Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

[raptalia]

Probably because the ability to get transport from point A to point B would be considered an 'essential service' compared to having a leisurely beer or coffee at a public establishment. I can't find the article so its hard to comment.

Surely the Monopoly times are not stupid enough to think that one picture of crowded conditions on one tram is going to convince us that those are the status quo conditions on public transport. If they are and public transport is running at restricted capacity then yes that is a real problem and something needs to be done about it.

But sure, lets double down and open pubs and cafes so we can have crowds assemble there as well.

It is not a tram it is a train and the point of my post is that it is not doubling down. In fact pubs and restaurants with patronage limits and distancing rules are likely to be less crowded and far less likely to emulate the scenes in the photographs. That was the whole point of my post.

The morning paper is not the only news outlet carrying the story. That photo was taken on the Gawler line but the ABC did a story on the Outer Harbour line a few nights back and the conditions were just as crowded. There are photos of the Outer Harbour and the Belair lines in the links at the end of this post.

The SA Minister of Transport, Stephan Knoll, has since acknowledged there is a problem. Several of Adelaide's diesel trains were taken out of service late last week because of a mechanical fault and this created reduced services on the Outer Harbour and Gawler lines and forced the closure of the Grange line. Services were reduced to 30 minutes at peak hour. Despite reduced services there were no substitute bus services provided. The Minister has since sent a party to travel on the Gawler line and the recommendation is basically for no change. This, despite the Chief Medical Officer in SA saying,

“Just catching public transport, there’s no problem with that but it’s just that you cannot social distance on it,” Dr Spurrier said.
“I think it would be much safer to avoid getting on any transport where you can’t do the social distancing,” she said.

As for the status quo that has nothing to do with it as you only need one crowded train and one infected person to start a cluster. It only needed one Ruby Princess to create havoc across Australia.

If you cannot open pubs, sporting clubs and restaurants because of the risk they pose even with crowd limits and a 4 sq m. social distancing rule then it stands to reason you cannot have over crowded public transport. Bear in mind that many of the people in these photographs are workers catching the same train service into work every day and enduring the same crowded conditions and many have no choice. We have a choice as to whether we go to the pub or a restaurant or a local footy club and with restrictions on the number of patrons in these venues crowding is not likely to be anywhere near as bad as that photo shows. It isn't simply the media who are questioning this situation one passenger tweeted...

"This is ridiculous, the staff are
telling us to crowd together to let
more people on."


I am no fan of the Murdoch Press as many of my previous posts will demonstrate but they do have their uses at times and this time around they got it right. They highlighted a dangerous situation to which the Minister has done little to alleviate and this time around the morning press needs to be given some credit for it.

A couple of links, complete with photographs, illustrate that the Monopoly Times was not the only news outlet to highlight the situation on Adelaide's train services and that the response to overcrowding from both the Minister and the Chief Medical Officer ...

'Incredibly unsafe': Photos show commuters crowding Aussie trains amid virus

Adelaide Metro has been criticised for its 'unsafe' train service after photos showed commuters jammed together 'like sardines' amid the coronavirus pandemic.

au.news.yahoo.com

Fifty trains out of service as fault forces Adelaide passengers to 'pack like sardines'

The number of Adelaide rail services has been radically reduced after a mechanical fault, with remaining trains becoming packed with passengers apparently in breach of social distancing.

www.abc.net.au

FOOTNOTE: One thing about continued overcrowding on peak hour public transport. If it continues and we still get days of zero positive test results it indicates that there if very little COVID-19 virus out there.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Surely the Monopoly times are not stupid enough to think that one picture of crowded conditions on one tram is going to convince us that those are the status quo conditions on public transport.

The Gawler line has had something like 50 of its usual 70 train carriages removed. I can't speak for other lines but unfortunately those conditions are the status quo on the Gawler line. I live in the area so I know.

 

[Portology]

Not good at all. Really hoping it turns out to be an issue with the initial positive test on these guys. Otherwise the simpler versions of herd immunity are off the table.

Sailors on sidelined USS Theodore Roosevelt get virus for second time

The aircraft carrier has been at port in Guam since late March after the outbreak of the virus was discovered.

www.nbcnews.com

Five sailors on the U.S. aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time

On iPhone using recycled electrons, via BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Not good at all. Really hoping it turns out to be an issue with the initial positive test on these guys. Otherwise the simpler versions of herd immunity are off the table.

Sailors on sidelined USS Theodore Roosevelt get virus for second time

The aircraft carrier has been at port in Guam since late March after the outbreak of the virus was discovered.

www.nbcnews.com

On iPhone using recycled electrons, via BigFooty.com mobile app

Nah. South Korea already have 100s of reinfections on record. Herd immunity has always been more wishful thinking than reality.

 

[chiwigi]

BMA backs teaching unions' opposition to schools reopening

Doctors say teachers in England ‘absolutely right’ to prioritise testing over 1 June return

www.theguardian.com

 

[Janus]

The supervisor of San Diego County, California, is pushing back against Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order, arguing that only six of the county’s 194 recorded coronavirus deaths are “pure, solely coronavirus deaths.”

“We’ve unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,” San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond said in an interview this week, according to the San Diego Tribune. “I mean, what number are we trying to get to with those odds? I mean, it’s incredible. We want to be safe, and we can do it, but unfortunately, it’s more about control than getting the economy going again and keeping people safe.”

San Diego County supervisor says six of 194 confirmed deaths are 'pure, solely coronavirus' deaths

The supervisor of San Diego County, California, is pushing back against Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order, arguing that only six of the county’s 194

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Did you know that in the United States they got the flu vaccine wrong this year? This is what they inoculated for:

• A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (updated)
• A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus (updated)
• B/Colorado/06/2017-like (Victoria lineage) virus
• B/Phuket/3073/2013-like (Yamagata lineage) virus.

This is what Australia is inoculating for:

• an A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus
• an A/South Australia/34/2019 (H3N2)-like virus
• a B/Washington/02/2019-like (B/Victoria lineage) virus
• a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like (B/Yamagata lineage) virus

A World Health Organization (WHO) advisory group that met this week in Geneva to assess strains to include in the Southern Hemisphere's 2020 flu vaccines recommended swapping out the H3N2 component and one that covers the influenza B Victoria lineage.

The new H3N2 component is A/South Australia/34/2019, which replaces A/Kansas/14/2017— the group's delayed pick for the Northern Hemisphere's upcoming flu season. The newly recommended H3N2 strain is also a change from the one included in this season's Southern Hemisphere vaccine, which was A/Switzerland/8060/2017.

Also, the new influenza B Victoria lineage strain is B/Washington/02/2019, which bumps out B/Colorado/06/2017, the one the experts recommended for last season's Northern Hemisphere vaccines and this season's Southern Hemisphere vaccine.

Two strains changed for Southern Hemisphere 2020 flu vaccine

www.cidrap.umn.edu

That article is from September 27, 2019. Now ask yourself this simple question: Why did the World Health Organisation delay their pick to replace the strain of Influenza A in the Northern Hemisphere? Why did the CDC use the old strain, and continue to push people to get the vaccine even though they knew it was wrong?

Influenza A is the only influenza that is zoonotic. Ask yourself if China has a problem with their pork industry at the moment.

Isn't it a distinct possibility that the issues in the US are purely from getting the strain of flu wrong, which coupled with COVID-19 have exacerbated the issues?

We report co-infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza A virus in a patient with pneumonia in China. The case highlights possible co-detection of known respiratory viruses. We noted low sensitivity of upper respiratory specimens for SARS-CoV-2, which could further complicate recognition of the full extent of disease.

Co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza A Virus in Patient with Pneumonia, China

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 can be difficult and patients can be co-infected with influenza A virus and COVID-19.

wwwnc.cdc.gov

In 2017, a terrible flu season in Australia presaged an American outbreak in which 79,000 died. Experts advise getting the shot soon.

At the peak of the 2017-2018 season, the C.D.C. estimated that more than 56,000 Americans would die. Officials later calculated that 79,000 had — which, the agency noted, is more people than usually fill a Super Bowl stadium.

Australia Just Had a Bad Flu Season. That May Be a Warning for the U.S. (Published 2019)

In 2017, a terrible flu season in Australia presaged an American outbreak in which 79,000 died. Experts advise getting the shot soon.

www.nytimes.com

How many people have died from COVID-19 in the US, supposedly? 88,000+? Funny how the rates are pretty similar, isn't it? Read the article about the patient from China. They say that Influenza A and SARS-CoV-2 had a genetic sequence that was 98.9% similar, which was why they had trouble diagnosing it correctly.

 

[Magus]

Why did the World Health Organisation delay their pick to replace the strain of Influenza A in the Northern Hemisphere? Why did the CDC use the old strain, and continue to push people to get the vaccine even though they knew it was wrong?

Why do you think?

 

[Powerage]

Nah. South Korea already have 100s of reinfections on record. Herd immunity has always been more wishful thinking than reality.

Early evidence indicates that there is protection from reinfection in the medium term, although it is still to early to say for sure. It does seem though that a vaccine will be the only hope for eradicating the virus.

Coronavirus and immunity — what the latest research says about people who already beat the disease
14 May 2020

"No human COVID-19 reinfections have been confirmed. There would actually be many opportunities for this to have happened by now...that we haven’t documented a case yet is a good sign"

"In South Korea, more than 350 people tested positive well after recovering from a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. This naturally freaked a lot of people out: It could mean that immediate reinfection was possible. But after analyzing these cases further, researchers believe these cases are due to a more mundane factor: It seems the tests were picking up the dead virus that still remained in the body. Genetic material from the measles virus, for example, can last about six months. We don’t know how long material from this coronavirus can last, but it’s at least 28 days."

"The good news: COVID-19 antibodies look likely to be helpful for at least a year. The bad news: It doesn’t look likely that the immunity is lifelong...troublingly, if the immune response lasts for only a short number of years, that means we could be facing this again relatively soon even if herd immunity is achieved. Or, perhaps more likely, we could face it for an extended period of time while people cycle in and out of immunity. That also ignores the possibility of virus mutation or recovered people still being able to transmit the disease to others. "

 

[Janus]

Why do you think?

I'm not entirely sure. Almost all flu strains have their origins in Asia due to the following characteristics:

• Seasonality: 85 percent of Asia's population lives in tropical or subtropical regions with no distinct winter, allowing continuous transmission of endemic flu strains and more opportunities for evolution of new strains.
• Host population size: This area contains more than half of the world's population. The sheer number of people could contribute a larger fraction of strains that spread globally.
• Host population turnover: Birth rates have historically been higher in these areas than other temperate regions. This may contribute to a larger number of infants and young children who are more susceptible to the flu.
• Initial conditions: H3N2 first emerged in Hong Kong in 1968. One hypothesis states that this gives the viral population an evolutionary head start, thus new epidemics will almost always begin in the area.
• Transmission rates: Differences in the transmission rate of a given virus, or the expected number of secondary cases caused by a single infection, can affect the evolution of new strains.

The US already had two spikes in influenza like illness this winter, with coronavirus being the third, which proves that they didn't get a damned thing right in terms of the vaccine for this flu season. You can't fake that level of incompetence.

The entire thing is as fishy as **** to me. I believe there is such a thing as COVID-19, and I believe that it's not the flu. But I also believe that some people who have the flu in the US are being diagnosed as having COVID-19 because it's extremely similar to certain strains of Influenza A.

Control the things you can control first, and then worry about the things you can't control.

 

[pastmyprimus]

Human Challenge Studies to Accelerate Coronavirus Vaccine Licensure

This approach could take months off traditional phase 3 trial methods in vaccine developments but it raises important ethical questions. Healthy volunteers would be given a potential vaccine then deliberately infected with coronavirus. Potential risks are severe disease and even death. To lower the risks volunteers would be drawn from previously uninfected individuals at relatively low risk of complications or mortality from the virus.

Human Challenge Studies to Accelerate Coronavirus Vaccine Licensure

Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines, reducing the

academic.oup.com

 

[OneGreatClub]

I'm not entirely sure. Almost all flu strains have their origins in Asia due to the following characteristics:

• Seasonality: 85 percent of Asia's population lives in tropical or subtropical regions with no distinct winter, allowing continuous transmission of endemic flu strains and more opportunities for evolution of new strains.
• Host population size: This area contains more than half of the world's population. The sheer number of people could contribute a larger fraction of strains that spread globally.
• Host population turnover: Birth rates have historically been higher in these areas than other temperate regions. This may contribute to a larger number of infants and young children who are more susceptible to the flu.
• Initial conditions: H3N2 first emerged in Hong Kong in 1968. One hypothesis states that this gives the viral population an evolutionary head start, thus new epidemics will almost always begin in the area.
• Transmission rates: Differences in the transmission rate of a given virus, or the expected number of secondary cases caused by a single infection, can affect the evolution of new strains.

The US already had two spikes in influenza like illness this winter, with coronavirus being the third, which proves that they didn't get a damned thing right in terms of the vaccine for this flu season. You can't fake that level of incompetence.

The entire thing is as fishy as fu** to me. I believe there is such a thing as COVID-19, and I believe that it's not the flu. But I also believe that some people who have the flu in the US are being diagnosed as having COVID-19 because it's extremely similar to certain strains of Influenza A.

Control the things you can control first, and then worry about the things you can't control.

Do you think it is the same situation in Italy, Sweden, Spain, Belgium etc?

 

[Janus]

Do you think it is the same situation in Italy, Sweden, Spain, Belgium etc?

The mortality and infection rate of those countries compared to their population base is markedly lower than the United States.

I said from the start that everyone would start easing their lockdowns as soon as the US started opening for business, which was going to be April 15 but was extended to the end of April. These are the current opening dates:

Germany - April 16
Spain - May 4
France - May 11
UK - May 13
Italy - June 3

Just like Swine Flu just disappeared in 2009 because they weren’t testing for it anymore, so will go COVID-19. There won’t be a second wave...at least, not one that is reported. In the US they are trying to prolong it so they can implement mail in voting for the election because it’s easier to commit election fraud that way with ballot harvesting etc, as well as using it as an election issue. But at the end of the day, the love of money will win out.

Speaking of money:

“China’s foreign investors have abandoned the Australian property market in droves, replaced by a surge in the number of buyers from the US.
US investment in Australian real estate soared to $19.5 billion in the 2018-19 financial year, more than three times what it was the year prior, followed by a jump in Canadian investment from $2.1 billion to $13.3 billion.”

All you need to do is follow the flow of money. It’s always about money. It shouldn’t be that way...but it just is.

 

[raptalia]

Early evidence indicates that there is protection from reinfection in the medium term, although it is still to early to say for sure. It does seem though that a vaccine will be the only hope for eradicating the virus.

Coronavirus and immunity — what the latest research says about people who already beat the disease
14 May 2020

"No human COVID-19 reinfections have been confirmed. There would actually be many opportunities for this to have happened by now...that we haven’t documented a case yet is a good sign"

"In South Korea, more than 350 people tested positive well after recovering from a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. This naturally freaked a lot of people out: It could mean that immediate reinfection was possible. But after analyzing these cases further, researchers believe these cases are due to a more mundane factor: It seems the tests were picking up the dead virus that still remained in the body. Genetic material from the measles virus, for example, can last about six months. We don’t know how long material from this coronavirus can last, but it’s at least 28 days."

"The good news: COVID-19 antibodies look likely to be helpful for at least a year. The bad news: It doesn’t look likely that the immunity is lifelong...troublingly, if the immune response lasts for only a short number of years, that means we could be facing this again relatively soon even if herd immunity is achieved. Or, perhaps more likely, we could face it for an extended period of time while people cycle in and out of immunity. That also ignores the possibility of virus mutation or recovered people still being able to transmit the disease to others. "

Andy Larsen is a Tribune sports reporter who covers the Utah Jazz. During this crisis, he has been assigned to dig into the numbers surrounding the coronavirus.

Yeah, he would be a real authority on the subject. Andy passes plenty of opinion all of it unqualified.

 

[Interstater]

I'll wait on Raina's opinion.

 

[Powerage]

How many people have died from COVID-19 in the US, supposedly? 88,000+? Funny how the rates are pretty similar, isn't it? Read the article about the patient from China. They say that Influenza A and SARS-CoV-2 had a genetic sequence that was 98.9% similar, which was why they had trouble diagnosing it correctly.

The entire thing is as fishy as fu** to me. I believe there is such a thing as COVID-19, and I believe that it's not the flu. But I also believe that some people who have the flu in the US are being diagnosed as having COVID-19 because it's extremely similar to certain strains of Influenza A.

Noooooooooo!!!

The most common testing techniques for Covid 19 vs Influenza A and B are completely different.

Covid 19 is tested for by a technique called Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). They work by detecting specific genetic material within the virus. SARS-CoV-2 has nearly 30,000 nucleotides, the building blocks that make up DNA and RNA. The test targets just 100 nucleotides that are specific to SARS-CoV-2. These 100 nucleotides include two genes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. A sample is considered positive if the test finds both genes, inconclusive if just one gene is found, and negative if neither gene is detected.

A flu test works completely differently. Rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs) are immunoassays that can identify the presence of influenza A and B viral nucleoprotein antigens. “Antigens” are molecular structures on the surface of viruses that are recognized by the immune system and are capable of triggering an immune response (antibody production). On influenza viruses, the major antigens are found on the virus' surface proteins.

So, in a nutshell. A test for Covid 19 will examine the virus genetic material and look for genes specific to SARS-CoV-2. The most common test for A or B type influenza looks at the surface of the virus. Using these two distinct testing methods they have found any number of patients who have Covid and the Flu. In fact they have found patients with the trifecta Covid Fly and the common cold.

While I agree that we will probably find after the pandemic that 'Covid deaths' when examined will be found to almost always have complicating factors such as also having the flu and/or pneumonia, as well as significant comorbidities. However assuming the correct tests are being done, flu patients are not being diagnosed with Covid and vice versa.

In the US they are trying to prolong it so they can implement mail in voting for the election because it’s easier to commit election fraud that way with ballot harvesting etc, as well as using it as an election issue.

Aren't the party who are best poised to commit election fraud be the same party who are encouraging the country to protest any lockdowns?

 

[OneGreatClub]

I'm not entirely sure. Almost all flu strains have their origins in Asia due to the following characteristics:

• Seasonality: 85 percent of Asia's population lives in tropical or subtropical regions with no distinct winter, allowing continuous transmission of endemic flu strains and more opportunities for evolution of new strains.
• Host population size: This area contains more than half of the world's population. The sheer number of people could contribute a larger fraction of strains that spread globally.
• Host population turnover: Birth rates have historically been higher in these areas than other temperate regions. This may contribute to a larger number of infants and young children who are more susceptible to the flu.
• Initial conditions: H3N2 first emerged in Hong Kong in 1968. One hypothesis states that this gives the viral population an evolutionary head start, thus new epidemics will almost always begin in the area.
• Transmission rates: Differences in the transmission rate of a given virus, or the expected number of secondary cases caused by a single infection, can affect the evolution of new strains.

The US already had two spikes in influenza like illness this winter, with coronavirus being the third, which proves that they didn't get a damned thing right in terms of the vaccine for this flu season. You can't fake that level of incompetence.

The entire thing is as fishy as fu** to me. I believe there is such a thing as COVID-19, and I believe that it's not the flu. But I also believe that some people who have the flu in the US are being diagnosed as having COVID-19 because it's extremely similar to certain strains of Influenza A.

Control the things you can control first, and then worry about the things you can't control.

Do you think it is a conspiracy or incompetence?

 

[Forzaport]

Possible Antibody Cocktail May Lead To COVID-19 Cure, Doctor Says

Sorrento CEO Dr. Henry Ji says its antibody, STI-1499, has provided 100% inhibition of the SARS-COV-2 virus in pre-clinical tests. Dr. Ji went so far as to call it a cure.

Huge if it translates to humans.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Possible Antibody Cocktail May Lead To COVID-19 Cure, Doctor Says



Huge if it translates to humans.

Long way to go yet

 

[Borscht Mat]

I don't agree with Sweden's approach to dealing with the pandemic.

Yes, it is true that Sweden is an open economy reliant on what happens in other countries. Their strategy may have been more successful if their economy was more closed and self-reliant.

However technically, if Sweden's economy is stronger right now than many other countries in Europe, then all European countries economies fall at the same rate, that would still mean Sweden's economy is still stronger comparatively.

Anyway, what I take from that article is that no-one is really going to be able to objectively assess Sweden's strategy for another year or so because there are just too many unknown variables at this point in time.

You can count all the dead old people. You can do that now.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[raptalia]

Surprise, surprise just heard on TEN News that surveys show that many on JobSeeker do not want to go back to work.

Could it be that many people, particularly part timers in the hospitality industry are earning more from JobKeeper than they were doing 20 hours a week and what is more they do not have to work shifts to get it?

 

[OneGreatClub]

Surprise, surprise just heard on TEN News that surveys show that many on JobSeeker do not want to go back to work.

Could it be that many people, particularly part timers in the hospitality industry are earning more from JobKeeper than they were doing 20 hours a week and what is more they do not have to work to get it?

No wonder they aren’t downloading the app. Same for jobseekers

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Surprise, surprise just heard on TEN News that surveys show that many on JobSeeker do not want to go back to work.

Could it be that many people, particularly part timers in the hospitality industry are earning more from JobKeeper than they were doing 20 hours a week and what is more they do not have to work shifts to get it?

I suspect its mostly because theres a pandemic happening but go off i guess

 

[Ford Fairlane]

There is still nothing you can do in face of straight up stupidity or bureaucratic incompetence.

The Rockhampton nurse who continued to go to work while waiting for her test result, which was positive.

Nurse went back to aged care facility while awaiting positive coronavirus result

All residents at a central Queensland aged care facility have so far tested negative to COVID-19, after the centre was placed in lockdown because a nurse was diagnosed with coronavirus.

mobile.abc.net.au

The NSW Health response for hospital in the home approach to the Newmarch outbreak. Surely they saw what happened on cruise ships where infected and non-infected were isolated together and created petri dishes of disease.

The perfect storm: how COVID-19 unleashed chaos inside Newmarch House

The chief of Anglicare says Newmarch House was battling desperate shortages of nursing staff and protective gear during the deadly COVID-19 outbreak.

www.smh.com.au

No wonder no one is confident about self-regulation or government regulation to control spread of the disease.

 

[Burningleviathan]

Surprise, surprise just heard on TEN News that surveys show that many on JobSeeker do not want to go back to work.

Could it be that many people, particularly part timers in the hospitality industry are earning more from JobKeeper than they were doing 20 hours a week and what is more they do not have to work shifts to get it?

Jobseeker or jobkeeper?
Jobseeker is like $500 a week
How many were surveyed and what reason did they give?
Let me guess, the subtext is that the people on those payments are lazy and/or greedy for not going back to work?

Considering that there are some in the Libs who want to end the extra payments for the dole and get rid of jobkeeper it would be no surprise that stories like these start to drop. I guess they are starting their campaign against the unemployed so they can end this support without much push back.

A lot of people about to find out what living on $40 a day feels like and everyone thinking you are scum for getting even that much.

 

[Dentshop]

Andy Larsen is a Tribune sports reporter who covers the Utah Jazz. During this crisis, he has been assigned to dig into the numbers surrounding the coronavirus.

Yeah, he would be a real authority on the subject. Andy passes plenty of opinion all of it unqualified.

Correct by meat-pie Matrix. Fake news.