an extremely small chance of demand exceeding 30, while the median prediction for total deaths under this scenario is 13 over 300 days, with a total range between four and 51.
Premier Steven Marshall announced last week that borders would reopen on November 23, with broader restrictions to be eased once SA hit a vaccination rate of 90 per cent of the population over 12 – which Marshall predicted would occur before Christmas.
However, the modelling includes a table that suggests while the 80 per cent vaccination rate is expected by late November – albeit after the 23rd– the 90 per cent benchmark is not predicted to be met until January, and even then only for people aged 16 and over.
Under the modelling, the chance of an outbreak in the second scenario – removing the mask mandate – soars to 64 per cent, with the researchers predicting this to “present risks to being able to manage cases, in particular with respect to ICU capacity”.
Peak Ward Occupancy would hit a median of 70 beds – and as many as 203, with a 3 per cent chance of demand exceeding 200 ward beds, while the median ICU occupancy peak would be 18 beds, with a 20 per cent chance of exceeding 30.
Under this scenario, the median number of total deaths is modelled at 55.
Under the vaccine certificate model, that median for total deaths rises to 315, with a range between eight and 424.
In that scenario, which is modelled with an expected 75 per cent compliance rate to the vaccination certificate requirement, there is considered to be an 84 per cent chance of an outbreak, which would see ward occupancy surge to 351 beds and ICUs to be clogged with a median peak of 72 (ranging as high as 119.)
The SA Health-commissioned University of Adelaide modelling, released to InDaily, considers the impact of reopening SA’s borders with 80 per cent of South Australians aged 16 and over fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
Three scenarios are considered: maintaining existing public health and social distancing measures, relaxing the mandated use of face masks in general setting while maintaining other public health measures, and introducing ‘Vaccine Certificates’ to fully-vaccinated people to engage in “higher risk” activities.
In each scenario, only fully vaccinated people would be able to enter SA.
The study, by Professor Joshua Ross from Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences and Dr Thomas Prowse from the School of Biological Sciences, found under the initial scenario that SA would likely be able to manage the ward and ICU demand from COVID-19 infections generated in the community – but not under the latter two scenarios modelled.
Reopening at 80 per cent with all existing public health measures retained would see an estimated 27 per cent chance of an ‘outbreak’ – defined as “averaging more than 100 cases per day over any three-day period”.
“In the event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to be manageable with respect to hospital capacity,” the report states, estimating a median Peak Ward Occupancy of 36 beds, with an “extremely small chance of demand exceeding 200 ward beds”.
Peak ICU Occupancy is estimated at a median of nine beds with an extremely small chance of demand exceeding 30, while the median prediction for total deaths under this scenario is 13 over 300 days, with a total range between four and 51.
Premier Steven Marshall announced last week that borders would reopen on November 23, with broader restrictions to be eased once SA hit a vaccination rate of 90 per cent of the population over 12 – which Marshall predicted would occur before Christmas.
However, the modelling includes a table that suggests while the 80 per cent vaccination rate is expected by late November – albeit after the 23rd– the 90 per cent benchmark is not predicted to be met until January, and even then only for people aged 16 and over.
Under the modelling, the chance of an outbreak in the second scenario – removing the mask mandate – soars to 64 per cent, with the researchers predicting this to “present risks to being able to manage cases, in particular with respect to ICU capacity”.
Peak Ward Occupancy would hit a median of 70 beds – and as many as 203, with a 3 per cent chance of demand exceeding 200 ward beds, while the median ICU occupancy peak would be 18 beds, with a 20 per cent chance of exceeding 30.
Under this scenario, the median number of total deaths is modelled at 55.
Under the vaccine certificate model, that median for total deaths rises to 315, with a range between eight and 424.
In that scenario, which is modelled with an expected 75 per cent compliance rate to the vaccination certificate requirement, there is considered to be an 84 per cent chance of an outbreak, which would see ward occupancy surge to 351 beds and ICUs to be clogged with a median peak of 72 (ranging as high as 119.)
- Feb 29, 2012
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Are they saying by removing just masks their modelling increases the chances 64%? If so, this is garbage research based on garbage in. Also, don't need a university professor to create a shit model to inform us that we are going to get a covid outbreak when the borders open. What exactly do people think is going to happen when a virus meets a new large group of people with only limited artificial immunity.
- Jun 12, 2012
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Congratulations on your HD in Ethics with Professor Janus.
Contested Marx
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- Jun 21, 2014
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Lol it's like you've never heard of risk assessments before
- Aug 15, 2015
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Papa G pro boomer deaths like a true lefty zoomer socialist
Contested Marx
FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY
- Jun 21, 2014
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Nah mate he's a libertardian
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- Nov 6, 2014
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Give up..and let him ramble on…you just can’t get through to him
A librarian!!! ******* campaigner.
Are there still libraries? I thought Google, Wiki and IMDb would've made them redundant by now.
- Nov 6, 2014
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Every boomer dies. But not every boomer truly lives.
- Apr 27, 2008
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****ing bold claim that one, Liberal are certainly no worse than they've been at any point in the last 20 years, and Labor is possibly more invisible than they've ever been.
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